Conference * Date

Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management and Adaptive Planning

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PD. Dr.-Ing. Jörn BirkmannAcademic Programme OfficerHead of SectionBonn, Germanybirkmann@ehs.unu.edu

“Assessing Vulnerability in the Context of Multiple-Stressors”

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Global Approaches

Concept for a World Risk & Vul. Index

2Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Formular

3Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Susceptibility

4Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Susceptibility (hazard independent)

5Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Coping Capacity

6Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Limited Coping Capacity

7Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Identification of Structural Problems

Country Risk Vulnerability Exposure Susceptibility Coping Capacity Adaptation

Haiti

0,209;

Rank 37

0,727;

Rank 9

0,29;

Rank 77

0,665;

Rank 15

0,910;

Rank 8

0,629;

Rank 20

0,138; 0,648; 0,22; 0,431; 0,869; 0,662;

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Pakistan

0,138;

Rank 85

0,648;

Rank 41

0,22;

Rank 143

0,431;

Rank 58

0,869;

Rank 28

0,662;

Rank 9

Total number of countries 246

max. value 1

Source: Birkmann et al. 2010b

Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies

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Adaptation Strategies

Case Study Mekong Delta

Indicators selected

g 39,000 km2

g 18 million inhabitants

g 2/3 of the area are used foragricultural production

g National importance :

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g National importance :

• 50% of the rice production

• Over 50% of the fish production

• 60% of the fruit production

Source: Image/Sensor: MODIS Picture: Birkmann 2009

Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

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Legend:

Source: Carew-Reid, 2008 - Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in Viet Nam. ICEM

Natural Hazards: VN Mekong Delta

Vietnamese Mekong Delta- Floods (Inland)

- Salinization processes- Storms and Strom Surges (Intensity)

- Sea Level Rise

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(Interrelations Tide and Estuarine Dynamics)

Flood Disasters

Year Affected Households

Deads (Children)

Damages(only direct damage)

2000 900.000 501 (347) 270 million USD

2001 300.000 407 (321) 100 million USD

Source: Neefjes, 2002; Picture: Birkmann 2008

Consequences: SLR

g Approx. 5 million people in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (approx. 18% of the population) would be affected by sea level rise of one meter (Carew-Reid 2008)

g Indirect: degradation of environmental services and environmental functions, e.g. soils – important implications of livelihood strategies

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g Most likely „socio-ecological tipping points“ will be reached

g Economic liberalization processes (Doi Moi) will cause most likely a further reduction of social protection regimes

Ho Chi Minh City

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ICEM Study for Ho Chi Minh City

Map: Predicted extent of flooding in extreme events under the A2 scenario for HCMC

g Temperature increase of 1-2°C until 2050

g It is expected that a SLR of 1 m would imply a loss of 40% of the city area

15Source: International Centre for Environmental Management, 2009: 26; Pictures: Bach 2008/09

g Until 2070 it is expected that approx. 70% of the urban area of Ho Chi Minh City might be affected by floods and inundations (without adaptation)

g Current planning activities consider a SLR of 30 cm

g Salinization and saltwater intrusion due to SLR

Limits of Adaptation

Impacts of extreme floods and sea level rise on lan d use in HCMC (2050 extreme events)

Land use Affected area without new dykes and flood protection

Affected area with dykes and flood protection

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Urban Areas 61% 49%

Industrial 67% 63%

Open Space 77% 76%

Source: International Centre for Environmental Management, 2009:

Protection/ Intervention Measures

Sluice Gates

Interventions

Resettlement

Dykes

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Houses on pillars

Mini Dykes

Pictures: Birkmann 2009

Salinization Floods

Adaptation at Household Level

Case Study Can Tho:

71% of all households interviewed elevated their house/floor at least once over the last 50 years

18Source: Garschagen, 2010

Who is paying the costs of adaptation?

19Source: Garschagen, 2010

Indicators selected

Case I

Adaptive and resilient system

Case II Adaptive system, lack of

resilience

Case III Lack of adaptive capacities

and resilience

New State I no resilience and no adaptation potential

State before adaptation

New State I stronger, more resilient and adapted than before, but lacks resources for

further adaptation

State before adaptation

New State I due to availability and proper use

of resources stronger, more resilient and adapted than before

State before adaptation

First order adaptation

Limited or no ability to adapt

at all

Different adaptation measures like dykes,

relocation, etc.

Different adaptation measures like dykes,

relocation etc.

1st Phase

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Source: own figure

New State II -

problems increase

New State II adjusted, problems

reduced

Second order adaptation Different adaptation

measures to adapt to the consequences of first order measures

Limited or no ability to adapt to the consequences

of first order measures

Ability to live with the changes

Inability to live with the changes introduced by first order adaptation

measures

Inability to implement any

adaption measures

Outcome

2nd Phase

Source: Birkmann, 2010c

First Conclusions

g Vulnerability mapping needs to go beyond the analysis of exposure to hazards.

g Exposure mapping might privilege structural measures (exposure reduction through physical structures)

Vulnerability assessment requires the consideration of exposure,

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g Vulnerability assessment requires the consideration of exposure, susceptibility, coping and adaptation as well as spatial and temporal dynamics

g Disasters can also function as a catalyst for change (see in detail Birkmann et al. 2009)

g Adaptation: We need to promote a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning and governance processes (see Birkmann et al. 2010a)

Challenges: Mapping Vulnerability

Scale-Dimension- Linking data from different scales- Capturing different temporal scales- Balancing different functional scales

Normative-Dimension- Thresholds versus scenarios- Guiding visions

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Access-Dimension- Access to information

and resources- Target groups

Knowledge-Dimension- Combination of different data

and knowledge sources - Acknowledgement of the limits of information

Information forAdaptive Governance

Source: Birkmann et al. 2010a

Thank you for your attention!

The End

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birkmann@ehs.unu.eduwww.ehs.unu.edu

g Birkmann, J. (2006) Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards – Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, UNU-Press, New York, Tokyo

g Birkmann, J., Buckle, P; Jäger,, J.; Pelling, M.; Setiadi, N.; Garschagen, M.; Fernando, N.; Kropp, J.; (2009) Extreme Events and Disasters: A Window of Opportunity for Change? – Analysis of Changes, Formal and Informal Responses After Mega Disasters, Natural Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069-008-9319-2

g Birkmann, J; Garschagen, M; Kraas, F.; Quang, N. (2010a): Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change, Sustainability Science 5(2), p. 185-206

Bibliography

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g Birkmann, J (2010) First and Second Order Adaptation to Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change, Natural Hazards (submitted)

g Birkmann, J.; Krause, D; Welle, T.; Suarez, D.; Wolfertz, J.; (2010b): A concept for a world risk index, Study for the Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Bonn

g Carew-Reid, J. (2008) Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in Viet Nam. International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM), Hanoi, Viet Nam.

g Garschagen, M. (2010) Assessing Present and Future Vulnerabilities to Water-Related Hazards in the Mekong Delta’s Urban Areas – The Challenge to Factor-In Dynamic Trends Under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change, presentation given at: 3rd WISDOM PhD Scientific Seminar in Bonn, 27-29 January 2010.

g International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) (2009) Ho Chi Minh City Adaptation to Climate Change, Volume 2.

g Neefjes, K. (2002) Lessons from the floods: Voices of the people, local authorities, and disaster management agencies from the Mekong Delta in Vietnam – Summary. Hanoi: Vietnam Red Cross and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies