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MISSION ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT

BowTie Theory

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Page 1: BowTie Theory

MISSION ANALYSIS &

RISK ASSESSMENT

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Objectives

To list down the safety culture adopted by industry

To discuss The Basic management System

To understand Bow tie Process

To discuss the term “ALARP”

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Safety Culture

Generative:

Proactive:

Calculative:

Reactive:

Pathological:

“We do things well, or we don’t do them”

“We work on the problems we still find”

“We have systems in place to manage all

hazards”

“Risk Management is important, we do a lot every time we have an

incident”

“ Who cares as long as we not caught”

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Management System

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Risk Evaluation and Management

Not separate but integral

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Risk Evaluation and Management

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Stakeholders/Clients Demand Expectations about risks have

change

Organisations to have their risk management on track.

Bow Tie helps you to organise your risk management in a way that is easily explained

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Introduction

Bow Tie is a generic methodology that can be of value to analyse and manage all kinds of major risks

Bow Tie originated in the area of Health, Safety and Environtment (HSE) and has proved it’s value for all kind of business risks.

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Risk Management Process

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Bow Tie Process

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Risk

Identify risks (What do we mean by risk?)

Risk = Probability x Consequence

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Risk Matrix

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Bow Tie

Step 1 – Identify the Hazard

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Hazards

EXAMPLE?

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Step 2 – Identify The Top Event

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Top Event

EXAMPLES:

oLoss of ContainmentoStructural FailureoDropped ObjectoLoss of ControloElectrical Shock

oFalls to same LeveloFalls to Lower LeveloOxygen DeficiencyoLoss of Separation

oContact

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Step 3 – Identify threats

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THREAT

EXAMPLES

Thermal – High TemperatureChemical – corrosionBiological -Bacteria/Marine growthRadiation – UltravioletKinetic – FatigueElectrical – High VoltageEnvironmental Condition – poor visibility/storm/eathquakeUncertainty – design unknownsHuman Factor - incompetence

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Step 4 – Identify consequences

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CONSEQUENCE

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Step 5 – Identify Threat Barriers

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Threat Barriers

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Threat Barriers

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Step 6. Identify Recovery Measures

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Recovery Measures

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Step 7. Identify Escalation Factors“How might controls fail?”, “How might their effectiveness be

undermined?”

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Step 8. Identify Escalation Factor

Controls “How might controls fail?”,

“How might their effectiveness be undermined?”

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Step 8. Identify Escalation Factor Controls

“How do we make sure controls don’t fail?”

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Escalation Factor Controls

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ALARP What is ALARP?

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Bow Tie

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Risk Management

Effective Risk Management is only possible if PEOPLE are assigned responsibilities for CONTROLS

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Risk Management

You cannot ‘buy’ risk management, you cannot delegate risk

management to a ‘group over there’, it has to become part and parcel of

your overall culture