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December 6, 2019
ARC Modeling Activities(Past, Present & Future)
Model User Group
PAST
Background
• ARC Activity-Based Model – Current Distribution
– 20-County model
– 20-County Population Synthesizer with Microsoft SQL
– Model calibration/validation for 2015
• GDOT traffic counts (daily/hourly)
• I-85 HOT lane transaction data
• Speed data from various sources
• Re-expansion of HHTS/TOBS to 2015
Background
• ARC Modeling Activities as of 2019 Q1
– Official forecasts
• TARP (2016) → 20-county model
– RTP forecasts
– Conformity determination
• TIP Amendment runs → 20-county model
– The latest version: #7 (2019)
– Forecasting years: 2020, 2030 and 2040
– “Special” studies
PRESENT
Background
• ABM Peer Review in 2017
– Long-term/short-term recommendations
• Population Synthesizer Webinar (December 2017)
– MySQL version with 21 Counties
– Full contents covered
– The program shared
– MS-SQL version of PopSyn: Retired
Peer Review Addressed Recommendations
• Lower value-of-time for passenger cars
• Connection between PopSyn-generated workers and ARC
employment forecasts
• Incorporation of school enrollment data
• Sensitivity testing
• Work-from-Home model
Major Model Updates To Date
• Peer Review Short-term Recommendations
• 21 Counties
• External Model Update
• Model Sensitivity Testing
• Updated Socioeconomic Data (“Series 16”)
• Online Documentation: Finalize conversion to online format in GitHub
• Model Enhancement and Validation
Expanded Modeling Area (so far)
• 21 Counties
External Model Update
• External model components
– Work vs. Non-Work IE/EI shares
– IE/EI vs. EE shares
– EE desire lines
– Trip generation
– Trip distribution
– Time of day
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
IE Work IE Non-Work EE Total
External Passenger Cars by Trip Type
AirSage Updated
External Model Update (cont’d)
• Trip distribution results substantially improved when compared
to observed data
Purpose Facility Observed ModelPercent
Difference
Coincidence
Ratio
Work Interstate 41.76 42.49 2% 0.86
WorkNon-
Interstate39.68 40.88 3% 0.91
Non-Work Interstate 36.54 36.79 1% 0.83
Non-WorkNon-
Interstate36.37 36.74 1% 0.91
Population Synthesizer
• Population Synthesizer– Connection between PopSyn
workers and ARC employment forecasts
– Modified the population / household control priorities to improve future population synthesis• Ensure that number of synthesized
households match control totals for all TAZs
• Ensure that total number of workers is 0.95 of the total employment forecast
School Data
• Augment private school data for school location choice– ARC staff prepared private
school enrollment data at TAZ level
– Private school enrollment is approximately 7% of total enrollment (77,000 students)
– Helps with the prediction of school trip destinations
Model Sensitivity Testing
• Including the Base
Model, 10 scenarios
were analyzed
Highway Capacity
• ½ capacity
• 2x capacity
Transit Fares
• No fares
• ½ fares
• 2x base fares
Fuel Costs
• ½ fuel costs
• 2x fuel costs
Transit In-Vehicle Time
• 0.95x IVT
• 1.05x IVT
Base Model
Work-from-Home Choice
• Add a sub-model to predict whether the usual workplace location is at home– Working home occasionally (i.e., tele-
commuting) is captured in the Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern model
– When “home” is the work location, no commute trip is generated
– Approximately 6% of workers report that home is their usual workplace (ACS 2015)
Usual Workplace
Choice
Work from Home
Work Out of Home
TAZ 2TAZ 1
Modified CT-RAMP Process
Changes in Main Script
• New internal and external zone specifications
• New value of time (autos)
• Updated vehicle operating costs (autos & trucks)
• Updated fuel costs (autos & trucks)
• Convergence criterion in highway assignment (relative
gap = 0.0001)
• A new module for performance measures in addition to
traditional aggregate summary
EA(XCPU
EA)
AM(XCPUAM)
MD(XCPUMD)
PM(XCPUPM)
EV(XCPU
EV)
DistributeMultistep (XCPU)
DistributeIntrastep
EA(XCPU)
AM(XCPU)
MD(XCPU)
PM(XCPU)
EV(XCPU)
DistributeIntrastep
MultiThread (XCPU)
Changes in Main Script (Cont’d)Parallel Assignments (Cube 6.4.3) Sequential Assignments (Cube 6.4.5)
Model Enhancement and Validation
• Good matches to daily counts
Volume Group Observations RMSE %RMSE Total Volume Total CountsVol / Cnt
Ratio< 2500 3,283 1,421 117.0% 4,979,000 3,981,000 1.25
2500 - 4999 2,109 2,105 57.0% 7,967,000 7,736,000 1.03
5000 - 9999 2,681 3,161 44.0% 18,710,000 19,120,000 0.98
10000 - 24999 2,300 4,891 32.0% 31,083,000 35,163,000 0.88
25000 - 49999 365 7,918 23.0% 11,715,000 12,389,000 0.95
50000 - 74999 172 10,202 16.0% 10,421,000 10,913,000 0.95
75000 - 99999 103 10,373 12.0% 8,506,000 8,793,000 0.97
>= 100000 104 10,697 9.0% 12,705,000 12,806,000 0.99
Total 11,117 3,812 38.0% 106,086,000 110,901,000 0.96
ARC 2015 HIGHWAY VALIDATION SUMMARIES
Model Enhancement and Validation
• VMT - good overall match for minor arterial and above
FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION
GDOT 2015
(AWDT)MODEL 2015
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE
Inters tate 57,399,000 54,422,000 -5.2%
Principa l Arteria l 27,417,000 26,377,000 -3.8%
Minor Arteria l 34,652,000 34,277,000 -1.1%
Col lector 12,960,000 11,242,000 -13.3%
Local 48,488,000 11,341,000 -76.6%
Tota l 180,916,000 137,659,000 -23.9%
Arteria l and Above 119,468,000 115,076,000 -3.7%
Col lector and Above 132,428,000 126,318,000 -4.6%
Model Enhancement and Validation
• Transit assignment
– Improvements in MARTA rail
– Better match with MARTA buses
and GRTA express buses
– Improvements in CCT and GCT
– Overall regional total very close
Operator / Mode Observed Modeled Difference % Difference
MARTA Rail 230,940 247,040 16,100 7%
MARTA Bus 201,370 184,100 -17,270 -9%
GRTA 6,370 5,440 -930 -15%
CCT 11,660 15,960 4,300 37%
GCT 6,430 7,900 1,470 23%
HAT 570 1,530 960 168%
CATS 120 130 10 8%
Shuttles 46,300 41,090 -5,210 -11%
Total 503,760 503,190 -570 0%
Model Enhancement and Validation• MARTA rail – good overall match
Model Enhancement and Validation• MARTA buses – better R-squared
Online Documentation
• GitHub platform
• HTML version
– Specifications
– User Guide
– Calibration
FUTURE(Potential Implementation)
Major Research Activities to Date
• Emerging technology
– TNC (Uber, Lyft, etc.)
– Automated Vehicle
• Segmented value-of-time (VOTs)
• ActivitySim assessment and preliminary conversion
Emerging Technology (AV)
• Focus: market penetration level, empty VMT
• Segmentation between AV and Non-AV adopters
– Car ownership model
– Dictates trips by AV adopters and by shared AVs
• Mode choice
– Additional modes: Shared AVs and TNCs
• AV routing and ZOV trips
– AV adopters and Shared AVs (TNCs)
– Challenging optimization problem with constraints
Emerging Technology (AV)
• Separation between CVs
and AVs from COM
• Traffic assignment of AVs
as a separate user class
– Higher capacity and
specific VDFs for AVs
• Partial penetration
effects
Emerging Technology (TNC)
• Addition of a TNC mode to the model
– Mode choice, accessibility
• Chicago TNC data
– Covers TNC trips that either begin or end in the city limits
– Weekdays (Mon-Thur) vs. Weekends (Fri-Sun)
• Cost/mile split by hour and by geographic area
– Peak hours, CBD, airport
• Targets for TNC shares
VOT Segmentation
• Segmentation
• Segment generalized costs for highway assignment
• “Many more” classes in highway assignment
Income Group Income VOT
Low < $20k 5.60$
Medium low $20k to $50k 10.11$
Medium high $50k to $100k 19.16$
High > $100k 40.56$
ActivitySim
• Transition from the Java-based CT-RAMP platform
• Anaconda Conda platform
– Python data science packages
– NumPy, Pandas, and potential visualization packages
(Matplotlib, Seaborn)
• Potential benefits
– Efficiency, Stability, Compatibility, Expandability, Maintenance
Model Release
Previously Released (FG mtg, 6/14/19)
• “DRAFT” 2015 Model
– A draft version of 2015 socioeconomic data
– Informative purpose
– NOT to be used for projects
• Model Specifications Report
• Download
– http://abmfiles.atlantaregional.com/
– Base15FG_DRAFT.zip
Final Release
• Final version of the model to be released “soon”
– TARP2020 process
– January-February 2020
– Forecasting years: 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 & 2050
• Online Documentation
Contact
Kyeil Kim
Atlanta Regional Commission
(470) 378-1567
