Analysis of Acrylic Fiber Industry & Development of …7th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum 1 中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会 Analysis of

Analysis of Acrylic Fiber Industry & Development of New Type Fibers

Shen Xibin

Secretary General

Acrylic Fiber Commission of China Chemical Fiber Association

7th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum

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中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会

Analysis of Acrylic Fiber Industry &

Development of New Type Fibers

Mar 2010

Shanghai

Theme



Content

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3

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World Acrylic Fiber Industry

China Acrylic Fiber Industry

New Acrylic Fiber Products


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中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会


� Acrylic fiber is honored "artificial wool", but its price is lower than wool

and it is the best alternative of wool and cashmere; it can also be blended with

polyester fiber, viscose fiber, cotton and other fibers to make a variety of

exquisite fabrics, artificial fur and industrial products; it is widely used, as many

domains need acrylic fiber.

Preface

Acrylic Fiber & Wool

Wool Acrylic Fiber$/kg



� In early 1950s, acrylic fiber industry realized industrialization in the world,

and then developed quickly in 60s and 70s, but in 80s, its development slowed

down due to energy and environmental issues as well as the challenge from

advancing modification technology for synthetic fibers. In early 90s, acrylic fiber

production began to increase affected by the output cuts of cotton, but thereafter

the production declined due to the price hike of feedstock. Since 90s, acrylic

fiber production has been hovering up. So far, more than forty enterprises in

twenty-one countries or regions are engaged in the production of acrylic fiber,

with a total capacity of around 2,680 kt/year and a total production of about

2,400kt/yr. ../World's Acrylic Fiber, AN Capacity Table.doc



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1、World Acrylic Fiber Industry Development ForecastData source: worid petrochemicals.SRI consulting


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2017

Capacity Demand



2、Asia becomes the world’s center of production and consumption of acrylic fiber.China, India and other countries in Asia has replaced Europe and the U.S. as the new

production and consumption centers of world's acrylic fiber, with production and consumption reaching 1,560kt and 1,600kt respectively, accounting for 59% and 61% of world’s total. It is expected that the growth rate will be at 2% in next five years.

Asian Acrylic Fiber Production and Consumption to the World's Total

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012 2017

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% Asian Production Asian Consumption Production Proportion Consumption Proportion


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3、China is the world's largest AF production and consumption baseChina has 910kt/yr AF capacity, accounting for 28% of the world's total

(see bar chart below), and the consumption volume is over 1000kt per year, accounting for about 40% of the world's total.

World’s Acrylic Fiber Capacity

Africa 1%

China28%

M.&E. Europe 6%

Middle East

12%

N.America3%

W. Europe

16% C&S America

3%Asia (except China)

31%



4、Consumption StructureWorld's Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure

61%27%

12%

Textiles & GarmentsDecorationIndustry & Others


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1、Capacity Producer Production Process Capacity Remark

1 Daqing Petrochem AcrylicFiber Plant NaSCN Two-step 65

2 Shanghai Petrochem, AcrylicFiber Department NaSCN one or two-step 160

3 Anqing Petrochem AcrylicFiber Plant NaSCN Two-step 70

4 Daqing R&C, Acrylic FiberPlant

NaSCN Two-step 30 Down since Jan 08

5 Jilin Qifeng Chemical Fiber DMAC Two-step 140（85） Partly innovated

6 Jilin Jimont Acrylic Fiber DMAC Two-step 100

7 Hangzhou Bay Acrylic Fiber DMAC Two-step 70

8 Ningbo Rayon Chemical Fiber DMAC Two-step 55 Down since Apr 09

9 PetroChina, Fushun AcrylicFiber Plant

DMF Two-step, dry 60

10 Qilu Acrylic Fiber Plant DMF Two-step, dry 60

11 Qinhuangdao Alight AcrylicFiber Plant

DMF Two-step, dry 55 Down since May 08

12 Zhejiang Jinyong AcrylicFiber Plant DMF Two-step, dry 50 Down since Sep 08

Total 915 / 670



700

815

915 915

670

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1. Capacity (kt/yr)



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719790.9 793.1

608.4680

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2. Production (kt)



2008：66.5%

2007：86.7%

2006：97.3%

2005：102.7%

66.5608.399152008

101.56806702009

86.77939152007

97.37918152006

102.77197002005

Operating Rate %

Production （kt）

Capacity(kt/yr)

Year

3. Operating Rate

2009：101.5%



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4. Production, Import/export, Apparent Demand

-30.5%-32774410.01466082008

--6700.82574141999

+23.4%+1578270.93534752000

+7.9%+658921.43745192001

+14.0%+12510170.54235942002

+6.8%+6910860.84586292003

+3.9%+3311191.74596622004

+14.6%+1098535.1179.96782009

-4.8%-5510712.52817932007

-4.7%-5611262.2337791 2006

+5.6%+6311822.1465719 2005

Change %Year-on-Year (kt)

Apparent Demand

Export Vol. (kt)

Import Vol. (kt)

Production (kt)



414475 519

594 629 662719

791 793

608678

257353 374

423 458 459 465

337281

146 179.9

0.8 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 10 5.1

670

827892

10171086 1119

11821126

1071

744853

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

Production Import Vol. Export Vol. Apparent Demand


2009 Actual Demand = 853 + 26 (stock consumption) = 880 kt.


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5. Capacity compared with demand


7 0 0 8 1 5 9 1 5 9 15

6 7 0

1 18 2 1 1 261 07 1

74 485 3

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 4 0 0

200 5 200 6 20 07 20 08 2 009

k t C ap acityD em a nd

In 2008, the production exceeded demand, with over-supply, which triggered domestic enterprises to make deep reshuffle, such as four enterprises ceased production and reduced output by 190kt. But entering 2009, demand was greater than production in China, and it was expected the situation would be maintained for a very long time.


6. Self-sufficiency

81.72 744101466082008

79.48535.1179.96782009

74.04 10712.52817932007

70.25 11262.23377912006

60.83 11822.14657192005

59.16 11191.74596622004

57.92 10860.84586292003

58.41 10170.54235942002

58.18 8921.43745192001

57.44 8270.93534752000

61.79 6700.82574141999

Self-sufficiency %

Apparent demand (kt)Export Vol. (kt)Import Vol. (kt)Production (kt)



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61.79

57.44 58.18 58.41 57.9259.16

60.83

70.25

74.04

81.7279.4

50

60

70

80

90

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Self-sufficiency


7. China capacity and demand to world total


26%35%33%33%

25%

41%40%45%45% 45%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

kt

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%World CapacityWorld DemandChina Capacity ratioChina Demand ratio

7th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fib er Forum

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8. Import Vol. & Demand


1 1 8. 21 1 2. 6

1 0 7.1

7 4 .4

8 6

18 .01 4 . 6

2 8 .13 3 .7

4 6 .5

3 9 .3 %

2 9 .9 %2 6.2 %

1 9.6 % 2 0 .9 %

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

10 0

12 0

14 0

20 0520 0520 0520 05 2 00 62 00 62 00 62 00 6 2 00 72 00 72 00 72 00 7 200 8200 8200 8200 8 20 0920 0920 0920 09

kt

0 %

1 0%

2 0%

3 0%

4 0%

5 0%

6 0%

7 0%

8 0%

I m p o r t V o l .I m p o r t V o l .I m p o r t V o l .I m p o r t V o l . D e m a n dD e m a n dD e m a n dD e m a n d

I m p o r t r a t i oI m p o r t r a t i oI m p o r t r a t i oI m p o r t r a t i o



9. Consumption Structure

World's Consumption Structure

61%27%

12%

Textiles & Garments

Decoration

Industry & Others

China Consumption Structure

70%

27%

3%

Textiles & Garments

Decoration

Industry & Others


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10. Offline enterprises in the past two years

kt

Producer Production ProcessCapacity Remark

1 Daqing R&C Acrylic Fiber Plant NaSCN Two-step 30Down since Jan 08

2 Ningbo Rayon Chemical Fiber DMAC Two-step 55 Down since Apr 09

3 Qinhuangdao Alight Acrylic Fiber DMF Dry-spinning 55 Down since May 08

4 Zhejiang Jinyong Acrylic Fiber Plant DMF Dry-spinning 50 Down since Sep 08

Total 190

Ningbo Rayon and Qinhuangdao Alight have no acrylonitrile facilities, so the two are lack of integration advantage; Daqing R& C is far away from the distribution center of China's textile industry, so it has no geographic advantage; Zhejiang Jinyong’ production process is relatively weak in competition.



11. Price Comparison for Acrylic fiber, ACN, PSF

PSF

Unit: Y/T From to

ACN AF(First-grade)


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Acrylic Staple Y/T Polyester Staple 1.4D*38mm Y/T



Acrylic Staple Y/T Viscose Staple 1.5D/38mm Y/T

7th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fib er Forum

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Capacity 620 650 650 700 815 915 915 835 835

Demand 1016 1086 1119 1182 1126 1071 744 1182 1280

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012 2017

12. China Acrylic Fiber Development Forecast

Data Source: worid petrochemicals.SRI consulting

(kt)


1、、、、From the consumption structure, China acrylic fiber industry is

potential in the decoration and industrial sectors.

2、、、、China market demand exceeds supply (relying on imports, while less

exports and low self-sufficiency), so it has development potential.

3、、、、Few value-added products，，，，so differentiated products have large

potential market.

4、、、、Less possibility of acrylic fiber further replaced by polyester fiber etc.

“China acrylic fiber industry has a bright future”

To sum up, China acrylic fiber industry has the following characteristics:



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1、Speed up the industrialization of acrylic fiber industry

At present, there are three major patterns for acrylic fiber industry in the world:

first, downstream integrated with textile industry; second, upstream integrated with

raw material manufacturing industry; third, actively readjusting industrial structure

and centralizing production capacity to cope with market competition.

Through merger, joint, asset recombination and other forms, turn loose acrylic

fiber industry into professional and integrated groups; additionally, expanding

production scale is the only way for the survival and development of acrylic fiber

industry. Only to form industry groups can the industry win the survival and

development space in broad international market in the future.

Opinions on China Acrylic Fiber Industry


2. Adjusting product structure, increasing R&D investment

At present, proportion of differential acrylic fiber is normally at above 40%-50%

in developed countries, and the products are changing from a single function to multi-

functions, high-performance and high-simulation.

Acrylic fiber industry in China must vigorously develop high-tech, multi-

functional and value-added products. In addition, it is necessary to actively develop

top-grade products. Currently popular chemical fiber fabrics at abroad mainly use

differentiated fibers like multi-functional fiber, multi-component fiber, blended fiber

and fine denier or ultra fine denier fiber, with functions including anti-static, high-

absorbent, anti-pilling, flame-retardant, anti-bacterial, far-infrared health care, UV

shielding, fragrance, anti-fouling and breathable.



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3. Advance post-processing enterprises, accelerate product structure adjustment

Most of acrylic fiber products in China move to private and state-owned textile

post-processing enterprises. These enterprises’ products are mainly low-grade, so they

have no high demand for high-performance and value-added differentiated fibers;

additionally, poor equipments or lack of R&D capability affect structure adjustment

and technology improvement of AF industry and textile products, and also affect

product competitiveness in the market. Therefore, it is suggested that the state should

increase the investment on debottlenecking of post-processing enterprises and upgrade

their technology and equipment to form a sound co-development of chemical fiber and

textile industries.



4. Develop eco-friendly technology, accelerate sustainable development

As solvent used in acrylic fiber production will cause serious contamination and

corrosion, producers attach importance on wastewater treatment, waste materials

recovery and continuously reducing content of residual toxic solvents on fiber. The gel

dyeing and dope-dyeing are two good processes to eliminate environmental pollution

caused by acrylic fiber dyeing in post-processing, so they should be vigorously

promoted.



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Development of New AF Products

257

353374

423458 459 465

337

281

146179.96

0

200

400

600

800

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Import Vol.

1、Annual imports of 200kt, new products have potential market.



2. Requirements from downstream

China's textile industry is labor-intensive one, relatively weak in R&D. Self-owned

brands only account for about 10%. In 2008, affected by the world financial crisis, many

small- and medium-sized textile players were closed, even large-scale companies were also

struggling. However, financial crisis had limited impact on the enterprises with value-

added and technology-intensive products.

During the Period of "The Twelfth Five Plan", with the state’s more efforts to

restructure the textile industry, future market will see fiercer competition, so if enterprises

are unable to produce high-tech and value-added products, they will be caught in a very

passive situation. In the long run, the textile enterprises will pay more attention to the

development of value-added product. In addition, the industrial upgrading of textile

enterprises will increase demand for new raw materials.


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3. Raw material price dominates product price

Acrylic fiber staple Y/T ACN (First-grade Y/T)


Two or more components in fiber cross-section; three-dimensional crimpedMulti-component10

High friction, high tearing strength High tenacity & modulus 9

Anti-static: resistivity ＜108Ω·cm；conductive: resistivity ＜102Ω·cm。Anti-static8

LOI commonly 26.5 ％～ 29 ％，automatically extinguishable after ignited. Flame retardant7

Pilling Index＞0.5，fluffy and soft feeling.Anti-pilling12

Dyeable with acid dyestuff, one-bath dying with wool fabricAcid-dyeable11

Light stability, ultraviolet light stability up to 5 000 h, anti-chlorine and anti-mildew. Weather resistant13

14

6

5

4

3

2

1

Triangle, multi-lobal, dumbbell, hollow…, different cross sections provide fibers with luster, hardness,anti-abrasion etc.Profiled cross section

High tenacity and rigidity, light weight, good fatigue resistance, electrical conductivity and chemical stability, low thermal expansion.

Precursor for carbon fiber

Water absorption and water retention similar with natural fiber; comfortable to body, easy to be dyed. Water absorbent

Containing quaternary ammonium salt, organo-silicon compound, Cu2+ and Ag+ ect.; bacteria & odor resistance.Anti-bacteria

Fine denier：0.4 ～ 1.2 D，Ultra fine denier：＜ 0.4 DFine denier

The yarn and fabric blended with regular yarn are lofty, soft and warm-keeping after heat treating.High-shrinkage

Dope-dyed or gel-dyed, high color fastness, easy to change color, less pollution, low cost. Colored

CharacteristicsName

4. Difference from oversea new products



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Summary：

1. New acrylic fiber products have certain potential market .

2. Downstream textile industry requires more new acrylic fiber products.

3. High-price raw materials force producers to produce value-added products.

4. China acrylic fiber producers have certain gap with oversea enterprises.


“The production of value-added products will be one of effective ways for

producers to get rid of difficulties”


New AF Products at Shanghai Petrochem


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Documents

Analysis of Acrylic Fiber Industry & Development of …7th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum 1 中国化学纤维工业协会腈纶专业委员会 Analysis of