SHAKIL'A'ROMSHOO'Professor'and'Head,'Dept.'of'Earth'Sciences,'KU'

Man>Bear'Conflict'and'the'Changing'Landscape'in'Kashmir:''

''''''''''''''''''A'FEW'THOUGHTS'

PRESENTATION'OUTLINE'! MEDIA'POLITICS'! GROUND'FACTS'! A'FEW'THOUGHTS'!  LAND'SYSTEM'CHANGES'! CC'AND'WATER'RESOURCES'! HABITAT'INFRINGEMENT''! WATERSHED'SCALE'! TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'

POLITICS'

Year' Total'Conflicts'1995' 1'1996' 1'1997' 2'1998' 1'1999' 1'2000' 5'2001' 8'2002' 7'2003' 7'2004' 19'2005' 48'2006' 51'2007' 80'2008' 130'2009' 186'

THE'OTHER'SIDE'……'

•  INCREASING BEAR ATTACKS ACROSS THE VALLEY

•  ILL EQUIPPED GOVT. MACHINERY

THE OTHER SIDE …..

•  POOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM & NO ACTION PLAN

•  Lack of concrete and holistic measures on the ground

•  Lack of awareness among the people •  Thus, BEAR-PHOBIA, Frustration and PANIC

REACTIONS

Bear'AWack'Cases'operated'at'SKIIMS,'Srinagar''

A'FEW'THOUGHTS………'" Tremendous'transformaZon'of'the'socioeconomic'

and' environmental' scenario' in' the' valley' during'the'last'five'decades'

" Changing'land'system:'parZcularly'the'large'scale'conversion'of'land'to'horZculture''

" Changing' Climate:' Scanty' and' eraZc' snowfall' in'the'region'

" Changes' in' stream>flows,' drainage' and'depleZon'of'water'bodies/wetlands'

" UrbanizaZon'along'the'foothills'and'forest'areas'" DeforestaZon…..?'" Bear'populaZon??'

CONFLICT ZONE

HISTORICAL'Bear'Habitat'

HISTORICALLY'NO'BEAR'ZONE'

BEAR>MAN'CONFLICT'ZONE'SINCE'LAST'10'YERS'NOW'

Conflict (Death + Injuries) Statistics, Data Source-J & K Wildlife Department

'! 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total

Anantnag 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 6 3 1 7 27 44 63 154 Bandipora 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 7 1 2 4 1 6 28 Baramulla 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 7 4 4 22 29 72 Budgam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3

Ganderbal 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 5 1 0 20 35 Kulgam 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 9 2 5 7 31

Kupwara 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 16 7 10 43 Pulwama 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 3 18 8 15 42 31 123 Srinagar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 5 1 9 25

Anantnag > Pulwama > Baramulla > Kupwara > Ganderbal > Kulgam > Srinagar > Budgam

9'Districts' 76'Villages'

Land'System'Changes'SINCE'1972'

CLASS NAME! 1972 AREA (HA)! 1992 AREA (HA)! 2008AREA (HA)!FOREST! 485473.31! 464798.36! 391368.55!AGRICULTURE! 337788.45! 301094.00! 269138.93 !PLANTATION! 92240.15! 89443.34! 85876.76 !HORTICULTURE ! 17954.44! 28858.26! 71899.18!WATER! 12795.11! 11024.42! 6827.09!RIVER BED! 9899.81! 9812.22! 7512.82!AQUA_VEGETATION! 3981.44! 7503.56! 11729.20!BUILT-UP! 578.07! 5914.96! 21432.81!

Drying'up'of'the'Water'Holes'

!!

!!

!!

!!

!! !

0!

100!

200!

300!

1971!

1974!

1977!

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1986!

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1995!

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2001!

2004!

2007!

2010!

Yearly Discharge-Dachigam

Years

Di

scha

rge

(Cus

ecs)

0!

1000!

2000!

3000!

1971!

1975!

1979!

1983!

1987!

1991!

1995!

1999!

2003!

2007!

yearly&discharge-Batakot&

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Dis

char

ge (C

usec

s)

0!

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yearly&discharge-Odour&

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Di

scha

rge

(Cus

ecs)

20!

220!

420!

620!

1971!

1975!

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2007!

yearly&discharge-Bringi&

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char

ge (C

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s)

20!

220!

420!1971!

1974!

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yearly&discharge-Sandran&

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isch

arge

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ecs)

50!

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450!

197

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201

yearly&discharge-Sukhnag&

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ecs)

100!

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1998!

Yearly&Discharge-Pohru&

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Dis

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ge (C

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s)

200!

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Yearly&discharge-Vishu&

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harg

e (C

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yearly&discharge-Dakhil&

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0!

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yearly&discharge-Vij&

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isch

arge

(Cus

ecs)

STREAMFLOW''DECLINE'

0!50!100!150!200!250!300!350!400!450!

1971!

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0!100!200!300!400!500!600!700!800!

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0!200!400!600!800!

1000!1200!1400!1600!

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1000!2000!3000!4000!5000!6000!7000!8000!

1971!

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100!200!300!400!500!600!700!800!900!

1971!

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2007! 0!

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Demographic'Changes'•  The!state!of!has!also!shown!popula=on!growth!from!2.14!million!in!1901!to!12.5!million!2011.!!

•  A!growth!rate!of!about!23%!compared!to!the!popula=on!figures!of!10.1!million!in!2001.!!

!

!

Popula=on!changes!from!1981J2001!

Habitat'Conflict:'Bear'&'Man'can’t'Co>exist''

Forest'resource'Assessment'

Forest'FragmentaZon!'Does'it'maWer'here?'

Habitat'Infringement''

Understanding''the'conflict:'WATERSHED'SCALE'

WATERSHED>WISE'

Conflict Zone 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tot

Arin-Madhumati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 5

Rembaira & Romshi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 7

Sukhnag & Doodganga 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 11

Bringi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 8 17

Vijay-Dhakil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 8 9 23

Dal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 4 1 9 24

Sandran & Vishav 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 6 9 25

Ferzpr-Ningl-Gundr-lowJhe 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 10 10 30

Wular1-Pohru 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 15 8 10 45

Sindh 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 7 8 6 4 1 24 56

Kuthar 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 16 12 16 20 70

Lidder 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 5 3 2 5 16 27 43 103

Arapal 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 17 9 17 41 40 131

HorZcult' Forest' urban' Agric'Anchar' + - + - Arapal' + - + + Bringi' + - + - Dal' + - + - Doodhganga' + - + - Garzan' + - + - Sukhnag' + - + - Kuthar' + - + + Lidder' + - + + Sandran' + - + - Sind' + - + - Rembiara' + - + - Romshi' + - + - Vishav' + - + - Arin' + - + - Ferozpur' + - + - Gundar' + - + + Lower'Jhelum' + - + + MadumaZ' + - + + Ningal' + - + + Pohru' + - + + Vijay'Dhakil' + - + + Wular'I' + - + - Wular'II' + - + -

WATERSHED>WISE'

WATERSHED-WISE ARAPAL

2' 3'1' 1'

17'

9'

17'

41' 40'

2001' 2002' 2003' 2004' 2005' 2006' 2007' 2008' 2009'

Arapal&

Class&& Area'(hec)>72' Area(hec)>08' Change''Forest' 24366' 17518' >6848'HorZculture' 858' 1362' +504'Agriculture' 15064' 17192' +2128'Built_up' 85' 876' +791'

1! 0! 1!5! 3! 2!

5!

16!

27!

43!

2000' 2001' 2002' 2003' 2004' 2005' 2006' 2007' 2008' 2009'

WATERSHED-WISE LIDDER

Lidder&

Class&& Area'(hec)>72' Area(hec)>08' Change'in'area'Forest' 58275' 38467' >19808'HorZculture' 884' 2957' +2073'Agriculture' 18544' 17623' >921'Built_up' 65' 213' +148.39435'

SEASONALITY IN ATTACKS (ARAPAL WATERSHED)

Conflict Zone Map

TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'!  NEED'FOR'INTROSPECTION'AS'THE'PROBLEM'IS'

OUTCOME'OF'OUR'FAULTY'&'MYOPIC'STRATEGIES'AT'BOTH'GOVT.'AND'PERSONAL'LEVEL'

!  'NEED'FOR'AN'INDEPTH'SCIENTIFIC'ANALYSIS'TO'LOOK'AT'THE'ROOT'CAUSES'

!  NEED'FOR'AN'ACTION'PLAN'SO'THAT'CONCRETE'STEPS'ARE'TAKEN'TO'ARREST'THE'CONFLICT'

!  ADHOCISM'AND'KNEE'JERK'REACTIONS'SHOULD'GIVE'WAY'TO'WELL>THOUGHT>OUT>'ACTION'PLAN''

!  'INVOLVEMENT'AND'AWARENESS'OF'THE'COMMUNTIES'

TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'IT' IS' THE' COLLECTIVE' FAILURE' OF' THE'GOVERNMENT' MACHINERY' THAT' HAS'FAILED' TO' UNDERSTAND' THE' CAUSAL'FACTORS'AND'HAVE'NOT'COME'UP'WITH'A' ROBUST' ACTION' PLAN' TO' TACKLE' THE'PROBLEM.''

SO' WHY' THIS' MISDIRECTION'OF'MEDIA/CENTRE'TIRADE?'