Peak Car?

Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012

Industrialized countries hit a plateau

International comparison, index of absolute car km per year

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Billion car km in Sweden per year

SIKA annual report

GDP index, fixed prices

Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,Trafikanalys körsträckor 1999-2012

Economic growth explains less

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

GDP per capita, index

Car km per adult, index

Inverse gas price, index

Inde

x

Money matters a lotTotal Sweden, 2002 index per adult

Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; GDP and adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se, bensin gas prices from spbi.se, all prices are inflation adjusted

Örebro

Halmsta

dM

ora

Vaxholm

Göteborg

Stock

holm

Södertä

lje

Solle

ntuna

Huddinge

Sundbyb

erg

Total Sw

eden0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Car driver km per adult per day

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se

Money matters a lot …given good alternatives

Peak Car in the cities - Why?

Investments and Policy• Mode and destination

alternatives!• Central housing• Parking, Congestion

Economy• Cost of driving• Income distribution,

employment

Peak Car in the cities - Why?

Lifestyles and Technology• Virtual trips and trip planning• Fewer but longer trips, flights• Youth delays licensing• Wealthier and healthier

pensioners

Investments and Policy• Mode and destination

alternatives!• Central housing• Parking, Congestion

Economy• Cost of driving• Income distribution,

employment

Peak Car in the cities - Why?

Investments and Policy• Mode and destination

alternatives!• Central housing• Parking, Congestion

Demography and Urbanization!• Growing cities (especially young, single, immigrant, habits still

forming)• Later family forming and employment, more students• Self selection, e.g. new parents moving to the suburbs

Economy• Cost of driving• Income distribution,

employment

Lifestyles and Technology• Virtual trips and trip planning• Fewer but longer trips, flights• Youth delays licensing• Wealthier and healthier

pensioners

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Opposite trends by life cycle group

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Opposite trends by life cycle group

More immigration – new habits

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Share of foreign born among 25-54 year olds

citiessuburb to cities densely populated regions

Souce: scb.se

More asylum immigration since 2006

Örebro

Halmsta

dM

ora

Vaxholm

Göteborg

Stock

holm

Södertä

lje

Solle

ntuna

Huddinge

Sundbyb

erg

Total Sweden

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Cars per adult

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Opposing car access trends

Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se

Cars get driven somewhat less(Multimodality, new habits, different owners, alternatives, economy)

Örebro Halmstad Mora Vaxholm Göteborg Stockholm Södertälje Sollentuna Huddinge Sundbyberg Total Sweden

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

km per car per day

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se

• Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options• Prepare for change in financing / taxes• Potential to steer is greater than assumed• Combine financial incentives with improved alternatives

– Congestion charge, parking space and price– Dense, mixed use, attractive centers. Fewer distant shopping centers– Public transit, walk, cycle alternatives

Conclusions

Peak Car?

Anne Bastian, CTS/KTHanne.bastian@abe.kth.se