Adaptive Response Strategy of Farmers to Changing Rainfall Averages in Parts of South-Eastern Nigeria

8/11/2019 Adaptive Response Strategy of Farmers to Changing Rainfall Averages in Parts of South-Eastern Nigeria

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Journal of Environment and Earth Science www.iiste.org

ISSN 2224-3216 !a"er# ISSN 222$-%&4' (nline#

)ol.4* No.16* 2%14

4$

Adaptive Response Strategy of Farmers to Changing Rainfall

Averages in Parts of South-Eastern Nigeria

+,+NIE/* +. I.

Senior 0ecturer in limate Science

e"artment of eogra"h Environmental Science* niversit of ala5ar* !..7 111$* ala5ar* Nigeria

E-ail8 idehideh9ahoo.com

+:!+N* !. +.

!rof. in eogra"h* niversit of o* Nigeria

+NI+/* E.

!rof. in eogra"h* e"artment of eogra"h Environmental Science

niversit of ala5ar. !..7 111$* ala5ar* Nigeria

(:(N* +S;( E. asu=uo4sure9gmail.com

Abstract

?he varia5le and changing nature of the annual rainfall regime in the stud area "oses the main "ro5lem for

which "lanet res"onses are needed. ?he stud is conducted with an estimated "o"ulation of si@ thousand 6%%%#

food cro""ers from +5ia* +Awa I5om and ross Biver States. ?hree thousand 3%%%# res"ondent farmers are

then drawn from si@ 6# agro-ecological Cones* two from each of the sam"le states at five hundred $%%#

res"ondents "er Cone. ?wo hundred and fift 2$%# farming households and finall sam"led from the Conesresulting in the one thousand five hundred 1$%%# sam"le that the stud is 5ased. Statistical evidence indicates

that the awareness level of the "easants to the issue is significant at the &$D level of confidence. ?he main

res"onse strategies from analsis include the a""lication of chemical fertiliCers* the use of cro" verities and

changing the time of farming. ?he main change stimuli* however are higher annual intensities and declines in the

duration. Bes"onse strategies however var significantl across the stud s"ace at &$D "ro5a5ilit. ross BiverState* the more vulnera5le to the threat is suggested to 5e the source of the significant variation following theScheffe !ost /( analsis.

ey!ords:climate change res"onse stimuli* res"onse strateg* reactive res"onse.

"#$ %ntroduction

+da"tation refers to 5oth the "rocess of ada"ting and to the condition of 5eing ada"ted. ?he term has s"ecific

inter"retations in "articular disci"lines. In ecolog for e@am"le* ada"tation refers to changes 5 which anorganism or s"ecies 5ecomes fitted to its environment 0awrence* 1&&$# whereas in the social sciences*

ada"tation refers to adustments 5 individual and the collective 5ehavior of socio-economic sstem enevan*

1&'3* /ardest 1&'3#. ?his research however follows arter et. al.* 1&&4#* I! 1&&6#> Smith et. al.* 2%%%# in

a 5road inter"retation of ada"tation to include adustment in natural or human sstems in res"onse to

e@"erienced or future climatic conditions* their effects or im"acts which ma 5e 5eneficial or adverse. +s 5oth a

"rocess and a condition* ada"tation is a relative term* involving an alternation in something the sstem ofinterest* activit* sector* communit or region# to something* the climate-related stress or stimulus#.

ost im"act and ada"tation studies to date have 5een 5ased on climate change scenarios that "rovide a

limited set of "ossi5le future climates et the climate change related stimuli for which ada"tations are undertaAen

are not limited to changes in average annual conditions as such include varia5ilit and associated e@tremes.

limatic conditions are inherentl varia5le from ear to ear and decade to decade +fangideh* +A"an anddofia* 2%12#.

)aria5ilit goes along with and is integral "art of climate change earns et. al.* 1&&F* :arl and :night*

1&&'> 7erC* 1&&&> /ulme et. al.* 1&&. ?hus ada"tation to climate change necessaril includes ada"tation of

varia5ilit /ewitt and 7urton* 1&F1> !arr et. al.* 2%%4> :ane et. al.* 1&&2#. owning et. al.* 1&&6#* EtAin 1&&'#

etc and others use the term Gclimate haCardsH to ca"ture those climate stimuli* in addition to changes in annual

averages to which the sstem of interest is vulnera5le. Natural and human sstems have ada"ted to s"atialdifferences in successions to tem"oral variations nota5l deviations from the annual average conditions on which

climate change scenarios focus. +da"tation come in a hug variet of forms> autonomous or s"ontaneousada"tations are considered to 5e those that taAe "lace invaria5l in reactive res"onse after initial im"acts are

manifested#* to a climate im"ulse or stimuli without the directed intervention of a "u5lic agenc. Estimates of


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this autonomous ada"tation are now used in im"act and vulnera5ilit assessment I!!* 2%%%#. !lanned

ada"tations can 5e either reactive or antici"ator undertaAen 5efore im"acts are a""arent%. in addition*

ada"tation can 5e short or long term* localiCed or wides"read* and the can serve various functions and taAe

numerous forms.

emonstrating the fact that ada"tive measures have the "otential to significantl alleviate adverse

im"acts of climate change and to 5enefit from o""ortunities associated with change climatic conditions*BosenCweigh and !arr 1&&4# have 5een a5le to demonstrate that with ada"tation assumed food "roduction is

increased under climate change in man regions of the world. owning 1&&1# demonstrates the "otential of

ada"tation to reduce food deficit in +frica from $% to 2%D while endelssohn and innar 1&& estimate that

"rivate ada"tation reduce "otential climate change dangers in IndiaHs agriculture from 2$ to 1$-23D.

/owever* given the fact that the glo5al environment* s"ecificall the weather and climate su5-sstem is

fluctuating and changing in res"onse to the controls as well as the anthro"ogenic forcing> su5-Saharan +frica is

listed amongst the worst hit as easil ca"tures through incessant food crises from "erennial droughts and

flooding +fangideh* +A"an* dofia and Aeh* 2%12#.!reliminar analsis of the tem"oral trends in the annual averages from rainfall and tem"erature for o* +Awa

I5om State* reveals a significantl declining tem"oral trend at &$D confidence for rainfall +fangideh and

EAanem* 2%%$* +fangideh* (A"ilia and Ea 2%1%#. + direct 5ut significant relationshi" in however esta5lished

for annual tem"erature averages and socio-economic develo"ment within the same "eriod in the stud. In

summar therefore* given the glo5al climate change "ro5lem with countries of +sia* +frica and entral +mericathe most vulnera5le to the risAs* what is the level of awareness and the res"onse o"tions to the "ro5lems 5 thevulnera5le "easant farming "o"ulace to the "ro5lem in the stud area.

"#" Study &b'ectives

?he overall aim of the stud is to esta5lish the awareness level and main res"onse strategies of food

cro" farmers. ?owards the attainment of the stated aims are the following o5ectives.

1# ?o determine the awareness level of the res"ondent food cro" farmers to rainfall changes>

2# ?o esta5lish the s"atial "attern and main res"onse strategies to the "ro5lem.

"#( Conceptual Frame!or)

?wo fundamental conce"ts are essential to the "ro"er understanding and e@"lanation of the main issues

in the stud. onsidered frameworAs are the anthro"ogenic climate change and conce"t the !iaget ermer

E=uili5rium S"ace once"tions theor.

?he anthro"ogenic conce"t of weather and climate change 5elieves that the climate had changed and is

currentl changing due to a wide range of natural factors which o"erated over a variet of time scales.

Nonetheless* with the increasing human "o"ulation and the rising levels of technolog* ur5aniCation etc etc* it is

now a""arent that over the last centur* man has "ro5a5l 5ecome a significant factor in the change.

(K?(+* 1&&%#. ?his assertion* decade latter 5ecame the ralling "oint of the nited Nations and its

su5sidiar* the orld eteorological (rganiCation (# at it conferences and meetings. +gencies of the

nited Nations such as the Inter-governmental !anel on limate change N,# the nited Nations

Environmental !rogramme on the "remise that the degradation on the Earths natural sstems* are in res"onse to

the growths and develo"ment in human "o"ulation* ur5aniCation* science and technolog. ?he continued 5urning

of fossil fuel cou"led with tro"ical deforestation* agricultural activities* ur5aniCation and industrialiCation are

adding un"recedented amount of car5ondio@ide into the atmos"here. (ut-going long-wave radiation is thus

grievous conse=uences on tem"erature and annual rainfall. onse=uentl* the increase car5ondio@ide levelsdirectl leads to increased surface tem"erature 5 5etween 1.$ and 3.%

%c while indirectl* "reci"itation is slowl

5ut steadil decreasing in su5-Saharan +frica and rising elsewhere Bamanathan* et. al.* 23%%1> Bosenfeld* 2%%%*

/enness et. al.* 1&&F#. ,igure 1#.


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r5aniCationKIndustrialiCation +gr4icultural +ctivities*

and ?rans"ortation +ctivities

Increased surface +l5edo

Beduced +5sor"tion of surface energ

Surface cooling

Beduce convective activit

Beduced annual rainfall

,ig. 18 ?he +nthro"ogenic !rocess* after oudie 1&F'#.

!iagetHs ermer E=uili5rium once"tion of S"ace ?heor

?he !iagets E=uili5rium theor !E?# of S"ace +da"tation maintained that cognitive develo"ment

human is a function of interactions 5etween the "erson and the environment. +ccording to him therefore* Gthe

Ae to learning is the conce"t of ada"tation which is the reci"rocal function of assimilation and accommodationH.

+ssimilation entails ac=uisition of Anowledge a5out the environment on the one hand* accommodation involvesthe adustment of e@isting Anowledge and facts a5out the eventual word in the light of this Anowledgeassimilated on the other hand !ococA and /udson* 1&F'#. 7oth assimilation and accommodation worA

continuousl and reci"rocall to 5ring a5out changes in the "ersons "erce"tion of the e@ternal world or his

recreation to it. 7oth "rocesses thus worA to e=uili5rium* al5eit new* 5eing the state of 5alance 5etween the two

functional stages !ocoA and /udson* 1&F'> E5ong et. al.* 2%%4#

,ig. II8 !iagets ?heor of S"ace +da"tation scheme after old* 1&''.

?he "rocess of ada"tation in other words ma 5e liAened to a su5tle mechanism which goes through gradualstages for the individual "ieces of 5ecome more sta5le 7ell et. al.* 1&&6* E5ong et al 2%%4#. ?hrough the

+t 5irth 5asis New e@"erience +ssimilation of

new

Need to solve

"ro5lem

+ccommodation

of "ast-solved

"ro5lem

evelo"ment ofhigher level

schemata

New e@"erience+ssimilation of

new

Need to solve

"ro5lem

+ccommodationof "ast-solved

"ro5lem

evelo"ment ofhigher level

schemata

!rocess continue 5 assimilation and

accommodation to develo"ment schemata

?he adult world


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cognitive "rocess of assimilation and accommodation* it must 5e em"hasiCed* the average farmer in the stud

area* is a5le to change or var his farming activities in other to ada"t to the emerging climatic environment for

sustaina5ilit. ith timel and a""ro"riative ada"tive res"onse strateg the farmer* agricultural "roductivit can

5e sta5iliCed and increased while the risA of food crises and insecurit ma 5e averted.

(#$ RESEAC* +E,*&&.&/0?his section "resents the research design* descri"tion of the stud area* "o"ulation of stud* sam"le siCe and

sam"ling "rocedures ado"ted. It also descri5es the instrumentation validation and instrument relia5ilit. ,inall*

the statistical frameworAs utiliCed for h"othesis testing and discussions.

(#" Study Area

?he stud is conducted across three states namel* +Awa I5om State* +5ia and ross Biver State* in /umid

South Eastern Nigeria* it is 5ased on the +gro-ecological Cones scul"tures from the +gricultural evelo"ment

!roects +!s# of the ,ederal overnment of Nigeria. the agro-ecological Cones of stud therefore com"rises+5aA* o* EAet* Etinan* (ron* IAot EA"ene for +Awa I5om state#* (goa* IAom ala5ar for ross Biver state#

and +5a* (hafia* muahia for +5ia State# ,ig. III. ?he maor food cro"s grown in the states are cassava* ams

garden eggs* maiCe* Telferia occidentalis#* water leaf* oAro* "e""er* afang Gnetum Africanum#. +"art from the

northern "arts of ross Biver State with the tro"ical savanna climate t"e* the other states are well within the

humid tro"ics +fangideh et.al* 2%12#,ig. III#.

,ig. III8 ?he Stud +rea

Source8 ulled from +!* 2%%2

(#( Population of Study

?he "o"ulation of this stud com"rises all the agro-ecological Cones of the three states and the corres"onding*

local government areas. onse=uentl* the twelve 12# agro-ecological Cones for +Awa I5om* +5ia and ross

Biver constituted the stud "o"ulation.

?he stud is conducted with an estimated "o"ulation of 6*%%% res"ondents $%% "er ecological Cone#.

?here are a5out 2&1* 131 farm families in ross Biver State* doh* 2%%1* B+!* 2%%%* 2%%1* 2%%2#. +lso*

342* 131 +N 21%* 236 for +Awa I5om and +5ia state res"ectivel +:+E!* 2%%2> +7+E! 2%%%#.


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(#1 Sample of Study

?he need for sam"ling in this stud results from the desire to o5tain e@ternal validit and also to eliminate

"ro5lems associated with most research such as "o"ulation siCe* cost in terms of finance* time* greater s"eed and

accurac as well as accessi5ilit to the "o"ulation I5anga* 1&&2> (suala* 2%%1#.

onse=uentl* out of the total "o"ulation of 6%%% sta"le cro" farmers* 3%%% res"ondents are drawn from

si@ 6# agro-ecological Cones two Cones from each of the three states#. ?wo hundred and fift 2$%# res"ondentsare sam"led from each agro-ecological Cone giving a total of 1$%% farmers randoml selected for the stud*

ta5le 1

?a5le 18 Selection of Bes"ondents

+gro-ecological Cone Num5er

res"ondents

(f

(hafia 2$%

muahia 2$%

+5aA 2$%

(ron 2$%

(goa 2$%

(5u5ra 2$%

?otal 1*$%%

?his sam"le re"resents 2$D of the estimated "o"ulation under stud

(#2 Sampling ,echni3ues

?he sam"ling "rocedure ado"ted for this stud is the multi-state random sam"ling techni=ue in which a"ur"osive sam"ling of two agro-ecological Cones is done initiall. In the second Cones are randoml selected

giving a total of twelve local government areas. ,ive farming communities are selected in each of the local

government areas using stratified random sam"ling techni=ue. ,rom the resulting 6% farming communities* 2$

farming house holds are randoml selected maAing a total of one thousand five hundred 1$%%# res"ondents for

the stud. ?a5le 2.

?a5le 18 ,ield ;uestionnaire +nalsis

0+ No+dmin No Beturned No Beected Nosed Dres"onse

(hafia 12$ 113 ' 1%$ '4.1%%

+rochucAwu 12$ 1%' 6 1%2 '1.6%

muahia 12$ 121 14 1%F '$.6%

Ngwa North 12$ 1%1 - 1%1 '%.6%

+5aA 12$ 114 2 112 '&.6%Aanafun 12$ 123 4 11& &$.2

(ron 12$ 1%2 6 &6 F6.'%

(Ao5o 12$ &' - &' F'.4%

(goa 12$ 111 % 11 ''.'%

(5anliAu 12$ 12% 11 1%& 'F.2%+5i 12$ 1%' $ 1%3 '2.4%

(5u5ra 12$ 123 F 116 &2.'%?otal 1$%% 1344 63 1*2F& '$.2'

Note8 + dash - # means non reected.

Source8 ,ield ata Surve* 2%%6

(#4 %nstrumentation

?his stud utiliCes the =uestionnaire* unstructured oral interview and "artici"ant o5servation methods to collectdata. + =uestionnaire can 5e referred to as a set of =uestions that are related to the "ur"ose of the stud to which

the res"ondents are to res"ond. Such structured =uestionnaire seeAs the res"ondentsH o"inion* Anowledge or

suggestion on the im"lication of changing rainfall "atterns to cro""ing in the stud area. ?he =uestionnaire

involves the close and o"en-ended format and is structured in a manner to cover all the varia5les under

investigation. ?he face-to-face method is used to administer 5ecause a"art from ensuring a high res"onse rate*

the "ossi5ilit of misinter"retation is eliminated as either the researcher or the trained field assistants are

availa5le to e@"lain what the res"ondents ma not have understood. ?he 0iAert t"e res"onse categories are"referred 5ecause a"art from other advantages* increase com"ara5ilit of res"onses in the res"ective agro-

ecological Cones are guaranteed.


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?he face-to-face inter"ersonal role situation is used 5 the interviewer to asA =uestions that are

res"onded orall.

?his techni=ue is a""ro"riate 5ecause it allows the researcher to get first hand details a5out the res"ondentHs

e@"erience and Anowledge in their res"ective Cones. /owever* information from the oral interview is seen as

useful in corro5orating the data gathered from the =uestionnaire.

(#5 6alidation of the instrument

?he =uestionnaire is tested using a "ilot stud techni=ue where the =uestionnaire is administered to 1$%

res"ondents in the si@ sam"le agr%-ecological Cones re"resenting 1%D of the res"ondents sam"le for their

res"onses. ?he essence of this "oint stud* however* is to test how it will worA and how it can 5e im"roved u"on

or modified for "roficienc. It is also to maAe sure that the =uestions are the right ones and "ro"erl worded> the

=uestions are in the right order> the right "eo"le are 5eing interviewed. +fter the e@ercise however* some

modifications are made through e@"ert counseling leading to the restrictive of some =uestionnaire items.

(#7 ata Analysis

escri"tive and interferential statistical "rocedures are heavil relied u"on for o5ectivit regarding the stud

=uestions and o5ectives. ,or instance* analsis of the res"ondents level of awareness to the "ro5lem re=uire the

"ercentage analsis of the mean res"onses and the chi-s=uare contingenc test for scientific conclusions. ?he

analsis of variance test statistic is on the other hand* utiliCed for ascertaining the significant differences e@istingin res"onse strategiCe across the stud area. ?he reection levels for 5oth h"otheses have 5een set at &$Dconfidence level.

1#$ RES8., AN %SC8SS%&N

1#" Rainfall Changes A!areness of Farmers in South-Eastern Nigeria

+ change in the annual average regime for an regime for an element of the weather and climate can taAe "lace in

one or more of the forms listed 5elow changes in the fre=uenc ?ren5erth however 5een termed the Gclimate

change stimuliH necessitating adustments within eh weather and climate sensitive sstems including agriculture

Smith and !ilfosova* 2%%1> 0!* 1&&'#.

?his section* however* analses the awareness level of food cro" farmers engaged in the farming

5usiness for u" wards of thirt ears. ?he res"ondent farmers 5usiness for u" their levels of agreement with

res"ects to the five rainfall change stimuli measured using the 0iAert scale instrument* with four assessment

scales /ighl +ware* +ware* ,airl +ware and Not +ware.

?o analCe the field data generated* fre=uenc counts and "ercentages are used. GStrongl +wareH and

+wareH res"onses have 5een colla"sed into one res"onse grou"ing L+wareM while G,airl +wareH and GNot

+wareH categor. ?a5le III +* 7* * # from the rainfall changes awareness ranAings for cro""ers in South-

eastern Nigeria* it is shown that the level of awareness for changes in the duration of the annual rainfall regime is

ranAed first among other climate change res"onse stimuli 5 the mainl humid tro"ical sam"le.

?a5le 38 Bainfall hanges +wareness +nalsis in South-eastern Nigeria

+. +Awa I5om State +wareness +ssessment

SKN Bainfall res"onse stimuli Oes No

,re= D BanA ,re= D BanA

1 hange in amount 233 $6.6 3 1'2 43.6 4

2 hange in intensit 24$ $&.6 2 1F% 41.4 $3 hange in fre=uenc 1&% 4$.2 6 23% $4.' 1

4 hange in duration 26% 62 1 1$$ 3' 6

$ hange in the s"read 1&& 4& $ 216 $2 2

6 +ll of the a5ove 211 $% 4 2%4 4& 3

7. +5ia State +wareness +ssessment



1 hange in amount 244 $1.F 3 1FF 42.1 4

2 hange in intensit 26% 61.1 2 161 3'.& $

3 hange in fre=uenc 211 $%.& 4 2%4 4&.1 3

4 hange in duration 2F% 64.1 1 1$1 3$.& 6

$ hange in the s"read 1&F 46.F $ 224 $3.3 26 +ll of the a5ove 1F$ 41.F 6 246 - 1


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. ross Biver State +wareness +ssessment



1 hange in amount 3%3 6&.F 1 133 33.3 6

2 hange in intensit 2$% $F.3 $ 1'6 42.F 2

3 hange in fre=uenc 2'% 6%.4 3 1FF 3&.4 $

4 hange in duration 2&$ 64.3 2 1F6 3$.F 3

$ hange in the s"read 2'1 64.4 4 1$$ 3$.6 4

6 +ll of the a5ove 231 $$ 6 1&F 4$.1 1

7. rand +wareness +ssessment



1 hange in amount F&% 61.F 1 4'& 3'.3 $

2 hange in intensit 6F% $3.3 4 6%% 4F.F 2

3 hange in fre=uenc 6&6 $4.4 3 $'3 4$.6 3

4 hange in duration F&% 61.F 1 4'& 3'.3 $

$ hange in the s"read F$$ $6.% 2 $24 44.% 46 +ll of the a5ove 623 4'.' $ 64F $1.2 1

Source8 ,ield ata Surve* 2%%6

States of +Awa I5om and +5ia. In the "ast few decades or so however the annual rains usuall gets well into the

month of ecem5er with a somewhat e@tension in the duration ?a5le 3+ and 7#. ,or ross Biver State* the

changes in amount* s"read and duration are the first three rainfall stimuli 5 ranAing for which the farmers are

well aware of from analsis. orres"onding fre=uencies and "ercentages are 26% 62D# and 2F%64.1D# for

+Awa I5om and +5ia States while ross Biver has 3%3 6&.FD#* 2'1 64.4D#* 2'% 64.3D#* for the first three

stimuli with highest awareness levels. ?his findings onl suggest a "ossi5le shift forward in the onset and

cassation dates to corro5ate an earlier findings 5 +fangideh et. al.* 2%%F# of late farm "re"arator activities and

"lanting of common food cro"s such as maiCe* "um"Ain* ams and cassava due to the delaed onset of the

summer rains for +5ia and +Awa I5om States. Situated almost entirel within the tro"ical savanna region

e@ce"ting the tin southern* "ortion* ross Biver is more at the risA of climate change im"acts. 0ate onset anddeclining down "ours contri5ute to "oor harvest and higher agric "roducts "rices. ?he awareness level is high

relative to the other sam"le states. (n the whole however* rainfall change res"onse stimuli with high awareness

level include the change in duration F&% 61.FD#* intensit F&% 61.FD# and s"read F$$$6D# ?a5le 3#.

?he test for statistical significance regarding the two 5road res"onse grou"ings using the data in ta5le

3 with the contingenc chi-s=uare test at &$D confidence and B-1# -1# P 6-1# 2-1# P $ degrees of freedom

is "ositive with the reection of the null h"othesis 2

c Q 2t P F1.1F Q 11.%F#.

?a5le 48 ontingenc ?a5le

% E % E

F&& K F2'.' 4'& K $$&.F

F$$ K F23.1 $24 K $$$.'

6&6 K F23.1 $'3 K $$$.'

F&% K F2'.2 4'& K $$&.&

6F% K F1'.% 6%% K $$1.&623 K F1&.2 64F K $$2.F

O2P 6.' R 1.% R $.2 R 3.2 R 12.3 R '.& R 1.F R 1.4 R '.F R 4.3 R 16.3 P F1.1F.

?he "eo"leHs awareness level of the changing annual rainfall vis--vis the change in the amount*

intensit* fre=uenc* duration and s"read is significant and in tandem with an e@"ected or theoretical "ostulates

at &$D confidence. ?he general state of "overt and the lower standard of living "revalent amongst the "easant

farming "o"ulace are seeming indicators of "oor harvest due "artl to a changing and varia5le rainfall regime

amongst other factors. hile +5ia and +Awa I5om farmers ma 5e faced with the "ro5lem of flooding and

erosion of farmlands* ross Biver counter"arts are encountering change and varia5ilit in duration and amount.

?he level of awareness is higher to the e@treme north of the state therefore.

1#( Response Strategies of farmers in Southeastern Nigeria

In analCing the ada"tive res"onses of res"ondent farmers in the stud area res"ondents are to indicate their

levels of agreement or disagreement through an assessment instrument of fifteen res"onse items. In the "rocess

however* ada"tive res"onses state 5 state are merged together thus G+greedH res"onses are added together


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resulting in G+greeH res"onses while GStrongl isagreedH and GisagreedH have also 5een merged to "roduce the

GisagreedH res"onses* ,re=uencies and "ercentages have 5een utiliCed for ease of descri"tion.

,able 4: Adaptive Response Strategies of Food Crops Farmers in Southeastern Nigeria.

SKN Bes"onse Strategies +greed D BanA is-agreed D BanA

1 hange in farm strateg $F$ 4$ 6 F%3 $$ &

2 +do"t cro" s"acing 626 4& $ 6$2 $1 1%

3 +""ease the gods 16' 13 11 111 '6 3

4 !lant ada"tive cro"s F13 $$ 4 $66 4$ 11

$ Solve susce"tive cro"s 3$& 2' & &2% F2 $

6 +""l chemical fertiliCer &$& F$ 1 32% 2$ 1$

F hange time of farming F2F $F 3 4'F 33 13

' se cro" varieties F6F 6% 2 $12 4% 12

& +""l new technologies 2F3 21 1& 1%%6 F' $

1% +do"t institutional "olicies $.F 4.$ 13 13F3 &4.F 2

11 aAe insurance "olicies 21 1.F 14 12$' &'.1 1

12 +""l moisture conserving

"ractices

F13 $$ 4 $66 4$ 11

13 /5rid selection 4%1 31.4 ' 'F' 6'.6 F

14 ro" su5stitution 4'6 3' F F&3 63 '

1$ hange occu"ation 14% 11 12 113& '3 4

16 +n other strateg Nil 14 Nil -

Source8 ,ield ata Surve* 2%%6.

escri"tive analsis reveals that a greater "ro"ortion of res"ondents $%D and a5ove# tend to agree that

three maor strategies are ado"ted namel a""lication of chemical fertiliCer F$D#> change of time of farming

$FD#* use cro" varieties 6%4D#. ?he analsis also shows that less than fift "ercent of the res"ondents a""ear

not to agree that the ado"t the remaining twelve res"onse strategies. ?he twelve res"onse strategies seldoml

used from the analsis include the change of farm strateg* ado"tion of cro" s"acing* a""easing the gods*

"lanting of ada"tive cro"s. Storing of susce"tive cro"s* a""lication of new technologies* ado"tion of institutional

"olicies* taAing of insurance "olicies* h5rid selection* cro" su5stitution and the a5andonment of farm 5usiness.?he a""lication for chemical fertiliCer for fertilit maintenance against sheet erosion in the humid states +Awa

I5om and +5ia# or nutrition enhancements in the more tro"ical ross Biver State* is shown as the single most

dominant res"onse strateg with F$D adherence. ?he use of chemical fertiliCers must 5e controlled or totall

eliminated for other environmental friendl methods e.g agro-forestr and a""lication of organic manure etc.

methane /4#* the gaseous 5 "roduct of chemical fertiliCers* is Anown to 5e three-times a green house gas than

car5ondio@ide (2#. In summar it ma 5e concluded that the res"onse strategies are either limited 5ecause of

low e@"osure to the risA or the sAill to adust is lacAing.

?he test for significant s"atial varia5ilit of the res"onses across the research s"here with the analsis of

variance test statistics suggest significant variation at &$D confidence level and N-3# P 4$ degrees of freedom

fc Q ft P 13.46 Q 2.12# ?a5le 6 +7#.

,able 5A: escriptive Statistics and AN&6A Analysis of Response Strategies# A escriptive Statistics#

Sam"le states N T S+5ia 42$ 23.&3 4.4'6

ross Biver 43& 26.1& 2.F6&&

+Awa I5om 41$ 23.'$ 4.$36

?otal 12F& 24.61 3.&31

,able 59: Anova ,able

Source of

variation

Sums of

s=uares

egrees of

freedom

ean s=uare ,-Badio !ro5a5ilit

level

7Kw 46F.62% 2 233.'1%

ithin grou" 226&4.&% 12F6 1F.F'6 13.46 %.%%1

?otal 23162.$2 12F' 2$1.$&'


9/12



)ol.4* No.16* 2%14

$3

, Batio P /igher source of variance

0ower source of variance

P 233.'1%

1F.F'%

P 13.46

?o find out the source and direction of the significant variation among the three sam"le s"ace* theSheffe !ost /( analsis is initiated with the Sheffe test.

,able 5c: Scheffe Post *&C Analysis of %nfluence of .ocation on Response Strategies#

,arm location (ne ?wo ?hree

(ne %.%%%< %.%%% iCina et al. 1&&> 7urton 1&&F#* Smith !ilifosova 2%%3#. +lso "ro"osedinclusion of develo"ment goals e.g social well-5eing instead of focusing solel on environmental management to

stimulate res"onses.

?he autonomous res"onse strateg of the "easants in the stud is reactive* after initial im"acts however

minimal* is manifest without the direct intervention 5 the government or agenc of the government. ?he

distri5utional choice of the res"onse strategies and the conclusions from the test of the res"onse strategies and

the conclusions from the test of h"othesis are most illuminating. ,ood cro" farmers from ross Biver State

a""ear to 5e at a higher risA hence the relativel higher levels of awareness and ada"tive res"onses com"areaverages and standard deviations on ?a5le 6+#. ?he other two Cones of the stud do not seem to 5e at an

serious risA e@ce"t flooding and erosion 5eing located well /umid ?ro"ics with an all-ear round moisture laden

convective activit.

2#$ Conclusion?he stud areas* e@ce"ting ross Biver State* do not seem to 5e in serious threats of the im"act of the glo5al

warming and climate change for now. ?he stud has also thrown in the initial lights on the totalit of the

Anowledge and the res"onse actions and o"tions of the res"ondents. ?here ma still 5e the urgent need however

for the economic wealth* information* sAills and technolog of the farmer in general* to 5e enhanced for a more

efficient* and "lanned res"onse actions when the real need arises. lo5al warmings and climate change issues aremerel 5een reasliCed and researched into. It ma 5e getting worst and com"le@ 5 the da if nothing concrete is

"ut in "lace to checA or counter same.

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Adaptive Response Strategy of Farmers to Changing Rainfall Averages in Parts of South-Eastern Nigeria