Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman & CEO Cassatt Corporation

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    23-Dec-2015

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  • Slide 1
  • Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman & CEO Cassatt Corporation
  • Slide 2
  • Inflection Points in Human History 1. The Invention of Language 2. The Invention of the Printing Press 3. The Invention of the Web and we are at the Inflection Point of the Web right now!
  • Slide 3
  • The Cycles of Innovation Model Predicting the future is pointless, but it is possible to identify trends that have significant effects. Peter Drucker Cycles are thirty years long, one starts every 10 years Cycles include three ten year phases: 1) Invention, Boom and Bust 2) Buildout and Consolidation 3) Commoditization Information age includes six cycles 1960 - 2040 Cycles 1 3: The Cloud Platform Cycles 4 6: The Web Platform Cycle 4 is the Inflection Point 1990 2020 RIGHT NOW!
  • Slide 4
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 5
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Semiconductors 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 6
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Semiconductors 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 7
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 8
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies ComputersNetworks Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 9
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ Computer HW & SW Companies Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer Systems and Software 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 10
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking Companies Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Client/Serve Applications Dist Storage: SAN & NAS ______________ Networking Companies Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer Systems and Software Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking and Storage Systems and Software 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 11
  • The Six Cycles of Innovation Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking Companies Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Client/Serve Applications Dist Storage: SAN & NAS ______________ Networking Companies Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer Systems and Software Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking and Storage Systems and Software 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 The Inflection Point!
  • Slide 12
  • The Inflection Point Cycle 3: The network, the last piece falls in place The Platform shifts from the desktop to the network! The basis of the Cloud Platform Cycle 4: The Internet and the Inflection Point The final end! Everyone and everything is connected! Final Evolution of The Cloud! Emergence of The Web!
  • Slide 13
  • The Cloud: The IT Platform Utility Rules of a Platform: Think of Apple versus Microsoft Commoditization of IT Switching Cost = 10X value improvement Customization makes long tail possible Rules of a Utility: Think if the Electric Utility Isolation of supply & demand: Scale, Choice, Competitive pricing (Isolation of ISO Level 7 from 1 6) Meter on the customer based on quantity and quality of service Customer owns their IP & controls its usage (Software & Policy) Self-configuring, Self-optimizing & Self-healing
  • Slide 14
  • Evolution of The Cloud Cloud 1.0: 2000 2010, PaaS, IaaS, SaaS Greenfield, External, Proprietary Neither a Platform or a Utility E.g.. Amazon, Salesforce.com, Google Cloud 2.0: 2010 2020, Cloud 1.0 plus Quadruple Conversion and Consumerization of IT CaaS: Client as a service, online and mobile worlds converge Internal Cloud: First IT Platform (E.g. Cassatt, first Cloud Platform) External Cloud Extends: Connectivity of Apps and Mobility of Data A Platform but not a Utility! Cloud 3:0: 2020 - 2030, The Cloud Utility Platform The end of IT as we know it Everything As A Service! The choice, control and ownership
  • Slide 15
  • Emergence of The Web The world of everybody and everything! The Internet has three properties that create value: 1) Free reach 2) Straight-thru-processing 3) Transparency Evolution of the Web, Cycles 4 6: 1) Cycle 4: Web 2.0 - Free Reach (1990 - 2020) Social Networking 2) Cycle 5: Web 3.0 - Straight-thru processing (2000 -2030) Pull Economy 3) Cycle 6: Web 4.0 - Transparency (2010 - 2040) The Cyber-Aware Proxy
  • Slide 16
  • Cycle 4: Web 2.0 Social Networking Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking Companies Reach WWW Distributed Apps Ecommerce ___________ Internet Applications & Business Models Straight Thru- Processing Transparency Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Client/Serve Applications Dist Storage: SAN & NAS ______________ Networking Companies Reach Broadband Search, SaaS Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation ___________ Application & Infrastructure Software Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer Systems and Software Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking and Storage Systems and Software Reach WWW Distributed Apps Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant ____________ Internet Applications & Business Models 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 17
  • Cycle 5: The Internet Economy Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking Companies Reach WWW Distributed Apps Ecommerce ___________ Internet Applications & Business Models Straight Thru- Processing WOA/Mashups Identity 1.0 Cloud 1.0 ___________ Web 3.0 Apps and Pull business models Transparency Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Client/Serve Applications Dist Storage: SAN & NAS ______________ Networking Companies Reach Broadband Search, SaaS Web 2.0 - Social Networking -Dist Co-Creation ___________ Application & Infrastructure Software Straight Thru- Processing Web 3.0 Pull Internet Commerce Identity 2.0 Cloud 2.0 ICT Industry Providers (Quad Convergence ) Search and Ad business models Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer Systems and Software Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking and Storage Systems and Software Reach WWW Distributed Apps Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant ____________ Internet Applications & Business Models Straight thru -Processing WOA/Mashups Identity 3.0 Cloud 3.0 Web 3.0 - Cyber Proxy ___________ Web 3.0 Apps and Push business models 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 18
  • Cycle 6: Web Presence Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking Companies Reach WWW Distributed Apps Ecommerce ___________ Internet Applications & Business Models Straight Thru- Processing WOA/Mashups Identity 1.0 Cloud 1.0 ___________ Web 3.0 Apps and Pull business models Transparency Associative data services Quantum computing ___________ Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models) Semiconductors Manufacturing Equipment Chip design & test tools ______________ Semiconductor Companies Computers Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ Computer HW & SW Companies Networks Client/Serve Applications Dist Storage: SAN & NAS ______________ Networking Companies Reach Broadband Search, SaaS Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation ___________ Application & Infrastructure Software Straight Thru- Processing Web 3.0 Pull Internet Commerce Identity 2.0 Cloud 2.0 ICT Industry Providers (Quad Convergence ) Search and Ad business models Transparency Web 4.0 Web Presence Identity 3.0 Self-forming applications Pull market economics consolidates the Push mass market economy Semiconductors Integrated circuit Simple memory and logic chips ___________ Semiconductors Computers Minicomputers PCs Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________ Computer Systems and Software Networks Hubs & Routers Networking SW ___________ Networking and Storage Systems and Software Reach WWW Distributed Apps Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant ____________ Internet Applications & Business Models Straight thru -Processing WOA/Mashups Identity 3.0 Cloud 3.0 Web 3.0 - Cyber Proxy ___________ Web 3.0 Apps and Push business models Transparency Associative data services Web 4.0 - Cyber Awareness - Physical & Virtual converge ___________ Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Commoditization Commoditization Build Out Build Out _______ Consolidation Invention Invention _________ Boom & Bust Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  • Slide 19
  • Life on the Web in 2040 Identity provides security with privacy and civil liberties The Pull Economy dramatically improves productivity moving most the world into the middle class! Web Presence where virtual meets physical and our abilities transcend our disabilities! My Cyber-Aware Proxy: The self-aware proxy for life My buddy, my alter-ego, my mentor and my guardian! My world is under my contro...