Bridging Up Energy Demad-Supply Gap and Economic Growth in Pakistan

7/30/2019 Bridging Up Energy Demad-Supply Gap and Economic Growth in Pakistan

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Bridging upEnergy

Demand-Supply Gap andEconomic Growth inPakistan

Engr. Dr. Nazir Hussain

GB-PWD Gilgit-Baltistan


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INDEXS.No. Content Page No.

I Table of contents2 Introduction

3 Description

4 General Analysis

5 Current Information

6 Discussions

7 Conclusions

8 Conclusion

9 Bibliography


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1. INTRODUCTIONWorld population is increasing exponentially but the energy resources arediminishing with respective to population growth rate. World energy

economics indicates that energy consumption is the barometer of economicgrowth of any country. Regional population statistics depicts that population ofSouth Asian countries, African continent are increasing by leaps and bound.Despite having one child policy chinas population is shooting up and afternext thirty years India will supersede China. China is exploiting its manpowerand despite having lower energy consumption its economy is growingconsiderably. There is a tendency among the countries of the world for acorrelation between income growth and growth in energy consumption.Although the correlation is not perfect but some relationship holds good formany countries. The ratio of energy consumption to GDP is defined as theenergy intensity of the economy. The GDP grows through the increase in

population and results in an increase in energy consumption also. Therefore,growth of GDP virtually parallels that of energy consumption.

Energy is life line for economic growth of any country. Energy is the propellerof industrial and agricultural sector. The energy mix supply indicates that weuse 43% of energy generated by oil, 38% from natural gas and 10% HNP,and coal just 5%. Despite having fourth largest coal reserve in the world weare still importing over 2.5 million tons on annual basis. The gas reserve isunfortunately depleting by dint of that power shortage is expected to be littleover 5250MW by 2010. Gas and energy shortages are attributed to shuttingdown certain businesses. Pakistan current (2012), capacity is around21000MW of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of rest is thermalfueled primarily by gas and oil. Per capita energy consumption of Pakistan isestimated 14million BTU (= 0.0003528ktoe=4103.4kwh) to put it inperspective the world average per capita energy use is about 65million BTUEnergy access in Pakistan is only 60% and 40% of the Pakistani householdsare deprived from energy on the other hand renewable energy resources suchas hydro, wind, solar are perhaps underutilized and under developed today asPakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources.

Pakistan being the sixth populous country of the world and having highest

population growth rate among SAARC countries more migration from villageto cities and increase stress on environment, recovery phase from thedamages done by October, 2005, Kashmir earthquake, devastating Pakistanflood damages of August, 2010, global economic recession, energy crisis andthe war against terror had further devastated the economy and stuntedgrowth. There is a strong correlation between GNP and energy consumptionand economic growth. The energy-out put ratios for a number country alsoshow common trend that till gaining industrial maturity energy-output ratios,goes up in the early stages of economic growth that declines slightly andultimately settles down considerably. The considerable increase may beattributed to industrialization, urbanization and substitution of commercial for

noncommercial fuel. Researches show that energy saving in the developingcountries cannot be achieved unless GNP is proportionately reduced


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paripassu with energy consumption. Power shortages are believed to be thebiggest constraint to growth costing the economy 3-4 percent current additionof 3000MW in national grid, and many new projects to come on line next year

2. DESCRIPTION

Power consumption is an indicator of development of any country.So in order to provide adequate sustenance to destitute masses, supply to ourindustries, booming the shattered economy from dominos to dynamos, tobring all barren lands under cultivation, help improving environmentalconditions we have to capture and optimize energy resources.

The energy growth rate should increase with the growth of population. By dintof rising of oil prices in the world oil market for sustainable developmentrenewable energy resources have to exploit and potential sites should beexplored well in time prior facing the music of energy crisis. Pakistan despitehaving enormous coal reserves and potential sites for harnessing

environmentally friendly hydroelectricity sources has become an energy deficitcountry and relying on imported furnace oil, and rapidly depleting gasreserves. Utilization of non conventional energy resources like wind, solar,photovoltaic, biomass, geothermal, agricultural residue, tidal energy, ethanegas (C2H6) etc. is imperative for sustainable development

Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis Non construction of hydro-electric dam after Tarbela (1965) Rising up of oil prices after Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, Politicizing IPPs, Non exploiting existing coal and gas reserves

Non exploration of potential hydel project sites Establishment of Nuclear Power Plant and NSG limitations, Import of energy and geo-political condition, Political cases against IPPs and RPPs. Import of gas from Iran and Tajikistan (CASA-100) and international

politics. Political instability in the country

3. GENERAL ANALYSISThrowing a birds eye view on the world population statistics it can beconstrued that Pakistan is at serial number sixth in the more populous

countries of the world where as its population is growing at the rate of 1.57%per annum.When we see the list of richer countries of the world then Pakistan falls in thelist of low income countries, and from the prospect of energy consumption itsper capita daily consumption is merely 438.261KWH/capita per day. WhenPakistan came into being in 1947, its population was just 315million that hasnow grew up to 187.343 million in sixty four years that is almost 83.19%bulging out, and by the end of 2100 the projected population will be 748.407million, despite the strenuous efforts of subsequent governments as thepopulation growth rate has lowered from 2.17%(2000) to 1.57% (2011).

Statistics shows that the birth rate 32.11.1000 population (2000) hasdecreased to 24.81/1000 population (2011) and death rate per 1000


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population has also decreased as 9.51/1000 population (2000) to 6.92/1000population (2011). Due to better health cover the life expectancy at birth hasincreased for 61.07years (2000) to65.63 years (2011). The GDP growth rateis also encouraging as it is moving up from 3.10% (2000) to 4.8% (2011), witha positive trend of GDP per capita (PPP), US$2000(2000) by US$2500(2011).

Researches show that if Pakistan is to register itself in the rank of countries ofeconomically moderate stable countries then its economic growth should be6.5 to 7.0 % during the next 15 years, i.e. when the projected population willbe 255736063 in 2030. The total electricity consumption during 2005 was67.05 billion kWh, and during 2008 it was 68.55billion kWh. The energysupply mix indicates that natural gas (48.5%), is the top most rank followed byoil(30%), then comes hydro electricity (12.6%) and coal (7.3%), where assupply of LPG, nuclear etc. is just 1.50% of the total mass cake.

Pakistan has an identified potential of 60,000 MW hydro electricity and the

coal reserves of Pakistan is estimated to 183 billion tons while the presentpercentage rate of excavation is only 3.20 billion tons annually. Mand,Mubarak writes, These energy deposits can generate 50,000MW, ofelectricity and 100million barrels of oil every year for the next 500years. Thisenergy reserve is 100 times the energy reserve in the Middle East, Iran, andIraq combined. As per EIA, International Energy Statistics Pakistan domesticgas production is 1400(billion cubic feet)(2010) and consumption of the samequantity, where as the proved reserve is 30 billion cubic feet, and totalproduction of oil is 58.36 (thousand barrels per day) (2009), and netconsumption of 397 (thousands barrels per day) (2009), and we have toimport 338.64 (thousand barrels per day), where as the proved reserve is only0.34 (billion barrels), where as a big chunk of state exchequer is consumed inimporting oil and gas.

Pakistan is one of the sixth populous countries of the world as depicted below.As per IEA (2011), sources per capita energy consumption of Pakistan is onlower side compared to other countries having enormous population.Pakistan in one of the richest resource countries in the world.But the entireresources are either not being exploited or misused. The vision of water forfood and development is bleak. Projects of national interests have beencapped due to inter provincial politics. On the other side major water projects

were initiated without taking the affectees to confidence. Thorough planningand technical feasibility is seldom carried out. Keeping the enormous waterresources in the Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan our development rate, powercapacity, and food reserve conditions are precarious. No dam after Tarbela(1965) has been constructed rather all precious time has been spent on ifsand buts of construction of both Kalabagh and Basha- Diamer dams. It isindeed injustice with the poor masses of the country. If we take the worldstatistics 335 dams having height more than 60 meters and 35 number damsof height more than 150m are under construction. In our neighboringcountries, China, India and Iran, the statistics is 103, 23 and 43 numbersrespectively. The era of persistent injection of poison of self-centrism and

provincial prejudices into the body politics of the unfortunate beloved countryshould be ceased now. Present Government deserves all appreciations for


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breaking the ice and initiating raising of Mangla dam by 30 feet, constructionof Satpara dam, GomalZum dam, Mirani dam and Diamer-Basha dam. Theintention of the President on construct of both Kalabagh and Basha dams isworth commendable and encouraging. Both the opponents and proponents ofKalabagh dam are having cock fights. It is high time to banish such melee,

which is undermining the very fabric of our sovereignty. They are twisting thehydrological statistics through fudging figures in their own favors for politicalgains. It is not a political game but an issue of national importance, nationalinterest should be supreme, and our existence is with the nation. On the otherhand the think thank of the country should not only stuck to Kalabagh dam(KBD) but also ferret out other potential sites for our water resourcedevelopment.Water is renewable resource unlike oil, gas etc. Why dont we use the peculiartopography of Gilgit-Baltistan and utilize the God gifted resources in publico-probono. We have the technology of inflatable dam, which is widely in practicein Japan, Britain, Germany, Netherlands, and Norway etc. This type of flood

barrier is used for controlling water levels during flood season. The floodbarrier consisting of three huge balloons made of rubberized cloth, which fillswith water and air when flood is imminent. The inflatable dam is maximum 60minutes and that of drainage is 180 minutes where as thickness of fabric is16mm with minimum tire span of 35 years and probability of its failure is1:10,000 years. This is an advanced form of design and construction. Despitethat it is cost effective. Consultants can be engaged on design and constructapproach. We can construct such dams at following reaches of the Indus:-(1) Sermik, (2) Mehdiabad (3) Gole (4) Nar, (5) Kharfocho, (6) Katzara, (7)Tungus, (8) Yulbo, (9) Bunji, (10) Rakhiot, (11) Basha, (12) Dasu,(13) pattan,(14) Thakot,(15) Azadpattan, (16) Kohala etc. Where as is Gilgit-Baltistan thistype of dam can be constructed on several reaches of following tributaries ofthe mighty Indus: (a) River Shyoke (b) River Shigar (c) River Hunza, (d) RiverGhizer, (e) River Gilgit, (f) River Astore. Furthermore northern parts ofKhyber-Pakhtonkhowa and Kashmir may be other potential sites.The significant benefit of inflatable dam is that we can adjust the height as perour own requirements. We can store flood water and required water isreleased harnessing enormous amount of electricity and release the storedwater during lean period for irrigation purposes. This will help reducesedimentation problem. Massive floods are partly due to deforestation on theupper reaches of rivers; the leaf canopy of forests can retain 10-20% of

rainfall and divert 50% of water underground.


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4. CURRENT INFORMATION

Fig: 1, Pakistan Energy deficit scenario(1998-2011)

Fig: 2, GDP Growth Rate (1999-2010).

5. DICUSSIONStrategies to cope up electricity Crisis

Establishment of IPPs(Imported Power Plants) after 1993,

-1573.92

-646.71-774.57

-2543.26

-1825.35-1911.39

-2281.44

-2650.70

-3016.19

-3380.49

-4000.00

-3500.00

-3000.00

-2500.00

-2000.00

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pakistan Energy Crisis Scenarion (1998-2012) in MWs based

on 124W/c/day

3.1

4.8

3.3

5.5

6.1

6.6 6.6

5.3

2.7

4.3

4.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP-Real Growth Rate (%)


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Hiring Rental Power Plants (RPPs) including Power ship from Turkey- acostly solution.

Import of electricity from Tajikistan, Import of gas from Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan Construction of Nuclear Power plant-Chashma-II,III & IV

Speeding up construction of Thar Coal Power Plant Exploiting the hydel resources Reversing the thermal: hydel ratio. Hammering out political difference for construction of more dams. Finalization of negotiation for funding the identified and feasible hydel

projects. Capacity building of power companies to overcome line losses problems etc. The wattage of per capita energy consumption should be in line with the

world average that should be increased gradually

6. CONCLUSIONS

Consumption of energy indicates the economic growth. Population is growingand energy generation rate is lagging behind the population growth rate,consequently there are resource constraints. Existing both conventional andnon conventional energy resources should be exploited and dependency ofthermal energy generation should be minimized. Pakistan despite havingenormous hydel potential in Gilgit-Baltistan(60,000MW) and Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa(18698MW), and coal reserves (50,000 MW), located inTharparkar Sind, is still dependent on costly and environmentally unfeasibleand economically un viable, less lucrative for investment ,furnace oil, thatdefective planning has to be streamlined while formulating energy policy.Energy shortage is on one side causing unrest and even creating law andorder situation and on the other side is badly affecting the economicgrowth.The capital cost for construction of hydro electricity is 2.3-2.5US$/kwh,and cost of power generation is nominal-3-4US cents/kwh, capital cost of gasis 3-5 US$/kwh and generation cost is 7-8US$/kwh, capital cost of furnace oilis 1.5-1.6US$/kwh but the cost to be incurred on power generation is 9-10US$/kwh, but coal gasified power capital cost is only 1US$/kwh and powerproduction cost will be 2-3 US cents/kwh.

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Bridging Up Energy Demad-Supply Gap and Economic Growth in Pakistan