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Basic Chart PatternsBasic Chart PatternsEveryone Should Everyone Should
KnowKnow
Michael Kahn, CMTMichael Kahn, CMTFebruary 2011February 2011
Who am I?Who am I?
Chartered Market Technician (CMT)Chartered Market Technician (CMT) trained and certified in market trained and certified in market
analysisanalysis
Columnist – Barron's OnlineColumnist – Barron's OnlineNewsletter Editor – Quick Takes ProNewsletter Editor – Quick Takes ProFund Co-Manager – (the silence of Fund Co-Manager – (the silence of
compliance)compliance)Former charting software designerFormer charting software designer
……and beaten up enough by the marketsand beaten up enough by the markets
What can I do for you?What can I do for you?
Help investors assess risk and Help investors assess risk and reward.reward.
no crystal ballno crystal ball
no tea leavesno tea leaves
no chicken entrailsno chicken entrails
No Guarantees!No Guarantees!
Owning a hammer does not make Owning a hammer does not make you a carpenter.you a carpenter.
Buying P90X does not make you a Buying P90X does not make you a swim suit model.swim suit model.
Using charts does not make you Using charts does not make you money.money.
……..but they all can – if you work at ..but they all can – if you work at them.them.
Types of PatternsTypes of Patterns
1.1. Market at Market at rest…………...continuationsrest…………...continuations
2.2. Market finished …………reversalsMarket finished …………reversals
3.3. Market uncommitted……Market uncommitted……directionlessdirectionless
Types of PatternsTypes of Patterns
Most patterns have simple names Most patterns have simple names based on what they look like.based on what they look like.
A A Double Reverse WhirligigDouble Reverse Whirligig, if it , if it existed, would be far too complex to existed, would be far too complex to be useful.be useful.
K.I.S.S!K.I.S.S!
Continuation PatternsContinuation Patterns
TrianglesTriangles Rectangles Rectangles (aka trading ranges)(aka trading ranges)
FlagsFlags GapsGaps
But look at the next slide….But look at the next slide….
Reversal PatternsReversal Patterns
TrianglesTriangles Rectangles Rectangles (aka trading ranges)(aka trading ranges)
Flags Flags (well, not so much(well, not so much)) GapsGaps
Huh?Huh?
Key PointsKey Points
The shape of a pattern yields clues to The shape of a pattern yields clues to what is going on in terms of market what is going on in terms of market psychology.psychology.
The position of the pattern in the The position of the pattern in the context of what came before it is also context of what came before it is also critical.critical.
Patterns lean one way or the other but Patterns lean one way or the other but the market decides which way it the market decides which way it breaks.breaks.
Directionless PatternsDirectionless Patterns
Volatile swingsVolatile swings Dead calmDead calm Real-looking patterns but with Real-looking patterns but with
fuzzy bordersfuzzy borders
If you cannot eyeball the pattern in If you cannot eyeball the pattern in half a second then there is no half a second then there is no pattern. Move on.pattern. Move on.
The Everything ChartThe Everything Chart
TrianglesTriangles
TrianglesTriangles
TrianglesTriangles
TrianglesTriangles
RectanglesRectangles
RectanglesRectangles
RectanglesRectangles
RectanglesRectangles
FlagsFlags
FlagsFlags
GapsGaps
Four Types
Breakaway
Measuring (continuation)
Exhaustion
Unclassified
GapsGaps
GapsGaps
GapsGaps
GapsGaps
DirectionlessDirectionless
Directionless - or is it?Directionless - or is it?
SummarySummary
Chart patterns exist when the trend is in transition.
Basically, the market is resting. Our job is to determine if it is resting in preparation for the next leg or in preparation to turn around.
The shape of the pause gives us clues but we must wait for the market to make the final decision by moving out decisively from the pattern.
SummarySummary
Other than gaps, most patterns are variations of the others.
Flags sag because during the decline the bears were more aggressive than they were in rectangles
In triangle, both bulls and bears become increasingly more uncertain.
The real reason we do The real reason we do this:this:
To make the buy, sell To make the buy, sell or hold decision.or hold decision.
Not to predict the futureNot to predict the future
Quick Takes ProQuick Takes Pro www.QuickTakesPro.comwww.QuickTakesPro.com
Getting TechnicalGetting Technical www.Barrons.comwww.Barrons.com
Month AheadMonth Ahead www.MarketWatch.comwww.MarketWatch.com
Books Books (www.QuickTakesPro.com(www.QuickTakesPro.com/education.html/education.html))Beginner’s Guide to Charting Financial MarketsBeginner’s Guide to Charting Financial Markets
Technical Analysis: Plain and Simple – 3Technical Analysis: Plain and Simple – 3ndnd edition edition
Real World Technical AnalysisReal World Technical Analysis
……plus my favorites from other authorsplus my favorites from other authors
Quick Takes ProQuick Takes ProFree Chart of the DayFree Chart of the Day
No obligation………No spam……….No obligation………No spam……….
Sign up at the website Sign up at the website www.QuickTakesPro.comwww.QuickTakesPro.com
You can also dive right into a free trial of the You can also dive right into a free trial of the daily Quick Takes Pro newsletter. Just send an daily Quick Takes Pro newsletter. Just send an email and mention this webinar. email and mention this webinar. [email protected]@quicktakespro.com