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ANALYSIS
Are electric cars ready to break out?
Mainstream releases still face many roadblocks By MIE SAKAMOTOKyodo News
The nascent electric vehicle market marked an important step
forward when Nissan Motor Co. announced Friday it will roll
out its Leaf car Dec. 20, but zero-emission cars have to
overcome many hurdles before they become widespread.
"We believe this will be the beginning of the new era for the
world's automobile industry, as well as a sustainable low-
carbon society," Nissan Chief Operating Officer Toshiyuki
Shiga said.
Shiga emphasized that the Leaf has gotten off to a good start,
with 6,000 already on order — Nissan's initial sales target for
the 2010 business year.
Nissan has also received orders in the United States for
another 20,000, but the automaker stopped accepting more
orders because of limited production, Shiga said.
The Leaf's launch follows the release last year of the four-seat
i-MiEV by Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Subaru Plug-in Stella
electric car by Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd.
Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. have announced
they will release electric vehicles in 2012.
Because electric vehicles have simpler structures and consist
of fewer components than their gasoline-powered brethren,
enterprises like local governments and universities are
developing their own versions, which could help them gain
wider acceptance.
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To expand sales channels, Mitsubishi Motors recently
announced it will market and promote sales of the i-MiEV at
electronics retail stores.
Both Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors envision that electric
vehicles in the future will be used for more than gettingaround. For example, they might be used to store renewable
energy such as solar power that would be used to power a
home's electronic appliances.
"In that sense, EVs have big potential," said Shigeru
Matsumura, an auto analyst at SMBC Friend Research Center.
"But it will take 10 to 20 years to get to that stage."
Matsumura said he expects it will be a while before EVs
become profitable for automakers due to their high price andthe lack of infrastructure for recharging them.
Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors have already engaged in price
competition, as the i-MiEV was reduced to ¥3.98 million, a cut
of ¥619,000, in March after Nissan announced it was selling
the Leaf for ¥3.76 million.
But the prices are still much higher than for gasoline vehicles,
though government subsidies for EVs will bring down the
actual price of the Leaf to ¥2.98 million and the i-MiEV to
¥2.84 million.
When it comes to power, it takes somewhere between five and
14 hours to fully charge an electric vehicle with a household
hookup.
In addition, they are currently capable of only 160 to 200 km
per charge, about one-third to one-fourth the distance of a
gasoline-powered car on a full tank.
Toyota and Honda, which place hybrids as their mainstay
environmentally friendly vehicles, share the view it will
require time for EVs to build a strong presence in the auto
market.
Honda President Takanobu Ito indicated during a recent
interview that gasoline and hybrid vehicles will continue as the
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mainstay vehicles for the time being.
Toyota Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada has
expressed a similar view.
"EVs will spread first for short-range runs," Uchiyamada tolda news conference recently, signaling Toyota plans to offer
hybrid and fuel-cell cars as environmentally friendly vehicles
for long-range runs. "We do not expect a fast spread of EVs."
Matsumura of SMBC Friend Research Center said the EV
market is unlikely to flourish unless Toyota and Honda fully
join the market and create more competition.
"Japan's big three all need to join to develop the market. This
is the likely scenario which will bring down high EV pricesand help EVs become more common," he said.
Leaf in U.S. on Dec. 11
NEW YORK (Kyodo) Nissan Motor Co. will start selling the
Leaf in the United States next Saturday, marking the first
delivery anywhere of its maiden mass-produced electric
vehicle, company officials said.
The automaker will hold a release ceremony in San Francisco.
General Motors Co. also plans to start selling its first all-
electric model in the U.S. market this month, offering the first
Chevrolet Volt in a public online auction with the winner
expected to be announced Dec. 16.
According to the U.S. Environment Protection Agency, the
fuel-efficiency of the Leaf is estimated at the equivalent of 99
miles per gallon (around 42 km per liter), about twice as
efficient as Toyota Motor Corp.'s Prius hybrid model.
Its driving range per charge under the EPA authorization is
about 117 km, compared with the 160 km claimed by Nissan.
The car is powered by lithium-ion batteries.
The Japan Times: Saturday, Dec. 4, 2010
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