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AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Director Strategic Projects | CEO Office

AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

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Page 1: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING:

THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK

Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)

Director Strategic Projects | CEO Office

Page 2: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

lots and lots of data…

9/2008

10/2009

2/2011

3/2010 7/2011

2

7/2014

Page 3: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Data as a National Resource

NSF Director Suresh’s emphasis on:

• “Era of Observations”

• “Era of Data and Information”

March 2012: White House $200M “Big Data” initiative:

• NSF

• NIH

• DOE

• DOD

• DARPA

• USGS

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Page 4: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Increasing importance on designing new x-discipline data structures to support policy/decision-making

Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs)

Grand Challenge for Environmental Sciences

Questions of societal importance within and among these SBAs

Understanding Earth System requires information integration

Broad Adoption and Evolution of Cultures

WeatherAgriculture Biodiversity Climate Disasters EnergyEcosystems WaterHealth

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Global themes – Global Solutions

Page 5: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

OUTLINE

NEON Grand Challenges

Overview Design and Design Process of NEON

Ecological Forecasting

Interoperability and International Efforts

NEON Institutional Structure

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Page 6: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Grand Challenge areas

1. Biodiversity

2. Biogeochemical cycles

3. Climate change

4. Ecohydrology

5. Infectious disease

6. Invasive species

7. Land use

NRC (National Research Council). 2001. Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences. Washington DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2003. NEON: Addressing the Nation’s Environmental Challenges. Washington DC: National Academies Press.

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Page 7: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Grand Challenge areas

How will ecosystems [of the United States] and their components respond to changes in natural- and human-induced forcings such as climate, land use, and invasive species across a range of spatial and temporal scales? And, what is the pace and pattern of the responses?

How do the internal responses and feedbacks of biogeochemistry, biodiversity, hydroecology and biotic structure and function interact with changes in climate, land use, and invasive species? And, how do these feedbacks vary with ecological context and spatial and temporal scales?

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Page 8: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Grand Challenge areas

The goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of the impacts of climate change, land use change and invasive

species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to support research, education and environmental management in

these areas.

Responses

InteractionsFeedbacksForcing

Abiotic drivers of ecological and

biological change.

Processes mediating the response of ecological systems, feedbacks

influencing the drivers

Ecological and organismal responses.

Biotic processes

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Page 9: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Balancing Scientific Creativity with Baseline measurements

• Hypotheses testing: ‘what can we do?’

• Rationale for long term observations

• Capabilities-based (network development)

• Additional organizational complexity is often layered

ProCon

✔ Scientific creativity

✔ ✕ Comfort-level for scientists and bottom-up approaches

✕ Complexity becomes open-ended problem

✕ Governance is often difficult, and not extensible

✕ Difficult planning for Program Officers/Sponsors

✕ Problematic for long term sustainability

Questions

Grant

Exp Design

Construction

Data Collection

Analyses

Publications

Move on to the next thing

Scientist’s Approach to Project Science

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Page 10: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

NEON’s Scientific / System Engineering Approach

Environmental Science Questions(Hypothesis Based Questions)

Identify Needed Information(What are the Data Products?)

Science Requirements(Science Sub-System Requirements)

Technical and Design Requirements (e.g., for Engineering, CyberInfrastructure)

REQUIREMENTS

I NFORMA T I ON

Grand Challenge Science Questions

Raw Data Collection

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Page 11: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Balancing Scientific Creativity with Baseline measurements

Questions (scientists)

Grant (scientists)

Exp Design (scientists)

Construction (Engineering,

Permitting)

Data Collection (Engineering

Analyses (scientists)

Publications (scientists)

• Formalized hierarchical requirements

• Asks ‘what must be done?’

• Measurements are considered baseline

• Steps are parsed out (see diagram)

ProCon

✔New roles for scientists, both internally and externally

✔Clearly defines scope, budget, schedule, risks

✔Complexity is inherently planned for

✔Develops planning horizons for Program Officers/Sponsors

✔ Fosters long term sustainability

✔ ✕Requirement approach does not necessarily impose a single unique solution

Systems Engineering Approach

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Page 12: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Scientist RolesCapabilities based

(networks)• “What can we do?”• PI driven – grant

structure• Strong scientific creativity• Deliverable ‘themes’• Discovery/experiments• Open ended

Requirements based (infrastructure)

• What must be done?”• Community engagement• Mature baseline science• Well defined deliverables• Science sustainment• Manage costs/risk/scope

Examples• LTER + iLTER• AmeriFlux – Fluxnet• BASIN• CZO• Carbo-Europe

Examples• NSF Observatories• DOE ARM• NOAA US CRN• LHC at CERN• [NASA] Satellites

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Page 13: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

NEON site design

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Page 14: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

NEON Domain themes

Agriculture Climate Forest systems

Invasion biology Urban ecology Aquatic

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Page 15: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

NEON Science Sub systems (alphabet soup)

FSU Fundamental Sentinel Unit Human Obs. Bioarchive

FIU Fundamental Instrument Unit Automated Instrumentation

AOP Airborne Observation Package

Aircraft Remote Sensing

AQU Aquatic/STREONHuman Obs/automated

instrumentation

DPS Data Products Community-vetted ensembled DPs and

Models

LUAP Land Use Analysis Package Satellite Remote Sensing +

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Page 16: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Fundamental Sentinel Unit

• Biodiversity• Population Dynamics• Productivity• Phenology• Infectious Disease• Biogeochemistry• Microbial Diversity and Function• Ecohydrology

• **Sentinel Species**

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Page 17: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Fundamental Sentinel Unit

Microbes

Mosquitoes

Beetles

Small Mammals

Birds

Fish

Aquatic Invertebrates

Plants

Generation Time

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Generalized Terrestrial Sampling Scheme

Page 19: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Fundamental Instrument Unit

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Page 20: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Instrumented measurements

• Temperature

• Moisture

• Heath flux

• Raditation

• CO2

• Root growth and phenology

Page 21: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Fundamental Instrument Unit

• Physical and chemical climate forcing

• Ecosystem responses • Stand/plot level sampling• Automated instrumentation• Micrometeorological scalars

and fluxes• Soil array• Over 2000 measurements per

core site at frequencies of • Daily, and ~0.1 to 20 Hz• Total 50 Tb y-1

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Page 22: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Airborne Observing Platform (AOP)

Three airborne remote sensing payloads:– Waveform-LiDAR

altimeter– Imaging spectrometer– High-resolution digital

camera– GPS-Inertial

measurement unit Leased Twin Otter aircraft Instrumentation

maintenance and calibration facility

Science and flight operations

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Page 23: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Airborne Observing PlatformWaveform Light Detection and Ranging

+High-fidelity Imaging Spectroscopy

What are we after?• Detailed chemical, structural and

taxonomic information on ecosystems at fine spatial resolution

• Sampling at the scale of individual organisms (~<0.5m) over 400 sq. km around NEON sites

• Bridge the scales from organisms (i.e., trees or shrubs) as captured by plot sampling, to stand scale observations as measured from flux towers, to the scale of satellite based remote sensing

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Page 24: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Combined AIS / STREON Reach

Groundwater Well

Junction Box

Met Station

In-Stream Sensor Mount

PORTAL

Stream flow directionS1 STR S2S2 STR S1

STREON

Baskets

STREON

Baskets

Aquatic Reach STREON Reach

Nutrient Addition System

2nd - Nutrient Addition System if reach is longer

than 200m

PORTAL

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Page 25: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Scaling Strategy

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Page 26: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

I would be remiss…..

Data Portal (http://data.neoninc.org) - all data open and free

Large suites of Data Products (www.neoninc.org/science/data) Education and Outreach Program State-of-the-Art Calibration and Validation Lab National and International Development 20 Field Labs across the US

Assignable Assets Calibration and Validation Service New data products Additional Instrumentation Mobile Instrument Platforms Third Airborne Platform etc

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Page 27: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Ecological Observatory

• Information infrastructure: Consistent, continental, long-term, multi-scaled data-sets and data products that serve as a context for research and education.

• Physical Infrastructure: A research platform for investigator-initiated sensors, observations, and experiments providing physical infrastructure, cyberinfrastructure, human resources, and expertise, and program management and coordination.

The overarching goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of climate change, land

use change, and invasive species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to support research

in these areas.

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Page 28: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Ecological Observatory

• Cause and Effect Paradigm

• Scale in Time and Space – (from 20 Hz to 30 y, and from microbe to continent)

• Provide the data to enable an Ecological Forecasting

The overarching goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of climate change, land

use change, and invasive species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to support research

in these areas.

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Page 29: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Ecological Forecasting

Aligned with establishing a baseline understanding now!!

Casts the cause and effect paradigm of NEON into understanding present and future states of ecosystems:

What is the most likely future state of an ecological system?

Provides an applied context of ‘what-if’ given a decision made today?

Provides a conceptual framework that can be applied to all elements in managing ecosystems: theory, exp design, experiments, implementation, infrastructure, data products

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Page 30: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Ecological Forecasting

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Page 31: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

How are ecological forecasting, experiments, and observations related?

The need for observations of the starting point (now)The need for quantitative information about specific processes

-- particularly non-linear and stochastic processes (temperature sensitivity, susceptibility to drought, tipping points…)

• Estimates of system state• Information on process parameters• Experiments/process studies to elucidate unknown

processes and non-linear responses• Observations collected systematically over time and space to

challenge iterative forecasts A paradigm for ecological research?31

Page 32: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

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Science Developments• Data flows:

− Command, Control, Configuration

− Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents

− Automated QA/QC

− Data product catalogs

• Sponsored Workshops− Phenocam Network: Envisioning the future of near-surface remote sensing

− Isotope Ecology: Accelerating the integration of NEON data in isotope ecology research

•Notable Meetings: − American Geophysical Union

− Ecological Society of America

− Entomological Society of America

− Biodiversity Information Working Group

− Soil Science Society

NEON, Inc. Update

Page 33: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Aligning Science Questions and Hypotheses, Requirements, Mission Statements

Traceability of Measurements

Algorithms/Procedures

Informatics

• Mapping Questions to ‘what must be done’ • Defines Joint Science Scope / Knowledge Gaps• define interfaces among respective

Infrastructures

• What is the algorithm or procedural process to create a data product?

• Provides “consistent and compatible” data

• Managed through intercomparisons• What are their relative

uncertainties?

• Use of Recognized Standards• Traceability to Recognized Standards,

or First Principles• Known and managed signal:noise• Managing QA/QC• Uncertainty budgets

• Standards – Data / Metadata formats• Persistent Identifiers / Open-source• Discovery tools / Portals• Ontologies, semantics and controlled

vocabularies

1.

2.

3.

4.

Interoperability Framework

Page 34: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Informatics -- Building Block Approach

• Data / Metadata formats• Discipline specific Data Formats• ISO 19115 (29115) compliant• EML

• Persistent Identifiers • Time series / sos• Attribution / Publications• Community Acceptance• Data Providence

• Ontologies, Semantics and Controlled Vocabularies

• Discipline Specific• e.g., BCO, OWL, PCO etc

• Data Policies• Community acceptance• Open-source

• Data Management• Plans and accountability• Archival Policy

• Data Sovereignty

• Intellectual Property Rights• Individual / Institutional

• Discovery tools / Portals• Ease of use• Interoperable / Harmonized

Page 35: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

Emergent bottom-up Networks

• EREN — Ecological Research as Education Network

Laurie Anderson erenweb.org/

• FunDivEurope—Functional Significance of Forest Biodiversity in Europe (also Biodepth-Jena)

Michael Scherer-Lorenzen

www.fundiveurope.eu

• GLEON — Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network

Kathleen Weathers www.gleon.org/

• iLTER — Long Term Ecological Network

Scott Collins www.lternet.edu/

• Biosphere Atmosphere Stable Isotope Network

Todd Dawson basin.yolasite.com/

• NPN — USA-National Phenology Network

Elizabeth Wolkovich www.usanpn.org

• USDA National Soil Carbon Network Chris Swantson www.fluxdata.org/nscn/SitePages/Home

• NTSG — Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group

Bill Smith www.ntsg.umt.edu/

• NutNet — Nutrient Network Eric Lind www.nutnet.org/

• TraitNet — Trait Network (also BioMERGE)

Dan Bunker traitnet.ecoinformatics.org

• ZEN — Zostera Ecological Network Pamela Reynolds zenscience.org/

Page 36: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

NEON Focused InteractionsEuropean Union (18 member countries in ICOS)

Italy – Ecosystem Thematic CenterFinland – Governance and PMGermany – Calibration and ValidationNorway – intercomparison

European Union (COOPEUS) - Lifewatch

Australia – TERN

France – EU ESFRI INRA ANAEE

Mexico and Canada – CarboNA + MexFlux

Korea – KEON + KoFlux + AsiaFlux

China – CERN

Page 37: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

R+RA CA

Abbreviated Institutional Structure – community engagement for research infrastructure

NEON Inc 501©3

Board of Directors

CEO

STEAC

National Science Foundation

Project ManagerProject Scientist

Observatory Director

MREFC CA

MREFC CAR+RA CA

CO

MM

ISS

ION

ING

TR

AN

SIT

ION

The NEON ObservatoryOperations

Constrained activity

The NEON ProjectConstruction

Constrained activity

Assignable Assets• Airborne Platform• + Instrumentation• MDP• Biol. Samples/Plots• Cal/Val

Science Systems designed with limited community interface• Workshops• Working groups

Strategic ProjectsDirector

Scientific Community

Other Resources

NEON IncDevelopment Activities

Open-ended activity

Examples• NEON Satellite Sites• Interoperability• New Experiments• New Infrastructure• International• Training Activities

CO

LL

AB

OR

AT

IVE

PR

OC

ES

S

Page 38: AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory

The National Ecological Observatory Network is a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed under cooperative agreement by NEON Inc.