Bangkok Condominum Market Report Q4 2010 Year End

8/8/2019 Bangkok Condominum Market Report Q4 2010 Year End

1/17

2009 - 2010

Supply

lAuNCHES

pRICES

TAKE-up

Bangkok Condominiummarket rePort

THAIlANd

.ciers.c.th

Bangkok Condominium Market

ExECuTIvE SummARy

nw lchs Q4 2010 c s h bc c cc h sl

bl s b by vlps. ovll 2010 ps l

y h c wh v 60,000 s b lch l.

2011 s s h s y c lchs b s h xpc

spply bbbl s lly b v s vlps hs py cls h

s css. ths y wll ps v b csl.

dvlps v h bh b sbb B, wh sl b

b lch bh s. Sbb B sll s ly h wh ls

vlps h lw s h , hwv -ls vlps

h bc Q4 2010 wh y plys lch sll scl pjcs hs pv hlhy

cp h .

isss sp ccss ss s ss h h psv cs hs

ls s b lly lz cl b pbl w ls.

year end 2010 | Condominium

mARKET INdICAToRS


2/17

Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q4 2010

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2

nwly lch s h h q 2010 slhly cs

Q3 2010 by 2,500 s. appxly 20,000 s w lch

Q4 2010. my lchs w p hl h pss Q2

b w s Q3 h c ws Q4 2010. th

l b wly lch s 2010 ws ppxly 61,000,

ly 80% cs 2009.

Sc : Clls il thl rsch

NEwly lAuNCHEd CoNdomINIum uNITS duRINg THE yEAR 2009 Q4 2010 by QuARTER


3/17COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3


ZoNINg

HISToRICAl Supply by yEAR

CumulATIvE Supply IN bANgKoK


4/17

CITY AREA

th cvs jc b cp sb-s: h Shv

sc cps Shv r bw S 1 S 55 h

h S 2 S 38 h sh; h Cl Lp sc

cl Phl Ch r, r i r, S Ls, S Ss,

Chl r rch r, Why r rchps

r; h Sl / Sh sc; h rvs sc hChphy rv l Ch r Ch r,

wh svl v-s hls lc. th Cy a s cv

bsss, xps ss, bcs s pxy

y c bls, l lcl cs.

CITY FRINGE AREA

ths cvs h ps B:

o Nortern Fringe: ths sc cvs h BtS s

rchhw S m Ch S h h h mrt

s Pchb s Bs s h h.

o Soutern Fringe: ths sc cvs nhw rch r,Ch r, Shp r, Ch r r iii r

l h Chphy rv.

o Eastern Fringe: ths sc cvs h BtS s th

L S o n S h s, r iV r Pchb

r,

ths cvs lcs wh h w lcl sc

cv sp b q c hv ccss h

cl bsss s.

OUTER CITY AREA

th cvs w ps B:

o Outer City (East): ths sc ss h xs h BtS

o n S h B by h s.

o Outer City (West): ths sc ss h xs h BtS

ts S B W s whch cls h k thb r rchph r Pchs

sc.

SUBURBAN BANGKOK

ths h vs s h s ly . exps

h ss s sys s h cs

spply pcl . th xps o - n S

P s schl b cpl 2011. th xps h BtS

wll b cly h s cs, s wll csbly

c sp css . ths wll c h vlp

w cs hs . Sbb B pss h

bs h ppss hs p cls B cy lw (kh rs by ). ths lc hs

cphsv w pl cls sc bl hh, s

h c pjcs h .



i Q4 2010 h sbb B slhly p b B

wh h hh b s lch.

Wh b B, h es F hs shw h hhs

bs wh ppxly 3,500 s, ly 31% cs Q3.

th nh F c vy cls sc.

LPn dvlp Plc. lch h Lp P rvs r 3,

w vs c pjc r 3 h ShF wh l 2,405 s hs ws h ls pjc

hs q h y s whl.


NEwly lAuNCHEd CoNdomINIum uNITS IN Q4 2010 by loCATIoN


5/17

A COmpARISON OF NEWlY lAUNChEd UNITS BY lISTEd COmpANIES ANd NON lISTEd COmpANIES dURING Q1 2009 Q4 2010

NEwly lAuNCHEd CoNdomINIum uNITS IN CITy AREA, Q1 2009 Q4 2010



r : Ls cps cl sbss


i Q4 2010 ls cps sll sv p h ls sh wly

lch s, lhh h b wly lch s by

ls cps cs Q3 by ppxly 1,300 s

whl wly lch s by ls cps cs by

ly 2,400 s. th wly lch s by ls cps

hs q s h hhs h ps w ys. my sll

scp h hs p h by h ls vlps b lss

w vlps c pp h s h c

p.

m h 2,500 s w lch h Cy a Q3, b h

ls q 2010 js 400 s w lch. th l b

lchs h s hl h y ws c csqc h

pss whch b Fby 2010 b ws ch p apl

my. ths ly lchs Q3 2010.




nwly lch c s h nh F

clly cs h 4,300 s Q3 ppxly

3,300 s Q4.

oly ppxly 6,000 w c s w cpl

s h dp L Q4 2010 h l b

2010 ws ppxly 24,700 s, whch ps ll

2009 ly 15%. ths cl s fc h s h glbl

Fcl Css whch l vlps p pls hl hs s

w c h s w spply.


Sc : dp L, Clls il thl rsch

r : th b s s cl pjcs h nl Hs ahy

NEWlY lAUNChEd CONdOmINIUm UNITS IN NORThERN FRINGE AREA, Q1 2009 Q4 2010

SUpplY OF CONdOmINIUm UNITS 1994 - 2010


HISToRICAl Supply



Sc : dp L, Clls il thl rsch

ToTAl HISToRICAl Supply by loCATIoN To Q4 2010

a 66% l c s lc h sbb

B wh l h 190,000 s. Wh h b

B , h nh F cs h s s s

pxy h c, ss s ccs lvly lw

l pcs cp h Cy a.





appxly 770 s w Q4 2010 s l spply

hs 23,000 s. rhly 6,600 s

schl b cpl 2011.

appxly 2,600 s w Q4 2010, sc

js v 500 Q3. ths sll s h

c pjcs h , spclly Phhyh,

rchps, a Shs r. th nh F cs

sc b BtS mrt ss, h y pblc sp

s B.



AddITIoNAl Supply pER QuARTER | CITy AREA, Q1 2009 Q4 2010

AddITIONAl SUpplY pER QUARTER | NORThERN FRINGE AREA, Q1 2009 Q4 2010


9/17

CUmUlATIvE FUTURE SUpplY SChEdUlEd TO BE COmplETEd dURING ThE YEAR 2011 2013

BY lOCATION IN URBAN BANGKOK. (AS OF Q4 2010)


r : Spply s cl Sbb B

appxly 25,000 s schl b cpl 2011. th

nh F cs b h ply b B

wh ppxly 10,700 s schl b cpl 2011

llw by h Cy wh l b 6,700 s. i s

xpc h h nh F wll c spply

h ly p h c b B.


FUTURE SUpplY URBAN BANGKOK





th v p wly lch cs 2010 ws

56% ps cs 61% 2009. Cs h

b s lch 2010 hs b s sll bs .

th ccpcy h Sh F ws h hhs llw

by h Cy o Cy - es . th psv s h

Sh F h sl ppl wly lch pjc

LPn dvlp h Sh F . th pss h o

n-B xs l sp p h o Cy- es .

i h h q h B thl c ss clh c , wh l--vl 90 pc w

c s blw 10 ll bh s Jy 1 2011. ths

w plcy h psv c h Q4 2010, bcs

bys w lly cs by by h h

y.


SAlES pROpORTION OF NEWlY lAUNChEd UNITS IN Q4 2010 BY lOCATION

TAKE up





AvERAGE SAlES pROpORTION OF NEWlY lAUNChEd UNITS IN 2010 BY lOCATION

th v p wly lch c pjcs

B h y 2010 ws ppxly 56%. th p

h nh F s h hhs llw by h Cy

sbb B . Vs cs xpl h hh bs h

nh F. my BtS / mrt ss lc hs

h sll pcs sll lw h h s l ss s l,

sch s Shv, Sl, rj Phyh r.

oyx Phhyh by Ss Plc. shw h hhs p ls 100% s 620 s wh sll pc h 90,000

bh p sq . u ss 25 sq s p 67.5sq 2 b s. th pjc s lc Phhyh r

ppxly 550 s BtS Sph kw S.

r H 13 Shv 93 by r g Pw C., L. s

lc Shv s 93 wh l 270 s h o Cy

es h h hhs p s. th bl c

ly s s js 31 sq wh sll pc lw h

1,000,000 bh p .

lAuNCHES wITH HIgH TAKE up RATES IN Q4 2010



th p pjcs 501 1,000 s BtS / mrt ws

hhs 60% sl h h l

h BtS/mrt. Whl ccss ss s s s

bys, h sll pc s ls hh h h s, s

y bys s lc 501 1,000 s

ss s s whch pss bl s.

th p c pjcs wh 200 s ss

s ss c cls 72%, hh cs h lvly

hh pcs. Hwv pjcs lc 201 500 s BtS /

mrt ls shw h lws 41%. ths s

y pjcs b lc wy h , ss

h wy ss p syss b wh sll pcs sll hh

sl pjcs lc h BtS / mrt

ls. Pjcs lc h h 1,000 s c sc ly

65% h lw sll pc pjcs.



TAKE up RATE IN pRoxImITy To ExISTINg mASS TRANSIT lINES Q4 2010

THE AvERAgE TAKES up IN pRoxImITy To ExISTINg mASS TRANSIT STATIoNS IN THE yEAR 2010



13/17

AvERAGE SEllING pRICES OF NEWlY lAUNChEd pROjECTS Q1 Q4 2010

SEllING pRICES OF NEWlY lAUNChEd pROjECTS BY pROxImITY TO mASS TRANSIT lINES (BTS ANd mRT), Q1 - Q4 2010



th v sll pc h Cy s sll hhs ly 110,000

Bh p sq , h v sll pc Q2 Q4 ws hh

h 100,000 Bh p sq . th o Cy Ws s h l h

w BtS xs l y pjcs hs hh-

s, h h v sll pc s hh h h s.

th v sll pc h Cy s sll hhs ly 110,000

Bh p sq , h v sll pc Q2 Q4 ws hh

h 100,000 Bh p sq . th o Cy Ws s h l h

w BtS xs l y pjcs hs hh-

s, h h v sll pc s hh h h s.


INITIAl lAuNCH pRICES

lAUNCh pRICES : mASS TRANSIT EFFECT




i svy h Jl h es as Scy tsp

Ss, Vl.8, 2009 cll ifcs Ps s a F

mss ts Sys dvlp Cs Bs C

Ssc, cs o n BtS Hy khw mrt w

s vs qss hw hy ccss h ss. Fyv pc hs lv wh l s wl h

s whl 30% b x 10% bs sw.

Wh 200 s wl s ch sc s

h h, hwv hs sc wl bcs s

h ppl b bcs ch s. i h s svy

ss hs sp w sss wh h cs s wll s

sy wh pc. ths lly ccs h c c

pc 200 s h ss s ss. i l

s h syss h ss s ss cs

p wh lw ssc h svy wh h w s, p

schl, - sps h c sws. ths s

h ll pc p sls lcs h h 200 s h ss s ls h s h

sc.

th B thl c ss cl h c

h ls q 2010, wh 90 pc l--vl l

w c s blw 10 ll bh s Jy 1

2011.

th B thls plcs wll c h cs h bys

2011, s hy hv ls 10% l vl whs 2010

s ccl bs pv 100% ls wh z w py,

hs wll ls c sll sz vlps, h

c h pchs pw bys. th l cs

s s s ls lly c s p c

lchs w.

i 2009 ls vlps h sbss cc

18,000 c s lch B b 2010 h

41,000 s w lch ps cs 122%. Js vhl h l s ls vlps w lc sbb

B wh h sll pc s lw h 3 ll bh p .

ths ws h sl ls cps s p w bs cs

h wh h lw s hs

lc h sbb B lw l pcs. ths

s y c ls cps p h h

, s pjcs ls cpy c b cv

bys wh slly b c ps b sh. Hwv

sll vlps h bc wh sl l scl pjcs.


mASS TRANSIT THE dRAw ANd THE dRAwbACK

NEW pOlICIES FROm BANK OF ThAIlANd TO CONTROl ThE CONdOmINIUm mARKET

TRENdS

IN ThE YEAR 2010 lISTEd dEvElOpERS ARE FOCUSING

moRE IN THE SubuRbAN bANgKoK AREA ANd lowER -

mId RANgE mARKET



FINANCING

THE luxuRy CoNdomINIum mARKET


hOUSING lOANS FOR pERSONAl CONSUmpTION ExTENdEd BY FINANCIAl INSTITUTIONS

luxuRy CoNdomINIum uNITS lAuNCHEd duRINg Q1 2009 Q4 2010

Sc : B thl Clls il thl rsch

n: excls lbl s c h scs. Pc ch s cpbl q q.


th wh hs ls cs h 3% Q3 2009

Q1 2010 bcs h vs cvs c bys

pchs s by h sc q 2010. ths bs

hs ls h p cp h ps. th

ls cs w b ss pc.

Ss Plc lch w pjc wh ppxly 140 s lc

Shv b wly lch lxy c s

pp Q3 by 80%. ths s cs b

b ply h vll c .


16/17


S ccs b h b c c

h s pl lchs c vlps v

h c y. ms vlps lch wh b h

sy h phcs c lvls s

h pcs. as sch pps h s vs c cs, spclly h lw lvls h hv ly

cly b pp s. th cy cs w l wh

v cs h sbl wll xs

pcl pcs. t p wll slc s bys h

chs plc lv. th ys y sll s bh s

whch ps lw c s.

th c pc lchs wll lss v b h c

sccss sy hs l wy .

mss s s y c c h vlps bys.

th msy tsp hs c s pl BtS

xs ls cv h B mpl vcy .

alhh h hs b bl pss s ls, y

ppy vlps ly scbl ccpy l l pl

ls schl vlp pjcs s pss l

h vc Ppl L (B S B Y) h g

L (Ww Y B W). th ss c vlps shw pjcs lvly cls ss s ls cv

bys s pv wys ss ccss ss

h hs. rl, cbl bl ps ( h

ss s s) wl b h bs wy hs hpp.

dvlps shl cs l/sp hbs s lcs

cc by c bs syss v lh l s

hs b ss by vlp.

FORECAST



17/17

CollIERS INTERNATIoNAl THAIlANd

mANAgEmENT TEAm

reSidentiaL SaLeS & LeaSing

ny Jhsvsl | m

ProJeCt SaLeS & marketing

Ws rjjl | m

adViSorY SerViCeS

np tch | m

oFFiCe & induStriaL SerViCeS

n rsvph | S m

retaiL SerViCeS

ashw Wch | S m

reaL eState management SerViCeS

B Chy | assc dc

adViSorY SerViCeS | HoSPitaLitY

J mc g | dc

inVeStment SerViCeS

n Swl | S m

reSearCH

ay Pc | S m

Sch kchp | m

VaLuation & adViSorY SerViCeS

nchls Bw | assc dc

Phchs Phh | m

PattaYa oFFiCe

m Bwl | Sls m

Sp Sjs | Bsss dvlp m

CoLLierS internationaL thaiLand:

B ofc17/F Plch C,2 Shv r, kly,B 10110 thl

TEl +662 656 7000

FAx +662 656 7111

EmAIl [email protected]

P ofc519/4-5, Py Sc r (opps Cl FsvlPy Bch), np, Bl, Chb 20150

TEl +6638 427 771FAx +6638 427 772


RESEARChER:

thlay PcS m | rsch


RESEARChER:

thlSch kchpm | rsch


480 cs 61 cs 6 cs

th h ls ccll s svcs cpy h wl

th sc s csccl l s blblly

uS$2 bll l v

ov 2 bll sq

ov 15,000 pssls

ths p h sch ls y b wbs www.clls.c.h. Qss l

h shl b c h rsch dp h b c bv. ths c hs

b pp by Clls il vs l ly. Clls il s

s, pss ws y , xpss pl, h cl, b

l , ws c, cccy lbly. ay s py shl h w

qs s h cccy h . Clls il xcls qvclly ll pl

s, cs ws s hs c xcls ll lbly lss s s

h . Clls il s wlw l ply w p cps.

accl sccss.

u Ss: 135

C: 39L ac: 17

as Pcc: 194

emea: 95


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Bangkok Condominum Market Report Q4 2010 Year End