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Bridging Austin's Economic Divide

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Brian Kelsey's presentation at the UT Opportunity Forum on September 12, 2014.

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Page 1: Bridging Austin's Economic Divide
Page 2: Bridging Austin's Economic Divide

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• Population change (nom) #10• Population growth (%) #2• Job change (nom) #8• Job growth (%) #1• GRP change (nom) #21• GRP growth (%) #2

Austin rank among U.S. metros since 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs are from July 2000 to July 2014. GRP is from 2001 to 2012 (2000 not available). Growth rankings are among large MSAs.

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% Total Job Growth 2013-2014

Average Wage2013

Affordable HousingMax Monthly Cost

High School Diploma 36% $40,033 $1,001

No High School Diploma 34% $22,431 $561

Bachelor's Degree 20% $79,766 $1,994

Some College 8% $45,663 $1,142

Graduate or Prof Degree 2% $87,813 $2,195

70% of job growth occurring in occupations that can only support ≤ $1K monthly housing cost

Austin-Round Rock MSASource: Employment data, including 2014 projection, from EMSI. Some College category includes certificates, associate’s degree,

and people w/ higher education credits but no completed postsecondary degree. Maximum monthly cost for affordable housing is calculated at 30% average wage. Average wage is a weighted average calculated with jobs by five-digit SOC occupations and average

hourly wage estimates for all jobs across all experience levels—i.e. entry-level wages are usually much lower than average wages.

Page 4: Bridging Austin's Economic Divide

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HighlandSt Johns Heritage Hills

Pleasant Valley Parker LaneNorth University

Source: Zillow, June 2014. Data is the median of the rental price for homes listed for rent on Zillow. Not representative of the universe of rental stock because not all residential rental properties are listed on Zillow. Maps from city-data.com & neighborhood association websites.

Median rent < $1K per month

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PopulationAge 25+

2012

Pop GrowthAvg Annual2000-2012

Job GrowthAvg Annual2001-2014

Job Growth“Boom” Year

2013-2014

Bachelor’s Degree 321,536 11,265 3,488 7,424

Some College 332,076 9,599 1,694 2,856

High School Diploma 227,965 6,278 5,418 13,366

Graduate or Prof Degree 155,522 5,004 797 829

No High School Diploma 139,522 1,893 5,346 12,731

The Human Capital is getting crowded

Austin-Round Rock MSASource: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3

table P37. Employment data, including 2014 projection, from EMSI. Some College category includes certificates, associate’s degree, and people w/ higher education credits but no completed postsecondary degree.

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Hispanic

Black

White

Asian

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

41%

61%

80%

81%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates, tables C15002. Some College category includes certificates, associate’s degree, and people w/ higher education credits but no completed postsecondary degree.

% of Pop Age 25+ in Austin-Round Rock MSA With Some College +

Disparity in educational attainment is shutting out large % of residents from living wage jobs

United StatesAsian 70%

White 62%Black 51%

Hispanic 36%

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates, tables C15002. Some College category includes certificates, associate’s degree, and people w/ higher education credits but no completed postsecondary degree.

% of Pop Age 25+ in Austin-Round Rock MSA With Bachelor’s Degree +

Disparity in educational attainment is shutting out large % of residents from living wage jobs

Hispanic

Black

White

Asian

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

17%

23%

49%

67%

United StatesAsian 50%

White 32%Black 18%

Hispanic 13%

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Employment2013Q2 ATX

Average Wage2013Q2 ATX

Affordable HousingMax Monthly Cost

Average Wage2013Q2 TX

Asian 40,044 $69,096 $1,727 $62,808

White 509,218 $61,284 $1,532 $53,496

Black 83,811 $38,904 $973 $37,848

Hispanic 226,050 $38,388 $960 $37,212

Segregation will continue to increase with rising cost of living unless gaps are closed

Austin-Round Rock MSASource: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Maximum monthly

cost for affordable housing is calculated at 30% average wage.