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Attribution of Haze Phase Attribution of Haze Phase 2 and Technical Support 2 and Technical Support
SystemSystemProject UpdateProject Update
AoH Meeting – San Francisco, CAAoH Meeting – San Francisco, CASeptember 14/15, 2005September 14/15, 2005
Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.
OverviewOverview
AoH Phase 2/TSS work plan AoH Phase 2/TSS work plan http://wrapair.org/forums/aoh/meetings/050817c/AoH_PhaseII_Work_plan_drafhttp://wrapair.org/forums/aoh/meetings/050817c/AoH_PhaseII_Work_plan_draft_081705.pdft_081705.pdf
Review of data summary products and Review of data summary products and suggested modifications for Phase 2suggested modifications for Phase 2
IWG input from August meetingIWG input from August meeting TSS scoping studyTSS scoping study Weight of evidence approachWeight of evidence approach Critical milestonesCritical milestones
Goals of the AoH Phase 2 Goals of the AoH Phase 2 AnalysisAnalysis
Refine Phase 1 techniques for use in Phase 2.Refine Phase 1 techniques for use in Phase 2. Reduce uncertainty and address the remaining Reduce uncertainty and address the remaining
uncertainty in modeled data and attribution uncertainty in modeled data and attribution results.results.
Analyze the differences between modeled Analyze the differences between modeled results for 2002 and the projected 2018 base results for 2002 and the projected 2018 base case and various other control strategy case and various other control strategy scenarios.scenarios.
Develop additional analytical approaches (e.g., Develop additional analytical approaches (e.g., receptor modeling, trends analysis, receptor modeling, trends analysis, determination of the representativeness of determination of the representativeness of baseline data set).baseline data set).
Goals of the AoH Phase 2 TSS Goals of the AoH Phase 2 TSS ProjectProject
Provide a single web-based location for access and Provide a single web-based location for access and display of technical data, display of analytical display of technical data, display of analytical results, and the reference location for related results, and the reference location for related documentation to support the regional haze documentation to support the regional haze implementation plans.implementation plans.
Provide specific analysis tools to synthesize Provide specific analysis tools to synthesize technical and contextual data and GIS layers, technical and contextual data and GIS layers, conduct analyses, and store results for conduct analyses, and store results for subregional/local/Class I area-specific regional subregional/local/Class I area-specific regional haze planning.haze planning.
Provide the analysis and display tools for Phase 2 Provide the analysis and display tools for Phase 2 analyses, and the technical support documentation analyses, and the technical support documentation for WRAP region SIPs and TIPs for regional haze.for WRAP region SIPs and TIPs for regional haze.
Team Members and Team Members and ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities
Team Member Primary Contacts Responsibilities ARS Joe Adlhoch Analysis lead, responsible for compilation and
interpretation of attribution and related results and communication with AoH and Implementation work groups
CIRA Shawn McClure Rodger Ames
Design/development lead and hosting; acquire appropriate data sets; use other team members for development support as appropriate (funded under separate contract)
ENVIRON Gerry Mansell Ralph Morris
Emissions inventory development and modeling results (predominantly funded under separate contract) Transfer of emissions, modeling, and attribution data to CIRA; development support for GIS applications as required
Image Matters Jeff Ehman John Davidson
Architectural/technical design; metadata template and catalog development; data discovery, viewing, and access capability - design and implementation; interoperability standards and specifications; GIS application support as required; documentation
AoH Work Group Provide oversight and review of web site development and products
Work Plan Tasks – Analysis Work Plan Tasks – Analysis ProjectProject
Task 1: Solicit and define user requirements Task 1: Solicit and define user requirements from the appropriate WRAP work groups.from the appropriate WRAP work groups.
Task 2: Prepare suite of data products based Task 2: Prepare suite of data products based on final 2002 emissions, modeling, and on final 2002 emissions, modeling, and attribution results.attribution results.
Task 3: Define the weight of evidence (WOE) Task 3: Define the weight of evidence (WOE) approach to be applied to AoH Phase 2 data.approach to be applied to AoH Phase 2 data.
Task 4: Interpret 2018 results and implications Task 4: Interpret 2018 results and implications for showing progress under the Regional Haze for showing progress under the Regional Haze Rule.Rule.
Task 5: Prepare draft and final AoH Phase 2 Task 5: Prepare draft and final AoH Phase 2 analysis report.analysis report.
(Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports (Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.)and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.)
Work Plan Tasks – TSS ProjectWork Plan Tasks – TSS Project
Task 6: Perform TSS requirements analysis and Task 6: Perform TSS requirements analysis and scoping study.scoping study.
Task 7a: Acquire and prepare the relevant Task 7a: Acquire and prepare the relevant databases. databases.
Task 7b: Summarize and evaluate WRAP Dust Task 7b: Summarize and evaluate WRAP Dust inventory.inventory.
Task 8: Develop data review interfaces based on Task 8: Develop data review interfaces based on user requirements. user requirements.
Task 9: Develop data exchange protocols and Task 9: Develop data exchange protocols and guidelines. guidelines.
Task 10: Develop method to capture on-line user Task 10: Develop method to capture on-line user feedback.feedback.
Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.
Project Timing by TaskProject Timing by Task
AoH Phase 2 Analysis TSS Development Travel
Task(s) Task(s) Task Month
1 2 3 4 5 6 7a,b 8 9 10 11 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006
TSS Data Summary TSS Data Summary ProductsProducts
Emissions, monitoring, modeling, and attribution Emissions, monitoring, modeling, and attribution results will be housed in on-line databasesresults will be housed in on-line databases
User requests will combine data with contextual User requests will combine data with contextual information and/or GIS layers (if appropriate)information and/or GIS layers (if appropriate)
ARS and AoH work group will develop a Weight of ARS and AoH work group will develop a Weight of Evidence (WOE) approach for integrating resultsEvidence (WOE) approach for integrating results
Scoping study (Task 6) will determine the level of Scoping study (Task 6) will determine the level of sophistication achievable for data products during sophistication achievable for data products during projectproject
All data used for 2007 SIPS/TIPS will be All data used for 2007 SIPS/TIPS will be version controlled to keep it separate from version controlled to keep it separate from new data and information added to the TSS new data and information added to the TSS over timeover time
DraftDraft TSS Home Page TSS Home Page
Emissions DataEmissions Data
Use EDMS as data Use EDMS as data sourcesource
Summary of emissions Summary of emissions data will be available data will be available by source type, point, by source type, point, county, and grid cellcounty, and grid cell
Provide summaries of Provide summaries of projected changes in projected changes in emissions from 2002 to emissions from 2002 to 20182018
Include GIS Include GIS informationinformation
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOX)
4,479 thousand tons/yr
Point
Area
On-Road Mobile
Off-Road Mobile
Rx Fires
Ag Fires
Off-Shore
Windblown Dust
Road Dust
Wildland Fire
Biogenics
Animals/Soils NH3
Sulfer Dioxide (SO2)
1,326 thousand tons/yr
Volatile Organic Carbon (VOC) 17,288 thousand tons/yr
Ammonia (NH3)
1,938 thousand tons/yr
Fine Particulates (PM2.5)
2,345 thousand tons/yrCoarse Particulates (PMC)
3,524 thousand tons/yr
Monitoring/Modeling DataMonitoring/Modeling Data
Display visibility Display visibility based on monitoring based on monitoring or modeling results or modeling results
Include RHR and other Include RHR and other monitoring data setsmonitoring data sets
Tie in 2000-2004 Tie in 2000-2004 baseline and glide baseline and glide path results path results
Include GIS Include GIS informationinformation
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathGreat Smoky Mountains NP (TN) - 20% Worst Days
28.9427.77
24.86
21.94
19.02
16.11
13.19
11.44
25.2323.76
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2054 2059 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1B Prediction
Attribution DataAttribution Data
Attribution results will Attribution results will include: PSAT, TRA, PMFinclude: PSAT, TRA, PMF
Integrate results with EIsIntegrate results with EIs Provide more results with Provide more results with
map products than in map products than in Phase 1Phase 1
Review attribution Review attribution groupingsgroupings
TSSA SulfateC ontribution by
"O ther"
10%
40%
70%
TSSA Sulfate C ontributionA ttributed to the "O ther"(non-Point, non-M obile)Source C ategory 1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1617
18
1920
Supporting DataSupporting Data
Assess what Assess what supporting data is supporting data is needed for SIP/TIP needed for SIP/TIP preparation and WOEpreparation and WOE
Regional assessments Regional assessments included in Phase 1?included in Phase 1?
Back trajectory Back trajectory summaries?summaries?
Integrate with GIS Integrate with GIS data?data?
Links to data web sitesLinks to data web sites
New Data Summary New Data Summary ProductsProducts
Presentation of control strategies – may be descriptive Presentation of control strategies – may be descriptive text with bar charts showing anticipated reductionstext with bar charts showing anticipated reductions
Projected 2018 emissions, visibility, modeling, and Projected 2018 emissions, visibility, modeling, and attribution results – will be able display just like 2002 attribution results – will be able display just like 2002 results; will also include display of 2002-2018 changesresults; will also include display of 2002-2018 changes
Historical trend and future glide slope analyses – may Historical trend and future glide slope analyses – may include multiple data sets (RHR, “raw”) and extinction include multiple data sets (RHR, “raw”) and extinction equations (current and proposed) – both VIEWS and equations (current and proposed) – both VIEWS and COHA projects working on versions of these productsCOHA projects working on versions of these products
Weight of evidence approachWeight of evidence approach Ability for users to add data/GIS layers/analyses to Ability for users to add data/GIS layers/analyses to
TSSTSS
IWG SIP IWG SIP OutlineOutline
SIP Cover #1 SIP Submittal Letter (required) SIP Submittal letter enclosure (Authorizing statutes) (optional) SIP Completeness Checklist (required) Executive Summary (Optional) SIP Cover #2 1. Regional Haze Background
1.1. What is Visibility Impairment (optional) 1.2. State description (Class I Areas list/maps) (optional) 1.3. Visibility History (optional) 1.4. Existing Visibility Protection in State (optional)
1.4.1. Monitoring Strategy 1.5. Federal Land Manager Consultation (required)
[Note: Refer to Appendices for contact letter & notice of SIP Hearing] 1.6. Collaboration with Tribes (strongly suggested/required if tribal source impacts CIA )
2. Regulatory Overview 2.1. Monitoring Strategy 2.2. Establishing Reasonable Progress Goals
2.2.1. Baseline Conditions 2.2.2. Natural Conditions 2.2.3. Glide path 2.2.4. Consideration/Consultation of RPG factors
2.2.4.1. Costs of compliance 2.2.4.2. Time necessary for compliance 2.2.4.3. Energy and non-air quality environmental impacts of compliance 2.2.4.4. Remaining useful life of any potentially affected sources
2.2.5. Consultation on RPG’s 2.2.6. Emissions reductions measures needed
2.3. Apportionment of Contribution by Pollutant and Predominant Sources 2.3.1. Contribution from Outside the State 2.3.2. Contribution from natural sources
2.4. Projected Emissions by Pollutant 2.5. Long Term Strategies
2.5.1. Enforcement (description of existing control strategies, authority) 2.6. Demonstration of Reasonable Progress
2.6.1. Weight of Evidence 2.6.2. Consultation
2.7. Periodic Review [NOTE: 5 year average of annual values]
3. National, regional and state-wide strategies 3.1.1. 2018 Baseline/Alternative Control Strategies 3.1.2. Mobile Sources 3.1.3. Enhanced Smoke Management Plans
4. Class I Area Analyses (to be used with Table __) 4.1. CIA #1
4.1.1. Analysis of chapter 2 requirements 4.2. CIA #2, etc
5. Class I Areas (and Tribal Class I Areas) Impacted by (my) State [NOTE: Same analysis as Chapter 3, but by percentage of apportionment]
Revised SIP outline Revised SIP outline developed at August developed at August 29-30 meeting29-30 meeting
Items in Items in redred are are directly supportable directly supportable by TSS and are by TSS and are required products of required products of TSSTSS
Each of these items Each of these items exists from Phase 1 or exists from Phase 1 or is planned for the TSSis planned for the TSS
IWG Flow Chart forIWG Flow Chart forUniform Rate of ProgressUniform Rate of Progress
2018 Baseline/Alternative Control Scenario Flowchart
Done
Uniform Rate of Progress Met?
2018 Baseline Scenario
Analyze 2018 Alternate Control
Scenarios
Uniform Rate of Progress met?
Justify why Uniform Rate of Progress not
met
NO
NO YES
YES
NO
TSS Scoping Study OutlineTSS Scoping Study Outline
Identify, understand, and refine the user/system Identify, understand, and refine the user/system requirementsrequirements Match products types with user needs (e.g., SIP outline)Match products types with user needs (e.g., SIP outline) Identify a set of case studies that illustrate the system’s Identify a set of case studies that illustrate the system’s
useuse Explore the architectural optionsExplore the architectural options
Select and evaluate a candidate architecture Select and evaluate a candidate architecture (feasibility, available expertise)(feasibility, available expertise)
Revisit system requirements – changes needed?Revisit system requirements – changes needed? Finalize selection: create set of documents and Finalize selection: create set of documents and
diagrams that describe system architecture, team diagrams that describe system architecture, team member rolesmember roles
Generate a detailed project planGenerate a detailed project plan What is feasible with available time/funds?What is feasible with available time/funds? What cannot be done at this time?What cannot be done at this time? Minimum requirement: Minimum requirement: MUSTMUST support SIP support SIP
preparationpreparation
TSS Scoping Study TSS Scoping Study ScheduleSchedule
Scoping study (task 6) must be Scoping study (task 6) must be completed before most of the completed before most of the remaining TSS tasks (7-10) can be remaining TSS tasks (7-10) can be startedstarted
Expected completion: November 2005Expected completion: November 2005 AoH work group will receive a detailed AoH work group will receive a detailed
update at November meetingupdate at November meeting
Weight of Evidence Weight of Evidence ApproachApproach
Recipe for assessment of reasonable progress:Recipe for assessment of reasonable progress: Comparison between 2000-04 baseline and 2018 base caseComparison between 2000-04 baseline and 2018 base case Review alternate methods of calculating 2000-04 baseline (exclude Review alternate methods of calculating 2000-04 baseline (exclude
fire, etc.?)fire, etc.?) Review of alternate 2018 control scenariosReview of alternate 2018 control scenarios Justification of why a site does or does not show reasonable Justification of why a site does or does not show reasonable
progressprogress Checklist containing each products type:Checklist containing each products type:
Succinct description of what information product displaysSuccinct description of what information product displays Relative uncertainty of each productRelative uncertainty of each product Relative importance or weight of each productRelative importance or weight of each product
Assessment of how well various analyses “agree”:Assessment of how well various analyses “agree”: Do all attribution methods tend toward similar results?Do all attribution methods tend toward similar results? Do EIs combined with back trajectory analyses support attribution Do EIs combined with back trajectory analyses support attribution
results?results? Do changes in EIs support reasonable rate of progress Do changes in EIs support reasonable rate of progress
demonstration?demonstration?
Prepare tutorial for users – several case studies which Prepare tutorial for users – several case studies which require somewhat different approachesrequire somewhat different approaches
Weight of Evidence Weight of Evidence Approach (Recap of Ralph’s Approach (Recap of Ralph’s
slide)slide) Glide paths and modeled RPG test (EPA)Glide paths and modeled RPG test (EPA) Eliminate days dominated by “natural” Eliminate days dominated by “natural”
events in modeled RPG test (e.g., fires, events in modeled RPG test (e.g., fires, dust)dust)
2018 projections for species dominated 2018 projections for species dominated by anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO4, by anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO4, NO3)NO3)
2018 projections for modeled worst 2018 projections for modeled worst visibility days, worst sulfate days, etc.visibility days, worst sulfate days, etc.
Other???Other???
Review of AoH Project Review of AoH Project ScheduleSchedule
Phase 2
Report