An agroclimatic potential

in southern Siberia in a changing climate

during the XXI century

Tchebakova Nadezda and Parfenova Elena

Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

Lysanova Galina

Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

and Soja Amber National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA

1. Premise The southern portion of Siberia is a subboreal forest-steppe and steppe (yellow) ecozone and is known to have high agroclimatic potential due to favorable climatic and soil conditions

green – new forest habitats;yellow – new steppe habitats; white – no change

• Potential northward both forest and non-forest biome shifts over Siberia were modeled by 2080 coupling our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model (SiBCliM) to climate change predicted from the HadCM3 A2 and B1 projections;

• At the expense of forests, approximately 40% of Siberia (yellow) was predicted to be covered by forest-steppe and steppe by the end of the century that could be potentially suitable for agriculture;

2. Premise

HadCM3 B1 HadCM3 A2

Steppe

Forest

Current climate

Our goals

• evaluate ongoing climate change in central Siberia from observed data: in the baseline period 1960-1990 and in 1990-2010;

• predict related hot spots of potential agriculture change in the contemporary climate 1990-2010 and in the future based on the Hadley 2020, 2050 and 2080 climate change projections;

• identify new agricultural regions based on a new agroclimatic potential that may evolve as climate changes.

Study area: Central Siberia

(50-75°N and 85-105 °E )

Republic of

Khakassia

Former Soviet Union

Krasnoyarsk krai

Republic

of Tyva

Arable lands

Central Siberia

90 weather

stations

Climate change in central Siberia from 1960-1990 to 1991-2010 (historical data) and from 1990 to 2020 and from 1990 to 2080 (modeled from HadCM3 B1 and A2)

B1 2020 A2 2020 1991-2010

T July

T Jan

Precip, %

(-0.5)-0° 0-0.5°

0.5-1°

1-1.5°

1.5-2°

B1 2080 A2 2080

1.5-2°

2.5-3°

3.5-4°

4-4.5°

4.5-5°

5-5.5°

0-1°

6-6.5°

4.5-5°

>8°

5-6°

6-7° 3-4°

2-3°

1-2°

<0°

3-4° 4-5°

2-3°

7-8° 8-9°

>9°

<<0

0-10

10-20

10-20

20-30

10-20

20-30

Temperature trends of July and January in the

south of central Siberia (49-55°N)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

July temperature

January temperature

(49-55°N)

(>51°N)

(<51°N)

Results

• Winters are already 2-3°С warmer in the north and 1-2°С warmer in the south by 2010

• Summer temperatures increased by 1°С in the north and by 1-2°С in the south;

• Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes, and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes;

• Similarities between historical trends in temperature and precipitation to 2010 and the Hadley 2020 B1 and A2 climate projections, both in terms of patterns and location, suggest the Hadley AOGCMs correctly captured current climatic trends in central Siberia;

Classification of Ag Regions*

Contemporary climate

Future climate

ZONE Growing

Degree-days, 5oC

ZONE Annual Moisture

Index

1. Severe < 50 1. Suplus

moisture

< 1.5

2. Very cold 50 – 450 2. Sufficient

moisture

1.5 – 2.75

3. Cold 450 – 600 3. Insufficient

moisture

2.75 – 4.0

4. Moderately

cold

600 – 900 4. Dry > 4.0

5. Very cool 900 – 1050

6. Cool 1050 – 1200

7. Moderately

cool

1200 – 1350

8.Insufficiently

warm

1350 – 1500

9. Sufficiently

warm

> 1500

10. Warm 1500 – 1650

11. Very warm 1650 – 1800

12. Hot 1800 – 2000

13. Very hot >2000

* Atlas of Krasnoyarsk krai (1994)

**AMI=GDD/precip

**

GDD5-based Ag Regions

B1 2020

Before 1960 1960-1990 1990-2010

B1 2080 A2 2020 A2 2080

5 – very cool

6 – cool

7 – moderately cool

8 – insufficiently warm

9 – moderately warm

10 – warm

11 – very warm

12 – hot

13 – very+extremely hot

1 – severe 3 – cold

2 – very cold 4 – moderately cold

AMI-based Ag Regions

B1 2020

Before 1960 1960-1990 1990-2010

B1 2080 A2 2020

A2 2080:

– suplus moisture

– sufficient

– insufficient

– dry

GDD-AMI-based Ag Regions

B1 2020

Before 1960 1960-1990 1990-2010

B1 2080 A2 2020

A2 2080:

– Cold (not suitable)

– Suitable (warm and

moist, irrigation)

– Dry (not suitable)

Ag-region area change in a warming climate (%)

AMI Before 1960

1961- 1990

1991- 2010

В1 2020

А2 2020

В1 2080

А2 2080

Suplus Moisture

62.0 60.0 60.0 53.7 66.9 40.6 19.4

Sufficient moisture

34.2 35.3 34.3 37.7 31.0 41.8 49.3

Insufficient moisture

3.1 4.0 4.7 7.3 1.5 15.4 25.6

Dry 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.6 2.3 5.7

GDD5 Before 1960

1961 –1990

1991 -2010

В1 2020

А2 2020

В1 2080

А2 2080

Severe 4.7 3.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 0.3 Very cold 22.9 23.1 20.8 18.8 17.3 6.9 0.4

Cold 10.1 12.2 10.6 9.8 11.5 8.2 1.2 Moderately cold 26.5 25.1 22.0 18.5 21.4 18.4 9.5

Very cool 14.0 14.2 14.1 11.8 14.1 7.9 9.2 Cool 14.7 16.3 12.7 13.1 12.1 9.1 10.0

Moderately cool 6.9 5.7 14.0 12.4 14.0 12.1 8.0 Insufficiently warm 0.3 0.2 3.3 12.3 7.3 10.3 8.1 Moderately warm 0.1 0.8 0.6 10.0 11.6

Warm 13.3 11.0 Very Warm 3.3 10.3

Hot 0.2 10.5 Very hot 9.9

Extremely hot 0.3

Results

• Warm and hot ag-regions would increase

8-10% in area by 2080 and may be

considered as suitable for crops under

sufficient moisture or irrigation

• Very and extremely hot lands will not be

suitable for crops due to corresponding

insufficient moisture over these lands

Crop species requirements for warmth, GDD5 (Agroclimatology, 1980)

• Potato, cabbage > 600oC

• Barley, pea > 900

• Spring wheat, winter wheat,

maize (silage), oatmeal > 1200

• Sunflower (seed) > 1500

• Maize (seed) > 1650

• Rice, soja bean, grape* > 1800

• Apricot* > 2000

* depends on winter severity

Traditional and new crop distribution in southern Siberia by 1990 and 2080

Spring wheat, winter wheat, maize (silage),

oatmeal, barley, millet

1961-1990

HadCM3 B1

2080

HadCM3 A2

2080

Maize (grain), shugar beets,beans, late millet

1961-1990

HadCM3 B1

2080

HadCM3 A2

2080

1

Trends of grain crops (centner ha-1 , for 1966-2009 in

the forest-steppe zone (green) and steppe zone (red)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Trends are significant at p<0.04-0.10 in forest-steppe regions and are significant at p<0.001-0.005 in steppe regions

Statistical models parameters

for various crop yields

W (centner ha-1) = * - a + b* AMI + c* GDD Crop name Intercept

a

Slope b Slope c R2adj, st.er., N, p

F, df, 1%, (5%)

Grain 7.92

-3.45

0.011

0.43; 2.7; 29; 0.000

F(2,26)=11.718 5.53

Spring

wheat

15.05

-7.15

0.017

0.68; 3.4; 27; 0.000

F(2,24)=29.051 5.61

Oatmeal 3.86

-3.94

0.0163

0.52; 2.8; 29; <0.000

F(2,26)=15.712 5.53

Barley 14.5

-3.61

0.0073

0.52; 2.4; 25; <0.000

F(2,22)=13.812 5.72

Forage

root plants

-334.5

-50.7

0.469

0.20; 62; 15; <0.100

F(2,12)=2.7703 6.93 (3.88)

Potato -29.10

-7.86

0.1062

0.31; 17; 31; <0.002

F(2,28)=7.6384 5.45

Silage -7.45

-96.77

0.356

0.67; 30.4; 15;<0.000

F(2,12)=15.314

6.93

Hay

6.9

-4.2

0.0168

0.49; 2.0; 30; <0.000

F(2,27)=15.099

5.49

Berries -59.0

-11.0

0.077

0.48, 5.6; 11; <0.031

F(2,8)=5.5965 8.65 (4.46)

1

Grain crop production (c/ha) in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential (soils suitable for crops) is limited by soils of the southern taiga

Grain crop production may increase from 20 to 35 c/ha in 2080

Silage crop production (c/ha) in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential is limited by steppe, forest-steppe, and southern taiga soils suitable for crops

Silage crop production may increase from 300 to 600 c/ha in 2080

Potato crop production (c/ha) in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential is limited by steppe, forest-steppe, and southern taiga soils suitable for crops

Potato crop production may increase from 100 to 200 c/ha at 2080

Berries crop production (c/ha) in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential is limited by steppe, forest-steppe, and southern taiga soils suitable for crops

Berries crop production may increase from 10 to 60 c/ha at 2080

Conclusions

• For half a century, from 1960 to 2010, summers have increasingly become 0.7-1.5°С warmer and winters have become 1-2°С warmer in the northern farming regions of the Munisinsk basin;

• Both summers and winters have become two times warmer 1.4-3.2°С and 2-4°С, correspondingly, in the southern farming regions in Tyva;

• The pattern of moisure change over the study area was complex with increased moisture in the forest-steppe zone and decreased moisture in the steppe zone;

• 50-85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils within the steppe, forest-steppe, subtaiga and southern taiga zones;

Conclusions

• Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in southern Siberia (R2 = 0.43-0.68);

• Crop production may increase by twofold as climate warms during the century;

• Traditional crops (grain, potato, maize for silage) could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50-70 km per decade) and new crops (maize for grain, fruit trees) could be introduced in the far south depending on winter conditions and these would necessitate irrigation in the drier 2080 climate.

• Agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming

.

NM Tchebakova , EI Parfenova , GI Lysanova and AJ Soja

“Agro-climatic potential across central Siberia in an

altered twenty-first century”

Environmental Research Letters,6 (2011) 045207

Acknowledgements

• We would like to recognize the Northern Eurasian

Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) and the

NASA Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC)

program.

• We are greatly appreciative of the current support for

this work, provided by the NASA Interdisciplenary

Science NNH09ZDA001N-IDS

and

• the Russian Foundation for Basic Research

10-05-00941