Anatonia L.dimou - The Crisis in Syria Diplomacy , Regional Challenges and Options

8/17/2019 Anatonia L.dimou - The Crisis in Syria Diplomacy , Regional Challenges and Options

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First Publshed in

By Istitte for Security and Defense Analysis Th. Sofouli tr.- Neo PsychicoAthes, Greece

© Antoia Dmou

ll rights reserved No part of his monograph may be reprinedor reproduced or utiized in any form or by any electronic mechaicalor other meas, now known or hereaer invented, includigphotocopyng and recordi or in any ifoımation storage orretrieal system, without permssion in writing from thepubisher.

fA Caalogue Record of hs monograph is available om the National Library ofGreece

IBN (Prnt Edition)IBN Master ebook)

Cer Deiaie wrk; haphi Prjein Syra der heCreae Cms Ariun-Share Ake 3. n-ped liense

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KWMTS

Tis mngrap wuld nt ave een realzed witut te supprt f istittis

and peple w made te present mptin a magient experiene Fst

and fremst, I wuld like t express my gatitude t Dr. Musa Steiw� Detr

f te Center fr Strate Sties at te University f Jrdan w need te

mngrap's teme and ered invaluale guidane. I wuld als

wleeartedly like t express my mst sinere thlness t te bard f te

Istitte fr Seurity and Defese nalysis ased n Ates fr emraig

puliatin

I igly indeted t tse w ffered tme and made a series f nduted

nterviews pssible sarig wit me teir deep knwledge and nsigs fr te

riss in Syria and eynd Speally I wuld like t gratelly aknwledge te

nstrute disussins I ad wit tw frmer rme Mnsters and tw frmer

Fren Miisters f te Hasemite Kigdm f Jrdan w ws t mantain

te annymity. I make my takl and respetl rein f ea ne f

ter Exellenies entusiasti sarig f ists and expertse emanatng m

te vast experiene in puli fe ver te yeas.

My mst sinere taks als g t Dr. Adnan Au Ode lial Advisr t te

ate Kng Hussein frmer Senatr and frmer Cief f te Ryal Curt n Jrdan,

and urrenly, memer f te Bard f te Internatinal Criss Grup w sared

nsigs knwledge and years f experiene in puli e; admiedly, e was

truly atalyti n erig erus tips tat ulmnated in te mpletin f tis

mnap.

Additinally, I elden t Dr. Orai Rantawi, Diretr f te alQuds Center

fr Strategi Sdies fr is dstigused ntriutin wit teretial

measurements and a series f stimulatng disussis tat elped put my

tugs dwn in a ntex. Cnurrently, wuld like t express my atelness

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to Dr. Ruhel Gharaibe, leadig poitician of he Jordaan Musim Brotherhood

who made the writng of hs monograph a sately research helpng me

understand the Islamic movement's poitical princples n Jordan and the region

My most snere thaks also go to Mr Ausama Monajed advisor to he Secreary

General of the Syrian Naional Council and Executive Director of the London-

ased Straegic Research and Communication Centre who very promply

contributed o the beter polical understandig of the coaliion of Syrian

oppositon groups based abroad. Concurrently would lke to record a special

noe of thaks to a leadig polician of the Jord Baath party who wshes o

maintan is anonymity and who not only shared opions but most impoıantly

consented to formaon beng pubished in monograph

My graeness is also exended to r John omkos Drector of the Research

Istite for European and merican Studies based n Athes for revewng the

ornal manuscript and for writig the monograph's prologe For comments on

pars of he original manuscript I would e to hak Dr Majed Qatarneh of the

Center for Straegic Studies ast bu not least I ake ense pleasure n

thankng assistan researcher Ruba Mohaıed Tweissi for her assistance n

organzig my eld work wile in Jordan and the authoriy of the Center for

Stratec Studies tha provided the faciities to conduct the present monograph

Undoubedly hs monoaph would no hae been completed without the

contribution of the abovementioned individuals who allowed me to present some

of ther views on a contemporary issue that could potentially change the

traditional currens of the wider Middle East.

tonia Dimou

Augst Athes

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One of he otoes that the reader an oserve o Ms Dio's n-depth

researh onoaph is that any in the San opposion onr no hat

Bashar Al-Assad's ree is stronger than they had ianed Moreover e

West nees to take ore seriosly the Rus sian ones on hat happens if

and aer Bashar Al-Assad fails.

Single events are not preitale, t eir onseqenes oen are

Dr Jo M Nikos

Dretor

Resear Institte for European and

Aerian Sties IEAS)

Athens, Greee


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TRT

The massive wave of protests throot the Mide East n spring 2011 set

o the wind of political and econoic reforms, nd has engulfed most of the

states of orh ca and the Mide East with spreaing effects nto Syria.

Sya has been motivated by the momentos events in Tunisia and Egypt

which nspred protests on its soil demaning economic and poical reforms

and lsating the potentia of genune democracy, or more acurately

demoratizaon om hin.

However, e Syrian remes vioent response on protestrs prompted themto reject the Syrian govement s ial enact of reforms most pronently

the ling of the state of emergency in eet for nerly y years he

inodcon of a new mea law, and the anting of cizensp to stateless

Kurds. Most mportantly state vioence prompted protests to evolve nto

isurgeny Speically, in tle case of Syria as iolence esalated insurgent

tactics eventally replaced protest taccs ng into an asynme warfare

aganst e S state. e sitaon stands nowadays, e death to isstaggering d e deson is reang catasopc proporions n the

Arab coun

Therefore e development of a oaon of the able" for Sa to nclde the

US the EU Rssia d certain Arab ountries to develop a omprehensive

sate and a set of aons to end the riss in Sa is more relevant th

ever before. The sate could inclde coorated iplma efforts to

implement a reconciliaon process, d insure a smooth polial ansition so

tlat proacted onict is ended.

In tlis potial tiing contex the ent monoaph focses on he rst

ten mons of the risis in Sya March 2011 tll December 2011. Beng

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written in e region as te Syrian risis sparked, ared and spread, ths

onoap akes no pretence about proviig answers to coıplex issues

adressed tus aiing to increase understanding trog a series of

conducted interviews wi ocials inteaonal relatios expers om e

reon Baatist and Islaic gres as well as Syrian oppositioists.

s evidenced dng te conduct of researc e debate on Syria reects te

deepeng ivisios between two caps; te st cap supports opposition to

te Syrian regie d te second wises for te aintence of te current

q in fear of ire reona repercussions. Tis kind of debate is

reected in e evolution of e US policy -- Syria of te last ree

decades Te Reag Aistration dened erican policy towards Sa

troug e ps of Cold War realis and even toug e Ara b cony was

inuded in te ist of state-sponsrs of teosm since 1979 it was considered

geopolitically imporant and engagement between te two cones

orised.1 In te post-Cold War aework, e George H Bs

sation considered Sya a k ey pillar for e cemenng of te reona

balance of power d sougt for e engagement of Damascus in te US-led

aliance against Ira in te Glf War of 1991991. Later on, te Cinton

isation considered Sa as major component of any Middle East

peace negoatios and a series of presidenal sumits took place wit e

last one in Geneva in Marc between ten ecan President Bil

Clinton and te ate Sy President Hafez al-Assad.2 For its part te George

W Bus saon ialy eployed neocoservave tools tat

suppored approac to Syria troug isolaon but geopoical reaities led to

te prevalence of raional pracce; Sya's cooperaon in te

Hl Flether Stte Sn: Si" Cunil n Fre Reltn Fer 28;Als effre Field, Adesies nd Sec : &linng US Feign Pli dRgue Stes P diertn ierit f Suthe Cf 2. ne Perlez In Gene, Clintn Bet Tht A d Wuld Ben d n L" e New YkTies h 28, 2

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the Syrin leadership ade sure that it et with eic Presidents o

Nixon to Clinton. Prllely, wle Israel ocupies the Gol Heights for the

last fory yers no atack against the State of Israel has taken place o

Sy tertory

Undoubtely the ajor weesses of the Syn regie have been the

systeic corrupon that created powerl etes nd the slow pace of politicl

refos that were oly inor nd coseti. These weaknesses have presented

the keystone of the poplr protests with dends for deorazaon The

prsue by the Syrin ree of a dual strate responding volently aginst

protests on the one hnd and nting ediation roles on the other hnd is

considered as effor to resolve conicting interests while concently

exploing fers nd hopes.

This onoaph continues with n acot of the ab League the EU nd

the US snctions agnst Sya raising uesons on their ltiate efcieny.

Econoc sctions as a publi policy tool is lyzed sessng the

litaons as accorng to lessons leat in conteporary polics, the

eater nuber of ones needed to ipleent the deil easures the

less likely snons will be eeve In tlis espet it is exained how

vigorously Iraq, Syrias lrgest ab ang prner wch did not vote n

support of the ab League sancons, would ipleent the easres.

Silarly Lebnon with ts coplex econoic es wi Syria reglrly

desbed as one lrge pool" in wlich labor cooes nd oney ows

nipeded ves rise to worries on the aıicatios at sancos ay have

on its own eonoy nd on its ablity to ultiately enfore the set of pve

4 Huer, effre Schot imerl liot nd Brr Oe, EcnicSnins Recndered 3d etion) Petero Intitute fo nterntonl Eonoic27 . 89

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measres. A detiled acont is lso made to Irn wih represents Sa's

songest eonoi ifeine rnging om ener to osuction preing

that the treat wich snons pose on the Syrin economy ill exa

preipitate the power balning satees of Irn nd Syria.

In its course, the monoaph looks into Turkey d its cenl role towrds

Sya ou e employment of its ideologil foreign poliy elements� neo

ottomaism nd the zero problemsjconits. Since Trkey denes its forei

policy n maemal terms e results of at poiy re mesured n e

same terms, reacing the emprcl relizaon that ara has not been able

to successlly apply the "zero problemsjconicts policy not oly to

neibong countries, but most imporntly to its own Southeast with the

promoon of the Nationl Uy proect. It is no seret tl1at Turkey envisioned

to patron e Arab spng rou he exploitation of neo-otomism n

ideology that soiies its spirations to re-engage esged neighbors d to

serve as meiator in conts in the Midle East nd elsewhere. In prsit of

its staning as a leaing uslim country that deterines the reonal

currents Trkey deided to uiquely posion itself in the ase of Syria.

Akra s regionl moives of e folding policy vs-a-vis Sya are identied

as intentions to outweigh Irnian regionl nuence nd as coitment to

consolidate reon doıinance Concrrently, a detiled accont is provided

regrds to Trkeys eors to inteaonize e sis in Sya by

hostng a series of opposion meengs nd being insentl in tl1e

formaon of the S ation Conil wle a likage is made wih regars

to Trkeys domesc agenda nd its relevnce to Sya Evidently Trkey is

made vlnerable by nstabiity, therefore, its foreign policy sategies can not

remn static nd are mostly riven by he need to provide nuned resposes

to undergoing developments in he reon.

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In th prcss h naph fcuss n th Hashi ngd f Jrdn

whs psin as a bidg btwn th Ln d h Prsin Gulf has

pridd it a iqu gplicl staning n th Midl East in a way tha

nwadays Aan is td wi a siicn iplmatic nd hitrin

rl with rgrds situan in Syria In fac, Sya rprsns a nd f

lius ts fr Jrdan wich thru th risis has adpd th plicy f

ac nutrlity that is idd in tw parts. Th rst prt is a prac ffrt

t prnt th utbr f wr in th rn with xrcis f iplmatic

iscs t cnt a nid Arab psitin in h Arab Lagu cntx nd

bynd. Th scnd prt is h atpt f J rdn t itslf int a saf

han fr rs nd a scn fr plitcl stlnt, ths iniizing frs

that sis ay ndin th ngd's plicl sabliy nd xa

wn its lrady batd cny. A prsntan f th intrlid

Jrd-Sa cnic rlans is prdd wih n y n h fasibility f

tl1 Arab Lagu sncns aginst Sya nd prssily nga ipact

f sncns n th Kingdm' s cny rl

Out f th trbulnt nts in Syria J rdn t practicl stps t lash a

pliticl rfrm prcss t sngn pilrs f dcracy nd dn public

prticpatin in dcisin ing It has bc cstl clr a tl1 ar

iffrnan f tl1 Jrdi nts m hs n Syria nd th rs in th

Arab wrld is tl1at prtsrs r asing fr rf f th cnt systm no

its ablin. Jrdn has n iprn rcrd n frm nias which wr

dlayd du ar rginl nts. Ntably in pr-Ira wr prid, th

ngd iitiad h Jordn Firs-A rd Awln capign which

attpd t clat a cprhnsi isin f cnc d plicl

rfrs. Th na pridd fratin f a nanl cmit t d

i dint cnic nd picl issus nd dbatd isnc tl1s

nly tl1 pssiblity f sablisng a cnsiunl cr; th inducn

f a prliantry quta fr wmn th nactnt f nti-cpn

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mesres� te ring of new politicl pres lw wt te aim of enng te

stte of gmenton mong political pares; and te seting of rules to

cover reltons between civil society professional orgatios nd te stte.

Eualy sigcant reform iititive ws te 2005 Jordai Nona Agend

blueprnt for polical economic and socia reforms t envisioned

pprocing te reform process n olisc rter t piecemeal wy.

Te comtee of te onal Agend consisted of representtives om

politicl pres incung te Muslim Broterood te parliment civl

society women cvists e me e govement nd e pvte sectors

and reced recommendtios in ee nterdependent ares nmely te

econoc d social policies bsic rigts and eedoms d stte

isuctre. In e eld of potcal reforms te Nona Agend proposed

new lws to open up elecons d prevent scrintion gainst women In

Jly 2006 te goveent of ten Prime Miister Mruf Bkit ssembled

forum of 700 parcipants over two-dy period to dress te policl

econoc and socil cllenges fcig te Kingdom Cpitaling on te

nngs of e onal Agend paricipants produced e We Are A

Jodn Kun Urdun document. Te document ws clear tempt t

politicl reform d selected list of een poies. Te mjor tree were

loyaly d nonalism sovereignty of e stte d e protecon of nona

interests and nonal security Te Bakit govement ndoubtedly sowed

siicant leslve iitiive Speciclly in November 2006 it pssed n

anti-corrupon lw tt estblised anti-corrupon comitee wi brod

powers Te lw notbly included in its detion of corruption ctions

relted to neposm wst

Antoia Diou Sing of Refors for the Hasheite igdo o Jordan"Wrlress (Ns nd VisArund e Wrd), June

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Coming to today's situaon, the monoaph desbes Jordns speedy nd

praccl steps to eash a deep politica reform proess which ims to reect

the Kingdoms vision of comprehensive reform modezation nd

development in a way that be ranslated into relities on e ound nd

provide a blueprint for a beter tre, not oly for the Jord people but

for the peope of the en tire region.

Last but not least the monoaph focses on what happens nex and the

llenges l1ead by inqring for isnct scenrios that od have exensive

raons for reon competitors nd llies The rst scenrio

concenates on the possible reaon of Syria nd its lies on wr threats e

second on the export of e Sn risis n Lebnon, the tird scenrio on

reme hnge n Sa d the major henges that ill srface not oy in

the Arab coun but in the whole reon wle the fourth senrio dels i

reme srvival n Sya It has beome an incresngly ommon

nderstng at whether e current reme remis or hnges e

Midle East wll be affected multiply wi focus on Irn s reonl stning

the power perception of major weste powers, the postre of Israel in the

contex of a urblent rea, nd stablity in neighbong onies pclry

Jordn, Lebnon nd Iraq

Undoubtedly the debate on Sa reets not oly ivisons but most

imporantly e relizaon at policl clocks cot be ed bak� too

much policl moblization has occued for the sus qu ne to come to

tl1e fore intact

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N SESSMENT F HE ION N Y

Te we of protests sweeping troug e r world reced Syri.

Snowbllng demonstrtions in mor cies ike Dmscus, Dar Bani dHoms calling for eter eedoms, improement in iing stdrds and

respect for an rigts, ggered isproporonte recon om te

Sy secuty pprtus gainst protestors

Te Syrian regimes iitil ssessment tt protests will not come t its

doorstep were dased and terefore opted to project an imge of seg and

gt conol s means to old on to power. Te Syrian remes early

ssreness ws bsed on two mor policy pllars expected to deter protests

in te cony. Te rst ws te precedent of Hm, and te second ws

forei policy clo se to te ssroots of te ntion

Specically, Hm te cons for largest city is well no for its

upsng gainst te S B Stte tt imaxed n 982 wit e lng

of 7 Btist ocials d csed te regimes strong respos e wit de

tol rnng etween , and 25 ccoring to esty Inteonal.Te Syn remes iolent crckdown in te city is o s e cse of

Hm. In fct, te cse of Hm represents precedence tt e S

reme perceied it d seared into te collectie consciosness of te Syri

public erefore preentig domesc protests

Additionlly te Syn regime s sessed t its foreign policy would be mo re

tan enoug to ert protests. Mor components of Syrian forei policy

inude () e Dmscs consce role in e post-Sddm Ir n te

secrity d aitarian elds wi te bsorbce of more tan .3 million

Iri regees not esy tsk for cotry of 22 million; (b) te inuenia

staning of Syri in any rb-Isreli pece process t emantes om its

siicant leerge wi orgaiztions like Hms; c) e stec

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partnersip of Syria with Irn, wich produced the orgization of Hezbollh,

fonded trough a ıutul aeeent to ght Israel; (d) the re-eergence of

Sy inuence in Lebnon trough its ared relaonsp with Hezbollh

Hezbol is a coıplex, l-layered phenoenon. It is not the Slte fo

of Qaeda. On one leel it is the ifestaon of assroots epoweent

in Lebnon wich explis widespread Siite support for e orgnization

Hez bol cn ls o be iewed as a ilitry nd ideoloc rı of Ir and the

Iri reoluon in Lebnon. For this reason, Hezbollh is a problem for e

SArab coes becase it is a Shiite power in e hert of the Arab

world.

Frtherore Syrias forei policy includes (e the conduct of inirect

negotiations with Israe, een dring e Jly 206 Lebnon wr. It is e

at the conontationl relaonsip with Israel was not n obstacle for

peoic seret Israeli-Sn contacts. A case in point was e seret track of

cent Israeli Piıe Miister Benaıin N etnyhu nd the Iate Syrn

President Hafez l-Assad with the ıeiation of Americn illionire Ron

Lauder. As disclosed, Lauder presented Syria a docuent tled auder in the

nme of the Pe Miister of Israel on Septeber 998 that contined a proposal to iscuss borders that would be based on the Jne 4 967 lines.

And lastly, Syria eerged om isolaon due to Trkey's pocy of zero

probleısjconicts wth neighbors with regrds not only to the Syrin-Israeli

peace process nd the resolution of intra-Arab affirs, but lso to the

deelopment of extensie econoıic d politicl es between the two

coes.

That sid the bitter irony nd the ltiate pradox for e Syrin reıe is

tl1at the prsued forei policy while appreciated by e pubc was not

enogh to deter protests om eoling. Today it has becoe eident that,

6 Akiva lar Who Really Stopped Ron Laude?" Hre se Dy,Janary


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policall onger generations need oxgen, nd ths cosmec chnges nd

nor reforms seem no lnger scient Sria is in ire need of major

polical soci nd econoc sfoaon

Therefore the Srin presidents rst major speech two weeks since the

protess erupted at the parliament on Mar fel short of

expectatios as it became obvious that it is ighl likel to have sweeping

chnges instuted Later on, in a televised adress on Aprl ı6, the

Srin presiden nounced that the emergenc law in force in Sria for

nerl 5 ers wold be aboished nd called for a nationl ialogue wile

is major third speech on June appered tepid lacking an

siicnt iitiative iming that nsabiit caused b riminls nd salas

was to blame for the dela in implementing reforms. Rther than proising

concrete refos the San president emphasized that secrit had to come

rst and ed to present is authorit as a neul meiator between the

poplation nd the sect forces.

It is not seret that the ocial position of Srin President Bashar l-Assad

supports that the Srin societ like the majorit of societies in the reon, re

experiencng a s in policl igent to "coservasm The Sri

presidenal perception is best smrized b a foer Jo rdn prim e

nister who has met Assad on nerous oci occasions in the pst:

en I sked Ass d wh he do es not poceed on moe pid p e with

poiti eforms he repied tht the pce ofeforms is not tht sow but the

visin hs to be mture beuse it does notfit the soiet then thee wi be

division"7 On ts ound, e process of polic reforms accoring o

Assads percepon was ifclt as evidenced b the cses of coes like

Lebnon d Algeria Specicall accoring to the presidents perception

coes ike Lebnon nd Algeria hat had strived for rapid reforms had set

teriew onuted in Aman n Noeme

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the stage only for conict nd social urest In the case of Algea during the

198s Islaist oups sought to eploit the policl opening of the

goveent to gn power, nd tis underned the intel stablity nd

sparked conict lasng decades In Lebanon, the process of polic refors

nd the elecons of May 29 2005, had been the cause of the subsequent

setarin violence. pon tis perepon the Syrian president repeately

supported that he coun needs e to iprove education nd build

istitutions prior to deoratizing its political syste.

Upon this lo oly inor refors, oseti hges and soe kind of

opening to he Scouity were underken by the Syrian regie in the

lst decade. In 2005, President Assad, wihout any politcl iscussion,decided to ove towrds what was viewed as eonoıi liberlizaon.

Idenclly, the Sy goveent has proceeded to a set of slow nnil

refos as prt of its efforts to sfor the econoy ough the bg

setor Refors included the istuon of a sige echge rate for the

Sy pound the increase of private bk capitlizaon, the inoducon of

the Syrin pound Treasury bill as a rst apital investent insuent, nd

the ncrease of e forei ownersip leve to 6 percen Noteworhy, theeasing of resons on bnk acounts d forei ade enabled e private

bg s ector to gradully epand The rst Gulf bk in Sya naed Bnk

ofSri nd the Gu as well as wo Islic bnks the Sin Interntion

Ismi Bnk and the Chm Bnk were licensed in 2006 nd have epnded

brnhes and servies. Adionlly, in 2008, the Syrin goveent took he

decision to ut e subsiies by 50 percent a poliy prised by reforers

Nevereless, the cosequent 50 perent inrease in the price of diesel was reected across the specu of goods nd servies propng ccs to rgue

that decresed conser purchsng power was evidence hat econoic

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reforms hr Syrias majority poor. Evidently, suh steps shold have been

lnked to policl reforms but litle of that happened

Aleged systeic orrpon in tl1e reme led to econoic uscaon for

tl1e birh of powerl elites in the immediate entorage of the Syrin reme.

Concurenly e Syrin reme developed a push-pll dynac dng e

last deade th enorang moderate Islmists on the one hand wle

repressing what it perceived to be a treateing Islaıist noy on tl1e

other The reme took he strategic decision to play wih the issue of Islam as

it assessed hat it was nder threat and was lling to tke serious risks to

prevent former Vie President Abdl Hlim addam nd Muslim

Broerhood leader Sadredine Baynouıi om developing ny acon in tl1e Scommuiy.

Regime outreach to the Islaıic conity in erly 2006 ncluded a

presidenal approva of a sha law faculty at leppo University the

liesig of tree Islac bks and lowng for the rst time a proıinent

Islaıi gure to lectre at the Higher Mlitary cademy in Damascs

Speciclly the reme allwed moderate Islaic gre d Member of

Priament Mohammed Habash to address he ocers at he Hier Militay

cademy in Damascus, wi the atendnce of the ıiister of defense d tl1e

Grnd M as well as other reios gures. In s speeh Habash lled for

a new Polic Pr es Law that would pet the forman of Islaıi pares.

On a prllel ack he Sy reme effors pointed toward stepped-up

measres to couı1ter rising Islaist inuence. Identically, tl1e Miisy of

Islaıi dowments (waa issued a list of ten resctions on activities at

mosques liitng the hors of operaon to mes of prayer prevenng ny

8 Aoding to n ntern re sue o sket o goods umultive infltonrte o 24.55 peent ws releted sine June 27. e utilities seto ws hdest twit n 87 erent jum in the vege o st of eletit wter fuel nd telehoe rt es.Food tht ounted for 45 erent of the Si udget inesed i rie l mos23 eren

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nauthorizd skrs or activits including th llon of donatons nd

rqng h lowring of th volm of loudskrs usd in th clls to

rayr

In th contx of th rising Islaıic rlious snmnt in Syra nd rgim

attmts to control it whil rrssing violnt ndamntlism th Syrian

rsidnt acctd a tition in July 2006 sid by 200 roıinnt S

rlious grs who rotstd ducaon rform lns on th gronds that

thy would act Islamic schools. Sciclly, th roosd rforms by th

ınss of Education nd Islaic Endowmnts wqaa that mt th

song oosion of th Si rios stablishmnt and consunty w r

shlvd by tl1 Syan govnt focusd on th xnsion of tl1 duraon of rimry school by two yrs to includ th svnth nd th ighth grads, nd

tl1 rohibion on rligious schools om rstring sudnts in th svnth

ad to sciliz in Islaıic ducaon.

On th chatr of tlic inots rgim oings wr iiatd ovr th

last yrs towrd its tıic ıinoris, most roinntly th Krdish

oulation wlich amonts to aromatly 9 ılion in Syria ths

rrsnng 7 rcnt of th cons totl olation. s known, dring th

6s, lmost 350 thousnd Kurds hav bn divd of thir cizn rights

sinc th rdoinnt Baatl1 rabist idolo srvd as ky lk wlich

dstnguishd Krds om rabs nd dnd hm as outsidrs. Th last

dcad, th Syrian rgim ritd Krds room -though liitd- for olical

mnuvr nd cultrl xrssion. From 2007 nd on th annul Krdsh

clbration for th Nw Yar "No in major Syrian citis lk Qamishli

nd Damascus troughout th discts of Rknddin nd Krat l-ssad hav

bn rıittd nd thus rvrsd th cltr of surssion that

r-xstd sinc 2004 Qashli ots that l 2 kld hndrds

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wnded nd thsnds rrested. Cncrrently, mjr Krish liicl

rties re icensed t erte in Syri ike the Kurish Prgressive

Demcrc Pry, the Krish Yii Prty, the Kurish Futre Mvement the

Kurdish Ai Prty nd he Demcrtic nin Prty

Cmng t e mst recent situtin e vilent crckdwn n ci sciety

nd the sin hs reed such rrins in Syri t litic

bservers in e regin d beynd cmre it t the reressin f the 980s

dng tl1e re f e te Hfe l-Assd. As ne rdnin civil rights

cvist cited evously) omprsons wth the fther lwys ponted to

Bshrs ndesveness, k ofeerene nd poor deson-mkng The

ckd hs becme s intense tl1t bservers rge tht the Syrin reme

is rebuiling he "wlls f fer t nce he te President Hfe l-Assd

erected. It is ls believed tht the reme hs embrced cnnttin nd

lllly islted itsef m e EU e S nd he Arb Legue nl

recently lth inte ivisins est, nd re relted t hw gessively

tl1e gvement shuld ursue its crckdwn n rtestrs s well s its

deings the mjr renl nd ntetinl lyers. e Sn

ivisin witl1 regrs t e deee f regime isln nd escltin is mng tl1e u f the s-clled hrd-liners which includes key-gures in the

secty services wh rgue tht Syri benets m tle licy f escltin

nd cnntn witl1 the West nd i ts Ar b fellws nd tl1t y cst in

terms f isln is negligible ven the tlret tht the reme fces fr its

very survivl The ther u cls fr mre nunced licy, ne tht seeks

lited nd der cnl cnntn wile exerng licl ressure t

re-engge th tl1e West nd the Arb felws.

Desite ny divisins ver e deee f isltin nd esclin the verll

Sy reme licy ers slid d nimus. As cited by Jrdnn

9 he l-Qmshli prsing Te Beginnig of New r fo Si Kurds"KurdWt, Repor #4 Decemer

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Baatist wh recently headed a Jrdin delegatin t Syra and met with

tl1e Syan president Assd s stong seesteem nd beief tt e i

oveome te isis No tt te Syin egime is teniy unde

ggession tee n be no diet negotitions it te US. "ıı And

cnnued: Te min pis ofAssds stengt e is peope nd is my

Ove te pst mont te Syin pesident eetivey pesents imses te

defende ofte Syin dignit nd nity ginst ny een intefeene

ts ppeing to Syin ntionism nd Ism

Nevertheless the wrds f tis prinent Jrdan Baathist tl1at ny

impasse rinates in Sya's wn plitcl cltre espused by Baa parys

legacy f s ng ilgue in mes f risis may nt be abslutely crrect. Itseems tlat tle Syrin regime has reated qite intelligently in he ıist f the

sis by nt shu ng drs and by mintiing pen nels f

cmmncatin with majr players mst prinent tle US the Arab League

Iraq nd Russa. The eclusive nterview f he Syan president t the C

Nes nd t Brbra W al ters tl shw Te Vie in erly December 20

was tl1e rst f i ts ind t ıericn TV bradcast sine the erupn f the

risis, d the message early sent t l interested pes was that Ass ad is nt lie e ate Lbyan president. On the cntrry he Syrin president

appered s-spen clm lighly eduated nd he nswered every single

quesn witl1 n nd rles set befre e nduct f tl1e interview. One f

tl1e mst reveing prts f the interview is Assads recin that he

majrity f Syrins were neither fr nr against the reme, but in the iddle,

as well as the recgnitn that there is instabity in sme prs f the ny

hwever the verl sitatin is stable. There has ls been a snd f

Interview codcted in A mn oemer 28, 211 Interiew ondued in Ammn, Decemer 3 211. Interiew conted with pominent Jordni Bthist in Amn Deemer 3211 Intevew wit former odin Minister of ore Afs onducted AmmnDecemer 8 211 Commets of Br Wlters on he tk sow tC, Decemer 6 211


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presidenal optimism wih regrds to the rab League snons perceived as

having the silver ining of smlaig domes producvy d

resorceness Clerly e presidenl message directed to Wasingon was

that the rmed forces re a state instituon nd not the personl propery of

nyone, and that Syria could weather he storms at doubtely lie lead

Conurrenly Sa awarded Iraq a role of meiation to broker a deal with the

Arab League. The Iraqi mediation effors headed by e ons national

serity adviser were llegely spported by he US as evidened by the

condcted tlks of tle Iraqi pme miiser in s ate 20 p o

Wsingon, nd gined he taci approvl of Iran Sa's saec y. The

Iraqi mediation effors seemed o fous on openg hmels ofconication between e Sy regime d tle outside Sn opposition

wle there was explici intention of Iraq o subıit an iitiave in the Arab

League cntex o end he sis.6 The itiave reporely imed at opeing a

iloge etween the opposition d the Sn govement to reah a

mtlly beneci aeemen.

Nonetleless one ıaor fator tha meiaors seem to tke in o acot is that

tle Syan opposition is predominantly divided amog two maor umbrella

orgzaons d lacks a uited leadersp that cold formuate a ont pl

of aon vis-vis he Sy regime nd the internaonl commuity. The

rst is tle ationl Coorination Comtee for Demcrati Chnge (NCC

based in Sya, ih sees itself as representing the opposition witn Syria

nd herefore is e letimae leader of the protess and e seond is tle

Sy Naonl Coc (SNC ased oside the country as well as the

Naonal Authority for Suppor of he Syrin Revolution (ASS7 wh im

uir, twn t Lins Assa Itriw", Dcm Ara Lagu Sks Iaqi diation i Syria, e Daly Sa (Lebanee Daily)Dcmr 8, 7ASS had is ormr Syian Prsint Adl Halm Khaddam and its s cludso m 69 oppositnists rsiding outsid Syria. Le ga (Daily) Nov r 6,

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t delier the ie f the Sy "relun and its deands t the

inteatinal cty. The lack f ty between the iaspra-ased d

the des Sy ppsin and eir isaeeent er e way that

pssile ree change shld happen ipedes sng s far suppr y the

West arenthecally the CC adates adual chge and reects

inteatinal litary interenn whereas the SNC and ASS all fr e

errw f the ree and d nt reect the ptin f inteana

interference. In ts ntex, as part f ther ngng backside iplac

els , Iraqi eiatin between Daasus d e Ara Leage n a eae

Itiae that included he allwce f bserers t tr the prten f

ilians and a dialgue f e regie with ain Syrian ppsin ups was

cnsidered aluale twards a sustainable way ut the ent crsis

On a parallel basis Sya is esated that it has pleged fr an nreased

iplatic rle f Russia n the nteatinal arenas It is in this ntex that

Russia wch held the presideny f he Secury Cuncil fr

Deceber 20 ade a pragac step and subtted a new ra U Secty

Cncil reslun t end the rsis in Syra The ra reslun aled fr the

end f ilene by all par es and e cease f ars supplies t the ppsitin,rged the ipleentan f the Arab League eae Iae with speial

ephasis n the deplyent f bserers n Syria and ephatcally red ut

litary interentn. The ra reslun tuched upn e re f he sis

hweer it was liable t aenents cntaiing aspects f the Arab League

Itiatie such as the release f plitical prisners ialge wth ppsin

representaes, the aceleran f plical refrs thin a cncrete

eae, d a fllw-up echais. Russia s e t take he Syran

teriew wit Ausama naed, Adis t the Secretary General f te SyrianNatna uncil, Nemer 8 011 Sme 00 mees f the S met unis n eceme 17, 0 taks thataied t unite the ppsitn, ad cncluded tat We eed t emerge rm thiscness wt a higher Iee! f rganizatin, cearer tagets ad m re mıentum.

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risis t the Secty Cnl level cincided with the acceleran f Arab

League nd este ressures twrds Syria, and it was widely viewed as a

ng int f Rssi dilmacy as t a certain exend it aved e way fr

the inte1atinlizatin f the crisis. Ntewrthy, Russia and Cina veted a

ra reslun snsred by Frce Geny Prugl nd the UK n

Octber 4 20, that cndened he excessive use f frce by the Sn

authrities aginst rtestrs we Brazil India Lebn nd Suh ca

abstined. It seems that Russia is hedng its bets n a gne at matches the

avity f e factul situatin in Syria envisiing t bridge gas nd t brek

the s ilence f the N S ecty Cunci.

The best utcme fr Russia that cld im credit is the restratin fSyas re-rtest sttus quo as rt f a negtiated slutin nng it a

ilmatic victry n the wrd stage d a sidicatin f e referenl

relatinshi hat it maintains with he Syri reme. In fact, Russia hlds a

navl base n Syas Meiterrnen cast where recently isatched wrsis

inuding its ly rcra carer, while Sya has been a mar client fr

Russi rms sles. Eidently Russia has ra a cncrete line e snd

ver Syria reecting e ilit in aginst the Arab c as e cst f intervenn at the heart f he Mide East is esmated t be vey gh,

favng, hwever e iitiain f dilgue between e Syrian gvement

nd the sin d demnding he isrmanent f ll actrs. It is in his

cntex that Russia has hsted a series f sitin meetings in its caita

nd has tned dilmatically with the igher icl echelns f the Syrian

reme serching fr iable sluns.

t the ek f meian effs, Sya aeed t n Arab Leage rtcl as

rt f the Peace Iitiave with amendments n the rin tex negtiated

nd acceted by bth sides wch rded fr he llwce f bservers t

mnitr its imementan, wile n advced bseer team was desiated

t reare tecc rcedres in cnctin wih e Syri

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authorities.0 The observers' ssion lasted for one month nd cold be

exended for nother one wi the consent of the Sn govement nd the

Arab Leage, nd observers were frly ee in eir movements but not

lowed to visit sesitive ilitry sites. The signing of the protocol wich

clled for the end of all violence, the withraw of oops om the streets nd

the release of detainees, mrked the iitiation of Sya-Arab League

cooperaon with the im to nd a political soluon to e S crisis Most

importantly the acceptce of e Arab Leage protocol as product of

negotiations with the Syan gove1ment gave the laer the politic staning

to apper to e Syri public as a power auoty not wlling to succumb

to y treat at jeoprized Syrin sovereity2 nd as decisive to defend

tl1e cos nationl interests Therefore the sigıing of the protocol cold

have provided the basis for Sya to emerge om tl1e risis d move om e

stage of violence to e stage of stability that cold pave the way for the

promoon ofwide politicl reforms nd democracy.

Evidently Syria seems to have so fr prsued a dul sate wich on the one

side has focused on the adopon of "n ron st domesclly wile on e

other side it has moved meoiclly to met the diplomatic ice by nngmeiaon roles to satec llies not oy sensing that ee re prospects for

concng inteests to be resolved but lso exploing fers nd hopes since

listory revels especilly in the Midle East reon, that once a conict sts

it entils the dnger ofbeing nresolved indenitely.2

On cmr Syia agr to t Ara Lagu protocol, with thconsnt to t osrvrs to th Ara count. Accssd at

htpwww. rsposiitytoprot orgndx. php sscisis-in-syia In a prss cofnc, Syia Foign istr uallm xplictly statd that thprotoco psrvs Syran sovrity and alows Syria to stalish scurity, and adddthat sovrty is protctd y th protocols tx and coodination with th Syangovrnmnt, in ation to Aric 8 o th Ara Lagu har. S, Al-oallmSiing of th Protocol is a P Natonal ciso asd on Intsts of Syian Popl,in A Ns Ag (A) Dcmr Intiw wit a form odanan Fori instr, ondud in Amma,Dcmr 8,

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as f May 9, 20 n the Syrian geen ny fcus n bg the

sle suppy sfer r exprt iretly r inirectly, f eqipent hat ight

be used fr tea repressin. A e sae pace he US Treasury

Deprtent renewed its snctins eezng y assets f Sy fials at

re in the United States r herwise f witin S risicn d brring

Aeri indiiduls and cpes deling wi the.

liticl eites in he ren nd beynd hweer hraterized tle

desian f Sn cials as a purely syb gestre with n tngible

ecnc repercussins, nd as a feckless atak n the Assad ier faily

nd regie ircle nt nly a S adıiisan wih itle plical

leerage er Syria but ls a iided Erpen Un Seir Syncials whse assets hae been zen nder US sncns hae nne n the

Uied States nd the EU rs ebarg is engess since there are n EU

weaps sles t Sya Thus i is esated that sancs lne culd nt

deter he Sy ree resrng t ilent es fr as lng it

perceied tha its suril was at stke

The inil syblic apprah f the US and tle EU sctis against Syria

has reected at frei pwers ay hae had a ested inerest in pssibly

intaiing the stts qo n Syria in the nae f relpolik sne here were

fers that ree hnge in Sa wuld lk a l re ike Iraq n 2003 th

Ept in 20. Hweer the se f the death tll t re h 4000

acrding t esates f he UN H ights Cissin prpted he

EU t pe re pressre n the Sy ree iitiang a new rnd f

24 Regati 44 amed t e par a West-ed initative t app mre pessure teSyran ee t en vilence agast prtesters. uncil Regulatin ) N44001, Cncenig Restrive easures View f the Situatn in Syia, a 9,011.25 At the time f tis mngrap's writing, ths was te umbe f the deat tll.Accrg t Amnest Internatinal, te number as escalate ver the cuse mths int te Sia risis reachig re tan 7 thusand vctims htpww.amnestrg

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sanctions with reglaon No 1244/2011 on December t 2011. The new

measres have included a ban on moitoring sipments going to the Arab

couny, suspening isrance for ansacons, d baing Erope

companies om making new investments in Syria's oil sector e EU

sctions target Syrias oil indstry by blacklisng state-owned rms at

oversee ade d exploration, as well as halng sal es d impors of Syrian

ol and byproducts; the state-oed General Peoleum Corporaon (GPC

and Sa Traing Oil (Syol as well as a GPC oint ventre Al Frat

Peoleum Company, fall in the sanctions list. Adionaly the E has

suspended the priing of San crrency in the E, has blocked investment

and development ai d, has ozen aing proams e Arab co, d

has insucted the Eropean Investment Bak to hat ıdig of

iasuctre projects.

Sanctions have also been imposed on twenty istitutions and compaies

conected to the reme inuing the main Syrian mobile phone provider

and the Al-Shams Holing Company, Syrias oly pivately owned polical

newspaperAlWtn the Cham Press television station, the Scienc Stuies

and Research Center (CERS) for proviing suppor to the Syan army toacquire equipment used directly for the seilance and repression of

demonsators, the companies of Business Lab, Industrial Soluons

Mechanical Construcon Factory (MCF, Syroics-San rab Co for

Elecoic Induses and Handasieh-Orgaization for Engineering Industries

as ont compaies that also conbute to the acqision of sensive

equipment According to Uraib Rantawi, irector of the al-Qus Center for

Political Stuies based in ıman the mposton ofEU sntons s skgme The EU should ete le poltl son) odmp to poltl

stblt n S Smpl mposng sntons on S nd demndng the

oust ofthe uent egme wthout speng the poltl ngedents ofthe

See Ofcial Joal ofthe Eopean Union, Volume 54, Decemer

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tnsitinl peid it eg t ill tke ve te d e,

mpites te situtin nd uns te isk finteginl ci

The renewed E pive meare ame er the Arab League in

nprecedented move along with Trkey on November 2 2011 approved

econoc nctio on Sya to prere e regime in Damcu to end e

dometi uppreion The idea belnd the Arab League non wa that

being iolated by it Arab fellow cone i much more pil for n Arab

nationalit on like Sya thn being ntioned by the Eropen Uion

nd the ited State. 28 In fact ha been e rt me that the Arab bl o

h enforced a erie of pive meaure of uch maitude againt a

memb er tat e29

The Arab League anon include (a) a avel bn on eior Syrian ocil

to e Arab coe and the eezing of their aet; (b) utting o

naon with the Centr Bk of Syria (c) the ceae of ade blcking the

le of noneenti commoie into Syria; (d) the hlt of Arab govement

ing for project in Sya nd eezng govement aet; (e) e top of

nncil anation with e Sn govement; ( the ceae of deling

with the Coeral Bk of Sya (g) the demnd om the Arab enl

bk to ceae bk tranfer and ade reit wi e exception of bank

nfer om worker abroad to eir failie in Sya, nd retce of

Arab citizen in Sa; (i) a chedule to top Arab t to d om Syria

nd ) e aigment of wo major agencie to follow up implementaon of

the pive meare namely e Arab Air Ciil Authority nd the Arab

Monetry Fnd

Intrviw codctd in Am ma, omr Th sspnson of Syrias mmrship in t orgaization as prcdd th iıpositioof onomc sactios. of t otris that ak p t Aa Lag sppod th st of sanctiosIraq astaind om th sanions ot, and Lanon disassociatd tslf o th ot.oth ountrs said ty would not nforc th sactons.

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ct the money line that Syrin binee mintin with he Arab world

nd ti meare i lo expeted to favor the gran of capitl om Sya.

In btce e EU, the S nd the rab Leage ction im to

nderıine the fondao of he Syrin regime weken it coherence d

ienate it poplr ppor bae. The intel ctre of power of the

Sy reme re abided by olidrity among the eite nd thoe he lower

rk. Thee relationhip be vilized a a pyraid with e preident

nd hi o e entorage at the top d the exitence of errc top-down

network of panage nd dependence whch pervade ll inton nd

level of oiey. Therefore the trgeng of i rking Sn inividl by

cioning their binee nd eezing their aet abroad, im to create

inte1l iviion nd diconect the mt om the ret of e pyrad

ditionlly, e ceae of forei invetment nd the reon of iqiiy

aet h cold ae a negave blnce of payment, nd therefore

redce the Syn Cenl Bk rreny reerve im to tget the paıid

tre of prilege poible depletion of crrency reere cold lead to

the collape of the nationl crrency. In fer of ti poibility igh rk

inividl may renfore e tendeny to trnfer ther aet abroad, a it

happened drng the trd qrter of 211 where depoit in Syrin bk

decreaed by percen

However, the effectivene of nction i qetioned by policl oberver

the reon nd beynd de to the lak of niity in the Arab Leage ontex

th regrd to ncon agint Sya Alo, one that neighbor Sya

namely Lebnon Iraq nd Irn re widely perceived a the potentil lrge

gate for the nction brek.

Lebnon adpt a tnce of netrlity regring the event in Sya and of

non-terference in Syria intel affir, nd reined om voting the

eonoc nction agint Syia in the Arab Leage, on the gron that

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Syrias secty nd stabity are tied to Lebnons. Since its formaon on

June 2011 Miatis govement donated by the pro-Syrin March 8

Forces, ed to clvate the image of a moderate nd neul Lebese

goveent, presably movated by Lebanons dependence on Western

id both econoıic nd ılitary nd by the fact that it served in September

2011 as the rotang president of the Secty ounc. Tis tac has also

been employed vis--v other maor issues in Lebanese polics such as e

Specil Tribnl that investigated the assassination of former Lebnese

Prime Miister Al-H for ich 2 illion dollrs has been wred

by the Lebnese govement so at the possibility of teationl sancons

on the contry is avoided.°

Lebnon' s posion is itated by the geoapc proity as wel as its ose

nd complex es with Sa that desbe the aionl econoıic

relationship between both as one lrge pool" wich labor commoies

nd money ows impeded. The linked natre of the two econoes raises

Lebnese worries on the ramicatios that scons may have on he

conys economy as the relaonsip between the two cones is not

lite to ofcial ade relations at were esmated at rond $1. bllion in2010 but they also include the movement of labor Syrian expatriate workers

who e double the Sy wage and get pi in hard cuency provide Syria

i an estimated $1-2 bllion ally in reittnces a cric! sorce of

reven ue for Syria s 22 billion dollr economy.

Mutuy, Lebnese present a hi-skiled labor force that aiony mkes

up for the upper management in e telecommication nd other sectors in

Ün a para track, som t US ongrss ha rcommn cutg off militaai to th ans Amd Forcs, t what sms to av prvaild is that Lanonshould not unsd fo a ocratic chang in gomnt t is smat that whilzollah is making inoas in t Lans scuty srvics, th Arıd Forcs ar st!oya! to th stat, not t rsistanc, atou thy o cooprat closly whn cssawit th Iranian-ackd orgaizaton.

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the conry s public nsport network Irn cold lso help Syri wether the

snctions by buying its crude oil preiosly desined for the Europen

coes or by llowing Dmscus to py for impors in Syrin pounds

It is no seret tht mutully benecil econoıic relonsip beween Syri

nd Irn hs resulted om eir policl llince - ough Tehrn sl

remns relely inor ding prer - goeed by n eemen dting

bck o Mrch 1996 t ws red s Decree 241 in 1997, nd by

preferenl trde greement" lowering tffs on some goods. Pte Ir

inestment inoles inerl oil renery kno s the Dmscs

Perocheıicl Renery locted in Dumeir3, wle Ir' s ghes prole

inestments in Syri re two utomobile ssembly plns ht opened in 2007nd re eport oented The rst is the Syrin Irin Automoble

Mnufcturing Compny (SIAMCO) pln, joint entre mong Irin

oro, he Sy Generl Orgıizon for Enneering Induses d e

prie Syrin l-Sult Group The second cr ssembly plt is joint

projec of the Irn Sip nd the pte Syri-Irin Veie compy

(SIECO Inetionl. The epsion of the Hm cement plnt lso

presents mor Iriı inestment project t hs incresed its producon lne om 11 ilion o 14 mllion tons, wle e Irnin Azrb compny

renoted s prime conctor the nys power pln Eqully import

hs been the concng of e Irni compıy Thsee Silh tht hs

coitted to bilt ten 100.000 mec ton in silos cross Syri tht

proide storge cpcity of more thı e ilion metric tons for Syn in

projec of itl importnce s whe resee is iewed s esseni for he

couny' s poiticl independence.

The et t the EU, the US nd he Arb Legue snctions pose on he

Sy economy re epected to e precipite the power blıcing

The Leanon Weekly onitor," Bnk Audi, Septemer 1-18, 01.

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satees of Irn nd Syria In mes of polic and economic hrdsips, Irn

adionlly has sided by Syria nd his policy is epeced to happen again

nder the current circumstnces as story seems to repeat itself. Identiclly,

in e erly 980s the Syrin regime perceived itself nd the Allates as the

trget of n alring Su re belion campign supported by the same Su

states in coni with Ir, a siuaon that resembles much nowadays,

thou in a different policl nd geopolicl conte. During that me, Sa

received one ilion ee brrels of Ir oil per yer nd ther 5-7

ilion per yer at /3 iscont The Irain subsidy is imed to have been

worth of 269 ilion dollrs per yer and came at a time when e Syrin

economy was in prclar ouble.

The urblent domesc Syan ont since Mrch 20 at has led to the

adua reonl nd inteationl isolaon of the Sy reme hs brought

the two ces closer as ey shre ınaor interests cosidered at stke.

Driven by e essen ce of solidriy, Ir pursues the policy of econoc

soidicaon hus proviing the vital lteave to Syria. Speciclly

imporant step of satec essence has been e July 25 20 sing of a

0 bilion dlr natrl gas aeement beween Irn, Ira nd Syria wichforesees hat the tree coes will construct a pipeline ng om Irns

natrl gas elds to Syria nd eventually to the Meiterrnen, via Lebnon.

dditionally, Irn and Sya aeed to set up a joint bk in Damascus where

the iti capitlization of the bak is estimated to 30 ilion dollrs, with

Irn owng 6 percent of the bk, while on July 5, 20 the Irnin

Th rfinr was a millio doar apita proct that ommcd opations in

Fo a mo dtaild acount on t Sran-Iaian conomi rlatiosip during th 98 s, See Anoushiravan Ehtshami and Raond Hnnbush, an and an:Mdde Pe in a Peneaed Regna s, Routldg Plicatios, 997, pp.9899·

Undr ths agrnt Iraq would initiall rciv millio ubic mtrs p day, andSra to mlon cub trs pr da Iraq, Iran si atural gas agrmnt,", J Iran, Sia to St Up ot an," ss ay

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Supreme Leader expressed sup por for a proposal by Iran' s Center for

Satec Research (SR) to provide Syria with 5.8 biion dollars in aid3 The

Iran Minister of Indses and Mines Ali Akbar Merabian claimed in

Agust 2011 that the Islac Republic has 1.3 bilion dollars worth of various

projects nderwy in Sya, nd on September 2011 e joint Ir-Venezuela

ol compy VENIRG nounced pns to build oil renery in Syria

cpable of producng 140000 baels per day.3 Evidently Ir cold l a

dmenta role in ining e eects on any inteational or Arab

Legue sanctions ginst Syri.

With regards to Iraq Sia has been an inispensble reonal player whose

usual mdus opendi of workng angles to ensure that it remains relevanton Iraq has been the dominant policy n he post-Saddam era Syria has

demonsated over the years hat it wels tle power to off and on Iraqi

oppositon cvities by havng hosted Iraqi opposition conferences on Syn

so nuding Ba'ahsts, ibl eders and former Iraq reme loyalists and

by ng a blind eye on insrgents ansiting trough Syria into Iraq.

Therefore Iraq' s decision to reject the Arb egue sancons gainst Sa is

riven by secy along th economc considerations

Iraq is Syria' s largest Arab ading partner. Trde between Iraq and Sy

reached 2 bllion dolars in 2010 d is estimated to reach 3 bllion dolars in

2011 according to the Syrian entre for Stascs which has also disclosed

tlat in 2009, 52.5 percent of Syria's exports went to the Arab world, while 31.4

percent of that went to Iraq. Adtionally Damscus uses its ports on tle

Meterrean to bild an important ade route between Iraq d Erope.

Baghdd and Dscus have already aeed to re-open the Kirkuk-Banis oil

Tehran Rea to Gie Sia $58 illio," Reute, ul , 2011Iran Veezuela to ld Refiner in Sia," s Septe mber 22 201 aqi eput Foeign Ministe abid Abbaw sumarized Iraq s decision to reje theArab Leage sactions as follows O positn is manl econmic here is a tradeexchage between Iraq and Sria, ad ajt border

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pipeline, which exend o oil el in Norhe Iraq to the San port of

Bia. In fat in Septeber 2010 Iraq nd Sa ied n aeeent to

bld two new KirkkBnia pipeline; one with apait of 1.5 llion

bel per da would crr heavier crude ol wile aner pipeline wi

capacit of 1.25 llion bel per da wold rr ghter rude oil9 At a

e when Arab felow recled ther abaador o e Srin capitl

Iraq enterined ore th San buineen in eor to boot ade

between the two coe d a pact wa ied to proote a oaring

bilaterl ade that lread top 2 billion dollar a ear. Aditionll l ot

200000 Iraqi work nd receive alrie n Sria, ceenting eonoic

e at l-laered level.

With t relit ıind, a widepread non ee to adul gin

inte1ational politica bacng at, in the cae of Sria econoic non

hould be eploed alog th the treat of overwheling tar force

ndor cover ue of fore uch a forei porp to the owing red

oppoition veent otl known a the Free Sin Ar agint the

S ree. The Free Srin Ar (FSA) i deeed a iportnt eleent

in e S equaon d a n increaingl iicnt plaer that coldot lkel inuence the outoe of event The FSA wa forall nnoned

on Jl 29, 2011 d legel inclde defector for the Srin r of l

rnk, o cipt to bgaier generl and o a de vrie of obat

nit d orgizaon, incluing ke regie prop uh a the Repubc

Guard The FSA however, appear to be a relativel at onization with a

cond nd eadqurter in Turke poibl a et of reonl or rea

cond wi uborinate oup n Sria d accorng to eia report,one or two cobat eleent in Lebnon.°

Syria, Iraq to bld ppeline, Tehn Ties (Dily Nsppe) September 0, 010° e FSA allegedly operates thougout Syia, both in urba areas and in thecountryside. Forces are active n the orhwest Idlib, Aleppo, the cental regio (Homs,Hama, and Rastan), the coast arod Latakia, the south (eraa ad Houran), the east

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Try a n l s aly th Syrian rm rprly as h ida f

rss-brdr ilitary prans playing hwvr a gam f sms in lin

with h psin f Fran arding t wih th ran f a sriy zn

t pr ivilians alng th Try-Sy mmn brdr" wil nd

litary prtn nsr th dlivry f aid Arig t Trish

Daily Miiyet Fran has snt its ilita traiing frs t Try and

Lbann t ah th FSA wl Frnh Brish Libyan and Trish

authriis hav rahd amnt t snd arms int Syria

It sms at th as fSyria is dvlping at a iffrnt pa m th arlir

rvlutinary wav f prtsts n Tnisia and Ept Th Syri prsts hav

lad h vrall suppr f h rb id ass wil army wih

rprsnts h main fndatin f th Syan rm has rmaind uid

and has maintaind s allan t h ring lit

Hwvr th prlngatin f th dms instability in Syria prvidd

utsid pwrs th m t psitin thmslvs as artars f Syria s tr.

In h fa f h ngig failr f th Syrian rm t alm dms

nt d th inrasing rl f utsid pwrs Syri dal ld

mrph int a dangrus pssibiliy namly a Lbann-li ivil war r a

Libya-ind f ilita ntrvnn42

(Dayr al-Zawr, Ab Kamal, ad the Damascus area. e argest concetratio o these

forces appears to e in te cetral reon (Homs, Hama, and the srrodng aeas) Fora more detaile account o the FSAs structre ad operatios, Accessed at:htpsyiacomment.comAt a meetng, whch was held Istabul and included Tukish ocials, the Syriansrequested assistance from te Liban represetaves and were offered arms and,potentially, volunteers. See, Libyas New Rers fer Weapons to Syria Reels,Accessed at htp:w.teleaph.co uk Interview condcted wit a formerodaan rime iister in Amman on ovemer29, 2011.

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C. uS POLICIES ND BITIONS

Vs-A-V Y

Turky ha bcom mor focd on h lac wold and it ulim

adion in it fori policy though it rman a blnd of wt

ititution and orintaon Tky pru a ı of aional wt

ont d fori policy howvr it ha incorporatd two nw idolocal

lmnt th ro-problm/conct" and no-otomaim o

ottomaim i a Turih polica idolo43 that promot atr

ngagmnt h ara forly undr th Otoman Empir d ha

profondly bcom h nw concptual amwork of h Turih fori

policy.

Th dominant aional fori policy cntr on th cont coopraon

and intaon with th Wt namly ATO th ffort to acc th EU and

th ctom ion with th EU. Th EU i Turky major ading parr

acconng fo 42 prcnt of h coy total rad wl th S i

impoant in th litary nr d aaon ctor4 Th Trih litaryi havily dpndnt on h US upply d tcnology wi Trky rali

that rblnc in it immiat ntorag om Libya and Ira to

Afghatan and Pakit ncitat co coopration h th Wt and

ATO Eually intrng i th fact hat th Trkih ladrhip

acknowldg that part ofh con allr in th iddl Eat tm om

it ky poition in Wt club and intituo.

4 The sif in the rkish foreign pocy nde Tuut Özals govemet can edesied as te first sep of Neo-Otomansm See urinson, Alexander, Turkey'sEnente with Israel and bajan: t te deny and Secury n te Mdde East andCucasus Routledge ulications, 00, p. 94 Katinka asc and Raner Hermann, EU siness and Tkish Accession, eterfor European Refor Essays, Accesse at:htp//www. cer. org uk/sites/ default/files/pulicatios/atachmets /pdf/0/ essay_trkey_usiness_june7_foe -398. pdf

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Borrowing om the Weste rhetori tht Trkey is bridge between the Est

and e West, its woldview s expressed by its ledersp envisions

eonoilly nd ltrlly integrted Mide Est s e driver for pee

and not the sis-ridden periphery of tody. It is tis ontext tht Trkey

supports t s the lemte suessor of the tomn Empre should be the

fos of the re-estblishment of song Midle Est and Este

Meiterrnean regios exploitng the ideologal elements of the zero

problemsonits with neighbors and neo-otomaism wh employs the

onepts of Islmi solidarity and ofTrkish-Isli synthesis.

The new ideologial forei poiy element of the zero-problemsonts"

onentes on Trkeys eorts to resolve problems with its immeite near

brod This new element onits the trdionl poliy of letng long

te ozen oits fester. Upon ts, Trkey prsued an openg to Armei

tht imaxed wi e siging ofreoon protools, nd the support of the

Anan P to res ol ve the Cyprs queson 4

The seond forei poiy element inorportes the oneptul inedients of

neo-otomaism wih solidies Akars spirtions to re-engge esanged

neighbors and to serve s meitor in onits in the Midle Est and

elsewhere. It is in tis mework tht Trkey ws instrumentl in meding

between S and Isrel and in opeing ialogue wth oups witin Irq

inuding the urds The ide of Turkey employing its ltral and relios

links to the Midle Est for the dvanement of Turish interests and reonal

stbility hs gined momentum by veteran Trkish iplomt and Foreign

Miister Alımed Dvutoglu His theo, best expressed in hs book Strteg

Dept Strtek Dernl is tht most of the reonl regimes are

Lit of tru practical accompishnt has n achivd as th yprs qustion sstil unsolv I 009, Turk agrd to rciv a group of Kurdish rtns om Nor Iraqtrirng raions vaing om a warm ting y pro-P crowds to incdulousraions from Turks th Wst.

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ndemocrac and llegiimate nd therefore Turkey by capitlizing on e

leged adıiraon among Middle Eate poplation for it econoıi

ucce and o politic power reache over the reme to the Arab treet

In the ndet of the Arab treet Trkey i multi-dimenionl for a nber of

reao d th appelng; rt Trkey repreent a ue econo

mode at maged to move the cotry om the developing coe leve

to the power eonoc elite of the G-20 econd Turkey repreent a o

power of lam govence at lteate the democracy exercied by

Irael. In he Arab inet, Irae ed to repreent e bet model of

demoray in the reon rooted in olid principle and intituon Thi Arab

poion tarted to adully hge when rael took the deciion to proceedin peae negoaon wih he Pletiin nd filed to deiver peace

ivident epecially dng he lat ten yer Due to the pocl fact on the

ond, Trkey ha mnaged in lrge to replace Irael a the ole orce of

demrati airation4

To apitalize in it rapport wth the people nd it Otom experience a wel

a it uppoed iplmac expertie Turkey ha own itelf deeply into the

water of he Arab Sprig enviioig to pan it The Trkih paoniation

i atempted with it lamc orientation, e to reliouly conervative

contienie d lleged depread populrity among e Arab cric

ma. er the effervecent phae of ocial networing the Arab Sprig h

entered a cc! crve depicted in the eletrl advce of Ilamic pre,

wich have profounly led a polical void in thoe onte where

nprent policl nituon d elar pare have been abent and

The Turksh sucess is atribted to is technoo-led grow and trade arly due oits ustoms ion with the U wich is he best exors market as well as theinvestmens rom the ad he decades od tenological ansfer by te S andIsrael. Ineiew with Adnan Ab Ode, olitica advisor to ate ig Husse, a fomerSenator and former Chief of the Royal Cour Jordan, Amman, Deember 7 20

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46/100

Intaonal Couity sn ky assroots orgaizrs and avists

algly srv on th SC brsi Srtaat Gnral, and th

Exutiv Coitt. It is tis ontx hat th Trkish govnt

invitd a dlgaon of th SC o atnd th World Eono For

onfrn titld Platfor for Intaonal Cooration" ld in Istbul on

Novbr 2-25, 211. T onfrn as iorant vnu attndd by

govnt oials and businssol o or 0 os hr

th SNC dlgaon as offrd th ooty to adrss th hol assby

and rsnt th Conil s olitia agnda

Turky has thoiay anagd to njoy siiant olial out in th

Syan oosition ith th ai to b iquly ositiond in th ost-Assad

Sya. Th vi of th SC toards Trky is bst suazd by Ausaa

Monajd advisor to th Srt Gnral of th SNC uey s been

suppotie of te Syin evolution nd onsides Syis secuity nd

stbilit mtte ofntionl inteestfo te entie egion. Tuey nd ote

oties my ply positie ole duing te tnsition) but it will be up to

te Syin people to d te pt of tei tue. At te sme time) it is

ntul to epect Syins to emembe wo sided wit te people ofSyi

nd wo suppoted teAssds �

lectronc inteiew with Asama Monajed, Advisor to e Secretary Geeral f heSN, vember 8 1 Ibid. Ierestngy, Mr Monajed spped tha te SN holds taks and dialgeswi oher oppositin groups ad indepedents to uni the srate, and wrk ontoppling the regime eause the US and e have expessed sppor for the SN.However, the oun s waing fo moe reoal Ara b sppor. Fo this re ason te SNwil ontnue to work o beig more clusive Te SN delegatio icluded xecutive ofie memer and onomic Ofice hairmanSam Nashar, the Secretary of the General Secretaria Wael Meza, and members of theconmi Oice Mustaa al-Sabba and Ad Shishal. See Lcal ordiatinommitees, Syran atioal ounl Atends the Wld oomi Frum onerenein Isanul", Decm er 4, 011. Op.cit. Inteiew with Ausama Monajed

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The poicie of Trkey aaint he Syrian reme have been intenied with

the proviion of loical upport to the Free Syrian Army that employ

defector om the San army, and of poical upport for the forman of a

Mlitary Concil whoe main oal i to topple the reime and protect citizen,

public and private property and to prevent chao once the reme fall, while

it member cannot pacipate in any polical party or reliio movement

Turkey alleely eek the de ure etablihment of a no-y zone over Aleppo

in orthe Syria followin the example of Libya Specicaly the aim of he

no-y zone i o create a ecred zone tha would erve a hatarian

corridor7 d to Aleppo into a Syrian Behazi much ike the Libyan city

that erved a the poical and ıiitary b a e of the Li byan oppoion. T,

however i a riky ame a the experience th no-y zone over cone

ha hown that uch meaure in e abence of any viable polical olution

complicate the iuaon The cae of Iraq i ndicave where he

impoition of a no-y zone over he Krih area n orthe Iraq and he

Siite reon in e outh of he couny without a prior mdate om e

Security Concil ha enjoyed ited ucce between 1991 and 203

nder e protecon of S force, hat deoyed e anti-aircra defene of

Iraq and the litay bae on he ound, e Kr etablihed de o

autonomy in ore Iraq A e ame me, he oue1 part of he

con connue to be under a tate of complee lack of ecrity and daily

armed ahe, takin for ted he enry of iiant of Ilaıit

orazaon uch a al-Qaeda

On a parallel bai Trkey upport e econoic ancon aant Sya apropoed by the Arab Leaue. Havn coidered it improvin relaon wih

Sya a a key forei policy ucce dn he lat decade, Trkey ha

Frane has uled out miary ation agains Syia ut alls for te creation of a seuredzoe tha will reuire ıilita protetion o ensure te delery of huıanitaian ai d See

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invstd havily nd solidid onomi oopraion th its Arab nighbor.

Mo r thn 5 amnts nd mmranda of drstning in fils rnging

om nsportaon and sty to nr and watr ar in pla, th most

satly importnt nvisioning th irrigaon of 15, hrs of

farlnd in provin of al-Hasakh using watr om th Tis rivr as

wl as th onson of a dam on th Oronts rivr for powr gnran

nd irgaon. Th lloaon nd us of th Tigris ivr watrs forms

adionl or of politia d sat onsidraons for Syria, thrfor

th shng of bn ts and xprs btwn h two ons prsntd a

major shi om h inatabl approah of th past

Euly imporant has bn h amnt for th liag of Sya's naturalgas piplin at is par of th 12 kilomtr "Arab Natur Gas Piplin

at xports Egypn narl gas to Jo rdan Syria nd Lbon, a

sprat lin to Isral to h proposd N abuo piplin that rosss Trky

om Cnl Asia into Europ n wih aims to onst nothr vin that

ll support Nauo projt It is importnt to not that Syria prhass

round 1.5 bilion kilowats of lity om Trky lly to mt its

inrasing nr ns

Also, ad btwn two ouns xpdd to suh lvls at Trky's

ad volum rahd bilion dollrs as of 29, il invstmnts of

Ryan Mauro, Reors or Coing ilitary Actio Syria" Noeber 5 011.Acessed at ht/ /wfrontagemagoIt s true that Syria and Tkey came closer to ding a understading on water andseity issues with te enaned pos-003 biateral rpocheen. Joint roectsand the shaing of exerise ad bees were adocated Sine 005, Tra II hannels

hae aso gathered exers ad forme offials fro the wo o-riaran ouniesthoug te Euhrates and Tiis Initatie or ooeration I. For more on thetoi, See aa Daoudy, Syian-Tukish Hydodiloay", Tody (MonhlyMgzne), Janua 010 Hasa anbolat, Eonomc reatios etween Turey and Syria, Tods ZmnOtober 3 0

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Turish compes in Syria accont to nearly 26 ilion dollrs The

siing of agreements on Preventing Doule Taxaon "the Recprocl

Smlus nd Protection of Investments as well as the estalishment of e

"Free Trade eement provided the legl foundatons at ind e two

counties nd wch fresee that in a 2-yer period, indusa produs

expored om Trkey to Sya will e ee om cstom txes in increments

wle products entering Trkey om Syria re currenty entrely ee om

customs txes

Therefore, Turkeys sspension of ncl relations with Sya and the

eezng of Syrin govement assets in e country have he potenl to

cause a seous setack n ilatera trade and econoıic relaions overal Syriafor its prt has lready sck out at Trkey y placing a 3 percent triff on

Turish imports thus increasing the prices of Trkish prodcts that

jmped 3-4 percent oveght In response Trkey opene two addinal

crossings to raq in order to assst locl merts to ypass Syria n ade

the Glf nd Ept. a prlle asis, Trkey noced at t wil

stop ll nsactions th the Commercial B of Syria except for e

esng ones, and that t will hlt l credit aeements signed wth Eimnto nnce Syrin nasuctre projects

a Turkey}s Regional Moivaions

It is no seret that Trkey un der its cent leadersip has invested major

political captal in methodologicy deepenng relatios with Syria and

constituted a ready meiator willng to help Damascus mend its strained

o Republc of Turey, Miistry of Freign Affairs key-Syria comic and TradeReatios", 2010 Turey has annunce that it has already frzen neary 250 millin dollas inxibak credit to be used in proects in Syra. Hurre Dal s, Trade with SyriaHit by Turey' s Sains" Noveber 30 2011

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relations with neighbors such as Israel. Trkey has facilitated a series of

Syn-Israeli peace tks that ended in Decembe 28 with the mn focus

on that if Syria were able to aieve peace with secty nd obtin eater

US nd Trsh involvement it might be llng to pll away om Irns

orbit Therefore the chnge in Trkey's posre towrd Israel has been lgely

a to ol to advce the co s re-orientaon rather th ny sense in its

cause The decline of Trkey' s relaosip with Israe that stred in Davos in

response to Israes December 28 invasion of aa d later on over the

lla episode abd the Mavi Mrmra provided the basis for Turkey's

ambiious reona agenda, one that primrily trgets Iin postre

The moves of he nfolding Trkish poicy svis Syria lie beind tscoitment to re-arm Trkey s ose relaonsp with the US nd i ts

intenon to outweigh Irnian reonl inuence. The vlry between S

Trkey nd Sia Irn is not new. On he con it is istoclly rooted since

Trkey nd Irn re widely viewed as the iminished heirs of two maor

compeng Msim empres the SOtom Empre and the Slite Safavid

Empire, nd tis rivalry has cently evolved to the egos level of Trkish

Prime Minister Erdogn and Iran President hmainead.

In ceran aspects, Sa seems to have become tle focs of tle Iran

Trkish vlry that lrgely touches upon the inteests nd epectations of

reonal conies nd he West. Speciclly egionl cones ike Saui

rabia Qatr nd Brin tl1at mintin lrge Slte ınories have invested

heavly in puig forwrd rab League scons against Sya d support

tl1e increasing role of Trkey n na-Arab affirs since ey view e Syrin

risis as a golden oppo ty to iiish Irnian inuence d postre in theher of the Midle East3 ccoring to e lf States pespecve Irn

Inteew ndue with a mer Jrania Freign inste Amman,Decemer 8, 2011 The Shiite minities the Aab wrld are widesread an numerus. In SaAraba, the Shiite eleent acts t ar erent, ahrain er 70 ercent Iraq

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anticipates that Siite oups in the CC states are sated by ther failure

to establish deocracy and ipose liits on authoritan rle, nd therefore

it is a ater of ie for these oups to to the Iran big brother" for

support.

Upon this line of thought, an Iraqi ofcial ho eets ih Irai

policyakers on a reglar basis has claied at a oup n Iran oced a

project involving nationl Shiite security", and exaines the Jeish

experient in exporng their idea sloly nd clly," apparently a reference

to nteaonl Zionist orgaiations' role in advocating pro-Israel interests. 64

Te Siite protests in Balrin in the ist of the Arab spng ere porayed

by the ulf states as a setarin Shiite plot indicaive of the fer of he

expanded Irnin and Ste inuence on the predoinatly Su Arab

orld, nd not as a iscontent steed cey o Siites loer standrd of

living, nofcial exclsion o sesive goveıent posions, and Su

do ination of parliaent.

lf States idely behold at a possibe overro of the onarchy n

Barain hose 70 percent of the populaon is Shiite could serve as

springboard for Iran abions that perceive Bran as the 14 province

of Irn. The ulf States interests coincide ith those of the West d Turkey

since Irani doince is also apprehended as posing a satec treat to

vita secty assets. For exaple, Blrin hosts the Naval Support Acvity

Brain (NSA Brin) d tlıe US Navy eet headquarters. Literay

located in the heart of the lf e naval b ase and the headquarters re a key

satec asset for he US presence in e der Midle East as hey perit

tlıe overlong of oil istalaons d ade routes e support of the US

aot 6 percent, uwat aod 30 percent Qatar almost 5 ecet an Leaonaroun 30 eenteew onducte in Athes July 5 011. The Iraqi offiial sa that Iraniaeffor to expo t ideolo will e qet in a way that w ot e immeateynoticeae t will shae the egion.

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forces in Iraq nd histn, nd the ght against navl piracy in the Red

nd the Arabin Seas.

It is in ts geopolic mework that Trkey spıng to braden its

horizons has got itself deeply into the waters of the Syrin risis to diish

the Irnin nuence d present itself as e neo-ottomn mediator d

defender of the larger Su Msim neighborhood, wi he ulmate aim to

sere as e hor for a new geopolic liment Trkish Forei Mister

ed Datogolu adited inhe recent past that "rther wht we Trkey

re trying t d is t ntribte t the estbishment permnent pece in

r regin Iby rder this is Px Ottmn Px in the mening rder we

Trkey re trying t estbish n rder it is nt wrng t sy sh thing

The Trkish rivlry wth Irn seems to take into accont its reonl

ambitions for establishng a regional order with a wath eye on the interests

of eater outside powers By enrclng diplomacally nd possibly ilitrily

Sya Trkey esmates that Iraq and Lebon wil follow st d thus a

coincidene of Weste1 nd Tursh interests will empower he reon

leadership role of Trkey wih the blessng of the former. Concently Iraq

presents n rena of Trish-Irain compeon and Weste interests

where he Shiite-Su dvide is doinnt nd where the Irin inuene

has exended over religious Site polic pares at shape Iraqi politis at

tl1e nationl level nd at e provinci d loc levels in Cenral d

Southe Iraq Lebnon for its pr is lrgely perceived as e satellite of Ir

nd tl1erefore, Trkey onces about er cosolidation of Irn

iuence ner its borders through the enhnced power of Hezbollah

r atur, New Otomans is ot a Good Wled Desciption Sabah sDecemer 4 2009.


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b. Turkey-s DomesicAgenda ands ReZevance o Syria

There has been a cerin deee of rtist by the Trkish leadership in tilng

Turkey towrds the Middle East th the redeion of its domesc porities

nd polics Thogh few expected that the EU ll embrace Trkey

membership a Trkish abitin viewed according to a former Jordin

forei miister more like the hope of the devil in heaven6 Trkish me

Miister Erdogn exploited the profound EU rejecon to nderine tatrk's

Westezing legacy and to pursue n ambitios domesc agenda

Havng relized the rgent need to address the issue of Trkey s minories

nd of a non-militry solution to the Krdish problem with a cler disnction

between meeting the needs of the Krdish poplation nd defeang the

Krdistns Workers P the P Turkey advesed the so-called Nationl

Uity project whose nature directed towrds the cont's minoty oups,

most prominently the Krds nd the Alevis, that mintin a sigicant

presence in neighboring cones like Sya

The Trkish govement s iiti efforts to reach out to the Krds to cal m the

trbulent intel ont have become tile The early encoragement to start

sng e Kurdish laage in the policl nd public renas was widely

accepted by the rds alog wi e Turkish govement' s aeement to

receive a oup of Krdish reees om N orthe Iraq in 209 Reforms

nd gestres towards the Kurdish ethnic minority were accredited to the

aonal iy proect indicating that democrazation is part of the solution

to tl1e Krdish issue to lly defeat Krdish seprasts . The rgn1ent that

tl1e sengheing of the society leads to a strong state di d not go han d in hndth reforng the constion to recoize that Trkey has ceran

norities whose rights ofrelion nd eedm of expressin re secred

Inteiew conted wth a forer Jodanan Foeign minister in Amman,Decemer 8, 011


54/100

On a prlel bai the outlne of a roadmap for n openg to the Alevi

viewed a aherent of a form of Ilam inuenced by Shiim nd Sm wa a

major apect of the Naon ty project. The Turkih govement

ponored a erie of workhop to adre Alevi iue hat perined to

nng e houe the tatu of worip place, openg a pecil ititute

to train Alevi eri nd upp orng nncially e operaional cot of the

houe Neverhele, the openg ha not gained any action due to lak

of genuine engagement wih Alevi orgazaon exept fo EyZ Beyt widely

een a in bed wih the Turkih govement. Alevi remned largely kepc

to e project a evidenced in a ey conducted by he Eurain Publi

Reerch Center whih howed that 339 perent uppored that they re

trget of perment dicmination, wle only percent believed at he

Turih govement w inere wih it Naonl Uty rojet. 67

The Turkih govement iitil pln to reach out to the Kur nd e

Alevi led to increaing ticim of the project by all egment of the Turih

meia nd the poitical oup, u de-generaing e iiti debate, d

prompng the Trkih govement to abandn it rhetorc ab out the Naon

Uiy poject.

Coming to today ritic ituaon n Sya nd the onicting relaonp of

Turkey wth it once cloe lly there are increaing woe hat the former i

in poion to exploit the Krih nd Alevi rd to create intabiliy to e

latter' dometic ont. The inability of Turkey to apply e "ero

probleınconict poiy wih neibor to it o Southeat with the

promoon of the aonl nty project may prove, der he urrent

rcmtance, dementl to it natonl nteret The Trkih leaderip'

recent eat to increae it ıit preence acro the Syrian boder may

be nufient to deter Sya d Irn om ubveively upporng Krih

The surey was pushed y Turish daiy Chuye wich also repoed that Alevswere suspios aut the Turkish gvernment's National Unity ojet.

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seprasts, while the Trsh prime isters late vember 211 apl

fr explsins nd massacres against Alevis in the Eastern prvince f Dersim

in 197-199 was perceived as prvave ant t e Alevis.

Fr a mprehensive peing, Turkey needs t have preeded t himplementatin f effective pliies that wuld have ver the lng-term

imprved the ecnmic plicl nd cltrl life f Trkeys Kurds nd

Alevis , therefre preventing their explitan by ren players

Te interview f President Assad at the Sy TV n Augst 21, 211 sent a

cncrete message t all direcs h Trkey being csidered as the main

recipient accrdng t wh The cnsequenes ny tn gnst Syr

wuld exeed by r wht they cld pssbly ber r tw resns. Frst) the

gepltcl psn Syr nd send the Syrn pbltes nly sme

whh they wuld be ble t ber The untres tht mke threts re

themseles wek pltclly nd slly They re wek) muh weker thn

n the ps 6

Lking at Trkey s dmes nt, ne nt help but see that nwadays it

has t de h the lndsape faces nt aesthetically but pragmaclly tmeet emerng challenges

Syria State T, nteriew f Syria President ash r al-Assad Augst 21, 201.

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D JORDN'S POLITICL ND ILOMTIC

POSTURE

In the oen tıltuos politics of the Midle East, the Hsheite King dom

of Jordn has adtionlly steered a cauos nd successl corse in

inte1ational relations lrgely relng on a coservative foreign pocy nd the

ceıenng of relations with reonl nd inteational states nd instutios.

The ıoentm events n Tuisia

Documents

Anatonia L.dimou - The Crisis in Syria Diplomacy , Regional Challenges and Options