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www.airlines.org [email protected]. NET INCOME. U.S. Scheduled Airlines. $ Billions. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. EXPECTED. -2. -3. -4. 9/11 IMPACT. -5. -6. -7. -8. 80. 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. 99. 00. 01. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 2: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

NET INCOMEU.S. Scheduled Airlines

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

$ Billions

EXPECTED

9/11IMPACT

Page 3: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

TRAFFIC GROWTHPercent Change in Revenue Passenger Miles

J 1999F M A M J J A S O N DJ 2000F M A M J J A S O N DJ 2001F M A M J J A S O N D

0

5

10

15

-5

International

Domestic

Y2K- 6.5 Million Passengers

Page 4: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

TRAFFIC GROWTHPercent Change in Revenue Passenger Miles

Jan 1999F M AM J J A S O N DJan 2000F M AM J J A S O N DJan 2001F M AM J J A S O N DJan 2002F M A

0

10

-10

-20

-30

-40

International

Domestic

Page 5: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

LOAD FACTORPercent of Seats Filled

59.0

60.759.2

61.460.3

62.3 62.563.2

62.4 62.663.6 63.5

66.267.0

69.370.3 70.9 71.1

72.4

70.0

72.3

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Breakeven

Fo

rec

as

t

Page 6: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

BLOCK HOURS PER DAY PER AIRCRAFTPassenger Service

91 1 92 1 93 1 94 1 95 1 96 1 97 1 98 1 99 1 00 1 01 1 8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

- 15%

Page 7: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

CHANGE IN CAPACITY BY AIRCRAFT SIZEU.S. Majors and Nationals

-17.6

-13.1

-15.5

-12.8

289 Seatsper Aircraft

187 Seats 142 Seats 112 Seats

20.9%of

Traffic

25.0%of

Traffic

26.5%of

Traffic

27.5%of

Traffic

Page 8: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

CHANGE IN CAPACITY BY AIRCRAFT FUEL EFFICIENCY

U.S. Majors and Nationals15.9

-8.9

-28.9-33.4

46.5 RPMsper Gallon

40.0 RPMs/Gal 35.7 RPMs/Gal 28.6 RPMs/Gal

34.7%of

Traffic

21.9%of

Traffic

19.5%of

Traffic

23.9%of

Traffic

Page 9: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

Jet Airplanes vs. Capacity (ASMs)U.S. Airlines

Source: World Jet Inventory

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 20014,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000Thousands

200019991998

Aircraft

ASMs

AIRPLANES ASMs

Page 10: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

AIRCRAFT ORDERS AND OPTIONSATA U.S. Members

Dec 90Jun 91Dec 91Jun 92Dec 92Jun 93Dec 93Jun 94Dec 94Jun 95Dec 95Jun 96Dec 96Jun 97Dec 97Jun 98Dec 98Jun 99Dec 99Jun 00Dec 00Jun 01Dec 01

Options

Firm Orders

2,748 1,937

Page 11: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

EXPECTED DELIVERY DATESATA Members

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Firm

Orders

Options

Page 12: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

U.S. AIRLINE 2001 JET FLEETBy Year of Delivery to Original Owner

<65

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

20000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

5,538 Aircraft(excl Regional Jets)

Source: Jet Information Services

6,507 Aircraft

Page 13: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

AVERAGE AGE OF FLEET

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 0112.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Source: The Airline Monitor

Page 14: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

FUEL PRODUCTIVITYPassenger Miles per Gallon

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Page 15: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

JET FUEL PRICE TRENDSExcludes taxes

Jan 1996

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan 1997

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan 1998

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan 1999

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan 2000

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan 2001

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan 2002

Apr

Jul

Oct

30

45

60

75

90

105Cents per Gallon

10

15

20

25

30

35$ per Barrel

WTI(Right Scale)

JET FUEL(Left Scale)

Fo

reca

st

Page 16: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

LABOR COSTS PER EMPLOYEEWages and Benefits

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002e35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75$ Thousands

$42.4

1986-2001Compensation Annual Growth Rate +3.6%CPI Annual Growth Rate +3.2%

68.6

71.9

75.5

64.8

Page 17: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

PRICE TRENDSSystem Revenue per Passenger Mile

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,0.5

1,1.0

1,1.5

1,2.0

1,2.5

1,3.0

1,3.5

1,4.0Cents

2002 2001

2000

2001 - 7.6%2000 + 4.4%1999 - 1.3%

2000

2001

$5 Bill.

2002

Page 18: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

REVENUE TRENDSBusiness vs. Personal/Pleasure

Preliminary Data

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

0

10

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60Business Personal

Percent

2001 2002

Page 19: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

BUSINESS VS. PERSONAL / PLEASURE2001 Revenue & Traffic Shares

2001

Revenue TrafficPreliminary Data

Business

Page 20: airlines dswierenga@airlines

OUTLOOK

Page 21: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

CURRENT TRAFFIC TRENDS COMPARED TO GULF WAR

0

10

20

-10

-20

-30

-40

Percent Change

2001 1990/91 System 1990/91 International

Gulf War Intl

Gulf War System

FEB ‘91

SEP ‘01

Page 22: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

TRAFFIC GROWTH COMPARED TO GDPAnd Forecast for 2001 and 2002

1993 1 1994 1 1995 1 1996 1 1997 1 1998 1 1999 1 2000 1 2001 1 2002 1

0

5

-5

-10

-15

GDP Percent

0

10

-10

-20

-30

Traffic Percent

Page 23: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

NET PROFIT MARGINU.S. INDUSTRY VS. AIRLINES

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02e

0

5

-5

AIRLINES

U.S. INDUSTRY

Percent

Page 24: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

CASH FLOWFour Quarter Moving Total

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-2

$ BillionsMajors and Nationals

FO

RE

CA

ST

02/402/302/202/101/401/301/201/100/400/300/200/199/499/399/299/198/498/398/298/197/497/397/297/196/496/396/296/195/495/395/295/194/494/394/294/193/493/393/293/192/492/392/292/191/491/391/291/190/490/390/290/189/489/389/289/188/488/388/288/187/487/387/287/186/486/386/286/185/485/385/285/184/484/384/284/183/483/383/283/182/482/382/282/181/481/381/281/180/4

Page 25: airlines dswierenga@airlines

Air Transport Association May 21,2002

AIRLINE BALANCE SHEETSDebt as a Percent of Total Capital

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001p

2002e20

30

40

50

60

70Percent

AIRLINES

U.S. INDUSTRY