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Bering Sea •Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catc •Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research •First-order Knowledge Base: reviews and special issues •Considerable management and support activities •Not generally overfished: Dynamic ecosystem and climate ch

Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

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Page 1: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Bering Sea

•Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch•Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research•First-order Knowledge Base: reviews and special issues•Considerable management and support activities•Not generally overfished: Dynamic ecosystem and climate change

Page 2: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Climate Patterns

1977-1988 (PNA+/PDO) 1989-1995 (AO+) 2000-2005 (Arctic Warm) Pacific North American Arctic Oscillation

Overland and Wang (2005)

2006

Surface Air Temperature Anomalies

Page 3: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Total Biomass of EBS Pollock

0

3

6

9

12

15

1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004year

Bio

ma

ss

in m

illio

n t

on

s

Time lags

Page 4: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Hunt et al. (2002)

Oscillating Control Hypothesis

Page 5: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Bering Indicators

Page 6: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Multivariate look at indicators

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3S

um

of

RS

I va

lue

s a) C lim ate Indices PD O w, A IPN A, PDO sN P, EPw, SA I, M EI

EPss, N PPD O w,VI, AOW P

VI, EPssPD O s, EPwM EI

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3

Su

m o

f R

SI

valu

es

b) Physical IndicesTsfc, SATwBSPIw , SWIC I, W M m

SATw, TsfcBSPIw , IC I BSPIw

W Sna

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3

4

Su

m o

f R

SI

valu

es

c) B io logical Indices

Yellow fin So lePacific Perch

Fur sealTurbotR ock SoleSalm onA laska P laceYellow fin So lePacific Perch

Fla thead SoleEchinoderm sSnow crabSalm onJellyfishRock Sole

Fur SealSnow CrabJellyfishPacific CodTurbot

Page 7: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Dendogram of Bering Sea stocks based on hierarchical cluster analysis of pairwise

Manhatten distances among standardized recruitment

From Franz Mueter & Bern Megrey

Page 8: Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Charge to Workshop

While understanding the limits from complexity, the ongoing efforts by NMFS and others, and the need for comprehensive reviews (300+ pages),

How do we summarized the state of the Bering Sea that will provide sensitive indicators (<10) of change?