Brazil in theIV BRICS Summit

“BRICS Partnership for Global Stability, Security and Prosperity”

March 28-29, 2012

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

Brazil in the IV BRICS Summit “BRICS Partnership for Global Stability, Security and Prosperity”

BRICS AND THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT The Fourth BRICS Summit (New Delhi, March 28-29) takes place at a significant juncture for international relations: given the economic situation in the European Union and slow recovery in the U.S., the pace of world economic growth increasingly depends on the performance of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In accordance with an IMF forecast of January 2012, the five BRICS countries will contribute with 56 percent of the world’s GDP growth in 2012. Comparatively, the contributions of the G-7 to global economic growth will be approximately 9 percent, and Latin America as a whole is expected to contribute 9.5 percent.1

Data on the BRICS countries display the relevance of the group in several dimensions: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa together occupy about 26 percent of the planet’s land, in addition to being home to 41 percent of world population and about 46 percent of its workforce. In 2011, with a combined GDP of approximately $13.5 trillion, the BRICS accounted for about 19 percent of world GDP in nominal terms and approximately 26 percent of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity.

Separately, the significant increase in intra-BRICS trade demonstrates not only the strength of their economies, but also how their interaction has stepped up. Intra-BRICS trade flows reached US$212 billion in 2010 and they are expected to exceed US$250 billion in 2011, with some estimates pointing to figures over US$500 billion by 2015. By comparison, in 2002 the volume of trade between members of the group amounted to approximately US$ 27 billion. And BRICS-Brazil trade has increased from $10 billion in 2003 to $96 billion in 2011.2

The growth of BRICS trade with the rest of the world, in turn, has been staggering. BRICS-world trade jumped from $1 trillion in 2002 to $4.3 trillion in 2008, the year of the financial crisis—more than quadrupling over six years. While this number fell to $3.5 trillion in 2009 due to the global economic crisis, BRICS-world trade reached $4.6 trillion in 2010. In 2011, this annual amount had already been surpassed by October.

EXPECTED OUTCOMES OF THE IV BRICS SUMMIT Entitled "BRICS Partnership for Stability, Security and Growth," the Fourth Summit has a timely and wide-ranging agenda. The first section of the summit will feature topics such as economic growth, peace and world security and reform of global governance institutions. The second summit section will be dedicated to issues related to sustainable development and the challenges of urbanization and biodiversity.

1http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/01/daily-chart-10

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/NEW012412A.htm 2 MDIC/SECEX/Aliceweb, da UNCTAD/ITC/Trademap e FMI, Direction of Trade Statistics, March 2012.

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

Of note, the Fourth Summit offers promising possibilities for BRICS coordination, as it will take place at a significant time in global environmental discussions: following the Durban Climate Change Conference (COP 17) and prior to the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) and the meeting of the Conference on Biodiversity (CBD) in India.

Russia’s recent accession to the WTO also opens new prospects for increased intra-BRICS cooperation. A meeting of BRICS Trade Ministers will also be held at the Fourth Summit.

The summit is expected to encourage dialogue and concerted action on international matters, in addition to strengthening the voice of the BRICS countries, particularly on economic and financial issues. Moreover, the summit may provide political impetus to cooperate on development of projects in strategic sectors such as health, science and technology.

Beyond intergovernmental discussions, the meetings will also provide an opportunity for enhancing civil society interaction through the Business Forum and the Academic Forum, already at their III edition.

ROLE OF THE BRICS Although relatively new, the BRICS group has rapidly established itself on the global stage and shown that it can achieve increasingly broader consensus. More than 25 joint events were held throughout 2011, showing the vitality of the group and its coordination capacity. Ministerial meetings were held in the areas of finance, agriculture, health and trade, among others, which gave rise to statements reflecting the cooperation and shared vision of the BRICS countries.

The upcoming Fourth Summit is expected to include a review of the extensive cooperation that has been developed pursuant to the Sanya Plan of Action, as well as approving a new Plan of Action.

In particular, the BRICS play an important role in the G-20. The meeting of Heads of State and Government of BRICS member countries—a Brazilian initiative—at the margin of the Cannes Summit last November has strengthened coordination in economics and finance.

Once the reform of the Bretton Woods institutions is completed, China, India and Brazil will be among the top ten quota holders in the IMF. As a result, BRICS members will have their role further enhanced, thus becoming indispensable players in the system.

Politically, the simultaneous presence of the five BRICS countries in the UN Security Council (UNSC) in 2011 strengthened the intra-Group dialogue on the international peace and security agenda.

BRICS BACKGROUND The BRIC acronym coined by Goldman Sachs in 2001 has become popular as a symbol of international change. As forecast by Goldman Sachs, Brazil, Russia, India and China would indeed hold a position of growing importance in the global economy. A 2001 study by Goldman Sachs entitled “Building Better Global Economic BRICs” anticipated that Brazil, Russia, India and China would be among the six largest economies in 2050. A follow-up Goldman Sachs

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

study in 2003 predicted that the combined economies of the four countries would surpass the G-6 (United States, Japan, Germany, France, UK and Italy) in 2040 and that the BRICs contribution to the growth of world economy would reach 50 percent in the 2040-2049 decade and 60 percent in the following decade (2050-2059). The study estimated that in 2050, the ranking of the largest economies would be led by China, followed by the United States, India, Japan, Brazil and Russia, all surpassing the largest economies in Europe. In 2009, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2003 projections due to the rate of the BRICs economic growth, which was faster than originally forecast. The new projections indicated that the BRICs would catch up with the G-7 in 2032 - seven years earlier than foreseen in the 2003 study - and that Brazil would be the fourth largest economy in the world in 2050. As the market analyses were confirmed, a favorable environment for the four countries to seek dialogue, identify common interests and coordinate actions was created. In 2006, with the first meeting of Foreign Ministers at the margin of the 61st UNGA, BRICs transformed from solely an acronym that identified four ascending countries to a diplomatic-political entity - BRIC. At the time the Heads of State and Government of Brazil, Russia, India and China held the First BRIC3 Summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009, they were faced with the complex scenario of the 2008 crisis and sought to identify common interests that would allow their countries to strengthen their voices in the international arena. By organizing the Second Summit in 2010, Brazil prioritized the identification of intra-BRICs sectoral cooperation initiatives as well as dialogue with the civil society, such as think tanks and entrepreneurs. The Brazilian contribution was essential to furthering the agenda of intra-BRIC cooperation and developing partnerships in areas that transcend intergovernmental dialogue.

The Third Summit organized by China in 2011 in Sanya substantially deepened the institutional process of the group and its cooperation agenda and also formalized the accession of South Africa to the Group, thus broadening the geographic representation of the BRICS.

3 The Group was named BRIC, since South Africa was not a member at the time.

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

BRICS TRADE RELATIONS Brazilian trade with the other BRIC countries grew from US$ 7.64 billion in 2002 to US$ 96.13 billion in 2011.

Trade Balance – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – BRICS (US$ million FOB)

Year Exports to BRICS

(A)

Share relative to

total exports (%)

Imports from BRICS

(B)

Share relative to

total imports (%)

Trade Flow

(A+B)

Surplus

(A-B)

2002 4,905 8.1 2,737 5.8 7,642 2,169 2003 7,321 10 3,391 7 10,712 3,930 2004 8,790 9.1 5,343 8.5 14,132 3,447 2005 12,261 10.3 7,621 10.4 19,883 4,640 2006 14,247 10.3 10,842 11.9 25,089 3,406 2007 17,206 10.7 17,023 14.1 34,229 183 2008 24,033 12.1 27,715 16.0 51,748 -3,682 2009 28,547 18.7 19,948 15.6 48,495 8,600 2010 39,740 19.7 32,502 17.9 72,242 7,239 2011 53,412 20.9 42,726 18.9 96,138 10,687

Source: Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (Secex/MDIC), March 2012

Brazilian Trade Balance with the BRICS

Source: Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (Secex/MDIC), March 2012 Note: for numeric figures on the graph above, thousands are noted by (.)

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: RIO+20 Rio de Janeiro will host the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) from June 20-22, 2012, two decades after the Conference on Environment and Development took place in the same city in 1992 (Rio 92). The mandate of the conference, as defined by the UN General Assembly in Resolution 64/236, includes addressing new and emerging sustainable development challenges and topics related to “green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication” and “institutional sustainable development framework.”

The Brazilian Perspective

Rio+20 will focus on sustainable development beyond solely environmental topics. The challenge of sustainability represents an exceptional opportunity for changing an economic development model that has yet to fully include concerns about social development and environmental protection. To Brazil, the discussions in Rio+20 should serve to bolster the connection between sustainable development and economic reality, driving commitments to sustainable development.

To enhance and disseminate the concept of the “green economy,” Brazil proposes that Rio+20 address the “inclusive green economy,” highlighting the importance of social considerations and including the purpose of the conference (“green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication”).

The “inclusive green economy” is already incorporated in public policies of many countries, including programs such as income transfers; activities to promote environmental conservation or recovery; support for segments of the population that get their income from solid waste recycling; dissemination of ethical agricultural practices using technologies accessible to small farms and family farmers; and training in more energy efficient technologies.

BRICS TIMELINE: 2006-2012

2012 March 28-29 – IV BRICS Summit, New Delhi

February 25 – BRICS Ministers of Finance parallel to G20 Meeting, Mexico City

February 15-16 – BRICS Development Bank technicians meeting, Kumarakom, Kerala, India

January 19 – BRICS informal meeting during the 130th session of the Executive Council of the World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

2011 December 14 – BRICS Ministers of Foreign Trade, Geneva

December 13 – BRICS Working Group on Access to Medication during the 29th Meeting of the Manager Committee, UNAIDS (Geneva, 13 December)

December 2 – Meeting to discuss the establishment of the Contact Group for Economic and Business Affairs of the BRICS, Beijing

December 2-3 – BRICS Conference of Twin Cities and Local Governments, Sanya

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

November 24 – BRICS Meeting of Deputy Foreign Ministers on the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow

November 3 – Meeting of BRICS Heads of State and Government at the margin of the G-20, Cannes

October 30 – II Meeting of BRICS Ministers of Agriculture and Agrarian Development, Chengdu

October 29 – II Meeting of the Working Group for Agricultural Cooperation, Chengdu

September 25 – III Meeting of BRICS Heads of Statistical Institutes, Beijing

September 23 – VI Meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers at the margin of the 66th UNGA, New York

September 22 – Meeting of BRICS Ministers and Central Bank Governors, at the margin of the Annual Meeting of the IMF and World Bank, Washington, D.C.

September 21 – II BRICS International Conference on Competition, Beijing

September 20 – Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases, at the margin of the UN High Level Meeting on Non-communicable Diseases, New York

September 15 – Meeting of BRICS Senior Officials in Science, Technology & Innovation, Dalian

August 3-6 – Meeting of the BRICS Working Group of Experts on Agriculture, Beijing

July 11 – Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers, Beijing

June 17 – Meeting of Presidents of the BRICS Development Banks, at the margin of the XV International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, and signing of a Memorandum of Understanding, St. Petersburg

June 14 – II BRICS Cooperatives Forum, Beijing

May 19 – Meeting of BRICS heads of delegation at the margin of the II G20 Parliamentary Summit, Seoul

May 18 – Meeting of BRICS Twin-cities partnerships, which formalized cooperation between Rio de Janeiro, St. Petersburg, Mumbai and Quingdao, Quingdao

May 17 – Meeting of Health Ministers of the BRICS, at the margin of the 64th World Health Assembly, Geneva

April 14 – III BRICS Summit, Sanya

April 13-14 – II BRICS Business Meeting, Sanya

April 13 – Meeting of the BRICS Development Banks and Financial Seminar, Sanya

April 13 – Meeting of BRICS Trade Ministers, Sanya

March 24-25 – II BRICS "Think Tanks" Seminar, Beijing

February 19 – Meeting of BRICS Finance Ministers at the margin of the G-20, Paris

January 19-21 – Coordination Meeting of the Statistical Institutes, Beijing

2010 November 29-December 1 – II Meeting of Heads of Statistical Institutes of the BRIC, Rio de

Janeiro

October 11- 12 – BRIC Meeting of Development Banks Representatives, London

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

October 5-6 – BRIC International Meeting of Officials Responsible for High Level Security Affairs, Sochi

September 21 – V Ministerial BRIC Meeting at the margin of the 65th Session of UN General Assembly, New York

April 15 – II BRIC Summit, Brasilia

April 15 – II Meeting of High Level Representatives on Security, Brasilia

April 15-16 – BRIC Cooperatives Forum, Brasilia

April 14 – BRIC + IBSA Business Forum, Rio de Janeiro

April 14-15 – BRIC Think-Tanks Seminar

April 13 – BRIC Meeting of Development Banks Representatives, Rio de Janeiro

April 13 – BRIC Sherpas Meeting

March 26 – Meeting of BRIC Agriculture Ministers, Moscow

March 22-23 – Seminar "An Agenda for the BRICs," organized by the municipality of Rio de Janeiro

March 1-12 – I Exchange Program Magistrates BRIC, Brasilia

February 22 – I Meeting of BRIC Heads of Statistical Institutes at the margin of the UN Statistical Committee, New York

January 14 – Meeting of BRIC Financial Sherpas in parallel to the G-20, Mexico City

2009 September 24 – Meeting of BRIC Ministers, side event to the 64th UN General Assembly,

New York

September 4 – Meeting of BRIC Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in previous coordination to the meeting of their G-20 counterparts

June 15-16 – I BRIC Summit, Yekaterinburg

May 28-30 – Meeting of Senior Officials Responsible for Security Issues, Moscow

March 13 – II Meeting of the BRIC Finance Ministers, Horsham

2008 November 7 – I Meeting of the BRIC Finance Ministers, Sao Paulo

September – III Meeting of the BRIC Foreign Ministers, side event to the 63rd UN General Assembly, New York

July 9 – Meeting of the BRIC Heads of State/Government, during the G-8 Summit, Hokkaido

May 15-16 – I Meeting of the BRIC Foreign Ministers, Yekaterinburg

March 10-11 – I Meeting of the BRIC Foreign Deputy-Ministers, Rio de Janeiro

2006-2007 November 23, 2007 – Publication of the paper “BRICs and Beyond” by Jim O’Neill of

Goldman Sachs

September 24, 2007 – II Meeting of the BRIC Foreign Ministers, side event to the 62nd UN General Assembly, New York

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

September 2006 – I Meeting of the BRIC Foreign Ministers, side event to the 61st UN General Assembly, New York

Background October 1, 2003 – Publication of the paper “Dreaming with BRICs: the path to 2050,” by

Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman

November 30, 2001 – Publication of the paper “Building Better Global Economic BRICs,” by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs

BRAZIL’S HEAD OF STATE BIOGRAPHY President Dilma Vana Rousseff

President Dilma Rousseff was elected President of the Federative Republic of Brazil on October 31, 2010 and took office on January 1, 2011. For detailed profile: http://www.brasil.gov.br/sobre/brazil/president-of-the-republic/biography/br_model1?set_language=en

BRAZIL – KEY FACTS

Official Name: Federative Republic of Brazil

Capital: Brasília (inaugurated in 1960)

Official Language: Portuguese

Geographic Size: 8,514,876.6 square kilometers, making Brazil the world’s fifth largest country in terms of land size (source: Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics - IBGE)

Number of Bordering Countries: 10

Population: 190.7 million, making Brazil the fifth most populous country (IBGE 2010 Censusr)

Population Density: 22.4 inhabitants per square kilometer (IBGE)

Urban Population: 84.7 percent (source: IBGE – 2010 Census)

Age Distribution: Less than 14 years: approx. 25.5 percent; 15-59 years: approx. 64.5 percent; more than 60 years: approx. 10 percent (IBGE )

Life Expectancy: Overall: 73.7 years; Men: 70 years; Women: 77.5 years (IBGE)

Ethnic Groups: White: 48.2 percent; Mestizo: 44.2 percent; Black: 6.9 percent; Asians/Indigenous: 0.7 percent (IBGE). Note: Brazil has the largest population of African descent outside of Africa.

Religions: Catholic: 73.6 percent; Evangelical: 15.4 percent; Spiritist: 1.64 percent; No religion: 7.35 percent; Other: 2.01 percent (IBGE)

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

Brazilian Economy

Global Economic Ranking: Sixth

Per Capita GDP: US$ 10,960 (Source: Central Bank of Brazil and IBGE)

Economically Active Population: 95.5 million (IBGE)

Currency: Real (R$)

Global Manufacturing Rankings: Fifth largest car manufacturer; fourth largest aircraft manufacturer; largest manufacturer of commercial jets of up to 120 seats

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Year US$ (billion) Annual Variation

2010 2,089.8 7.5%

2009 1,598.4 -0.6%

2008 1,650.7 5.2%

2007 1,366.5 6.1%

2006 1,088.8 4.0%

2005 882.7 3.2%

2004 663.7 5.7%

2003 553.6 1.1%

2002 504.4 2.7%

2001 553.7 1.3%

(Source: Central Bank of Brazil)

Inflation (Consumer Price Index – IPCA)

Year Percentage

2011 6.50%

2010 5.91%

2009 4.31%

2008 5.90%

2007 4.46%

2006 3.14%

2005 5.69%

2004 7.60%

2003 9.30%

2002 12.53%

2001 7.67%

(Source: IBGE)

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

Exports

Year Total

2011 US$ 256 billion

2010 US$ 201.9 billion

2009 US$ 152.2 billion

2008 US$ 197.9 billion

2007 US$ 160.6 billion

2006 US$ 137.5 billion

2005 US$ 118.5 billion

Note: Brazil is the leading global exporter of ethanol, coffee, orange juice, beef, tobacco, chicken meat and sugar. (Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade)

Imports

Year Total

2011 US$ 226.2 billion

2010 US$ 181.6 billion

2009 US$ 127.6 billion

2008 US$ 173.2 billion

2007 US$ 120.6 billion

2006 US$ 91.3 billion

2005 US$ 73.8 billion

(Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade)

Trade Surplus

Year Total

2011 US$ 29.8 billion

2010 US$ 20.3 billion

2009 US$ 24.6 billion

2008 US$ 24.7 billion

2007 US$ 40.0 billion

2006 US$ 46.4 billion

2005 US$ 44.9 billion

(Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade)

IV BRICS Summit 28-29 March 2012

Foreign Direct Investment

Year Total

2011 US$ 66.7 billion

2010 US$ 48.4 billion

2009 US$ 25.9 billion

2008 US$ 45.1 billion

2007 US$ 34.6 billion

2006 US$ 22.2 billion

2005 US$ 66.7 billion

(Source: Central Bank of Brazil)

KEY CONTACTS Brasília Flávia Ribas On behalf of SECOM Secretariat for Social Communication of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil +55 61 3411 4914 flavia.ribas@cdn.com.br

New York Melissa Banas On behalf of SECOM Secretariat for Social Communication of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil +1-212-453-2231 melissa.banas@fleishman.com