An Eco No Metric Analysis of Counter Terrorism

8/8/2019 An Eco No Metric Analysis of Counter Terrorism

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An econometric analysis of counter terrorism

effectiveness: the impact on life and property losses

Presented By: Abdul Sami

Research Article


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Outline

Introduction

Related literature

Data Methodology

Findings

Conclusion


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INTRODUCTION Sovereign states and international organizations have dedicated vast

resources in designing and implementing a multitude of counter terrorismpolicies.

The amount of counter terrorism spending ha s increased substantiallyovertime ,especially after 9/11.

Question arises whether the allocated resources on anti-terrorism areproductive or just useless.

Despite the profound importance of the issue, research work on counter

terrorism activities certainly become failed because of two reasons

- Research is hampered by data limitations

- The notion of counter terrorism Productivity or efficiency Is elusive


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Cont..

Tool to measure the effectiveness of counter terrorism activities is to

count the number of incidents that are stopped by the authorities.

Authorities ability to diminish the likelihood of casualties and damages

done by terrorists.

Two factors are used:

1. The probability that terrorist incident is stopped by authorities.

2. Human losses(casualties) and Property losses.

Higher will be the probability that incident is stopped by authorities lower

will be both casualties and property losses.


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Related literature

Landes (1978) did research on examining effects of counterterrorism laws

and security measures.

Atkinson et al.(1987) applied a hazard model to investigate terrorist and

government bargaining behavior in hostage-taking incidents.

Cauley and Im (1988) presented an analysis of terrorism incidents

examining the effectiveness of airport security screening measures.

Brophy-Baermann and Conybeare (1994),much like the previous

literature, employed an intervention analysis approach to determine the

effectiveness of six Israeli military-led retaliation attacks on reducing

terrorism from the PLO and Lebanon.


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Barros(2003) applied intervention analysis on terrorist act,

Barros focused on the effects of different political ideologies

in power ,foreign investment, police and military expenditures

on kidnappings and assassinations.


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Data

Data that is used in research was obtained from ITERATE

database(International terrorism :Attributes of terrorist events).

Data covers the period of 1968-2003 during which 12569 worldwide

incidents of terrorism have been recorded.

Sample of 7264 incidents was taken which was based on major attack

types: bombings, armed attacks, assassinations and hostage taking.

ITERATE has classified each terrorist incidents outcome into seven

categories from 0 to 6 mentioned in Table #3.


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Methodology

Here dichotomous variable is constructed:


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Econometric Methodology

(trend): is a linear time period

(mili): is a military expenditure as percentage to GDP

(polity): stands for the regime type(Autocracy-democracy)

(gdppc): denotes GDP per capita

(u): represents the Error term


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Findings

Relative counter terrorism effectiveness

- Coefficient of linear time is positive indicating that effectiveness is

increasing overtime. it is increasing with annual rate of 0.44%.

- 1% increase in military expenditure results in 0.30% increase in likelihoodof authorities effectiveness.

- 1% increase in GDP per capita results in 0.33 increase in likelihood ofauthorities effectiveness.

- Finally results indicate that type of regime doesnt effect on authoritieseffectiveness.


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Which indicates that whether the probability of casualties

differs across level of authorities. Marginal effect show that

incidents stopped after initiation by authorities reduce the

probability of casualties with 13%.

-Military expenditure is positively correlated with the probability of casualties.

-Polity doesnt effect on the probability of the casualties.

-GDP per capita is negatively co related with the probability of casualties.

Effect of counter terrorism on probability of

casualties


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conclusion

The empirical result indicates that probability a terrorist

incident stopped by authority has increased over time.

We conclude that for a time under examination aggregaterelative counterterrorism effectiveness has increased.

Along with conventional wisdom, Econometric analysis

verifies that when authorities are able to stop incidents,probability of casualties and property loses significantly

reduced.

Documents

An Eco No Metric Analysis of Counter Terrorism