Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

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Peak Car?. Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH. I ndustrialized countries hit a plateau. International comparison, index of absolute car km per year. Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012. Economic growth explains less. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Peak Car?

Anne Bastian, CTS/KTHCar km in Sweden: Continued growth, saturated steady state, trend reversal?

Implications: Policy and infrastructure investments, city and land use planning, climate goals, tax revenues, quality of life, business opportunities,

Understand underlying causes to target investment and policy decisions1

Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012Industrialized countries hit a plateauInternational comparison, index of absolute car km per yearSlowdown in many industrial countries at different timessame trend direction across countries

------------------------Theories for different timing : - Japan has oldest population -> ageing effects hit firstUS was most motorized and car dependent -> motorization of older generations had already happened and could not counterbalance declines among younger generations

France and US car travel declines driven by total travel demand declines. Germany and UK reductions more driven by mode shifts (Kuhnimhof,..)Trend change interacting with many different variables, therefore interest and research now 10 years laterNot only economic reasons: Slowdown starts before 2008 crisis2Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,Trafikanalys krstrckor 1999-2012Economic growth explains lessSlowdown in many industrial countries incl Sweden. starts before 2008 crisis

Old logic: Economic growth-> higher incomes-> more cars-> more and longer trips ->more km

Now Decoupling from GDP, need for disaggregate analysis 3Money matters a lotTotal Sweden, 2002 index per adultSource: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; GDP and adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se, bensin gas prices from spbi.se, all prices are inflation adjustedSource: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se Money matters a lot given good alternatives

Peak Car in the cities - Why?

Investments and PolicyMode and destination alternatives!Central housingParking, CongestionEconomyCost of drivingIncome distribution, employment

Complexity beyond GDP and age groups. Drivers accroding to ITF round table, Goodwin,

Car travel behaviorLife stylesStatus symbols (car vs. phone)EnvironmentSharing vs. owning, accommodating changeMultimodality

DemographicsUrbanization,Longer education, later family formingAgeingImmigration, EconomyGDP, gas prices(youth) unemployment, income growth and distributionHousing market, labor market location and participationCost of licensing, car drivingConsumer and investor confidencePolicy and investmentsCongestion, traffic policy, parking conditionsAlternative mode availability, location, quality, pricingLand use / densityTechnologyIT(virtual meetings and shopping, global contacts, real time updates)Evolving transport modes6Peak Car in the cities - Why?

Lifestyles and TechnologyVirtual trips and trip planningFewer but longer trips, flightsYouth delays licensingWealthier and healthier pensioners

Investments and PolicyMode and destination alternatives!Central housingParking, CongestionEconomyCost of drivingIncome distribution, employment

Complexity beyond GDP and age groups. Drivers accroding to ITF round table, Goodwin,

Car travel behaviorLife stylesStatus symbols (car vs. phone)EnvironmentSharing vs. owning, accommodating changeMultimodality

DemographicsUrbanization,Longer education, later family formingAgeingImmigration, EconomyGDP, gas prices(youth) unemployment, income growth and distributionHousing market, labor market location and participationCost of licensing, car drivingConsumer and investor confidencePolicy and investmentsCongestion, traffic policy, parking conditionsAlternative mode availability, location, quality, pricingLand use / densityTechnologyIT(virtual meetings and shopping, global contacts, real time updates)Evolving transport modes7

Peak Car in the cities - Why?

Investments and PolicyMode and destination alternatives!Central housingParking, CongestionDemography and Urbanization!Growing cities (especially young, single, immigrant, habits still forming)Later family forming and employment, more studentsSelf selection, e.g. new parents moving to the suburbsEconomyCost of drivingIncome distribution, employment

Lifestyles and TechnologyVirtual trips and trip planningFewer but longer trips, flightsYouth delays licensingWealthier and healthier pensioners

Complexity beyond GDP and age groups. Drivers accroding to ITF round table, Goodwin,

Car travel behaviorLife stylesStatus symbols (car vs. phone)EnvironmentSharing vs. owning, accommodating changeMultimodality

DemographicsUrbanization,Longer education, later family formingAgeingImmigration, EconomyGDP, gas prices(youth) unemployment, income growth and distributionHousing market, labor market location and participationCost of licensing, car drivingConsumer and investor confidencePolicy and investmentsCongestion, traffic policy, parking conditionsAlternative mode availability, location, quality, pricingLand use / densityTechnologyIT(virtual meetings and shopping, global contacts, real time updates)Evolving transport modes8

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Opposite trends by life cycle group Older and female car drivers are cancelling out young males drop.

Increase among older females driven by licensing and own car access (generation shift)

Narrowing gender gap, but its still there, e.g. males do more long trips by car.

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Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Opposite trends by life cycle group Older and female car drivers are cancelling out young males drop.

Increase among older females driven by licensing and own car access (generation shift)

Narrowing gender gap, but its still there, e.g. males do more long trips by car.

10More immigration new habitsSouce: scb.seMore asylum immigration since 2006

Opposing car access trendsSource: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se Less urban municipalities, households upgrading to one car per driver

Overall car access stable, but result of opposite trends12Cars get driven somewhat less(Multimodality, new habits, different owners, alternatives, economy)Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible optionsPrepare for change in financing / taxesPotential to steer is greater than assumedCombine financial incentives with improved alternativesCongestion charge, parking space and priceDense, mixed use, attractive centers. Fewer distant shopping centersPublic transit, walk, cycle alternatives

ConclusionsUncertainty not just in estimating traditional input parameters (GDP, unemployment, gas price ) but also in what other factors drive car travel and to what degree and how they interact. E.g. lifestyle, immigrants, urbanization, technology, policy,...14

Peak Car?

Anne Bastian, CTS/KTHanne.bastian@abe.kth.seCar km in Sweden: Continued growth, saturated steady state, trend reversal?

Implications: Policy and infrastructure investments, city and land use planning, climate goals, tax revenues, quality of life, business opportunities,

Understand underlying causes to target investment and policy decisions15