An Experiment in Public-Opinion Polling among Preliterate People

International African Institute

An Experiment in Public-Opinion Polling among Preliterate PeopleAuthor(s): M. G. MarwickSource: Africa: Journal of the International African Institute, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Apr., 1956), pp.149-159Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the International African InstituteStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1156840 .

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[ I49

AN EXPERIMENT IN PUBLIC-OPINION POTiLING AMONG PRELITERATE PEOPLE'

M. G. MARWICK

OWARDS the end of I947 I carried out a public-opinion survey among the Cewa tribe of Fort Jameson district, Northern Rhodesia. Although the survey was a

failure, judged by the rigorous standards of public-opinion polling, it nevertheless threw light on some of the problems that arise when public-opinion-polling techniques are adapted for use among preliterate peoples. Research of this kind has a place in assessing general morale, in gauging people's reactions to administrative and development policies, and in supplementing the more intensive, but highly selective, observations of the social anthropologist. Because this is an important but almost untouched field, I am recording the lessons that are to be learned from my experiment.

The survey was made at the time when the Northern Rhodesia Government was starting a rural development scheme about twelve miles from the locality in which I had been doing social-anthropological research during the previous fifteen months. The objects of the survey were (a) to check quantitatively some of the impressions previously formed of Cewa attitudes and opinions and (b) to provide a datum from which to measure future changes in attitude and opinion that might be associated with the progress of the development programme. As yet there has been no opportunity of repeating the survey. This paper gives some idea of the modifications in method which would be necessary if that opportunity arose, and in a sense may be regarded as a report on a pilot study.

The scope of the investigation was defined by a schedule developed during trial interviews in the locality in which I was working. An English translation of the body of the final form appears in the Appendix. There were five questions (A-E) on each of five general fields (I-5) arranged in an order the rationale of which will be explained later. To these 25 questions were appended two crude social distance questions about each of seven groups or their divisions with which the Cewa come into contact or at least know by repute. At the head of the schedule were recorded certain characteristics of the informant (including the name of the interviewer); six of these were used in tabulation. The 25 opinion questions, 14 social distance questions, and 6 characteristics amounted to 45, which was the number of columns on the sorter used two years later.

I An earlier draft of this paper was read to the allowing me to use their Powers-Samas sorter; to Annual Conference of the South African Psycho- my wife for giving me a great deal of help at the logical Association in Durban in July I954. The time both of the field-work and of the tabulation; research on which it is based was carried out in and to Messrs. Cruise and Meggitt of the University October and November 1947, during my tenure of a of Natal and Drs. Biesheuvel and Armsen of the Colonial Social Science Research Fellowship. I wish National Institute for Personnel Research, Johannes- to record my indebtedness to the Colonial Social burg, for advice on statistical problems. Professor Science Research Council for sponsoring the general Leo Kuper, Dr. Hilda Kuper, Dr. Clyde Mitchell, and research of which this formed a part, to the Northern Dr. Desmond Reader have read the paper in draft. Rhodesia Government for allowing me to work in I am grateful to them for their helpful suggestions, Native areas, and to the officials of its Administration as I am to the members of the S.A. Psychological for much help and encouragement. My thanks are Association who contributed to the discussion that also due to the Director and Staff of the Leather followed the reading of my paper. Industries Research Institute, Grahamstown, for



AN EXPERIMENT IN PUBLIC-OPINION

The problems that had to be dealt with fall under the five headings that divide the rest of this paper, and were met in two ways. Firstly, I tried to adapt the established principles of public-opinion polling to the special conditions under which the work was being done. The fact that I was familiar with the language and culture of the people and had good rapport in one of the areas in which the survey was made facilitated this. Secondly, provision was made in my research design for estimating the effects of those difficulties which might prove insuperable.

I. Illiteracy of Informants The most direct effect that the illiteracy of informants has on public-opinion polling

is that it confines one to the interview as opposed to the questionnaire technique. Furthermore, since written words cannot be used, closed-end questions with more than three response choices (e.g. 'Yes', 'No', 'Don't know') are inadvisable lest the informant, being unable to memorize a large number of alternatives, should choose one that he happens to remember, rather than the one that most closely describes his response. Where it is likely that a question will elicit more than three types of answers, the informant's response to it may be recorded verbatim and classified afterwards. This, incidentally, has the advantage of bringing out spontaneous modes of expression and minimizing the 'planting' of answers.

2. Poorly Qualified Assistants A less direct consequence of widespread illiteracy is the absence in the community

of suitably qualified persons from whom interviewers of the same race and culture as the informants may be recruited. Among the Cewa not only is the general standard of education low, but there is a tendency for the more literate members of the community-the potential and actual clerks, messengers, and policemen-to develop overbearing attitudes that are detrimental to effective public-opinion polling. I had to do the best I could with the available personnel. I interviewed 6o informants my- self, and employed three African assistants (of local Std. V-VI qualification) who had either come to me straight from school or worked for me during their school holidays; they interviewed 103, 96, and 9 informants respectively.1

The first of the African assistants, whom I shall call Walter, was 22; and the second, Bruce, 21. Walter was highly intelligent, especially in social situations. He had a keen insight into others' points of view and interests, and an effective way of handling people. By contrast Bruce was colourless and obtuse. He had a tendency to accept as a response an answer that was a mere restatement of the question. For instance, in reply to the question (A2) 'Why are Africans poor? ', he obtained a significantly higher proportion in the response category in which ' Because they have no money ' was typical. In addition, he was careless and frequently omitted from the schedules particulars of informants' characteristics.

The first step taken to meet the problem of poorly qualified assistants was to give them as few opportunities as possible of using their own discretion. For instance, they were not required to classify informants' answers to the fifteen open-end questions included on the schedule, but merely to record them verbatim. The second step

I No further reference is made to the last of these, though the returns from his small sample have been included in the totals.

150o



POLLING AMONG PRELITERATE PEOPLE

was to train them in the use of the schedule and, when it could be done without disturbing their informants, to supervise their work. This supervision should have been stricter. There might have been fewer omissions of informants' characteristics if schedules had been edited in the field before we had lost contact with the informants, who remained anonymous.

A procedure for estimating the effects of this problem was the separate tabulation of interviewers' sub-samples. This provided a means of (a) estimating interviewer bias and (b) studying differential responses made to me and to the African assistants. The second of these will be discussed in relation to the next problem.

The results, a selection of which is given in the Table, showed many statistically significant differences between the response distributions of the two African interviewers whose sub-samples were large enough for comparisons to be made. This revealed a weakness in the design which is the main reason why it will not be possible to publish the results as public-opinion-poll findings without making important qualifications. If there had been more than two African interviewers with large enough sub-samples, each one could have been tested for bias by comparing his distributions with the combined results of the others. With only two it was impossible to determine which was biased. Over the whole series of schedule items there was greater agreement between Bruce and me than between Walter and me. Since, however, a variable other than interviewer bias was operating here, viz. differential response to white and African, and since there was no way of checking my own objectivity, it is impossible to establish beyond doubt that Bruce was the more objec- tive of the two African interviewers. Walter generally elicited more hostile, anti- white responses than Bruce, and this may show that he had better rapport. The reason for suspecting that Walter and not Bruce was biased, however, is the fact that there were occasions when certain of his interests-or his estimates of mine-suppressed his tendency to evoke anti-white responses. For instance, the responses he obtained to the question, 'Why are the Europeans sending [African] people to the resettlement areas? ' (Ai, see Table) showed a proportion of openly suspicious and hostile responses not reliably different from those obtained by other interviewers; and yet he obtained a very significantly higher proportion of responses that regarded the resettlement scheme as primarily a programme in agricultural education (a pro-white opinion). This was in line with a strong interest he happened to have in agricultural reform. Furthermore, as an examination of the Table will show, on those items where it was possible (viz. Bz, D5, and E5), he obtained significantly higher proportions in response categories showing a preoccupation with witch beliefs. This was probably due to his having divined my special interest in this field and exerted influence (probably through supplementary questions and other cues) on his batch of informants. If this is so, Walter's case is evidence that high social intelligence has its dangers as well as its advantages. The ideal interviewer would appear to need qualities falling somewhere between Bruce's stolid automatism and Walter's overstimulation.

3. Racial Differences Affecting Power Relations In the system of power relations obtaining in a colonial territory like Northern

Rhodesia one's physical features establish one's status. Africans identify all whites as members of the ruling caste of administrators, missionaries, and employers of labour.

I 5.I



AN EXPERIMENT IN PUBLIC-OPINION A SELECTION OF RESULTS ILLUSTRATING THE EFFECTS OF (A) INTERVIEWER

BIAS AND (B) DIFFERENTIAL RESPONSE TO WHITE AND AFRICAN INTERVIEWERS

Percentage distribution of replies to:

Critical ratios of differences (asterisks indicate degree of

significance-see note at foot of p. 153.)

Question: Answer or answer type

Question B2: What will happen to an

African who gets rich ? I. He'll buy cattle 2. He'll start a local

business 3. He'll buy clothes

and/or take to polygyny

4. He'll be killed by witchcraft

5. We can't get rich: we're black

6. Other answers and don't know

Question D5: Do certain Europeans kill

[African] people with medicines [including witchcraft] ? I. Yes 2. No 3. Don't know

Question E5: Are there more or fewer

witches nowadays than there were long ago ? 1. More now 2. More long ago 3. Don't know

Question EI: Will the Europeans take

more land from Africans or give them more land ? 1. They'll take more 2. They'll give more 3. Don't know

Question A : Why are the Europeans

sending [African] people to the resettlement areas ? i. To relieve pressure

on the old reserves by giving us more land

2. How should we know ? Only the Europeans know

3. To teach people new methods of agriculture

4. Openly suspicious or hostile response

5. Others

24'2

I2-7

iir6

10-5

30-5

6.7

3'3

i6.7

10'0

26-7

36-6

32-0

20-4

4'9

20-4

3'9

I8-4

29-2

Io-4

I6-7

I'o

7-3

35'4

100'0 100'0 100'0 100'0

26-1 8-3 43'7 14'7 631I 46-7 55'3 84'4

o0-8 45'0 1.o I. o

100'0 00-0 100-0 100-0

76'I 60oo 96-1 63-5 I6-4 10-0 3'9 34'4

7'5 30-0 0oo 21I

100o0 Io 00 0 1000 oo00

62-7 40-0 83'5 52-I 26-I 13'3 15'5 46-9 11.2 46-7 1lo 1I0

100-0 100o0 100-0 100-0

27.2 26-7 I7'5 36-5

22.8 38.3 2-9 36-5

I8.7 11.7 38.8 I. o

I9'4 I6.7 20-4 I9-8 II'9 6-6 20-4 6-2

152

All interviewers

(N = 268) Marwick (N = 60)

Walter (N = 103)

Bruce (N = 96)

1oo'o I00'0 I00-0 100-0




White-African relations are essentially authoritarian, a condition that militates against effective public-opinion polling by a white or white-sponsored interviewer. The informant tends to give an accommodating, anything-to-please response whenever he can.

The difficulties resulting from this very serious problem were met in some degree by my having lived among the Cewa during the fifteen months that preceded the survey. I had satisfactory rapport with potential informants in one of the two areas covered by the survey, viz. the Kagoro neighbourhood (of about a dozen large villages) of Chief Kawaza's country. As a research worker I had repeatedly emphasized that I was there to learn whatever the people would teach me, and that I had nothing to teach them or to ' sell'. My everyday activities of visiting people, making notes, and attending funerals and other social gatherings had been fully consistent with this explanation of my presence in the community. I had therefore been identified as an eccentric white who drank beer and listened to stories and probably had no ulterior motive like a desire to start a farm or bring about agricultural, educational, or religious reforms. On the score of power relations I had a general advantage, for purposes of public-opinion polling, over the administrator, and a specific one- affecting inquiries on religion, witchcraft, and education-over the missionary.

Knowledge of the local dialect was another advantageous factor both in the area where I was well known and in the one where I was unknown. I shall return to this point in the next section.

Three practical steps were taken to minimize the effects of status differences between interviewer and informant. Firstly, the interview was preceded by a statement that related the investigation to my other research work, urged frankness, and emphasized that no names would be asked or recorded. Secondly, the first fifteen items of the schedule consisted of open-end questions or ones where, though alternatives (never more than three) were provided, reasons for the choice of one of them were demanded. This procedure aimed at encouraging informants to make articulate statements rather than to respond in a stereotyped, mechanical, or accommodating way to alternatives offered them. Thirdly, the five questions on a particular topic were not presented in succession but were mixed, in the order in which they appear in the Appendix. This was in order to prevent the informant from becoming cumulatively

Note to table on p. I 2.

The following table gives an indication of the meanings that may be attached to the critical ratios shown in the last three columns of the table':

Number of times in a thousand that a difference of this magnitude may be expected to occur as a result Subjective description of

Code Value of critical ratio of' chance ', i.e. sampling fluctuations fairly wide currency'

Less than I-96 More than 50 ' Not significant' * -96 up to but not in- 50 down to but not including io ' Moderately significant'

cluding 2-58 ** 258 up to but not in- io down to but not including i ' Highly significant '

cluding 3-29 *** More than 3-29 Less than i 'Extremely significant'

See, for instance, M. J. Hagood, Statistics for Sociologists (New York: Holt, 1947), pp. 449-50 (citing G. W. Snedecor).

M

1 5 3




conscious of commenting on a particular policy or aspect of white administration. The numbering of the questions facilitated their rearrangement in the proper order.

Two steps were taken to estimate the effects of the problem of power relations on the results of the poll. Firstly, as we have seen, provision was made for the separate tabulation of interviewers' returns. This made possible a study of differential response to white and African interviewer. Secondly, the poll was divided almost equally between the Kagoro neighbourhood, in which I had good rapport, and Chief

Mbang'ombe's resettlement area about 2 5 miles away, in which I was quite unknown to most people and known only by repute to the remaining few.

It was difficult to estimate differential response to white and African interviewers because of the frequent reliable differences that occurred between Bruce's and Walter's

sub-samples. There were, however, some items where there was agreement between the two Africans who, in turn, obtained distributions reliably different from mine. On these items the trend was for informants to be more accommodating and evasive in their responses to me than to my assistants.' The following are examples of responses in respect of which my sub-sample showed reliably higher frequencies than did those of my assistants:

A3. Q. Would you like to send your children to a mission school or to a government school?

A. It depends on distance.

C3. Q. Suppose they came and asked you or your child to join the [Northern Rhodesia] Regiment: would you agree or refuse?

A. I'd let the child choose. D4. Q. Do the chiefs help people or trouble them?

A. I don't know.

Even where, as in the Table, there were significant differences between particular response frequencies in the two Africans' sub-samples, there was usually agreement between them on the 'Don't know' or evasive response types, which in their sub-

samples showed frequencies reliably lower than in mine. This needs no further

explanation in three of the items shown in the Table, viz. Nos. D5, Es, and EI. In B2, ' What will happen to an African who gets rich?', I had a reliably higher fre-

quency in the response category,' We can't get rich: we're black '-which may either

represent evasiveness or be caused by the contrast in wealth between me and my assistants.2

The results made available by the second step showed fewer differences than I had

expected between the responses of people in the area where I was well known and those in the one where I was a stranger. Of the 39 items on the schedule only io showed statistically reliable crude differences. Two of these, CI and C4 (see Appendix), could be related to actual differences between the two areas, which were not fully matched, and need not concern us here. With three others, A 5, C3, and E4, differences no longer remained significant when a correction was made for the fact that interviewers' sub-samples were not equally divided between the two areas. Of the remain-

' Mr. Cruise has pointed out that it is possible interviewer. that, since I had a tendency to select older inform- 2 I am grateful to Professor Leo Kuper for draw- ants (see below, p. I56), the differences obtained ing my attention to the second possibility. are related to informants' ages as well as to race of

154




ing five, all of which showed small but significant differences after correction, one showed a greater tendency in the area in which we were well known for informants to express hostility freely, viz.

D4. .. Do the chiefs help people or trouble them? A. They trouble them;

and four showed a greater tendency in the area in which we were unknown for informants to be evasive and accommodating, e.g.

Bs. Q. Do sick people like to go to the [government] hospital in Fort Jameson? A. It depends on distance.

4. Cultural Differences between Investigator and Informants In the last section we saw how the investigator's physical features may disturb

rapport with his informants. This would probably occur even if he were completely acculturated, which is unlikely in the circumstances we are implicitly assuming. Generally, cultural differences between investigator and informants are expressed in the spheres of language and conventional behaviour. The limitations imposed by linguistic differences are too obvious to need amplifying. I had to some extent over- come them by having learnt the local dialect (Cewa) as opposed to standard Nyanja which is spoken by many of the Europeans whom the Cewa meet; and I was able to conduct my interviews without the aid of an interpreter. Furthermore, my assistants were Cewa-speaking.

Differences in conventional behaviour, which may be as serious in their conse- quences as linguistic differences, were of two kinds: those relating to differing con- ceptions regarding the normal functions of question and answer and those relating to polite observances. In our society it is widely recognized that the function of a question is to demand information to which the questioner has, or assumes, a right; and that of an answer, to supply the information. We do, however, have other uses for them. 'How are you? '-' I'm fine: how arejyou?' is a verbal sequence which is intrinsically meaningless, although it performs the highly important function of expressing goodwill. It seems probable that in Cewa society the normal function of question and answer is of the expressive rather than the intrinsically meaningful kind. When people meet, they ask each other a great many questions, and it may well be that the actual content of a person's answers is less important than his willingness to answer. Applying this to public-opinion polling, we may note that it is important for the investigator not only to put his questions unambiguously (a matter of linguistic technique) but also to recognize which particular function they are performing.

In an attempt to establish my questions as demands for information and opinions and not merely as stimuli for expressions of goodwill I took heed of an informant's comment reported by an African assistant during the trial of the schedule. He had said, 'But this is work!'; and this prompted me to pay each informant 3d. for his interview, i.e. the equivalent at the time of about half a day's wage for what seldom took more than an hour of his time. This step, which was possible owing to Cewa familiarity with the institution of paid labour, had the advantage of placing the informant under a contractual obligation to answer the questions and not, for instance,

I 5 5



156 AN EXPERIMENT IN PUBLIC-OPINION

break off the interview with the well-worn excuse of having to go and find a lost beast or visit a sick relative.

As to polite observances, I had discovered, for instance, that Cewa are much more punctilious than other Nyanja-speakers in using the honorific plural in respectful address and reference to elders, headmen, and chiefs (a point sometimes missed by Europeans if they learn standard Nyanja). Furthermore, I was aware that one should call adult men ' father ', and women,' mother '; that it is polite to sit down as soon as

possible rather than to stand; and that it would be discourteous to record an informant's response without some such exclamation as ' Kodi ?' (Really ?), 'Inde' (Yes), or 'A-a! ' (Now you don't say 1). This last point presents a dilemma: should one be rude to informants by not showing what would be considered adequate interest in their responses, or should one risk introducing a bias by giving unconsciously, in the tone of an exclamation, a hint of one's own attitude or interest?

5. The Sample and Its Subsequent Evaluation

Two conditions determined the sampling policy. Firstly, I had no accurate know-

ledge of the attributes of my universe and, secondly, I had only a fortnight in which to complete the interviewing. The first condition necessitated an approximation to random rather than stratified sampling. The second condition prevented me from

using any effective randomizing technique because of the time that would have been

required to follow up persons not at home when we called at a village. I therefore

adopted the principle that we should interview whomever we found on arrival at a

village and should move on to another village after each of us had concluded three or four interviews.

It is clear that this principle did not give all persons in the universe equal chances of

being included in the sample; and some rough tests indicate that it did not in fact result in a representative sample. The more physically active had smaller chances of

being included because our working day included the mornings when, at this time of the year, they were probably busy in their gardens. Furthermore, each interviewer, although he was supposed to approach the first person he saw, nevertheless sometimes had to make a choice, especially in the afternoons when many people were available for his second and subsequent interviews at a particular village. Results indicate that in making this choice he was influenced by considerations of ease of social contact. Thus, as we shall see presently, in the sample, which was chosen by male interviewers, male informants were over-represented. Although Walter, Bruce, and I over-represented males to an almost identical degree, our sub-samples having practically the same masculinity, I differed reliably from both Walter and Bruce in my predilection for older informants. 60 per cent. of my sub-sample were over 40; where- as only 36 per cent. of Walter's and 24 per cent. of Bruce's fell into this category; and there were corresponding differences in the lower age categories. As I was about ten years senior to Walter and Bruce, selection may have been related to interviewers' ages (the difference between Walter's and Bruce's sub-sample in this respect is not statistically significant). Undoubtedly, however, my status both as a white and as the director of the survey played a part by making it more appropriate for headmen and elders to be interviewed by me rather than by my assistants.

I was able to submit the sample to other rough tests. From information obtained



POLLING AMONG PRELITERATE PEOPLE 157

during the subsequent field-work and from the crude returns of the I950 population sample count of the Central African Statistical Office' I was able to make independent estimates of some of the parameters of the universe, and compare these with the corresponding statistics of my sample. The masculinity rate of the adult population of the local villages included in the 1950 population count was 43 males per Ioo females; that of my sample was I I 5. The literacy rate estimated from my hut censuses and another source2 was from 26 to 33 per cent. of adults; that of my sample was 48 per cent. The percentage of baptized Christians, according to my independent estimates, was between I5 and 20 per cent. of adults; that of my sample was 30 per cent. Since both literacy and evangelization show sex differentiation, the rates for my sample, when standardized for sex, drop to 27 and 29.5 per cent. respectively, thus coming nearer to the independent estimates.

The sample thus appears to have had a marked bias towards masculinity and lesser ones towards literacy and evangelization. In a community in which an authoritative position is held by men and by those who have experienced contact with the European way of life, these biases are probably not serious defects. Where, as in rural Ireland,3 the public opinion of the countryside is shaped by comparatively small coteries of 'big people' (to use the Cewa expression), a sample of this kind may be a truer index of stable, long-term opinions than a more generally representative one.

The fact remains that the sample was not a random one. If the survey were re- peated, I should try to avoid this defect by interviewing all the adult inhabitants of a number of randomly selected villages.4 This would inevitably increase the scale of the investigation, but would constitute one of the two essential steps needed to raise the techniques described in this paper to a higher level of scientific precision. The other step would be an increase in the number of African interviewers.

APPENDIX

English Translation of the Schedule Items

AI. Why are the Europeans sending [African] people to the resettlement areas? A2. Why are Africans poor? A3. Would you like to send your children to a mission school or a government school? A4. Where does the money accruing from tax go ? A5. Do sick people like to go to a mission hospital? Why? BI. Do the Europeans of the Agricultural Department help people or trouble them? B2. What will happen to an African who gets rich? B3. What is a good kind of work to do for a European? Why? B4. Would it be possible for people to give up living in villages and for each one to live

near to his garden with his wife and children? Why? B5. Do sick people like to go to the [government] hospital in Fort Jameson? Why?

I The Statistical Office kindly placed these figures ing me to read his report on this survey and for per- at my disposal when I was in Salisbury in February mission to make this reference to it. 1953. 3 Cf. C. M. Arensberg, The Irish Countryman (New

2 A literacy survey carried out by Mr. (now Dr.) York: Macmillan, I937), chap. iv. J. Bruwer, Principal of the Dutch Reformed Church 4 I realize that this is not an easy solution to the Mission's Normal School at Katete (now Senior problem. Cf. M. J. Hagood, Statisticsfor Sociologists Lecturer in Bantu Studies at the University of (New York: Holt, I941), pp. 409-I0. Stellenbosch). I am grateful to Dr. Bruwer for allow-




Ci. Why are the Europeans making a village for themselves [the Development Head- quarters] near Mr. Gardner's farm?

C2. Suppose you went on a journey to work: where is a good place to go and work? C3. Suppose they came and asked you or your child to join the [Northern Rhodesia] Regi-

ment: would you agree or refuse ? Why ? C4. Is it better to live in a big village or a small village ? Why ? C5. Why do people not like pit latrines ? Di. Who know more about agriculture, the elders or the Europeans? D2. Do Africans get a good price for maize and garden vegetables nowadays? D3. Suppose that a person is a witch and he becomes a Christian: does that mean that

now he'll give up being a witch ? D4. Do the chiefs help people or trouble them? D5. Do certain Europeans kill Africans with medicines [including witchcraft] ? Ei. Will the Europeans take more land from the Africans or give them more land? E2. Are there any Europeans who want Africans to become rich? E3. Would it be good or bad if all Cewa became Christians ? E4. Is polygyny more common nowadays than it was long ago? E5. Are there more witches nowadays than there were long ago ? FI. If it were possible would you chase INDIANS from this country or would you allow

them to remain in it ? F2. Would you rejoice if all INDIANS died? GI. If it were possible would you chase NGONI from this country or would you allow them

to remain in it ? G2. Would you rejoice if all NGONI died ? Hi. If it were possible would you chase GOVERNMENT EUROPEANS from this country or

would you allow them to remain in it ? H2. Would you rejoice if all GOVERNMENT EUROPEANS died? II. If it were possible would you chase EUROPEAN FARMERS from this country or would

you allow them to remain in it ? Iz. Would you rejoice if all EUROPEAN FARMERS died? J i. If it were possible would you chase EUROPEAN MISSIONARIES from this country or would

you allow them to remain in it? J2. Would you rejoice if all EUROPEAN MISSIONARIES died ? Ki. If it were possible would you chase PORTUGUESE from this country or would you allow

them to remain in it ? K2. Would you rejoice if all PORTUGUESE died? Li. If it were possible would you chase HALF-CASTES from this country or would you allow

them to remain in it ? L2. Would you rejoice if all HALF-CASTES died ?

Resume UNE EXPIERIENCE SUR LE SONDAGE DE L'OPINION PUBLIQUE PARMI LES

PEUPLES ANALPHABITES

UNE enquete sur l'opinion publique parmi les Cewa a ete entreprise vers la fin de 1947, lorsque le gouvernement de la Rhodesie du Nord a mis en ceuvre un projet de developpement rural, pros de l'endroit ou pendant les quinze mois precedents l'auteur etait engage a faire des recherches sociologiques-ethnologiques. Si l'on en juge par les normes rigou- reuses des sondages de l'opinion publique, l'etude n'a pas reussi, mais elle a eclairci quelques-

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POLLING AMONG PRELITERATE PEOPLE I59 uns des problemes susceptibles de se presenter lorsqu'on cherche a faire une enquete de ce genre parmi des peuples analphabetes. Les buts de l'etude etaient de verifier quelques-unes des impressions congues precedemment concernant les points de vue et les opinions des Cewa et de fournir une base a partir de laquelle on pourrait determiner les modifications futures susceptibles d'etre associees avec le projet de developpement. Une liste a etC redigee sur la base d'entretiens d'essai, comprenant des questions generales reparties d'apres un schema special avec, en plus, deux questions relatives aux perturbations sociales dues a des groupes de gens tels que les Europeens, les Indiens, les Ngoni, etc., avec lesquels les Cewa etaient mis en contact, ou qu'ils connaissaient de reputation. L'une des difficultes rencon- trees etait l'analphabetisme des personnes fournissant les renseignements, ce qui necessitait le remplacement du questionnaire par l'entretien, et rendait inopportune l'utilisation de questions auxquelles il y avait plus de trois reponses possibles. Une autre difficulte etait le manque de competence des aides, car le niveau general d'instruction parmi les Cewa est tres bas et ceux qui savent lire et ecrire ont tendance a prendre des attitudes autoritaires qui sont prejudiciables aux sondages efficaces de l'opinion publique. Finalement, deux aides africains furent choisis et formes dans l'emploi de la liste de questions, mais on ne leur a pas demande de classifier les reponses des personnes informatrices. Les resultats ont montre des differences significatives du point de vue de la statistique entre les reponses qu'ils ont obtenues, mais il etait impossible de determiner lequel des deux etait fautif, etant donnd qu'il y avait, egalement, une difference entre les reponses faites aux interrogateurs europeens et africains. I1 doit etre signale, cependant, que le plus intelligent des deux Africains a obtenu une proportion nettement plus forte de reponses positives a des questions auxquelles il s'interessait lui-meme, ou auxquelles il savait que l'auteur s'interessait. Les differences raciales qui militent contre les sondages efficaces de l'opinion publique par des interrogateurs europeens, ou patronnes par des Europeens, ont etC surmontees jusqu'a un certain point en raison du fait que l'auteur avait vecu parmi les Cewa pendant quelque temps avant l'enquete et qu'il connaissait leur langue. Dans le but de surmonter l'influence des differences de statut, les entretiens etaient lies aux travaux precedents de l'auteur et on a insiste qu'aucun nom ne serait demande ni enregistre. Un systeme de paiement pour les entretiens a ete intro- duit dans un effort de faire considerer les questions comme des demandes de renseignements et d'opinions plutot que des echanges habituels de civilites, bien que l'auteur ait pris soin de se conformer, autant que possible, au comportement attendu dans de telles circonstances. Il est souligne qu'il n'est pas possible de considerer l'etude comme une veritable enquete aupres de personnes choisies au hasard, puisqu'elle a ete realisee dans une quinzaine de jours et que l'on ne disposait pas du temps necessaire pour trouver les gens qui n'etaient pas chez eux. L'analyse des resultats indique que dans le choix des personnes a interroger il y avait un biais marque en faveur du sexe masculin et, dans un degre moindre, vers les gens sachant lire et ecrire et vers les chretiens. Au cas ou l'on procederait a une nouvelle enquete de ce genre, une tentative devrait etre faite pour interroger tous les habitants adultes de plusieurs villages selectionnes au hasard; le nombre d'interrogateurs africains devrait egalement etre augmenta.



Documents

An Experiment in Public-Opinion Polling among Preliterate People