“ “BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN SEASONAL BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST AND DECISION MAKERS IN CLIMATE FORECAST AND DECISION MAKERS IN

AGRICULTURE”AGRICULTURE”

PROJECT LAUNCHPROJECT LAUNCH Dusit Hotel, July 27, 2005Dusit Hotel, July 27, 2005

ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED BY ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED BY

THE PROJECT IN THE THE PROJECT IN THE

PHILIPPINES PHILIPPINES

GRACIANO P. YUMUL, JR.GRACIANO P. YUMUL, JR.Officer-in-Charge, PAGASAOfficer-in-Charge, PAGASA

During El Niño EpisodeDuring El Niño Episode During La Niña EpisodeDuring La Niña Episode 

               

• extended dry season

• early end of rainy season

• weak monsoon activity less number of tropical cyclones

• above normal sea level pressure

• above normal air temperatures

drier weather drier weather conditionsconditions

• short dry season

• early onset of rainy season

• increased cloudiness

• strong monsoon activity more number of tropical cyclones

• below normal sea level pressure

wetter weather conditionswetter weather conditions

Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on general influences of ENSO on Philippine climategeneral influences of ENSO on Philippine climate

Objectives:Objectives:1.1. To improve the capacity of PAGASA to develop To improve the capacity of PAGASA to develop

and deliver SCF for the case study regions in and deliver SCF for the case study regions in the Philippinesthe Philippines

2.2. To distil key practical and methodological To distil key practical and methodological features of economic and psychological features of economic and psychological approaches to valuing SCFapproaches to valuing SCF

3.3. To estimate the potential economic value of To estimate the potential economic value of farm-level and policy, or industry-level, case farm-level and policy, or industry-level, case studies in the Philippinesstudies in the Philippines

4.4. To identify those factors leading to a gap To identify those factors leading to a gap between actual and potential values of SCFbetween actual and potential values of SCF

5.5. To develop and implement strategies to To develop and implement strategies to better match forecasts with decision maker’s better match forecasts with decision maker’s needsneeds

ISABELA

LEYTE

BUKIDNON

Case Study Case Study Sites in the Sites in the PhilippinesPhilippines

Project Outputs:Project Outputs:

1.1. Communication and dissemination Communication and dissemination strategiesstrategies

2.2. Enhanced research capacityEnhanced research capacity

3.3. Economic benefitEconomic benefit

4.4. Social benefitSocial benefit

5.5. Environmental benefitEnvironmental benefit