Northwest Center for Public Health Practice

Before we get started with Influenza,let’s take a poll…

In my opinion, the amount of media/policy attention being given to preparing for pandemic influenza is:

A. Excessive

B. Exactly enough

C. About right

D. Too little

Don’t forget to indicate your choice in the feedback section of the toolbar on the left.

Northwest Center for Public Health Practice

Planning for Pandemic Influenza

John KobayashiFaculty, Northwest Center for

Public Health Practice; Foreign Advisor with the

Field Epidemiology Training Program in Japan

Northwest Center for Public Health Practice

What is Pandemic Influenza?

• Pandemic Influenza: circulation of strains for which most or all of the world’s population lacks immunity

• Antigenic Drift: small changes in influenza viruses with partial immunity in the population – occurs routinely

• Antigenic Shift: large changes with little immunity in the population – necessary for pandemic influenza

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Poll Question

In my opinion, the strain of influenza that is most likely to cause the next pandemic is the strain currently causing the outbreaks of “bird flu.”

A. True

B. False

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Influenza as a Zoonosis:A Potential Source of “Antigenic Shift”

HumanHuman virusvirus

ReassortantReassortantvirusvirus

Non-humanNon-humanvirusvirus

15 HAs15 HAs9 NAs9 NAs

DIRECTDIRECT

Diagram source: Ben Schwartz; National Vaccine Program

HA = Hemagglutinin NA = Neuraminidase

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WHO Influenza Pandemic PhasesInterpandemic Phase 0 (Emergence)

• Level 0: Usual influenza viruses circulate, causing yearly outbreaks

• Level 1: Novel Virus Alert: Identification of a novel influenza virus in a person

• Level 2: Confirmation that the novel influenza virus has infected two or more people, but rapid person-to-person spread and multiple outbreaks have not occurred

• Level 3: Pandemic Alert: Confirmation of person-to-person spread in the general population with at least one outbreak lasting more than 2 weeks in one country

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H5N1 Outbreaks and Flyways of Birds

Sources: AI outbreaks: OIE, FAO, and Government sources. Flyways: Wetlands International

Districts with H5N1 outbreaks since January 2005

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Countries Affected by H5N1

Countries affected by H5N1 in birds in the WHO European Region since 7/05

WHO EURO countries with confirmed outbreaks reported

Areas with confirmed outbreaks reported

Other WHO EURO countries

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A Few Problems with Influenza Surveillance

• Reports for both animals and people are the tip of the iceberg.

• Multiple problems exist in many countries affected by avian influenza (e.g., other diseases, natural disasters, political unrest, economic pressures).

• During early stages, person-to-person spread is difficult to document.

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A Few Pandemic Influenza Strategies

• Mobilize through national pandemic plans.

• Use interpandemic influenza as a drill for pandemic influenza.

• Networking: Public health decisions are frequently made with incomplete information. Incomplete information is generally better from someone you know and trust.

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Training Programs in Epidemiology and Public Health Interventions Network

http://www.tephinet.org

AETP established

AETP under development

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Networking at FETP-Japan

Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP)

• 2002 Syndromic surveillance: FIFA World Cup. 10 Japanese prefectures and coordination with South Korea

• 2003 SARS: sent 2 former trainees to Hong Kong

• 2003 - Ongoing: current trainees sent for 1-2 months to CSR, WHO, Manila

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Networking at FETP-Japan (cont.)

• 2002 – 2004 International outbreak investigations:

E. coli O157 in Japanese students traveling to Australia

Norovirus in Australians from Japanese oysters

Shigellosis in Japanese and American travelers from Hawaii

E. coli O157 in Okinawans from American hamburger

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• 2004 – 2005 Current and former FETP supervisors from Thailand, Malaysia and the US help teach the introductory epidemiology class for FETP Japan

• 2005 FETP trainee and lab staff assist in national surveillance assessment in Mongolia

• 2005 Staff sent to India and Indonesia for tsunami relief and avian influenza

Networking at FETP-Japan (cont.)

Northwest Center for Public Health Practice

Questions?