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Approaching Global Financials Approaching Global Financials Guy de Blonay November 2007

Approaching Global Financials

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Approaching Global Financials. Guy de Blonay November 2007. Agenda. Introduction Important and diverse sector Opportunities Case studies Summary Appendix. Sub-sectors: Regional Banks Investment Banks Thrifts and Mortgage Banks Broker Dealers Asset Managers Life Insurance - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Approaching Global Financials

Approaching Global FinancialsApproaching Global Financials

Guy de Blonay

November 2007

Page 2: Approaching Global Financials

2

Introduction

Important and diverse sector

Opportunities

Case studies

Summary

Appendix

Agenda

Page 3: Approaching Global Financials

3

Index Financial Services as % of Index

S&P 500 (US) 22.2%

CAC 40 (France) 23.3%

DAX (Germany) 27.6%

FTSE 100 (UK) 30.4%

Topix 100 (Japan) 27.2%

S&P/TSX Comp (Canada)

31.9%

All Ordinaries (Australia)

42.4%

MSCI World 26.6%

Source: Datastream at 31.01.2007.

Sector important and diverse

Sub-sectors:

Regional Banks

Investment Banks

Thrifts and Mortgage Banks

Broker Dealers

Asset Managers

Life Insurance

Non-Life Insurance (Including Reinsurance)

Speciality Finance (Credit Cards, Leasing, Financial Guarantors)

Exchanges

Property

The financial sector is an important part of global markets:

Page 4: Approaching Global Financials

4

Approaching global financials

Strategy

Fundamentally-based long term capital growth through investment in the Financials sector; guided by combination top driven/bottom up stock analysis

Objective

Identify sub-sector fundamental themes and exploit them through investments in companies with prices that do not reflect longer-term trends

Be opportunistic and effective with capital by dynamically allocating it across multiple sub-sectors, capitalisations, growth/value categories and geographies

Liquid strategy with active management

Goal

Generate meaningful returns in any market conditions

Avoid “disasters”

Page 5: Approaching Global Financials

5

Filtering and Portfolio Construction

Universe

Europe USUK Japan Asia Emerging markets

Best 15 – 20 themes chosen

Potential stock opportunities (within 15- 20 themes)

Detailed fundamental company analysis

Portfolio Active Management

“All of our ideas start with a view that a significant industry or company change, not yet being fully recognised by the market,

is imminent or in progress”

Risk Management

(15-20 themes/70-100 names)

Page 6: Approaching Global Financials

6Source: IMF, OECD, Datastream, Credit Suisse research.

Opportunities – credit growthHousehold debt/GDP versus GDP per capita;

underleveraged countries in terms of consumer debt are circled

UKUS

Japan

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

MalaysiaSingapore

Taiwan

Netherlands

Denmark

Germany

Portugal

SwedenIreland

Spain

Finland

BelgiumFrance

Greece

Italy

HungaryCzech RepublicPoland

S. Africa

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

GDP per capita (US$)

Hou

seho

lds

debt

/GD

P (%

)

Canada

Household leverage is low in many countries

Page 7: Approaching Global Financials

7Source: IMF, OECD, Datastream, Credit Suisse research.

S. AfricaTaiwan

S. Korea

Portugal

Russia

PolandHungary

Czech Rep.Greece

New Zealand

Spain

Hong Kong

Singapore

Italy

Australia

Germany

Japan

France

UKBelgium

Finland

CanadaAustria

NetherlandsSweden

US

Denmark

Switzerland

Norway

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

GDP per capita, US$ '000s

Life

pre

miu

ms,

% o

f GD

P

Life insurance product penetration and GDP per capita

Life company penetration is low in many countries

Opportunities – insurance penetration

Page 8: Approaching Global Financials

8

Exploiting the growing global savings pool

Global private wealth

Number of high net worth individuals and value of their wealth

HNWI (millions)

Value of wealth ($ trillion)

Value of wealth (% change y-o-y)

1997 5.2 19.1 -------

1998 5.9 21.6 13.1

1999 7.0 25.5 18.1

2000 7.2 27.0 5.9

2001 7.1 26.2 -3.0

2002 7.3 26.7 1.9

2003 7.7 28.5 6.7

2004 8.2 30.7 7.7

2005 8.7 33.3 8.5

Source: IFSL, based on data from Merrill Lynch Capgemini

Page 9: Approaching Global Financials

9Source: Thomson Financial.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000E

nerg

y an

dP

ower

Fin

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ls

Rea

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ate

Med

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ndE

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ms

Hea

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re

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ls

Hig

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olog

y

Ret

ail

Con

sum

erS

tapl

es

Con

s. P

rods

.&

Svc

s.

Va

lue

US

$ m

illio

ns 2005 2006

Global announced M&A deals – financials consistently active

Mergers and acquisitions

Page 10: Approaching Global Financials

10

Europe ex UK sector concentration: top 5 companies as % of total sector market cap

Source: Credit Suisse.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%C

ap G

ood

s

Ma

teri

als

Ban

ks

Ma

chin

ery

Rea

l Est

ate

Hea

lth C

are

Me

dia

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nsp

ort

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leco

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Util

itie

s

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ce

Con

str

& E

ng

in

Che

mic

als

Con

sum

Du

r &

App

ar

Aut

os

& C

om

po

n

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& M

inin

g

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od B

ev

& T

oba

cco

Con

sum

er

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v

Com

me

r S

erv

& S

up

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rgy

Div

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anc

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twa

re &

Se

rv

Fo

od &

Sta

pl R

et

Ret

aili

ng

Pha

rmac

& B

iote

ch

Te

ch H

ard

w &

Eq

uip

Sector consolidation

Page 11: Approaching Global Financials

11

Playing sub-sector themes

Trend Long Avoid

2002 Market outlook uncertain Money brokers US market sensitive stocks

Lloyds of London Asset managers

European property Investment banks

2003 Market consolidation Investment banks Insurance

Low interest rates Asset managers Online brokers

High liquidity Irish and UK property Insurance brokers

2004 Stronger equity markets Investment banks US insurance

Surge property valuation outside G7 Private banking US asset managers

Low interest rates Eastern European property UK domestic banks

2005 Market sentiment positive Asset managers UK domestic banks

M&A activity increasing Emerging markets Insurance brokers

Low inflation Japanese Brokers Large Cap US regional banks

2006 Market sentiment positive Investment banks Canadian regional banks

M&A activity Asset managers US regional banks

Liquidity Emerging markets Insurance brokerage

Global growth Diversified financials US regional banks

2007 Re-pricing of risk Asset managers Spanish domestic

Low inflation Emerging markets UK banks

Page 12: Approaching Global Financials

12

National Bank of Greece – share price

Source: Bloomberg, USD, 30/12/2002-21/09/2007.

Source: Bloomberg, USD, 30/12/2002-21/09/2007.

Case studies

National Bank of Greece

Ranked 27th amongst the strongest banking groups in Europe (at 06.07.2007)

Core profit comes from South East Europe

Expectations for dynamic growth

Turkiye Garanti

Third largest private bank in Turkey

GE Capital owns 26% stake

Finances 16% of Turkey’s exports and 14% of its imports

Turkiye Garanti – share price

Page 13: Approaching Global Financials

13

Shenzhen Investment – share price

Source: Bloomberg, USD, 30/12/2002-21/09/2007.

Source: Bloomberg, USD, 30/12/2002-21/09/2007.

Case studies

Shenzhen Investment

A mid-market property developer in southern China

45.7%-owned by Shenzhen's city government

H1 2007 net profit rose sharply on property revaluation gains

Citigroup

The world’s largest company*

Global, diversified financial services business model

Restructuring measures announced H1 2007

Citigroup – share price

* Source: Forbes Global 2000, March 2007. Ranking is based on a mix of four metrics: sales, profit, assets and market value.

Page 14: Approaching Global Financials

14

Northern Rock – share price

Source: Bloomberg, USD, 30/12/2002-21/09/2007.

Case studies

Northern Rock

5th largest UK mortgage lender

Business model depends on funding from wholesale credit markets

September 2007 - sought emergency funding from Bank of England

Page 15: Approaching Global Financials

15

Global - greater opportunities and diversification

Global financial services are an attractive and diversified asset class

Current environment is positive:

- Global growth, driven by BRIC countries (represented 26% of Global GDP in 2006 and this is expected to rise)

- Low inflation, low interest rate environment provides supportive conditions

- Global liquidity and strong M&A activity driving capital markets

- Significant private equity capital raised in 2006 alone

- Increasing consumer activity in both loans and savings

Summary

Page 16: Approaching Global Financials

16

Appendix

Page 17: Approaching Global Financials

17

Fund Manager Profile: Guy de Blonay

Director with 11 years’ investment experience

Manager of the CC&L Global Financials Fund since launch in May 2006

Manager of the New Star Financials Hedge Fund since launch in April 2002

Manager of the New Star Global Financials Fund (OEIC), top specialist financialfund since inception*

Formerly at Jupiter Asset Management Ltd, 1995-2001

Stephen WhittakerUK team of 9

Mark BealeUS team of 2

Richard PeaseEuropean team of 10

Brian CoffeyEmerging markets team of 5

Chris BurlingJapan team of 3

Ian BeattieAsia team of 3

“…more ideas are generated by a team but decisions are best left to the individual…”

Leverage off the New Star network for real-time information sharing and security analysis:

Nick BrindPan-European financials specialist

Emily AddersonFinancials Analyst

Mick GrovesTrader for Pan-European markets

Mark HurleyTrader for US and Asia (incl. Japan)

Team:

**

* Source: Lipper Hindsight at 31.08.07 since launch (28.12.01), performance based on financial peer group comprising financial funds held within the IMA Specialist Sector. ** Source: Citywire at 31.08.07 Fund Manager ratings are based on assessing individual fund managers outperformance against appropriate benchmarks over a period of 36 months.

Page 18: Approaching Global Financials

18

Important information

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The value of investments may also increase or decrease as a result of changes in exchange rates between currencies. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the fund manager at the time of print and should not be interpreted as investment advice.

The New Star Global Financials Fund (formerly the WorldInvest Management Fund) (the "Fund") opened to retail investment on 19 May 2003. Performance history for the Fund includes that of the WorldInvest Management Fund which was launched on 28 December 2001.The Fund invests in a specialist sector, which may be less liquid and produce more volatile performance than an investment in a spread of investment sectors.

This presentation is for professional investors, professional advisers and other financial institutions only and should not be provided to or relied upon by private investors. This presentation should not be distributed to any third parties. The Fund should be viewed as an investment suitable only for investors who can fully evaluate and bear the risks involved. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Distribution of this document and the offering of shares in certain jurisdictions may be restricted and accordingly persons into whose possession this document comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. If this is the case, this Fund cannot be the subject of active marketing in your jurisdiction.

The Fund is registered for sale in the UK, France, Spain, Italy and Singapore (recognised).

Full details of the Fund can be found in the prospectus. Any decisions should be made solely on the basis of the relevant documents, which are available on request from New Star. The Simplified Prospectus is also available upon request.

The shares referred to in this document have not been and will not be registered under any United States securities laws, and except in a transaction that does not violate the United States securities laws, may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States of America, or any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction, or to or for the benefit of a United States person.

New Star Investment Funds Limited is the ACD for the Fund, and the Investment Manager is New Star Asset Management Limited. Both firms are authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority.

New Star Investment Funds is the trading name of New Star Investment Funds Limited, part of the New Star Marketing Group. New Star Investment Funds is not authorised to give investment advice and only provides information on the New Star Group’s products.

Issued by New Star Investment Funds Limited.