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An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Developmentand Changing Climate

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Publication date:2015

Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of record

Link back to DTU Orbit

Citation (APA):Löwe, R. (Author), Urich, C. (Author), Sto Domingo, N. (Author), Mark, O. (Author), & Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.(Author). (2015). An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development andChanging Climate. 2D/3D (physical products), DTU Environment.

An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate Löwe, R.1, Urich, C.2, Sto. Domingo, N.D.F3, Mark, O.3, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.1

1 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark 2 Faculty of Engineering, Monash University, Australia 3 DHI Water and Environment, Denmark

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2 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark

Planning for long-term

What do we want, and, how to get there?

Vision / Strategy

Social Barriers

• community preferences

• stakeholder preferences

• institutional framework

Future uncertainties

• Societal preferences, government agendas,…

• Climate change

• Urban development

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3 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark

Planning for long-term

from: Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., ter Maat, J., 2013. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Glob. Environ. Chang. 23, 485–498. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006

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Model A

A Modelling Framework to Assess Strategies Services

Drivers

drinking water supply

cooling

ecology

protection from

flooding

future climate urban

development societal

preferences

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Data management and decision support tool

Model B

Model C

Model D

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A Modelling Framework to Assess Strategies

Urban development Model

(DANCE4WATER)

1D-2D Hydraulic Model (MIKE FLOOD) adaptation options

(with location and extent)

damage assessment for each option

cost-benefit assessment

for each option

green roofs

pipes

rainwater harvesting

external drivers (climate)

implement in MIKE

flood hazard (depth,velocity)

benefits and investment cost

high-level trends

urban development

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An Australian Case Study Scotchman’s Creek Catchment

• 780 ha

• residential, strong densification 1963 to 2010 and on-going

• urban development scenarios: business as usual (BAU), no development in flood prone areas (PEN)

• urban development here as change of impervious area and vulnerability

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7 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark

An Australian Case Study Urban Development

BAU PEN

c.f.: Urich, C., Rauch, W., 2014. Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties. Water Res. 66C, 374–389. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2014.08.020

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An Australian Case Study

Total Impervious Area Expected Annual Damage

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Open Questions • urban development in a different context (de-densification, different city

structure) • required complexity for the urban development model

• coupling hydraulic and urban development model (excluding waterways as development areas…)

• hydraulic simulation: stability, simulation speed

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10 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark

Emulation of Flood Hazard 1D-2D Hydraulic

Model (MIKE FLOOD)

n-dimensional inputs: • rainfall • sealevel • urban development • …

conceptual model for network and surface

(emulator)

many simulations

few simulations

(Bayesian) updating

flood hazard

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11 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark

Integration with Other Disciplines

visions of stakeholders and community

modelling framework that allows systematic testing of

strategies (policies, infrastructure, urban

form)

inform visions and strategies from model results

Systematic Evaluation of strategies and evelopment

of adaptation pathways

School of Social Sciences (Monash

University)

Faculty of Engineering (Monash University),

DTU Environment (DTU)

Dept. of Water Science and Engineering (Unesco-IHE)

Thank you! rolo@env.dtu.dk