AFN In Transition, 2000-2010

AFN In Transition, 2000-2010AFN In Transition, 2000-2010

•Where we are…

•How we have changed…

•Where we will be…

A preliminary report compiled by the Institute for Social and Economic Research

AFN in Transition, 2000-2010

Where we are…Where we are…

A Snapshot of Alaska Natives in 2000

• Relatively young population facing unique challenges and change

• Large regional differences in demographic composition and patterns of change

• Roughly equal distribution of male and female Native Alaskans

• Large share of Alaska Natives live outside of Alaska




2000 Race /Ethnicity Question – select all appropriate ethnic backgrounds2000 Race /Ethnicity Question – select all appropriate ethnic backgrounds

6. What is this person's race? Mark [X] one or more races to indicate what this person considers himself/herself to be.O WhiteO Black, African Am., or NegroO American Indian or Alaska Native - Print name of enrolled or principal tribe._________________________O Asian IndianO ChineseO FilipinoO JapaneseO KoreanO VietnameseO Other Asian - Print race.___________________________O Native HawaiianO Guamanian or ChamorroO SamoanO Other Pacific Islander - Print race._____________________________O Some other race - Print race._____________________________


Where we are …Where we are …

2000 Population Overview

49,162 10,748

48,791 10,540

97,953 21,288

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Male (59,910)

Female (59,331)

Total (119,241)

Alaska Native and American Indian Population Living in Alaska (under two definitions), 2000

AK NATIVE OR AMERICAN INDIAN AS SOLE ETHNIC BACKGROUND

AK NATIVE OR AMERICAN INDIAN IN ADDITION TO OTHER ETHNIC BACKGROUND(S)

Source: US Census 2000 SF-2




1990 Race /Ethnicity Question – self-select a single ethnicity1990 Race /Ethnicity Question – self-select a single ethnicity

4. RaceFill ONE circle for the race that the person considers himself/herself to be. If Indian (Amer.), print the name of the

enrolled or principal tribe. If Other Asian or Pacific Islander (API), print one group, for example: Hmong, Fijian, Laotian, Thai, Tongan, Pakistani, Cambodian, and so on. If Other race, print race.

O WhiteO Black or NegroO Indian (Amer.) (Print the name of the enrolled or principal tribe.)_________________________O EskimoO AleutAsian or Pacific Islander (API)O Chinese O JapaneseO Filipino O Asian IndianO Hawaiian O SamoanO Korean O GuamanianO Vietnamese O Other API ↓____________________O Other race (Print race)_________________________


76,825

108,632

85,698

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

ANAI not reportingother ancestry

ANAI in addition toother ancestry

ANAI - Self-selected primary

race

Similar Race Category Responses, 1990

Source: US Census 1990 (SF2 and PUMS); ISER Preliminary estimates





2000 Population Overview: by region

Source: ISER




18908

14193

28400

41387

16353

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

NORTH INTERIOR SOUTHWEST

SOUTH SOUTH EAST

Regional Distribution of Alaska Native Population, 2000

Source: ISER; US Census, (2000 ANAI with one or more ethnicity)




Regional Distribution of Alaska Native Population, 2000

16%

12%

24%

34%

14%NORTH

INTERIOR

SOUTHWEST

SOUTH

SOUTHEAST

Source: ISER; US Census, (2000 ANAI with one or more ethnicity)



2000 Population Overview: by age

Alaska Native Population by Age and Region, 2000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Age

SE

South

SW

Interior

North

Source: ISER; US Census, (2000 Native with one or more ethnicity)




0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

North Interior SW South SE State

Share of Regional Native Population by Young, Middle-Aged, and Elders, 2000

0-14 15-64 65+Source: ISER; US Census




0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Age Distribution of ANAI Population, 2000

ANAI single ethnicity ANAI ancestry in addition to one or more ethnic backgrounds



Alaska Natives Living Abroad

Reported Alaska Native Tribal Affiliation by State, 2000 census*

0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000

Alaskan Athabascan (18,838)

Tlingit-Haida (22,365)

Tsimshian (3,360)

Sealaska (524)

Eskimo Tribes (9,820)

Inupiat Eskimo (19,365)

Siberian Eskimo (1,430)

Cupiks Eskimo (68)

Yup’ik (24,237)

Aleut (10,548)

Alutiiq Aleut (389)

Bristol Bay Aleut (684)

Chugach Aleut (427)

Eyak (552)

Koniag Aleut (1,800)

Unangan Aleut (2,569)

Sel

f-id

enti

fied

Tri

bal

Aff

liati

on

an

d T

ota

l Po

pu

lati

on

Population

AlaskaOther US States

*Alaska Native in combination with one or more ethnicitySource: ISER; US Census 2000 PHC-T-18


Alaska Native (only) Single Ethnic Background, 2000

77,992; 79%

20,884; 21%

Living in AK Living outside AK

Source: US Census, 2000




ANAI Single Ethnic Background, 2000

97,953; 4%

2,378,003; 96%






Alaska Native (only) in Combination with Other Ethnic Background(s), 2000

108,187; 9%

1,071,330; 91%






ANAI in Combination with Other Ethnic Background(s), 2000

119,241; 3%

4,000,060; 97%






How we have changed …How we have changed …

General trends since 1990:

• State population growth has been greater among Alaska Natives relative to non-Natives

• Regional growth rates varied, but by far the Southern region grew most rapidly – mainly due to out-migration from other regions and states

• The cohort of Alaska Natives between ages 10 and 18 now comprise the largest share of the Alaskan Native population

• The share of Alaska Natives aged 40-55 experienced the fastest growth since 1990 and comprise the second largest share of the population

• Alaska Natives aged 70-74 and 85+ grew roughly at an annual rate of 6%



General trends since 1990:

• Population distribution between males and females has remained relatively constant

• Infant Mortality rates have declined but large regional differences persist among Alaska Natives and infant mortality rates remain double non-Native infant mortality

• Alaska Natives are increasingly multi-ethnic

• Changes in the 2000 census invalidate Alaska Native population growth statistics based on straightforward comparisons to the 1990 census; the choice of a bridging method will strongly influence the statistics used in determining Federal and State appropriations



Statewide Population Growth

2.7

1.2

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

perc

ent

Native Grow th Rate Non-Native Grow th Rate

Estimated 1990-2000 Annual Population Growth Rates

Source: US Census - ISER preliminary estimates



Regional Population Growth

Estimated Annual Regional Growth of ANAI Population, 1990-2000

5.5%

1.2%

1.8%1.8%1.7%

NORTH INTERIOR SW SOUTH SE

Statewide Growth of Native Population: 2.7%

Source: US Census - ISER preliminary estimates



Population Change by Age: all ages

Alaska Natives by Age as Percent of Total ANAI Population, 1990-2000

0.0%

0.5%1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%3.0%

3.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Age

Pe

rce

nt

2000 1990

Source: US Census, (2000 Native with one or more ethnicities); ISER



Population Change by Age: all ages and gender




Population Change by Age: all ages and gender




Population Change by Age: 5 year cohorts

ANAI Estimated Annual Growth Rate by 5 Year Cohorts, 1990-2000

-2.0%

-1.0%

.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

age cohortSource: US Census - ISER preliminary estimates



Population Change by Age: young, old, and elders

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

pe

rce

nt

North Interior SW South SE State

Estimated Annual Regional Growth Rates by Age, Alaska Natives, 1990-2000

0-14 15-64 65+Source: US Census - ISER preliminary



Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Infant Mortality

Statewide Trend in Infant Mortality, Native and Non-Native

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Dea

ths

per

1,00

0 Li

ve B

irths

Native Non-Native

Source: ISER preliminary estimates; AK Vital Statistics


Infant Mortality by Region Nine Year Average

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Dea

ths

per

1,00

0 liv

e bi

rths

Native Non-Native

Source: ISER preliminary estimates; AK Vital Statistics




Trends in Native Infant Mortality by Region (3 year average)

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999Dea

ths

per

1,00

0 Li

ve B

irths

Interior North South Southwest Southeast

Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics




Trends in Non-Native Infant Mortality by Region

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Dea

ths

per 1

,000

Liv

e B

irths

Interior North South Southwest Southeast

Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census AK Vital Statistics





Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Life Expectancy

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

Age

Alaska Native Life Expectancy at Birth, (1990-1999)

67.9 69.1 70.1 71.0 74.1 70.4 74.3 66.5 74.9

North Interior SW South SE NativeNative Female

Native Male

All Alaskans

Source: ISER preliminary estimate: US Census: Alaska Vital Statitsitcs



Changes in Mortality and Fertility: General Fertility Rate

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

live

birt

hs p

er 1

000

fem

ales

be

twee

n ag

es 1

5-44

General Fertility Rate by Region, Alaska Natives, 1990-1999

138.5 87.5 142.3 91.7 81.4 108.3 58.9

North Interior SW South SEAlaska Native

Non Native

Source: ISER P reliminary Estimates; US Census; AlaskaVital Statistics



Migration

Estimated Annual Regional Growth of ANAI Population, 1990-2000

5.49%

1.24%1.79%1.78%1.73%


Statewide Growth of Native Population: 2.68%




Migration

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000


Estimated Net-Migration by Region, Alaska Natives:1990-2000




Migration

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84

Southern Region: Estimated Net Migration, Alaska Natives, 1990-2000



Where we will be …Where we will be …

What can we expect in 2010 and beyond:

• A large increase in the share of 19-29 year olds – these changes will likely lead to:– Large wave of new entrants into the labor force

– New “baby boom”

– Less of a demand for elementary education between 2000-2010, but growing demand after 2010

– Greater demand for higher education

• A large increase in 40-60 year olds - this change implies:– Large Alaska Native labor force – without adequate labor

demand in rural areas out-migration and unemployment can be expected to increase

– Growth of Alaska Native retirees after 2010

• An increasing share of multi-ethnic Alaskan Natives


Where we will be …

State: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

Actual Population 2000 (ME)

Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)

Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics



North: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+






Interior: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+






Southwest: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+






South: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+






Southeast: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+




Documents

AFN In Transition, 2000-2010