Anticipating Extreme Anticipating Extreme Hydrologic EventsHydrologic Events

……how real-time data empowers how real-time data empowers communities and individuals to communities and individuals to

survive and recover from disasterssurvive and recover from disasters

AMS Corporate ForumAMS Corporate ForumSession 6: Weather, Climate and Water ResourcesSession 6: Weather, Climate and Water Resources

22-23 March 2007, Washington DC22-23 March 2007, Washington DC

Kevin G. Stewart, P.E.Kevin G. Stewart, P.E.President, National Hydrologic Warning CouncilPresident, National Hydrologic Warning CouncilManager, Information Services and Flood Warning ProgramManager, Information Services and Flood Warning ProgramUrban Drainage and Flood Control DistrictUrban Drainage and Flood Control DistrictDenver, ColoradoDenver, Colorado

Katrina

Tsunami

Central Valley Levees

Extreme Hydrologic EventsExtreme Hydrologic Events

Big Thompson

Dam Failure

Opportunities to Opportunities to address needsaddress needs

Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge

Katrina caused Katrina caused many communities many communities to ask what their to ask what their “worst case” natural “worst case” natural disaster might look disaster might look like and how they like and how they could best prepare could best prepare for such an event.for such an event.

Boulder Boulder ColoradoColorado

Local Local InvestmentInvestment

Flood Prediction Center

PrivateMeteorologist

Automated weatherstation

ALERT Rain Gage

Satellite-linkedUSGS stream

gage

ALERTrain/stream gage

Real-Time Hydrologic DataReal-Time Hydrologic Data

Not too interesting for Not too interesting for most people…most people…

……until people like you make until people like you make products like these…products like these…

……and these.and these.

Empowered to develop plans Empowered to develop plans to warn proactively…to warn proactively…

The drainage basinThe drainage basin descriptions, facilities, hydrology, flood history, descriptions, facilities, hydrology, flood history,

problem areas, problem areas, flood routing/timingflood routing/timing

Decision aidsDecision aids ALERT system, flash flood guidance, ALERT system, flash flood guidance,

inundation areasinundation areas CommunicationsCommunications Meteorological supportMeteorological support

National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service Private MeteorologistPrivate Meteorologist

Flood threat recognition and warning Flood threat recognition and warning processprocess

Procedures and general responsibilitiesProcedures and general responsibilities Public disseminationPublic dissemination Media contactsMedia contacts Annual revisions and practicesAnnual revisions and practices

……and practice those plans.and practice those plans.

Empowered to IntegrateEmpowered to Integrate

Real-time synchronization of surface rainfall measurements, radar imagery and storm track forecasting model

Opportunities to EducateOpportunities to Educate

Opportunities to ShareOpportunities to Share

National Hydrologic Warning CouncilNational Hydrologic Warning CouncilJune 11-14, 2007June 11-14, 2007

nhwc.udfcd.org

Opportunities to help a Opportunities to help a neighborneighbor

Empowered to improve Empowered to improve communicationscommunications

Empower people to protect Empower people to protect themselvesthemselves

When if comes to determining When if comes to determining wise use of limited resources…wise use of limited resources…

……do not underestimate the do not underestimate the value of the mundane.value of the mundane.

AMS Statement onAMS Statement onClimate ChangeClimate Change

Final remarksDespite the uncertainties noted above, there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. Focusing on the next 30 years, convergence among emission scenarios and model results suggest strongly that increasing air temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift snowmelt timing, reduce crop production and rangeland fertility, and cause continued melting of the ice caps

and sea level rise. Important goals for future work include the need to Important goals for future work include the need to understand the relation of climate at the state and regional level understand the relation of climate at the state and regional level to the patterns of global climate andto the patterns of global climate and to reverse the decline in to reverse the decline in observational networksobservational networks that are so critical to accurate climate that are so critical to accurate climate monitoring and prediction.monitoring and prediction.

Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of the impacts of climate change. Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Some continued climate change is inevitable, and the policy debate should also consider the best ways to adapt to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.