Benefits of the full ECMWF product setBenefits of the full ECMWF product set at a commercial weather provider at a commercial weather provider

[dr. Wim van den Berg, meteorological research department][dr. Wim van den Berg, meteorological research department]

ECMWF Users MeetingECMWF Users MeetingJune 15, 2006June 15, 2006

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 2

OverviewOverview

Summary of current use of ECMWF Model dataSummary of current use of ECMWF Model data

Fields from the Deterministic and other ModelsFields from the Deterministic and other Models

Applications of the Deterministic and other ModelsApplications of the Deterministic and other Models

Applications of data from MARS archiveApplications of data from MARS archive

RecommendationsRecommendations

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 3

Summary of current use of ECMWF Model dataSummary of current use of ECMWF Model data

Changes in use of ECMWF fields since maximum license feeChanges in use of ECMWF fields since maximum license fee worldwide original gaussian fieldsworldwide original gaussian fields 00 and 12 utc runs (MOS12 and MOS00)00 and 12 utc runs (MOS12 and MOS00) early delivery system (MOS12 in evening)early delivery system (MOS12 in evening) 1.2.2006 high resolution and 3h fields (+3 ... +72)1.2.2006 high resolution and 3h fields (+3 ... +72)

Current flow and use of ECMWF data:Current flow and use of ECMWF data: 70-80 GB/day70-80 GB/day processed and interpolated - near real time except for EPS - to a resolution of processed and interpolated - near real time except for EPS - to a resolution of

(0,25-)0,4-0,5-1,0(-1,5) degrees depending on customer and application needs(0,25-)0,4-0,5-1,0(-1,5) degrees depending on customer and application needs ECMWF model data is seen as our basic (most reliable) forecasting tool, but ECMWF model data is seen as our basic (most reliable) forecasting tool, but

for comparison and multimodel approach we also use UKMO-GFS-HiRLAM for comparison and multimodel approach we also use UKMO-GFS-HiRLAM data.data.

ECMWF model data and its derived products are used throughout the Meteo ECMWF model data and its derived products are used throughout the Meteo Consult Group (Netherlands, UK, Germany, Belgium and other).Consult Group (Netherlands, UK, Germany, Belgium and other).

Quality of ECMWF temperature forecasts (USA)Quality of ECMWF temperature forecasts (USA)based on dec.2005 verification of (Multimodel) MOSbased on dec.2005 verification of (Multimodel) MOS

TEMPERATURE FORECAST (°F)

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

4.20

4.40

fp12 fp18 fp24 fp30 fp36 fp42 fp48 fp54 fp60 fp66 fp72

NWS_ETA

NWS_GFS

MCMOS_ECMWF.GFS

MCMOS_GFS

MCMOS_ECMWF

MCMOS_MULTI

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 5

Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (1)Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (1)

Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees)Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees) 00 and 12 utc runs, incl 06 and 18 utc analysis fields00 and 12 utc runs, incl 06 and 18 utc analysis fields +3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe+3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe surface (17 elements)surface (17 elements) pressure levels 1000-200 hPa (8 elements)pressure levels 1000-200 hPa (8 elements) model levels 91-82 (boundary layer, 4 elements)model levels 91-82 (boundary layer, 4 elements) 30-35 GB/day30-35 GB/day

Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees)Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees) 00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members +6 (+6h) +240h; full globe+6 (+6h) +240h; full globe surface (11 elements)surface (11 elements) pressure levels 850-925-500 hPa (1-2 elements)pressure levels 850-925-500 hPa (1-2 elements) 35 GB/day35 GB/day

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 6

Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (2)Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (2)

Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees)Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees) +3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe+3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe surface (10 elements)surface (10 elements) 2 GB/day2 GB/day

Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,5Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,5→→1,0 degrees)1,0 degrees) 00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members +12 (+12h) +240h; full globe+12 (+12h) +240h; full globe surface (6 elements)surface (6 elements) 1 GB/day1 GB/day

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 7

Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (3)Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (3)

Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System (reduced(reduced

gaussian 1,125 degreesgaussian 1,125 degrees 50+1 members50+1 members D5-D32; full globeD5-D32; full globe surface (11 elements)surface (11 elements) pressure levels 500 hPa (1 element)pressure levels 500 hPa (1 element) 4 GB/week4 GB/week

Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees)1,875 degrees)

40 members40 members D1-D180; full globeD1-D180; full globe surface (8 elements)surface (8 elements) pressure levels 925 and 500 hPa (1-2 elements)pressure levels 925 and 500 hPa (1-2 elements) 4 GB/month4 GB/month

Data from MARS archive (special projects)Data from MARS archive (special projects)

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 8

Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (1)Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (1)

Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees)Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees) interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps)interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps) interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps)interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps)

Derived products with emphasis on (severe) weather warnings: Derived products with emphasis on (severe) weather warnings: (in)stability parameters and weather codes(in)stability parameters and weather codes

Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees)Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees) interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps)interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps) interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps)interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps)

Derived fields like 10% risk and averagesDerived fields like 10% risk and averages

Applications:Applications: MCMOS2004, which will be replaced by Multimodel MOS 2006MCMOS2004, which will be replaced by Multimodel MOS 2006 Special MOS forecasts (wind energy, road/rail conditions)Special MOS forecasts (wind energy, road/rail conditions) Automatic frontsAutomatic fronts

31 May, 2006: risk of snow at 1000m in the Alps31 May, 2006: risk of snow at 1000m in the Alps ( (background: model orography)background: model orography)

model derived WW (fp +18) observed weathermodel derived WW (fp +18) observed weather

Risk of thunderstorms:model derived WW and SFUK observations

Left:

17-05-2006 (fp +21)

Right:

21-05-2006 (fp +18)

Forecast maps for pigeon flyers

Right: wind at 70m (level 89)

Left: significant clouds,model derived weather

ECMWF EPS average maps for 7 June, 2006ECMWF EPS average maps for 7 June, 2006D8 forecastD8 forecast D2 forecastD2 forecast

Multimodel MOS TX forecast for CaliforniaMultimodel MOS TX forecast for California(background: direct model output MX2T6 and model orography)(background: direct model output MX2T6 and model orography)

Local ECMWF MOS wind (energy) forecast,compared with direct model output (fp +15)

Experiments with automatic fronts

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 16

Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (2)Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (2)

Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees)Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees)

Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,5Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,5→→1,0 degrees)1,0 degrees) Derived fields like 10% risk and averagesDerived fields like 10% risk and averages

Application:Application: Nautical MeteoBase (multimodel approach with coupled wind-wave Nautical MeteoBase (multimodel approach with coupled wind-wave

algorithms)algorithms)

ECMWF EPS risk areas(compared with direct model output of surface pressure and 10FG6)

Left:

10% highest gusts (kts)

8-06-2006 (fp +78)

vrf.: 58 kts and 7m!

Right:

prob. sign. sea/swell > 2.5m 8-06-2006 (fp +78)

Nautical meteoBase and EPS (sign. sea/swell)

analysis: 4-5m!

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 19

Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (3)Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (3)

Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,125 degrees(reduced gaussian 1,125 degrees

Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees)1,875 degrees)

Application:Application: Development of weekly/monthly tendency forecasts for energy and Development of weekly/monthly tendency forecasts for energy and

agriculture.agriculture.

ECMWF EPS & Monthly Forecast: daily T2m (March 2006 – cold, and May 2006 – warm/cool)

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 21

Applications of data from MARS archiveApplications of data from MARS archive

research projects and hindcast studies (downscaled ERA40 wind to research projects and hindcast studies (downscaled ERA40 wind to detect discontinuities and trends in local wind speed observations)detect discontinuities and trends in local wind speed observations)

consultancies (MM5 studies)consultancies (MM5 studies)

extension and updating of MOS systemextension and updating of MOS system

other statistical post processing (downscaling of model fields to customer other statistical post processing (downscaling of model fields to customer specified grids)specified grids)

Downscaling to arable land (JRC: CGMS System)case TX 1-07-2003, Oper.Model 0,4° left and Seasonal Model 1,875° right

CGMS 25x25km terrain

interpolation

statistical

interpolation

Simulated effect of projected harbour extension in Dubai (MM5 27→9→3→1km runs with ECMWF boundaries)

Grid Box C1 - Temperature 4 May

222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445

0 6 12 18 24 30 36

Forecast hour from 3 May 2004, 12 UTC

Tem

pera

ture

(°C)

control simulation

test simulation

obs_Dubal

obs_Dubai Int. Airp.

15-6-2006 ECMWF Users Meeting 2006 24

RecommendationsRecommendations

Emphasis on early delivery of 00utc products (most customers Emphasis on early delivery of 00utc products (most customers need their updates in the morning before 09 lt (07 utc in summer)need their updates in the morning before 09 lt (07 utc in summer)

MARS products and ECMWF Catalogue similarMARS products and ECMWF Catalogue similar

Hindcast or reforecast data available for at least 1 year soon after Hindcast or reforecast data available for at least 1 year soon after a major change in model (resolution, levels) to enable quick MOS a major change in model (resolution, levels) to enable quick MOS adjustmentsadjustments

Web access to non-Grib data and experimental products like EFI Web access to non-Grib data and experimental products like EFI charts and Tropical Cyclone Trackscharts and Tropical Cyclone Tracks