Alliances & Regionalism in the Middle EastAlliances & Regionalism in the Middle East – –

Week 11& 12 Week 11& 12

International Relations Theory & the Middle EastInternational Relations Theory & the Middle East

- In IR theory, alliances/bloc building is self-interested - In IR theory, alliances/bloc building is self-interested state behaviour aimed at enhancing security and state behaviour aimed at enhancing security and position.position.

- Realist and structuralist approaches along with - Realist and structuralist approaches along with elements of constructivism offer a useful approach for elements of constructivism offer a useful approach for the region. the region.

- Western experience bears only limited relevance for - Western experience bears only limited relevance for the Middle East. the Middle East.

- Middle Eastern states have been poor balancers and - Middle Eastern states have been poor balancers and weak hegemons. weak hegemons.

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- States ally to balance against States ally to balance against threatsthreats rather than rather than againstagainst power alone.power alone.

- HHow states respond to threats ow states respond to threats :: by by balancingbalancing (allying (allying with others againstwith others against the prevailing threat) or the prevailing threat) or bandwagoningbandwagoning (alignment with the source of danger). (alignment with the source of danger). Walt asserts thatWalt asserts that “for the states that matter, balancing “for the states that matter, balancing is the rule.”is the rule.”

- BBalancing is far more common thanalancing is far more common than BandwagoningBandwagoning in in the MEthe ME. When bandwagoning does occur, it is among . When bandwagoning does occur, it is among weaker states – both because theyweaker states – both because they are “more vulnerable are “more vulnerable to pressure” and their resources are to pressure” and their resources are insignificant in insignificant in their relation patterns. their relation patterns.

- IIdeological similarities and state-sponsoreddeological similarities and state-sponsored instruments instruments of increasing alliance commitment, such as foreign of increasing alliance commitment, such as foreign economic and military aid, areeconomic and military aid, are subordinate to subordinate to security security preferencespreferences in alliance formation.in alliance formation.

Stephen M. Walt. 1987. Stephen M. Walt. 1987. Origins of Alliances Origins of Alliances Ithaca: Ithaca: Cornell University PressCornell University Press

TThe alliance has been he alliance has been primarily primarily defensivedefensive in in nature, aimed at nature, aimed at neutralizing Iraqi and neutralizing Iraqi and Israeli offensive Israeli offensive capabilities in the region, capabilities in the region, and preventingand preventing American American encroachment in the encroachment in the Middle East. In general, Middle East. In general, defensive alliances which defensive alliances which have set and limited have set and limited objectivesobjectives are are more more stable and durablestable and durable.. This, This, in part, explains the in part, explains the longevity of thelongevity of the 33-year-33-year-long partnership. long partnership.

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- The regional state system is highly unstable and conflict-prone because it is characterized by extreme multilateralism and chronic foreign intervention.

- Given the area’s strategic centrality between East and West, and its great ethnic and geographic diversity, no regional contender or external power could unite or organize the region.

- The ME as the most “penetrated” of the world’s regional diplomatic arenas: “A penetrated political system is neither effectively absorbed by the outside challenger nor later released from the outsider’s smothering embrace. “

- The hallmark of Middle Eastem “penetration” is a pervasive multilateralism. Local leaders and conflicts mesh with national and superpower actors and rivalries in an ever-changing pattern of confounding complexity.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EASTOLD RULES, DANGEROUS GAMES by L. Carl Brown (Princeton University Press)

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- The prominence of identity politics demands moving beyond realism to consider other approaches that better recognize the fundamentally social character.

- The challenge is not forgetting that actors are frequently strategic and manipulative. Indeed, they could not be strategic and manipulative if there were no social foundations and normative expectations to exploit

- The ongoing debates about how to build the desired regional order through revised norm of Arabism to cure the fragmentation that currently defines the Arab states system.

Dialogues in Arab Politics: Negotiations in Regional OrderMichael N. Barnett , Columbia University Press,1998

A A series of conflicts in the series of conflicts in the Arab world between the Arab world between the new republics led by new republics led by Gamal Abdel Nasser of Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt and espousing Arab Egypt and espousing Arab nationalism and Pan-nationalism and Pan-Arabism, and the more Arabism, and the more traditionalist kingdoms led traditionalist kingdoms led by King Faisal of Saudi by King Faisal of Saudi ArabiaArabia.. The two sides were The two sides were Arab nationalist republics Arab nationalist republics -- usually quasi-socialist -- usually quasi-socialist and Pan-Arabist in and Pan-Arabist in orientation -- and the orientation -- and the traditional monarchies -- traditional monarchies -- usually with quasi-feudal usually with quasi-feudal or rentierist economic or rentierist economic structures. structures.

{{ {{The best framework for understanding the The best framework for understanding the

regional politics of the Middle East is as a regional politics of the Middle East is as a cold cold

warwar in which Iran and Saudi Arabia play the in which Iran and Saudi Arabia play the

leading roles. leading roles. ……These two main actors are not These two main actors are not

confronting each other militarily; rather, their confronting each other militarily; rather, their

contest for influence plays out in the domestic contest for influence plays out in the domestic

political systems of the region’s weak states.political systems of the region’s weak states.

It It is a is a struggle over the direction of the Middle struggle over the direction of the Middle

East’s domestic politics East’s domestic politics more than it is a purely more than it is a purely

military contest. military contest. The “struggle for Syria” The “struggle for Syria” was a was a

key element of the Arab cold war. key element of the Arab cold war.

The current confrontation has an importantThe current confrontation has an important

sectarian element, but it cannot be accuratelysectarian element, but it cannot be accurately

understood simply as a “Sunni versusunderstood simply as a “Sunni versus

Shia” fightShia” fight. (Gause,2014). . (Gause,2014).

The power of theThe power of the major protagonists in the major protagonists in the Arab cold war wasArab cold war was measured in measured in their ability to their ability to affect domesticaffect domestic political struggles in political struggles in neighboring states neighboring states wherewhere weak regimes had weak regimes had trouble controlling theirtrouble controlling their own societies and own societies and local players sought regionallocal players sought regional allies against allies against their own domestic opponents.their own domestic opponents. Non-state Non-state actors actors played major roles. Theplayed major roles. The contending contending camps themselves were not alwayscamps themselves were not always united, united, with tactical alliances crossing whatwith tactical alliances crossing what appeared appeared to be the lines of conflict. to be the lines of conflict. The greatThe great powerspowers were important participants but notwere important participants but notthe drivers of events. The “struggle for Syria”the drivers of events. The “struggle for Syria” was a key element of the Arab cold war. was a key element of the Arab cold war. (Gause,2014) (Gause,2014)

- The relative autonomy of regional security constitutes a pattern of

international security relations radically different from the rigid

structure of superpower bipolarity that defined the Cold War.

- Since most threats travel more easily over short distances than over

long ones, security interdependence is normally patterned into

regionally based clusters: regional security complexes;

- ‘A set of units whose major processes of securitisation,

desecuritisation, or both are so interlinked that their security

problems cannot reasonably be analysed or resolved apart from one

another’.

- Security complexes may well be extensively penetrated by the global

powers, but their regional dynamics nonetheless have a substantial

degree of autonomy from the patterns set by the global powers.

- A blend of materialist (i.e.neorealist) and constructivist (i.e.

Copenhagen school) approaches.

REGIONS AND POWERS by B.Buzan & O.Waver (Cambridge University Press)

- Definitions of the Middle East vary, but we see a pattern of security interdependence that covers a region stretching from Morocco to Iran, including all of the Arab states plus Israel and Iran.

- An autonomous regional level of security has operated strongly for several decades, despite continuous and heavy impositions from the global level.

- Its RSC is a clear example of a conflict formation that is unusually large and that is unusually large and complicated,complicated, and also possesses some and also possesses some distinctive cultural features.distinctive cultural features.

MIDDLE EAST AND POWERS -1

- TThe insecurity of ruling elites withinhe insecurity of ruling elites within their domestic sphere plays a their domestic sphere plays a significant role in shaping the dynamicssignificant role in shaping the dynamics of (in)security overall. of (in)security overall.

- On the surface, this is a region On the surface, this is a region composed largelycomposed largely of of postcolonial postcolonial modern statesmodern states, albeit mostly weak ones. , albeit mostly weak ones.

- But this structureBut this structure is riddled with is riddled with still still powerful premodern elementspowerful premodern elements of clan, of clan, tribe,tribe, and religion.and religion.

MIDDLE EAST AND POWERS -2

Regions, Regionalism and Understanding Regions, Regionalism and Understanding CooperationCooperation

- Regionalism: is the Middle East a single unit or distinct - Regionalism: is the Middle East a single unit or distinct yet interrelated parts?yet interrelated parts?

Single unit: geography, history, common Single unit: geography, history, common securitysecurity

concerns. concerns.Subdivision: e.g. Gulf/Northern Subdivision: e.g. Gulf/Northern

Tier/MaghrebTier/Maghreb

- Regionalism is a policy-driven process in pursuit of - Regionalism is a policy-driven process in pursuit of common goals and policies in given region.common goals and policies in given region.

- Regionalization: Processes (not policies) towards more - Regionalization: Processes (not policies) towards more regionally-based interaction.regionally-based interaction.

- Low levels of regionalism in the Middle East, with - Low levels of regionalism in the Middle East, with limited cohesion and integration.limited cohesion and integration.

Middle East Regionalism: A ReviewMiddle East Regionalism: A Review

- League of Nations and the United Nations membership.- League of Nations and the United Nations membership.

- League of Arab States (1945): Statist principles to nurture - League of Arab States (1945): Statist principles to nurture sovereignty rather than integration. sovereignty rather than integration.

- Cold War Alliances, e.g. Baghdad Pact.- Cold War Alliances, e.g. Baghdad Pact.

- Cooperative efforts at regional level set against various - Cooperative efforts at regional level set against various factors:factors:

1) External penetration1) External penetration2) Inter-Arab tensions2) Inter-Arab tensions3) Domestic politics3) Domestic politics4) Regional economy4) Regional economy

- GCC show- GCC showss groupings sustained by groupings sustained by shared regime type shared regime type and and security concernssecurity concerns..

- Few collective achievements by end of Cold War.- Few collective achievements by end of Cold War.

Middle East Regionalism: A Review (continued)Middle East Regionalism: A Review (continued)

- Mixed response to end of Cold War: continuity and - Mixed response to end of Cold War: continuity and change.change.

- New regionalist trends like - New regionalist trends like Arab Magrep Union (Arab Magrep Union (AMUAMU) ) and and Arab Cooperation Coıncil (Arab Cooperation Coıncil (ACCACC))..

- End of Cold War revealed forces of fragmentation and - End of Cold War revealed forces of fragmentation and division within the Middle East. Until Arab Spring, division within the Middle East. Until Arab Spring, realist paradigms appeared validated in the region.realist paradigms appeared validated in the region.

- However, new players beyond the US playing a role.- However, new players beyond the US playing a role.

- External actors have retarded institutional progress, - External actors have retarded institutional progress, but Middle Eastern states essential for successful but Middle Eastern states essential for successful cooperation. The latter lack capacity and will to make cooperation. The latter lack capacity and will to make regional institutions succeed. regional institutions succeed.

- GGeographic proximity makes the two regionaleographic proximity makes the two regional spaces spaces naturally interdependentnaturally interdependent..

- AA strong mutual interest in strong mutual interest in fostering regional fostering regional cooperation between the northcooperation between the north and the south of the and the south of the Mediterranean Sea.Mediterranean Sea.

- European policies haveEuropean policies have been focused on security issues been focused on security issues and basedand based on the idea that on the idea that a prosperous neighborhood a prosperous neighborhood wouldwould be peaceful and non-challenging for the security be peaceful and non-challenging for the security ofof the EUthe EU..

- The Euro-Mediterranean PartnershipThe Euro-Mediterranean Partnership:: 1) 1) Mediterranean Mediterranean Policy (1972–1992) and Policy (1972–1992) and 2) 2) Renovated Mediterranean Renovated Mediterranean PolicyPolicy (1992–1995)(1992–1995) 3) T 3) The Barcelona Processhe Barcelona Process (1995- ) (1995- )

- TThe European Neighbourhood Policyhe European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)(ENP)- UUltimate goal “turning theltimate goal “turning the Mediterranean basin into an Mediterranean basin into an

area of dialogue,area of dialogue, exchange and cooperation exchange and cooperation guaranteeing peace,guaranteeing peace, stability and prosperity.“stability and prosperity.“

European Initiatives toEuropean Initiatives to Develop RegionalismDevelop Regionalism in the in the Middle EastMiddle East

- PPromotromoting ing peace through economic development andpeace through economic development and integration by fostering trade among Israel and theintegration by fostering trade among Israel and the other other Arab statesArab states..

- As an extension of As an extension of the alreadythe already established US-Israel Free established US-Israel Free Trade AgreementTrade Agreement, , QQualified Industrial Zones (QIZsualified Industrial Zones (QIZs), ), allowallowinging certain products from identified certain products from identified industrial zones industrial zones in Egypt, Jordan, the Gaza Strip,and the West Bank to be in Egypt, Jordan, the Gaza Strip,and the West Bank to be exported to the US marketexported to the US market duty free.duty free.

- QIZs were also meant QIZs were also meant to achieve normalizationto achieve normalization between between Israel and its Arab neighbors byIsrael and its Arab neighbors by implementing a practical implementing a practical economic interdependenceeconomic interdependence between thembetween them. .

- With the goal of creating a regional free tradeWith the goal of creating a regional free trade agreement agreement in 2013, MEFTA envisages graduatedin 2013, MEFTA envisages graduated steps to increase steps to increase tradetrade and investment with the and investment with the US US and otherand otherss..

American American Initiatives toInitiatives to Develop RegionalismDevelop Regionalism in the in the Middle EastMiddle East

? Inside Story - How relevant is the GCC - YouTube.url

‘ ‘ ME states and regimes have lacked both the capacity ME states and regimes have lacked both the capacity

and the will to make cooperation and regional and the will to make cooperation and regional

institutions work,except in a narrow and self-regarding institutions work,except in a narrow and self-regarding

sense; hence the need to turn outside to resolve their sense; hence the need to turn outside to resolve their

security dilemmas. In this formulation, regionalism and security dilemmas. In this formulation, regionalism and

anything more than functional cooperation are merely a anything more than functional cooperation are merely a

symbol: a valuable, but disposable, source of legitimacy symbol: a valuable, but disposable, source of legitimacy

for regimes whom own legitimacy is low.’ for regimes whom own legitimacy is low.’

(Hudson,1977)(Hudson,1977)

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TThe future of the Muslim world he future of the Muslim world depends on the development of depends on the development of principles of principles of ‘‘good governancegood governance’’, , together with the establishment of a together with the establishment of a tradition of pluralistic democratic tradition of pluralistic democratic practices, respect for human rights, practices, respect for human rights, empowerment of women, rule of empowerment of women, rule of law, transparency and law, transparency and accountability of the administrative accountability of the administrative authority.authority. (İhsanoğlu,2009) (İhsanoğlu,2009)

The Arab Spring: New Regionalism?The Arab Spring: New Regionalism?

- Until Arab Spring, cooperation and alliance-making in - Until Arab Spring, cooperation and alliance-making in the Middle East seen as superficial and transitory. the Middle East seen as superficial and transitory.

- Arab Spring’s potential to remedy legitimacy deficit in - Arab Spring’s potential to remedy legitimacy deficit in nation building as well as region building.nation building as well as region building.

- Talk of “new regionalism” in the Middle East- Talk of “new regionalism” in the Middle East ??? ???