Climate  Change  Vulnerability  &  Adap5ve  Capacity  Assessment:    

Example  from  Ka‘ūpūlehu’  ahupua’a  -­‐  Hawai‘i    Island  

Alex  Frost  –  Graduate  Student    University  of  Hawaii  

Department  of  Urban  and  Regional  Planning  &  University  of  Hawaii  Economic  Research  Organiza5on  (UHERO)  

 Ques5ons:    What  combina5on  of  land-­‐use  prac5ces  best  enhance  social-­‐ecological  resilience  under  different  climate  change  scenarios?  a)  What  are  the  past,  current  and  future  (poten3al)  land  

uses/cover?  b)  What  are  the  op3mal  land/ocean  use  scenarios  in  the  face  

of  climate  change?    Loca5ons:    •  Ha’ena  –  Kauai  Island    •  Ka‘ūpūlehu’  –  Hawai‘i  (big)  Island  •  Kubulau  -­‐  Vanua  Levu          

Project  Background  (NSF  –  Part  II)  

Project  Loca+on  –  Hawai‘i  Island  

Hawai‘i  Hawaii  (Big)  Island  (10,430km2)    North  Kona  District  (pop:  37,875)    33%  popula+on  growth  from  2000-­‐2010    Kaupulehu  ahupua’a    (pop:  614)    

Ka‘ūpūlehu  ahupua’a  

•  16,000+  acres  (64  km2)  on  the    slopes  of  Hualalai  Volcano  

 •  Sea  level  to  8,271  d/2,521m    •  Forest,  grass  plains,  lava  

fields,    anchialine  ponds,  reefs,  golf  courses,  luxury  resorts  and  residences  

 •  No  perennial  streams    •  Single  owner:  Kamehameha  

Schools/Bishop  Estate    •  70+  species  of  plants  with  

more  than  half  introduced:    –  15    indigenous    –  11  endemic  

Climate  Trend  –  increasing  temperature  (Hawai‘i    Island  Data)  

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 200020.5

21

21.5

22

22.5

23

Mean

Tem

pera

ture (

°C )

Reference Location: 20.09 N, 155.26 W

10−year moving average with 95% uncertainty range12−month moving average

Country: United States Nearby City: Hilo

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature

Climate  Trend  –  Decreasing  Rainfall  

0.00  

0.50  

1.00  

1.50  

2.00  

2.50  

1965   1970   1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010  

Inches  

Year  

Kaupulehu  Annual  Rainfall  -­‐  Kona  Village  

Source:  Giambelluca,  T.  W.,  Chen,  Q.,  Frazier,  A.  G.,  Price,  J.P.,  Chen,  Y.L.,  Chu,  P.S.,  Eischeid,  J.,  et  al.  (2011).    The  rainfall  atlas  of  Hawaii.    Retrieved  from  rainfall.geography.hawaii.edu  

Local  Observa+on/Knowledge  

Source:  Heather  McMillen    

“Maybe  this  is  why  we’re  losing  all  this  weather,  because  all  these  trees  are  not  here  anymore.”    

“I  think  the  impact  on  these  resources  has  changed  because  before  it  was  for  our  sustenance.    Today  it’s  to  make  money.”  

“About  6-­‐7  years  ago  it  rained  up  mauka  (upland)  almost  the  whole  year,  since  then  the  weather  has  changed.”    

“It’s  not  good  sign  when  you  see  the  green  limu  (seaweed),  because  it  means  there’s  a  lot  of  stuff  in  the  water”  

Mauka  –  Upland  Characteris+cs  

90%  of  the  dry  forests  in  the  Hawai‘ian  Islands  have  been  eliminated  (Cabin  et  al.,2004)  

One  of  the  last  remaining  areas  of  tropical  dry  forest  is  in  Ka‘ūpūlehu,  but  it  faces  many  threats:    •  Fountain  grass  (Pennisetum  setaceum),  

which  fuels  wildfires;    •  Ungulates,  which  destroy  plants  and  

increase  fountain  grass  habitat;    •  Rodents,  which  eat  the  seeds  and  

seedlings  of  na5ve  plants,  preven5ng  regenera5on;    

•  Insect  preda5on  and  other  alien  plant  species;  and  

•  Climate  change.      

Makai  -­‐  Ocean  &  Coastal  Characteris+c  

•  Between  1992  to  1998  decline  in  fish  abundance  (41%)  &  fish  diversity  (26%)      •  Decline  of  coral  cover  from  40.71  %  in  2003  to  27.05  %  in  2011  (UH,  1999:  NOAA,  2013)    •  Between  1998  to  2012  increased  density  of  certain  aquarium  &  food  fish      

Designated  FRA  (1999)  

•  Increasing  numbers  of  invasive  species  •  Decreasing  acreage  of  dry  tropical  forests  •  Decreasing  coral  reef  covers    •  Poten+al  loss  of  fish  popula+on  and  density  from  

aquarium,  recrea+onal,  and  commercial  fishing;  •  Increasing  pollu+on,  drought  and  fires;    •  Poten+al  loss  of  cultural  assets,  achialine  ponds,  

endangered  species,  from  sea  level  rise  &  other  climate  change  impacts  

Challenges  facing  Ka‘ūpūlehu’s  unique  marine  and  terrestrial  ecosystems:    

Adap5ve  Capacity  =  Resource  Availability  in  realms  of:  Economic,  Environmental,  Governance,  Social,  Technology  &  Infrastructure  to  prepare  and  change.        Social  Focus:  Heavy  ci+zen  involvement  with  mul+ple  community  organiza+ons  working  on  conserva+on,  restora+on  and  regenera+on  of  various  ahupua’a  sub-­‐systems,  for  example:        •  The  Nature  Conservancy    •  Ka‘ūpūlehu  Marine  Life  Advisory  Commijee    •  West  Hawai‘i    Fisheries  Council    •  State  of  Hawai‘i  –  DLNR    •  Tourism  -­‐  Four  Seasons  Resort  &  Dive  Operators      •  North  Kona  Dryland  Forest  Working  Group    •  Residence  and  Cultural  Prac++oners  •  Kamehameha  School  and  Youth  •  County  of  Hawai‘i  and  others…  

Opportuni+es  -­‐  Strong  Adap+ve  Capacity  in  Ka‘ūpūlehu      

Next  Step  -­‐  Climate  Adapta+on  Planning  Process  

Marine  Ecosystem  Characteris5cs  

Local  Ecological  Knowledge  (interviews)  

Terrestrial  Ecosystem  Characteris5cs      

Stakeholder  Gathering    

Climate  Data    

Land  Use  (including  governance  &  ownership)  

Research:  Historical  Timelines  &  Observa5ons    

Land/Ocean  Management  Scenario    

Evaluate  Ecological  &  Economic  Outcome    

Climate  Change  Projec5on    

Policy  (Gov/Private)    

Resource  Conserva5on,  Management  &  Governance    

Strategy  (Private,  CBO,  Gov)    

Publica5ons  &  Future  Research    

January  2014   December  2015  

Community  Engagement,  Scenarios  &  Model  Development  

Recommenda5on  for  Social-­‐Ecological  Resilience  

Pau  ~  Thanks  for  Listening!      Ques5ons?    Acknowledgment  

 Na5onal  Science  Founda5on  and  Project  Team:    Tamara  Tick5n,  Heather  McMillen,  Allen  Friedlander,  Kim  Burner,  Tom  Giambelluca  Stacy  Jupitor,  Lisa  Mandle,  Pua’ala  Pascua,  Natalie  Kurashima,  Rachel  Dacks,  Cheryl  Scarton,  Shimona  Quazi,  Jonatha  

Giddens  and  many  more  folks    

Alex  Frost  –  Graduate  Student    University  of  Hawaii  

Department  of  Urban  and  Regional  Planning  &  University  of  Hawaii  Economic  Research  Organiza5on  (UHERO)