Biological Contagion - Principles of Complex Systems … Contagion Introduction ... ugly, everything good, especially the bad, ... 1920’s: Reed and Frost. I. 1920’s/1930’s:

BiologicalContagion

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Simple diseasespreading modelsBackground

Prediction

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Toy metapopulation models

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Predicting socialcatastrophe

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Biological ContagionPrinciples of Complex Systems

CSYS/MATH 300, Fall, 2011

Prof. Peter Dodds

Department of Mathematics & Statistics | Center for Complex Systems |Vermont Advanced Computing Center | University of Vermont

Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License.

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Outline

Introduction

Simple disease spreading modelsBackgroundPredictionMore modelsToy metapopulation modelsModel outputConclusionsPredicting social catastrophe

References

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Contagion

A confusion of contagions:I Was Harry Potter some kind of virus?I What about the Da Vinci Code?I Did Sudoku spread like a disease?I Language?I Religion?I Democracy...?


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Contagion

NaturomorphismsI The feeling was contagious.I The news spread like wildfire.I Freedom is the most contagious virus known to

man.Hubert H. Humphrey, Johnsons vice president

I Nothing is so contagious as enthusiasm.Samuel Taylor Coleridge


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Social contagion

Optimism according to Ambrose Bierce: ()The doctrine that everything is beautiful, including what isugly, everything good, especially the bad, and everythingright that is wrong. ... It is hereditary, but fortunately notcontagious.

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Social contagion

Eric Hoffer, 19021983There is a grandeur in the uniformity of the mass. Whena fashion, a dance, a song, a slogan or a joke sweepslike wildfire from one end of the continent to the other,and a hundred million people roar with laughter, swaytheir bodies in unison, hum one song or break forth inanger and denunciation, there is the overpoweringfeeling that in this country we have come nearer thebrotherhood of man than ever before.

I Hoffer () was an interesting fellow...

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The spread of fanaticism

Hoffers acclaimed work: The True Believer:Thoughts On The Nature Of Mass Movements (1951) [3]

Quotes-aplenty:I We can be absolutely certain only about things we

do not understand.I Mass movements can rise and spread without belief

in a God, but never without belief in a devil.I Where freedom is real, equality is the passion of the

masses. Where equality is real, freedom is thepassion of a small minority.


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Imitation

despair.com

When people are freeto do as they please,they usually imitateeach other.

Eric HofferThe Passionate Stateof Mind [4]

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The collective...

despair.com

Never Underestimatethe Power of StupidPeople in LargeGroups.

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Contagion

DefinitionsI (1) The spreading of a quality or quantity between

individuals in a population.I (2) A disease itself:

the plague, a blight, the dreaded lurgi, ...I from Latin: con = together with + tangere to touch.I Contagion has unpleasant overtones...I Just Spreading might be a more neutral wordI But contagion is kind of exciting...


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Examples of non-disease spreading:

Interesting infections:I Spreading of buildings in the US... ()

I Viral get-out-the-vote video. ()

Lavf50.5.0

Convertified by iSquint - http://www.isquint.org

walmartspread.mp4Media File (video/mp4)

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Contagions

Two main classes of contagion1. Infectious diseases:

tuberculosis, HIV, ebola, SARS, influenza, ...

2. Social contagion:fashion, word usage, rumors, riots, religion, ...


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Mathematical Epidemiology

The standard SIR model [8]

I = basic model of disease contagionI Three states:

1. S = Susceptible2. I = Infective/Infectious3. R = Recovered or Removed or Refractory

I S(t) + I(t) + R(t) = 1I Presumes random interactions (mass-action

principle)I Interactions are independent (no memory)I Discrete and continuous time versions


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Discrete time automata example:

I

R

SI

1

1 I

r1 r

Transition Probabilities:

for being infected givencontact with infectedr for recovery for loss of immunity


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Original models attributed toI 1920s: Reed and FrostI 1920s/1930s: Kermack and McKendrick [5, 7, 6]

I Coupled differential equations with a mass-actionprinciple


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Independent Interaction models

Differential equations for continuous modelddt

S = IS + R

ddt

I = IS rI

ddt

R = rI R

, r , and are now rates.

Reproduction Number R0:I R0 = expected number of infected individuals

resulting from a single initial infectiveI Epidemic threshold: If R0 > 1, epidemic occurs.


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Reproduction Number R0

Discrete version:I Set up: One Infective in a randomly mixing

population of SusceptiblesI At time t = 0, single infective random bumps into a

SusceptibleI Probability of transmission = I At time t = 1, single Infective remains infected with

probability 1 rI At time t = k , single Infective remains infected with

probability (1 r)k


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Reproduction Number R0

Discrete version:I Expected number infected by original Infective:

R0 = + (1 r) + (1 r)2 + (1 r)3 + . . .

= (

1 + (1 r) + (1 r)2 + (1 r)3 + . . .)

= 1

1 (1 r)= /r

For S0 initial infectives (1 S0 = R0 immune):

R0 = S0/r


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For the continuous versionI Second equation:

ddt

I = SI rI

ddt

I = (S r)I

I Number of infectives grows initially if

S(0) r > 0 S(0) > r S(0)/r > 1

I Same story as for discrete model.


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Example of epidemic threshold:

0 1 2 3 40

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

R0

Frac

tion

infe

cted

I Continuous phase transition.I Fine idea from a simple model.


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Many variants of the SIR model:I SIS: susceptible-infective-susceptibleI SIRS: susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptibleI compartment models (age or gender partitions)I more categories such as exposed (SEIRS)I recruitment (migration, birth)


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Disease spreading models

For novel diseases:1. Can we predict the size of an epidemic?2. How important is the reproduction number R0?

R0 approximately same for all of the following:I 1918-19 Spanish Flu 500,000 deaths in USI 1957-58 Asian Flu 70,000 deaths in USI 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu 34,000 deaths in USI 2003 SARS Epidemic 800 deaths world-wide


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Size distributions

Size distributions are important elsewhere:I earthquakes (Gutenberg-Richter law)I city sizes, forest fires, war fatalitiesI wealth distributionsI popularity (books, music, websites, ideas)I Epidemics?

Power laws distributions are common but not obligatory...

Really, what about epidemics?I Simply hasnt attracted much attention.I Data not as clean as for other phenomena.


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Feeling Ill in Iceland

Caseload recorded monthly for range of diseases inIceland, 1888-1990

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19900

0.01

0.02

0.03

Date

Freq

uenc

y

Iceland: measlesnormalized count

I Treat outbreaks separated in time as noveldiseases.


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Really not so good at all in Iceland

Epidemic size distributions N(S) forMeasles, Rubella, and Whooping Cough.

0 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.10

1

2

3

4

5

75

N(S

)

S

A

0 0.02 0.04 0.060

1

2

3

4

5

105

S

B

0 0.025 0.05 0.0750

1

2

3

4

5

75

S

C

Spike near S = 0, relatively flat otherwise.


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Measles & Pertussis

0 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.10

1

2

3

4

5

75

N (

)

A

105

104

103

102

101

100

101

102

N>(

)

0 0.025 0.05 0.0750

1

2

3

4

5

75

B

105

104

103

102

101

100

101

102

N>(

)

Insert plots:Complementary cumulative frequency distributions:

N( > ) +1

Limited scaling with a possible break.


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Power law distributions

Measured values of :I measles: 1.40 (low ) and 1.13 (high )I pertussis: 1.39 (low ) and 1.16 (high )

I Expect 2 < 3 (finite mean, infinite variance)I When < 1, cant normalizeI Distribution is quite flat.


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Resurgenceexample of SARS

D

Date of onset

# N

ew c

ases

Nov 16, 02 Dec 16, 02 Jan 15, 03 Feb 14, 03 Mar 16, 03 Apr 15, 03 May 15, 03 Jun 14, 03

160

120

80

40

0

I Epidemic slows...then an infective moves to a new context.

I Epidemic discovers new pools of susceptibles:Resurgence.

I Importance of rare, stochastic events.


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The challenge

So... can a simple model produce1. broad epidemic distributions

and2. resurgence ?


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Size distributions

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 10

500

1000

1500

2000A

N(

)

R0=3

Simple modelstypically producebimodal or unimodalsize distributions.

I This includes network models:random, small-world, scale-free, ...

I Exceptions:1. Forest fire models2. Sophisticated metapopulation models


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Burning through the population

Forest fire models: [9]

I Rhodes & Anderson, 1996I The physicists approach:

if it works for magnets, itll work for people...

A bit of a stretch:1. Epidemics forest fires

spreading on 3-d and 5-d lattices.2. Claim Iceland and Faroe Islands exhibit power law

distributions for outbreaks.3. Original forest fire model not completely understood.


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Size distributions

From Rhodes and Anderson, 1996.


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Sophisticated metapopulation models

I Community based mixing: Longini (two scales).I Eubank et al.s EpiSims/TRANSIMScity

simulations.I Spreading through countriesAirlines: Germann et

al., Corlizza et al.I Vital work but perhaps hard to generalize from...I Create a simple model involving multiscale travelI Multiscale models suggested by others but not

formalized (Bailey, Cliff and Haggett, Ferguson et al.)


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Size distributions

I Very big question: What is N?I Should we model SARS in Hong Kong as spreading

in a neighborhood, in Hong Kong, Asia, or the world?I For simple models, we need to know the final size

beforehand...


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Improving simple models

Contexts and IdentitiesBipartite networks

c d ea b

2 3 41

a

b

c

d

e

contexts

individuals

unipartitenetwork

I boards of directorsI moviesI transportation modes (subway)


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Improving simple models

Idea for social networks: incorporate identity.

Identity is formed from attributes such as:I Geographic locationI Type of employmentI AgeI Recreational activities

Groups are crucial...I formed by people with at least one similar attributeI Attributes Contexts Interactions

Networks. [11]


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Infer interactions/network from identities

eca

high schoolteacher

occupation

health careeducation

nurse doctorteacherkindergarten

db

Distance makes sense in identity/context space.


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Generalized context space

100

eca b d

geography occupation age

0

(Blau & Schwartz [1], Simmel [10], Breiger [2])


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A toy agent-based model

Geographyallow people to move betweencontexts:

I Locally: standard SIR model with random mixingI discrete time simulationI = infection probabilityI = recovery probabilityI P = probability of travelI Movement distance: Pr(d) exp(d/)I = typical travel distance


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A toy agent-based model

Schematic:b=2

i j

x ij =2l=3

n=8


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Model output

I Define P0 = Expected number of infected individualsleaving initially infected context.

I Need P0 > 1 for disease to spread (independent ofR0).

I Limit epidemic size by restricting frequency of traveland/or range


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Model output

Varying :

I Transition in expected final size based on typicalmovement distance (sensible)


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Model output

Varying P0:

I Transition in expected final size based on typicalnumber of infectives leaving first group (alsosensible)

I Travel advisories: has larger effect than P0.


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Example model output: size distributions

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 10

100

200

300

400

1942

N(

)

R0=3

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 10

100

200

300

400

683

N

()

R0=12

I Flat distributions are possible for certain and P.I Different R0s may produce similar distributionsI Same epidemic sizes may arise from different R0s


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Model outputresurgence

Standard model:

0 500 1000 15000

2000

4000

6000

t

# N

ew c

ases D R

0=3


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Model outputresurgence

Standard model with transport:

0 500 1000 15000

100

200

t

# N

ew c

ases E R

0=3

0 500 1000 15000

200

400

t

# N

ew c

ases G R

0=3


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The upshot

Simple multiscale population structure+stochasticity

leads to

resurgence+broad epidemic size distributions


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Conclusions

I For this model, epidemic size is highly unpredictableI Model is more complicated than SIR but still simpleI We havent even included normal social responses

such as travel bans and self-quarantine.I The reproduction number R0 is not terribly useful.I R0, however measured, is not informative about

1. how likely the observed epidemic size was,2. and how likely future epidemics will be.

I Problem: R0 summarises one epidemic after the factand enfolds movement, the price of bananas,everything.


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Conclusions

I Disease spread highly sensitive to populationstructure

I Rare events may matter enormously(e.g., an infected individual taking an internationalflight)

I More support for controlling population movement(e.g., travel advisories, quarantine)


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Conclusions

What to do:I Need to separate movement from diseaseI R0 needs a friend or two.I Need R0 > 1 and P0 > 1 and sufficiently large

for disease to have a chance of spreading

More wondering:I Exactly how important are rare events in disease

spreading?I Again, what is N?


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Simple disease spreading models

Valiant attempts to use SIR and co. elsewhere:I Adoption of ideas/beliefs (Goffman & Newell, 1964)I Spread of rumors (Daley & Kendall, 1965)I Diffusion of innovations (Bass, 1969)I Spread of fanatical behavior (Castillo-Chvez &

Song, 2003)I Spread of Feynmann diagrams (Bettencourt et al.,

2006)


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Predicting social catastrophe isnt easy...

Greenspan Concedes Error on RegulationI . . . humbled Mr. Greenspan admitted that he had put

too much faith in the self-correcting power of freemarkets . . .

I Those of us who have looked to the self-interest oflending institutions to protect shareholders equity,myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief

I Rep. Henry A. Waxman: Do you feel that yourideology pushed you to make decisions that you wishyou had not made?

I Mr. Greenspan conceded: Yes, Ive found a flaw. Idont know how significant or permanent it is. But Ivebeen very distressed by that fact.

New York Times, October 23, 2008 ()

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Economics, Schmeconomics

Alan Greenspan (September 18, 2007):

Ive been dealing with these bigmathematical models of forecasting theeconomy ...

If I could figure out a way to determinewhether or not people are more fearfulor changing to more euphoric,

I dont need any of this other stuff.

I could forecast the economy better thanany way I know.

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Economics, SchmeconomicsGreenspan continues:The trouble is that we cant figure that out. Ive been inthe forecasting business for 50 years. Im no better than Iever was, and nobody else is. Forecasting 50 yearsago was as good or as bad as it is today. And the reasonis that human nature hasnt changed. We cant improveourselves.

Jon Stewart:

You just bummed the @*!# out of me.

wildbluffmedia.com

I From the Daily Show () (September 18, 2007)I The full inteview is here ().

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Economics, Schmeconomics

James K. Galbraith:NYT But there are at least 15,000 professional

economists in this country, and youre saying onlytwo or three of them foresaw the mortgage crisis?[JKG] Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three.

NYT What does that say about the field of economics,which claims to be a science? [JKG] Its anenormous blot on the reputation of the profession.There are thousands of economists. Most of themteach. And most of them teach a theoreticalframework that has been shown to be fundamentallyuseless.

From the New York Times, 11/02/2008 ()

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References I

[1] P. M. Blau and J. E. Schwartz.Crosscutting Social Circles.Academic Press, Orlando, FL, 1984.

[2] R. L. Breiger.The duality of persons and groups.Social Forces, 53(2):181190, 1974. pdf ()

[3] E. Hoffer.The True Believer: On The Nature Of MassMovements.Harper and Row, New York, 1951.

[4] E. Hoffer.The Passionate State of Mind: And OtherAphorisms.Buccaneer Books, 1954.

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References II

[5] W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick.A contribution to the mathematical theory ofepidemics.Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 115:700721, 1927. pdf ()

[6] W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick.A contribution to the mathematical theory ofepidemics. III. Further studies of the problem ofendemicity.Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 141(843):94122, 1927.pdf ()

[7] W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick.Contributions to the mathematical theory ofepidemics. II. The problem of endemicity.Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 138(834):5583, 1927.pdf ()

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References III

[8] J. D. Murray.Mathematical Biology.Springer, New York, Third edition, 2002.

[9] C. J. Rhodes and R. M. Anderson.Power laws governing epidemics in isolatedpopulations.Nature, 381:600602, 1996. pdf ()

[10] G. Simmel.The number of members as determining thesociological form of the group. I.American Journal of Sociology, 8:146, 1902.

[11] D. J. Watts, P. S. Dodds, and M. E. J. Newman.Identity and search in social networks.Science, 296:13021305, 2002. pdf ()

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IntroductionSimple disease spreading modelsBackgroundPredictionMore modelsToy metapopulation modelsModel outputConclusionsPredicting social catastrophe

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Biological Contagion - Principles of Complex Systems … Contagion Introduction ... ugly, everything good, especially the bad, ... 1920’s: Reed and Frost. I. 1920’s/1930’s: