ASEAN Diversity, Business Cycle Synchronization, and Monetary Coordination: Insights from a

VAR/VECM Model of Three ASEAN Member States

Dr. Ruperto Majuca and Neriza Casas

Philippine Economic Society Annual Meeting

November 2014 (Makati, Philippines)

Outline

Research Questions and Methodology Vector Autoregression (VAR) Results Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Results Policy Implications

Table of Contents

Research Questions and Methodology

Vector Autoregression (VAR) Results Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Results Policy Implications

Research Questions and Methodology, 1

Optimal amount of monetary and exchange rate coordination among ASEAN member economies (AMS), depends, among others, on whether economic shocks are country-specific or common, as well as on the heterogeneity of macroeconomics dynamics, and in monetary and exchange rate regimes

Are the ASEAN economic shocks country-specific or common?

Research Questions and Methodology, 2

Vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction model (VECM) models were estimated to analyze the diversity and commonalities of three “representative” ASEAN member states (AMS).

VAR mainly for commonalities, and VECM (along with descriptive data) for diversity

Singapore for developed country, Philippines for ASEAN5, and Vietnam for CLMV

Table of Contents

Research Questions and Methodology

Vector Autoregression (VAR) Results

Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Results Policy Implications

Vector Autoregression (VAR)

VAR containing real GDP growth of: ROW (Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway,

Sweden, Switzerland, UK, US, Korea, Mexico, South Africa, and Taiwan)

ASEAN6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam)

AMS

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Singapore), 1

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Singapore), 2

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Singapore), 3

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Singapore), 4

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Singapore), 5

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Philippines), 1

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Philippines), 2

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Vietnam), 1

VAR (ROW, ASEAN, Vietnam), 2

Table of Contents

Research Questions and Methodology Vector Autoregression (VAR) Results

Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Results

Policy Implications

Data and Methodology

We use Quarterly data: of Singapore, Philippines, and Vietnam Gross Domestic Product (GDP), M1

Money Supply (LMB), Key Policy Rate (FUND), Treasury Bill Rates (tbill), CPI (Cpiinf) and M2 (m2sareal), money market rate (mmr)

From International Monetary Fund, Thomsom Reuters, and Bloomberg

Impulse Response Function

Singapore (to Interest Rate)

Impulse Response Function

Philippines (to Interest Rate)

Impulse Response Function

Viet Nam (to Interest Rate)

Table of Contents

Research Questions and Methodology Vector Autoregression (VAR) Results Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Results

Policy Implications

Policy Implications, 1

On the one hand, intrinsic differences among the characteristics of the individual ASEAN economies pose a challenge for regional macroeconomic coordination (e.g. VECM evidence)

Policy Implications, 2

On the other hand, the VAR findings also highlight the need for a strong coordinated macroeconomic monitoring in the ASEAN region to ensure that AMSs maintain robust macroeconomic conditions, as well as the importance of coordinated efforts to strengthen prudential regulation in the region. At the same time, it is also important to have a buffer and support mechanism in case of negative shocks

Policy Implications, 3

There is a possible scope for closer macroeconomic policy coordination within the ASEAN region.

As Kawai (2005) argued, common threats can be addressed through collective action, and spillovers and externalities that come about because of the interconnectedness of the economics can be internalized through macroeconomic policy coordination.

Policy Implications, 4

Current system is not sufficient. To support deeper integration, the region should have an institutionalized mechanism to coordinate the monetary, exchange rate and fiscal policies among member states. To achieve this, stronger political will is required.

Policy Implications, 5

In the long-term, one could envision a system where the member states give up some of their independence and in exchange, earn a vote in the regional decision making process for decision.