Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-87-Daesh-Future Works

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, only share if Confidence is guaranteed..

Those that dig a hole for others are likely to fall into it themselves.

The Saudis may have created a monster that is likely to bite them as well -- ISIS plans to destroy “Zionist regime” in Israel – with nukes if necessary -- We will conquer Rome -- ISIS has announced that Lebanon will be the next state to fall under the sway of its “caliphate.”-- The Islamic State awaits the army of “Rome,” whose defeat at Dabiq -- Recent Raid Yields ‘ISIS Manifesto: 100-Year Plan for a World Khilafah

Cees, this is a follow-up of my: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-106-Caliphate-Grand-Plan. The two fold document’s one regarding AQ, the other Daesh the so far seen stated future plans and intent. It may seem as, let me use the words again as posted in 2007 when the AQSL 2020 plan came to known to the public: Ridicule, a Fantasy, far fletched, a pipe-dream, etc. Additionally it’s not only in the written texts, lately we learned that the backgrounds songs in propaganda video’s are equal important: The execution video of Jordanian pilot was accompanied with the song which released from the Media Office of ISIS, serves as intimidation and threat to all who participated in international alliance, the song has started by describing the conflict as a terrible, and that the battles with these countries, will be in their own home, in different ways including slaughter and blasting on the hands of its fighters. And if we have learned from the past, if we in the West would have paid attention to Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf,… we should not underestimate these current statements, be it AQ or Daesh. Both doc’s will be limited distributed for now, at least we should take notice and think the What if the unthinkable become’s reality.

WASHINGTON -- Before Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became what many consider the world's most powerful terrorist, he was in U.S. custody. U.S. forces released Baghdadi from an Iraqi prison in 2009 after four years in captivity. His reported parting words to American troops? "I'll see you guys in New York 1." ------- 6 Aug 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The ideological purity of the Islamic State has one compensating virtue: it allows us to predict some of the group’s actions. Osama bin Laden was seldom predictable. He ended his first television interview cryptically. CNN’s Peter Arnett asked him , “What are your future plans 2?” Bin Laden replied, “You’ll see them and hear about them in the media, God willing.” By contrast, the Islamic State boasts openly about its plans—not all of them, but enough so that by listening carefully, we can deduce how it intends to govern and expand.

Lamb explains that the final “S” in the acronym “ISIS” relates to the Arabic word “al-Sham” which itself is variously used to refer to the Levant, Syria or even Damascus. But DAASH (ISIS) means the Levant or Eastern Mediterranean including Cyprus, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, and southern Turkey.

---- Franklin Lamb, writing for Media With Conscience was afforded an opportunity to interview members of the Islamist army, who clearly laid out their frightening plans.

1 http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/August/See-You-In-New-York-Jihadists-Plans-for-America/2 http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

Man tortured by #ISIS warns plans for future attacks on America are biochemical or nuclear, and dwarfs 9/11 3. ‘More Brutal’ Than 9/11: Man Tortured By ISIS Now Reveals What Terrorist Group Has in Store Next; He told NBC News that ISIS was pleased at the bombing campaign by the U.S. and its allies, because they believe it makes them equivalent to their rival, Al-Qaeda: “They want to be more . . . better than al-Qaeda,” he told Engel. “This is why they need to do something more brutal than the World Trade Center.” Rashidi said what ISIS plans for its next attack will be devastating: “Because when the Islamic State attacks, they will be big. It’ll be very, very, big.” “They was full of hate… you can see fire in, in the eyes. They was full of hate. If you smell like European, they’re gonna kill you.”

--- Ahmad Rashidi has just escaped after spending a month with ISIS.

In March 2014, the home of an Islamic State (IS) commander was raided by Iraqi Special Forces. Among the items found in the residence was a manifesto written by what appears to be the Islamic State Cabinet Member, Abdullah Ahmed al-Meshedani, aka Abu Kassem.

July, 2014 4 The Saudis may have created a monster that is likely to bite them as well. Should the ISIS invade Saudi Arabia, it will be a fight of a lifetime. Muslims will have a ringside view of a blood-curdling duel between ideological twins. The group has hinted that it plans to move west toward Saudi Arabia. Should that materialize, it will be a totally different ballgame. In 2006, the terrorist group Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) blew up the Askari Mosque almost triggering a sectarian war. This is precisely what the Saudis and other backers of the terrorists want. It is, however, ISIS’s presence on the border with Jordan and Saudi Arabia that has caused anxiety about what could happen next. ( The image 5 (above) shows territory in Iraq and Syria currently held by ISIS with arrows indicating future expansion into Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, there are no arrows pointing into the Shiite-majority southern Iraq) Messages from ISIS have appeared on the Internet claiming they are on the border with Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, another message from ISIS member/supporter countered: “We are not on the border. We are here in Saudi and this is our land.” The ISIS adheres to the same ideology—Wahhabism—that is imposed in Saudi Arabia. The only difference is this group’s interpretation is even more extreme. It is not difficult to imagine what would happen if ISIS were to make a push into Saudi Arabia? Since it has already penetrated the armed forces and the regime is extremely unpopular, many ordinary Saudis would not only welcome them but also join them. This would trigger two responses from the regime: first, the Saudi National Guards would be mobilized against them pitting Saudis against one another. Second the regime would immediately turn to its only reliable ally: the Pakistan army to protect it.

If these two developments were to materialize, here is the messy scenario that would emerge. ISIS ranks are filled with mercenaries from all over the world including Chechnya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan etc.

3 http://www.ijreview.com/2015/01/239080-more-brutal-911-says-man-tortured-isis/4 http://www.crescent-online.net/2014/07/isis-have-guns-will-fight-even-in-saudi-arabia-zafar-bangash-4534-articles.html5 http://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/isis-next-targets-jordan-and-saudi-arabia

"We will conquer Rome, God willing." The execution of 21 Egyptian Christians by militants in Libya proclaiming allegiance to Islamic State was an announcement that the group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has spread from Syria and Iraq to Libya; Their masked leader turns to the Mediterranean and points a bloodied knife towards Europe, declaring, "We will conquer Rome, God willing 6." The video, titled "A Message Signed With Blood to the Nation of the Cross," claims to target the "hostile Egyptian church" to avenge "Muslim women persecuted by Coptic crusaders in Egypt." The video was allegedly shot in Libya on "the coast of Wilayat Tarabulus by the Mediterranean Sea." In the footage, a masked militant addresses the camera, claiming that the when the blood of the Christians enters the sea it will be mixed with the blood of Osama Bin Laden. At the end, the camera pans out to show blood in the water. The Islamic State awaits the army of “Rome,” whose defeat at Dabiq – Aleppo - , Syria, will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse.

Musa Cerantonio, an Australian preacher makes a case that Rome meant the Eastern Roman empire, which had its capital in what is now Istanbul. We should think of Rome as the Republic of Turkey—the same republic that ended the last self-identified caliphate, 90 years ago. Other Islamic State sources suggest that Rome might mean any infidel army, and the Americans will do nicely. The Islamic State awaits the army of “Rome,” whose defeat at Dabiq – current day Allepo --- C:

24 June 2014, ISIS plans to destroy “Zionist regime” in Israel – with nukes if necessary 7. One thing about the advance of ISIS is the deathly silence from our best ally in the Middle East, Israel. What concerns me is that the U.S. seems to believe time is on our side relating to ISIS – and we’re not taking this sophisticated threat seriously. I pray Israel is.It’s always helpful to gain a window into the enemy by reading the enemies’ words. Franklin Lamb, writing for Media With Conscience was afforded an opportunity to interview members of the Islamist army, who clearly laid out their frightening plans.He writes, “One need not be prescient to understand the unfolding “Jihadi Spring” is fueling the plans and perhaps destiny of ascendant Islamists in this region with the increasing help of in-country nationalists, including remnants of the Iraqi Baath Party. This, according to more than a dozen ardent supporters of The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), known locally as DAASH, whose representatives allowed this observer over the past six months to interview some of its supporters.”

Lamb explains that the final “S” in the acronym “ISIS” relates to the Arabic word “al-Sham” which itself is variously used to refer to the Levant, Syria or even Damascus. But DAASH (ISIS) means the Levant or Eastern Mediterranean including Cyprus, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, and southern Turkey. ISIS has just announced that Raqqa, the only one of 14 Governorates its controls in Syria, is now the “Capital” of their emerging “Caliphate” which so far is a swathe of territory encompassing much of eastern and

northern Syria and western and northern Iraq. The Emir is to be their military strategist and leader and successor of Abu Mus‘ab Zarqawi, Dr. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

6 https://news.vice.com/article/islamic-state-threatens-to-conquer-rome-in-gruesome-video-that-shows-21-beheadings 7 http://allenbwest.com/2014/06/isis-plans-destroy-zionist-regime-israel-nukes-necessary/

What we fail to comprehend is that an Islamic caliphate is a borderless empire ruled by a singular leader under strict Islamic law, the Koran. It does not respect secular leadership, as we are witnessing in Libya, Syria, and elsewhere in the Islamic world. In Egypt, the removal of the Muslim Brotherhood set back their march towards being a part of an Islamic caliphate — which our own Secretary of State has problems understanding.

So what does ISIS think of Israel’s existence? Lamb says jihadist recruiters working with a claimed new specialized DAASH unit organized at the beginning of 2013 are “focusing exclusively on destroying the Zionist regime occupying Palestine.” DAASH’s “Al Quds Unit” (AQU) is currently working to broaden its influence in more than 60 Palestinian camps and gatherings from Gaza, across Occupied Palestine, to Jordan, and Lebanon up to the north of Syria seeking to enlist support as it prepares to “liberate” Palestine.How in God’s name did the Obama administration not see this coming? This may be one of the greatest intelligence failures in American history. President Obama referred to this as “whack-a-mole” — hardly, this is not just some terrorist organization, it is an army with a structure. It is no different from Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza.A DAASH member supposedly claims, “Zionists call us masked, sociopathic murderers but we are much more complicated and representative of those seeking justice than they portray us. Are we more barbaric than the Zionist terrorists who massacred at Dier Yassin, Shatila twice at Qana, and committed dozens of other massacres? History will judge us after we free Palestine.” DAASH claims it can do the job in 72 months.

Recent Raid Yields ‘ISIS Manifesto: 100-Year Plan for a World Khilafah 8’ The United Sunni States: 2114 by, Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium | RT NewsIn March 2014, the home of an Islamic State (IS) commander was raided by Iraqi Special Forces. Among the items found in the residence was a manifesto written by what appears to be the Islamic State Cabinet Member, Abdullah Ahmed al-Meshedani, aka Abu Kassem. Reportedly the director of foreign fighter and suicide bomber transport, little is known about al-Meshedani’s present life. Based on these documents, however, TRAC analysts have garnered a rare glimpse not only into his vision for the Islamic State but also the Islamic State’s current and future plans.As much mystery that surrounds the Islamic State, there is equally as much complexity that surrounds this manifesto. Signed off on the final page by Abu Kassem’s alias “al-Mashhadani al-Iraqi,” the document reads like a hybrid between Islamic State goals and ex-Baathist and Republican Guard concepts left over from Saddam Hussein’s era. The documents are extremely well written with a high command of Arabic often reserved for and used by accomplished scholars. The writings are not necessarily religious but show a mastery of military knowledge and Arab nationalism.

8 https://shariaunveiled.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/recent-raid-yields-isis-manifesto-100-year-plan-for-a-world-khilafah/

ONE HUNDRED YEARS ONWARD; The copy of Abu Kassem’s manifesto that TRAC holds is merely a portion of the original work; thirteen pages are in tact, spanning from page 19 to page 40; some sections were missing or too blurred to decipher. Beginning on page 19, the document has three distinct topics that intertwine to create an unprecedented insight into the Islamic State’s policy, economics and goals. What is particularly of note is the manner in which the Islamic State views itself both in the near and long term. The term “United Sunni States” is a reference to these goals that cross into a hundred years in the future and include seventy (70) objectives. Another area of interest is how the manifesto is presented and shared. Unlike the previous declarations found at the home of Islamic State Cabinet member and Baghdadi’s Head of the Military Council, Adnan Ismael Najim Abdulla al-Dulaimi aka Abu Abdul Rahman al-Bilawi’s residence, which were found on a thumb drive, Abu Kassem’s work was printed out. Once spiral bound, the manifesto is typed and chaptered, demonstrating this document was clearly meant for a distribution among the entire Islamic State senior staff.ABU KASSEM’S MANIFESTO CHAPTERS:

• The General Leadership and the nature of the relationship between the military and political wings

• The Ideological Leadership of the movement, its relationship with the General Leadership and society

• Economic Institutions – Resources and Industries• The Economic Assets of the Sunni Entity• We are the Campaign of the Banners and we are the new Umayyads• The great Safavid enterprise… The challenges of war and the tools of Arab defence

(The 100 Year Plan)• How we will establish our war against the great Safavid enterprise• The obstacles of establishing the project

Though this is a partial work, the potential new understandings of the Islamic State gained from Abu Kassem are of paramount importance.– – –

The Russian-Iranian Nuclear Ambition: An alleged policy plan of the Islamic State outlines some chilling, if unrealistic, plots of the would-be terrorist state, including bribing Russia with access to oilfields in exchange for nuclear technology, and digging a canal across the UAE.The document reported by Britain’s Sunday Times 9 is believed to have been written by Abdullah Ahmed Meshedani, a member of the highly secretive six-man war cabinet of the terrorist group, which wants to build an Islamist state, or caliphate, in parts of Iraq and Syria.It was captured by Iraqi special forces during a March raid on the home of a senior Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) member and confirmed as authentic by Western security officials.The 70-point plan provides an insight into the grandiose, if somewhat far-fetched, strategy aimed at undermining Shiites in the Arab world and Iran as that branch of Islam’s powerhouse nation. One of the goals listed in the documents is to offer Russia access to oilfields in Iraq’s Anbar province in exchange for Moscow severing ties with Tehran and sharing secret nuclear technology known to Iran with the IS. The bribe is also meant to convince the Russian government to stop supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad and ally with Sunni states of the Arab Gulf in their confrontation with Iran and Syria. A security source familiar with the

9 http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/article1467470.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_05

document told the newspaper, “Nothing shocks Western governments these days in relation to ISIS and its fanatical aspirations. “We’ve known and feared for some time that they want to obtain chemical and nuclear weapons… So when you place their future aspirations against their current achievements, this document which purports to be the group’s manifesto does stop and make you think.”Another bizarre plan to undermine Iran’s powerbase involves building a canal across the United Arab Emirates “like the Panama Canal in America’s hands,” which would allow oil tankers travel to and from the Persian Gulf, bypassing the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz, the newspaper reports. In addition to the Iranian nuclear program, the document suggests hitting its caviar industry “because it is a national treasure,” and urges to flood the carpet market with products of Afghan carpet makers to cripple their Iranian competitors.The IS also envisions itself as a regional naval power, with bases built on islands bought from Yemen and the Comoros.Domestically, the self-proclaimed state has a program of ethnic cleansing, eugenic programs, assassinations of defectors – including IS officials – and other brutal policies that would ensure a population united in purpose, according to the document.The caliphate’s security for foreign forces would be provided by targeted hits on senior officials and officers in Iran and Iraq as well as attacks of any armed Shiite groups.

• In the long run, the IS wants Sunnis from Pakistan and Syria to migrate to lands with mixed Sunni-Shiite populations, “marry early and have many children,” who would become the core of a future extermination campaign to wipe out Shiites in the Gulf.

The IS “are not focused on merely supporting themselves with ransom activities and oil theft, they know that in order to survive they have to generate income in legitimate ways,” Veryan Khan, director of Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium, a US-based terrorism monitoring group, told the Sunday Times.

• “I am convinced this was passed out among senior personnel of Islamic State,” she added. “To fully explain a 100-year plan is completely unique — they are proving that they are visionaries to the rest of the senior staff.”

Oct 2014 10, An alleged policy plan of the Islamic State outlines some chilling, if unrealistic, plots of the would-be terrorist state, including bribing Russia with access to oilfields in exchange for nuclear technology, and digging a canal across the UAE.The document reported by Britain’s Sunday Times is believed to have been written by Abdullah Ahmed Meshedani, a member of the highly secretive six-man war cabinet of the terrorist group, which wants to build an Islamist state, or caliphate, in parts of Iraq and Syria. It was captured by Iraqi special forces during a March raid on the home of a senior Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) member and confirmed as authentic by Western security officials.

The 70-point plan provides an insight into the grandiose, if somewhat far-fetched, strategy aimed at undermining Shiites in the Arab world and Iran as that branch of Islam’s powerhouse nation. One of the goals listed in the documents is to offer Russia access to oilfields in Iraq’s Anbar province in exchange for Moscow severing ties with Tehran and sharing secret nuclear technology known to Iran

10 http://rt.com/news/193428-isis-plan-russia-nuclear/

with the IS. The bribe is also meant to convince the Russian government to stop supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad and ally with Sunni states of the Arab Gulf in their confrontation with Iran and Syria

29 Aug 2014, A laptop found in a hideout of the Islamic State reveals the militant group is planning on achieving mass casualties by unleashing the bubonic plague 11.The computer was recovered by a commander of the Syrian opposition after his men stormed a building the Islamic extremists had just fled. The rebel leader then turned the laptop over to two investigative journalists who discovered a 19-page document detailing how to make and test a weaponized version of the plague.According to Foreign Policy, the document reads,The advantage of biological weapons is that they do not cost a lot of money, while the human casualties can be huge. It also says that the disease would be harvested from dead animals and first tested on small mice, continuing, When the microbe is injected in small mice, the symptoms of the disease should start to appear within 24 hours.Information on the laptop states that it belonged to Tunisian chemistry and physics student known only as Muhammed S.< Other files on the computer include videos of Osama bin Laden, manuals on how to make bombs, instructions for stealing cars and a list of disguises that could hide a militant’s identity from police.Jennifer Cole, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Daily Mail that this bubonic plague plan is just a fantasy, no matter how confident the militants may be.She explained: This is nothing a security analyst wouldn’t expect to find on a jihadist laptop. We’ve seen it time and time again. Plus, biological weapons are extremely unpredictable and their spread cannot be predicted or controlled. This is why regimes and terrorist groups have been so reluctant to use them. They are slow acting, can’t be geographically contained and are as likely to hurt you as the enemy. That’s why, while lots of groups look into them, none ever use them.She added that even if the bubonic plague were to emerge, it can be treated with easily accessible antibiotics. The discovery comes after the Islamic State released a series of videos showing the execution of hundreds of Syrian troops and the beheading of a Kurdish soldier.

Daily Mail. “As we move into 2015 (ISIS releases moms’ guidebook to raising ‘jihadi babies’)12, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, ISIS, and other jihadi groups worldwide continue to invest a lot of effort in indoctrination of the next generation of fighters.” The Islamic State has released a guidebook for young mothers with “helpful tips” on how to raise a Mujahid Child, outlining techniques they believe will develop the body and jihadi spirit of the new generation of extremist fighters. Entitled Sister’s Role in Jihad, the latest propaganda move by

11 http://elitedaily.com/news/world/isis-developing-bubonic-plague/733809/12 http://rt.com/news/219127-isis-jihadi-baby-guidebook/

the extremist organization tries to convince their loyal followers that the “most important” role women can play in Jihad is to raise their kids “not only in spirit”, but also to develop their physical ability and training. The key to success, IS argues lies in introducing these values in them while they are babies. “Don't wait until they are seven to start, for it may be too late by then!,” the handbook that recently surfaced online states. In order to get children “interested in jihad” and encourage them to “become like Mujahideen” the handbook suggests “getting military books (preferably with pictures) and other similar books, CDs, videos, and by visiting web sites along with your children, and utilizing other internet resources.” (Cees seee my: Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2014 Part 4-1- TB-21- madrassa accused of radicalising women, The role of women in jihad, as caregivers or fighters, as raisers of children or suicide bombers, is a contentious point amongst male and female jihadists. It’s not really a new thing using, utilizing woman in whatever way in the jihad and their propaganda. More worrying them – those we fall prey to the salafists ideology could be mislead to grows the next generation of potential fighters, a sensitive discussion anyway.

ISIS has announced that Lebanon will be the next state to fall under the sway of its “caliphate.” According to Beirut's Daily Star newspaper, the only reason ISIS hasn't attacked yet in force is because they haven't decided on the mission's commander. The Lebanese army is one of the least effective in the Middle East—and that's saying something in a region where the far more capable Syrian and Iraqi armies are utterly failing to safeguard what should be their own sovereign territory. So France is going to send a three billion dollar package of weapons to Lebanon and the Saudis are going to pay for it. It won't solve the problem any more than a full-body cast will cure cancer, but it beats standing around and not even trying. It may seem surprising at first that Riyadh is willing to fund a Lebanese Maginot Line. Saudi Arabia is the most culturally conservative Arab country and Lebanon is the most liberal, partly because of its one-third Christian minority, but also because Lebanon's Sunni Muslims are, for the most part, Mediterranean merchants rather than isolated desert-dwellers. They've been exposed to cosmopolitan ideas and culture for centuries while most Saudis outside the Hejaz region on the Red Sea have been hermetically sealed off from the wider world and its ways for millennia. A serious invasion of Lebanon by ISIS could unleash a bloodbath that makes the civil war in Syria look like a bar fight with pool sticks and beer mugs. It would be tantamount to a Nazi invasion. Every family in Lebanon is armed to the gills thanks to the state being too weak and divided to provide basic security, but people anywhere in the world facing psychopathic mass-murderers will fight with kitchen knives and even their fingernails and teeth if they have to. The only good thing that might emerge from an attempted ISIS invasion is that the eternally fractious Lebanese might finally realize they have enough in common with each other to band together for survival and kindle something that resembles a national identity for the first time in their history. Foreign armies don't do well in Lebanon over the long term.

To Topple the Throne: Islamic State Sets Its Sights on Saudi ArabiaPublication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 5March 6, 2015 By: Chris Zambelis

King Salman and Saudi Arabia have moved up on the Islamic State's list of targets (Source: DoD Flickr).The meteoric rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which has since styled itself the Islamic State in an affirmation of its broader aspirations of dominion over a self-declared caliphate beyond the territories where it

exercises control, has aggravated the Middle East’s already treacherous geopolitical landscape. Having emerged out of conflict and instability in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State has arguably matched or otherwise exceeded the capabilities of fellow extremist groups such as al-Qaeda, its regional affiliates and other violent Islamist organizations. Despite its recent setbacks—notably in Syria’s Kurdish-majority town of Kobane (a.k.a. Ayn al-Arab), located in the northern Aleppo province—the Islamic State has demonstrated an impressive ability to capture, control and consolidate its hold on territory and sustain its insurgent and support cadres. It also operates a sophisticated information and propaganda wing that exploits social media as a force multiplier alongside its scorched earth campaign. It has also drawn support from independent sympathizers and ideological allies throughout the broader Middle East and around globe—including among locally focused extremist factions in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan and Yemen. These attributes are reminiscent of al-Qaeda’s at the pinnacle of its influence. However, they also reflect the simmering competition between the Islamic State and its al-Qaeda precursor as well as the latter’s regional affiliates such as Jabhat al-Nusra (Terrorism Monitor, February 20). The Islamic State’s increasingly strident discourse and threats also illustrate its rising ambitions; in addition to confronting the incumbent regimes in Iraq and Syria and rival militants and insurgents, the Islamic State has ambitious set of goals that include challenging Saudi Arabia. The Islamic State today represents the latest and potentially most complex set of challenges to Saudi Arabia, which had previously drawn the ire of al-Qaeda and its regional affiliate al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Due to the recent death of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and the succession of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, the Islamic State’s rise also comes amid a period of heightened domestic and regional uncertainty. This article will examine the Islamic State’s escalating threats toward Saudi Arabia, which suggest, alongside other recent trends, that the Islamic State is employing a steadily more aggressive threat posture toward Saudi Arabia that is likely to foreshadow future attacks and intensifying pressures.

Mapping the Threat The Islamic State’s leader (and self-style caliph) Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi singled out Saudi Arabia in an audio statement titled “Even if the Disbelievers Despise Such,” released by the group’s al-Furqan Media Foundation on November 13, 2014. In his statement, al-Baghdadi extolled what he describes as the purported expansion of the Islamic State to the “lands of al-Haramein” (two holy places) in addition to Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Algeria, through its acceptance of oaths of allegiance sworn by local militants to the self-styled caliphate. Al-Baghdadi’s mention of al-Haramein is notable in that it reflects the radical Islamist proclivity for avoiding any reference to Saudi Arabia by name and, by implication, any indirect recognition of the legitimacy of the Saudi royal family, instead highlighting Islam’s two holiest sites at Mecca and Medina. Al-Baghdadi also proclaimed the appointment of regional governors to represent the Islamic State and called on followers in Saudi Arabia and beyond to recognize and follow their leadership. Al-Baghdadi issued a

categorical call to arms: He referred to the Saudi royal family as “the serpent’s head” and the “stronghold of the disease,” and implored his Saudi subjects to attack the “al-Saloul” and “their soldiers.” The reference to al-Saloul represents a derogatory distortion of the al-Saud family name; in Islamic tradition, the al-Saloul family guarded the then-pagan holy site of the Kaaba at Mecca during the pre-Islamic period. He also implored his followers to attack polytheists and rafidah (rejectionists), an inflammatory label often assigned to Shi’a Muslims by extreme Salafists and other hardline Sunni Islamists, in an apparent reference to the kingdom’s substantial Shi’a minority population. Al-Baghdadi then issued an appeal for “patience” and reassured his followers in the kingdom that the “vanguards of the Islamic State are on their way” (al-Furqan Media Foundation, November 13, 2014). The subsequent release of the fifth edition of Dabiq, the Islamic State’s official magazine, in November 2014 by its affiliated al-Hayat Media Center, followed up al-Baghdadi’s earlier de facto declaration of war against the House of Saud. The cover of the magazine is emblazoned with a photograph of the Kaaba at Mecca, while the foreword proclaims that the Islamic State’s flag will “fly over Mecca and Medina.” It is also emphasized that Saudi militants should take up arms at home and avoid traveling to battlefields abroad. A section devoted to Saudi Arabia exalts the efforts of earlier generations of militants who resisted and attacked the monarchy, including al-Qaeda and its regional affiliate AQAP, while at the same time lamenting their failure to achieve their objectives. Equally important, the Islamic State declares its opposition to Saudi’s fellow Persian Gulf monarchies in an apparent declaration of war against Saudi Arabia’s allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). A section of the magazine dedicated to the group’s activities in Yemen emphasizes the proximity between Saudi- and Yemen-based Islamic State loyalists and their potential to cooperate in launching attacks in the Arabian Peninsula (Dabiq, November 2014). An incursion by militants who had infiltrated Saudi Arabia’s northeastern town of Arar, located in the Northern Borders province that sits adjacent to Iraq’s southern border, on January 5 underlines the potential threat the Islamic State poses to the kingdom (al-Jazeera, January 5). While details surrounding the incident remain murky, a band of Iraq-based insurgents reportedly associated with the Islamic State is said to have penetrated Saudi territory and engaged a Saudi border police post. The attackers are reported to have employed small unit ambush tactics and a suicide bomber, who detonated his explosives-laden vest while offering to surrender to a senior Saudi security officer, killing himself and the officer. The ensuing incident left three border officers and four militants dead (Saudi Press Agency, January 5). The Northern Borders province is located alongside Iraq’s Anbar province, a key locus of support for the Islamic State that is hotly contested between the Islamic State and Iraqi security forces (Reuters, February 12). The Saudi authorities have also linked the November 2014 murder of a Danish national in the capital Riyadh following the release of a video purportedly recorded by the perpetrators who claimed responsibility for the attack (The National [Abu Dhabi], December 2, 2014). An attack that targeted Shi’a worshippers, who had gathered to commemorate Ashura, in al-Hasa in the kingdom’s Eastern province has also been attributed to the Islamic State (al-Jazeera, November 25, 2014). Saudi authorities are also reported to have disrupted numerous militant cells linked to the Islamic State (al-Arabiya [Dubai], August 28, 2014).

Geopolitics of the Palace A consideration of Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical significance is critical to appreciate the nature of the threats the Islamic State poses to the kingdom. In many respects, the factors that have compelled the Islamic State to confront Saudi Arabia echo those that had originally induced al-Qaeda to take on the monarchy. Much like other entrenched authoritarian regimes in the Middle East that have drawn al-Qaeda’s fury over the years,

Saudi Arabia is despised by the Islamic State for what it sees as its pervasive corruption, strategic relationship with the United States and illegitimate position as the custodian of Mecca and Medina. In this regard, the Islamic State, much like al-Qaeda, views the Saudi royal family as an agent of U.S. imperialism that is bent on the domination and subjugation of the Arab and Islamic world. Its status as the world’s largest exporter of oil, and second-largest oil producer, adds another layer of complexity that is surely not lost on the Islamic State. In this regard, al-Qaeda’s earlier targeting of strategic energy infrastructure, including its February 2006 operation against the Abqaiq oil refinery—one of the world’s largest—may provide valuable insights into the Islamic State’s tactical calculus with respect to prospective targets inside the kingdom (al-Jazeera, February 27, 2006). The circumstances surrounding

the 1979 seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by militants, led by Juhayman al-Otaibi, who were violently opposed to the Saudi monarchy, may also offer a glimpse into the Islamic State’s plans for the kingdom (al-Majalla [London], November 2009). For al-Qaeda, the prospect of toppling or otherwise destabilizing the throne represented the apex of achievement in its broader struggle. The often-overlooked fact that a number of al-Qaeda notables, including its late founder and leader Osama bin Laden, arose out of the domestic political opposition in Saudi Arabia, serves as a testament to the hatred the Saudi royal family has incurred within extreme Islamist circles. It is reasonable to assume that Saudi Arabia also figures prominently in the Islamic State’s vision for the wider

region even as it is preoccupied with its multiple front insurgent campaign in Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State’s ongoing rivalry with al-Qaeda and its regional affiliates has also likely elevated the Kingdom’s importance as the Islamic State may sense an opportunity to succeed where its al-Qaeda predecessor previously failed. Saudi Arabia’s declared opposition to the Islamic State, its support for rival Syrian insurgent factions such as the Islamic Front and others and its participation in the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State have likewise elevated its stature as a target (al-Akhbar [Beirut], February 4, 2014; al-Safir [Beirut], January 7, 2014; AP, February 18).

Countermeasures Saudi Arabia has taken numerous steps to mitigate the threat posed by the Islamic State. In the realm of ideas, it has attempted to rein in members of its religious establishment, including over the solicitation of funds for aid and relief in Syria and prohibiting outright any attempts by Saudis to join the conflict in Syria or engage in other un-sanctioned activities abroad (al-Akhbar, June 7, 2012). In doing so, the Kingdom leveraged the Council of Senior Scholars, the country’s highest religious body. While these efforts predate the rise of the Islamic State, they demonstrate mounting concerns in the palace over events in Syria and their impact on the Saudi population. These efforts have yielded mixed results, as some prominent clergy have deviated from the official line on how to approach the situation in Syria. More importantly, Saudi volunteers also continue to stream into Syria and other battlefields in large numbers to take up arms alongside various insurgent factions (al-Safir, December 8, 2013; al-Safir, January 20, 2012). There is a great deal of sympathy among Saudis for the plight of Syrians and a deep antipathy toward a secular Baathist regime that is viewed by many as heretical and apostate. An additional challenge is that the ultraconservative forms of Wahhabist and Salafist ideologies propagated by Saudi Arabia’s religious establishment— in many respects, Saudi Arabia is the wellspring of these ideas—are hard to distinguish from the worldviews being espoused by the Islamic State. The Islamic State’s dramatic expansion has nevertheless provoked the Kingdom to engage with its population in the ideological arena. Most recently,

Saudi Arabia’s Grand Mufti, Shaykh Abd al-Aziz al-Ashaykh, has spearheaded a campaign that aims to enlist media and educational institutions in combating the Islamic State’s appeal (Arab News, February 22). Meanwhile, in the realm of physical security, the kingdom has embarked on an ambitious project to construct an approximately 600-mile-long security wall on sections of its northern border with Iraq. The wall is designed to prevent militants from infiltrating Saudi territory (al-Jazeera, September 6, 2014). The kingdom has resorted to a similar strategy in an attempt to insulate itself from the expanding violence and instability that has overtaken its southern neighbor Yemen, building a an approximately 1,000-mile-long wall along its border with Yemen (Reuters, January 22; al-Arabiya, April 10, 2013). Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s security forces have also continued to make mass arrests of suspected militants in an apparent effort to disrupt suspected domestic extremist activities associated with the Islamic State and potentially other violent Islamist organizations (The National, December 7, 2014).

Conclusion In contrast to the chaos of Iraq and Syria and other conflict-ridden zones in the broader Middle East where the Islamic State has gained a foothold, Saudi Arabia, upon first glance, represents an impermissible environment for staging and launching militant activities. The Islamic State’s particular brand of brutality has also galvanized opposition to its expansion and influence, including among rival militants wary of its tactics and other actions in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. This is best illustrated by the losses it has incurred in recent months and the growing divide between its community of supporters and those of rival organizations (Daily Star [Beirut], March 3; al-Safir, March 31, 2014). At the same time, there are no indications to suggest that these setbacks will impact its ambitions to follow in the footsteps of its al-Qaeda precursor and lead a campaign to topple the Saudi monarchy. Files:

TerrorismMonitorVol13Issue5_03.pdf