American Think Tanks: An Introduction

Junfu Zhang

Public Policy Institute of California

Think Tank: A Definition Original meaning (1900-05): “brain”

Current meaning (1955-60): a body of experts, as a research organization, providing advice and ideas on specific national or commercial problems (OED)

My definition here: independent, private, non-partisan, non-profit research organizations, whose goal is to influence government policy making or implementation (500 TT in U.S.)

More on Definition

Independent: excluding policy centers at universities

Private: non-government, excluding CEA, CBO, LAO, etc.

Non-partisan but not necessarily non-ideological

Non-profit, excluding consulting firms such as MPR

All about policy

A Brief History of American Think Tanks

First generation: think tanks as policy research institutions Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1910) Institute for Government Research (1916, Brookings) Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace (1919) Council on Foreign Relations (1921) American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (1943)

Second generation: the emergence of government contractors RAND Corporation (1948) Hudson Institute (1961) Urban Institute (1968)

A Brief History (continued)

The third generation: the rise of advocacy think tanks Center for Strategic and International Studies (1962) Heritage Foundation (1973) CATO Institute (1977)

The fourth generation: legacy-based think tanks Carter Center (1984) Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom (1994)

Three Kinds of Think Tanks “University without students:”

Quality academic research; focus on long-term impact; research fellow like professors

Examples: Brookings, AEI, Carnegie Endowment

Government contractors Funded by government department / agencies; address specific concerns of

policy-makers Examples: RAND, Urban Institute

Advocacy think tanks Research plus aggressive marketing; actively participate in policy debate Heritage, CATO

Political Orientation of Think Tanks

Conservative, libertarian, centrist, liberal, progressive

Right, center, left

University without Students: An Example

Brookings Institution “The Brookings Institution is an independent, nonpartisan

organization devoted to research, analysis, education, and publication focused on public policy issues in the areas of economics, foreign policy, and governance.”

3 Programs: economy, government, foreign policy; 6 policy centers

Rigorous academic research

Close relation with federal government

Government Contractor: An Example

RAND Corporation Mission: “RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and

decision-making through research and analysis.”

More than 1,600 full- and part-time employees, (85% research staff hold advanced degrees, with >65% having Ph.D's or M.D.'s. )

Research areas: Child Policy, Civil and Criminal Justice, Regional Studies, Drug Policy, Education, Health, Infrastructure, International Policy, National Security, Population & Aging, Science & Technology, Terrorism

Glorious history in 1950s: Von Neumann, Dantzig, Nash, Shapley, Schelling, Arrow, etc.

Advocacy Think Tanks: An Example

Heritage Foundation Mission: “formulate and promote conservative public policies based

on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.”

“The Foundation produces research and generates solutions consistent with its beliefs that are marketed to the Congress, the Executive Branch, the news media and others”

“We are not afraid to begin our sentences with the words ‘We believe’ because we do believe ……”

Research at Think Tanks: Examples

Nick Lardy (Brookings, IIE): China’s economy

William Gale & Peter Orszag (Brookings): “The Economic Effects of Long-Term Fiscal Discipline”

Michael Boskin (Hoover): Tax-deferred savings and the U.S. budget

David Neumark (PPIC): Effects of living wages

AnnaLee Saxenian (PPIC): Silicon Valley’s immigrant entrepreneurs

Research at Think Tanks: More Examples

Elisa Eiseman (RAND): “Cloning Human Beings: Recent Scientific and Policy Development”

Roland Sturm (RAND): The Health Risks of Obesity

Sheila R. Zedlewski and Jennifer Holland (Urban): “Work Activities of Current Welfare Recipients”

Daniel J. Mitchell et al (Heritage): “Pathway to Economic Growth and Tax Reform: Eliminating the Double Tax on Dividends”

Outlets of Think Tanks’ Works

Books, journal articles Monographs, reports, occasional papers Short pieces of policy brief Op-ed pieces

Other informal channels Conferences, panel discussions Policy training programs Media appearance

Funding Sources: Brookings (FY2002)

2%

2%

8%

9%

30%

49%

Miscellaneous

Government

Publications

CPPE

Endowment

Gifts and Grants

Total Revenue: $40,678,000

Funding Sources: RAND (FY2002)

0%

2%

2%

3%

3%

90%

Other

Contributions

Assets releasedfrom restrictions

Fees

Income / gains oninvestments

Contracts andgrants

Total Income: $186,808,000

Funding Sources: Heritage (FY2002)

1%

3%

3%

7%

27%

59%

Investment Income

Publications / Others

Bequests

Corporations

Foundation Grants

Individuals

Total Income: $27,539,833

Idea Producer or Broker?

Heritage Foundation Expenses, 2002

Brookings Institution Expenses, 2002

Research (40%)

Educational Programs (21%)

Media & Government Relations (20%)

Fundraising (16%)

Management & General (3%)

Economic Studies (37%)

Foreign Policy Studies (17%)

Governance Studies (15%)

CPPE (11%)

Publications (10%)

External Affairs (6%)

Communications (4%)

Impact of Think Tanks

National Journal’s list of 150 most influential 22 from think tanks Mass media (20), public interest groups (17), lobbyists

(16), lawyers (15), academics (14), etc.

Theories of political impact Elite theory Populist theory (“people are policy”)

The Revolving Door between Government and Think Tanks: Examples

Three secretaries in the Clinton administration landed at Brookings

Think tank alumnus in Bush administration Rice (HI), Chao (HF), Haass (BI), Perle (AEI)

President’s economic advisors: Larry Lindsey (AEI), Glen Hubbard (AEI) Martin Baily (BI, IIE), Gene Sperling (BI), Laura Tyson (IIE), Robert

Lawrence (BI, IIE), Joseph Stiglitz (BI) William Niskanen (Cato), { M. Boskin (HI), M. Feldstein (NBER) } Charles Schultz (BI), Arthur Okun (BI)

Others: Alan Blinder (BI), Alice Rivlin(BI)

Citations of Think Tanks in Media  Think Tank Political

OrientationNumber of

Media Citations 2002

Number of Media Citations

2001

% change

1 Brookings Institution centrist 4,308 4,241 2%

2 Council on Foreign Relations

centrist 2,570 1,657 55

3 Heritage Foundation conservative 2,325 2,255 3

4 American Enterprise Institute

conservative 1,858 1,931 -4

5 Center for Strategic and International Studies

conservative 1,824 1,687 8

6 Cato Institute cons/libertarian

1,814 2,538 -29

7 RAND Corporation center-right 1,403 1,230 14

8 Carnegie Endowment centrist 1,167 1,171 0

9 Economic Policy Institute progressive 851 891 -4

10 Family Research Council conservative 726 1,183 -39

11 Urban Institute center-left 653 1,234 -47

12 National Bureau of Economic Research

centrist 606 1,976 -69

13 Hudson Institute conservative 603 885 -32

Citations of Think Tanks in Media (continued)

  Think Tank Political Orientation

Number of Media Citations

2002

Number of Media Citations

2001

% change

14 Center for Public Integrity progressive 580 429 35

15 Manhattan Institute conservative 573 455 26

16 Hoover Institution conservative 523 585 -11

17 Washington Institute for Near East Policy

center-right 492 401 23

18 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

progressive 442 558 -21

19 Public Policy Institute of California

centrist 440 339 30

20 Milken Institute centrist 436 476 8

21 Institute for International Economics

centrist 387 390 -1

22 Freedom Forum centrist 354 395 -10

23 Center for Defense Information

progressive 347 571 -39

24 Institute for Policy Studies progressive 331 366 -10

25 Progressive Policy Institute

centrist 284 343 -17

Citations of Think Tanks in Media (continued)

Number of Media Citations by Ideology

Number of Media Citations

2002 2001

Conservative or Right-Leaning

12,141    (47%) 13,150    (47%)

Centrist 10,552    (41%) 10,988    (39%)

Progressive or Left-Leaning

3,204    (12%) 4,049    (14%)

Total 25,897 28,187

Determinants of Media Visibility

Rich and Weaver (2000): Money buys visibility Washington, D.C.-based think tanks generate more media

coverage Conservative think tanks are cited more often than liberal

ones, but not after funding resources are controlled for Media biases: WT and WSJ more likely to cover

conservative think tanks, and NYT covers centrist think tanks more often

Concluding Remarks

“[T]he ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else.” (Keynes, 1936)

Think tanks facilitate the dissemination of such ideas

Think tanks in China