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Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

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Page 1: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson

Microsoft

August 4, 2004

Page 2: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool

or Etch-a-Sketch?

Butler Lampson

Microsoft

August 4, 2004

Page 3: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Why tablets?

Mobility Reading Pen

Pointing Writing Sketching Gestures

Make the computer natural

Page 4: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

History

Dynabook (1968) Workslate, TRS-80 (1982) Lectrice (1996) – originally for reading; $8K Pen Windows/ Go Palm / Pocket PC Win CE Clio

Page 5: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Alan Kay’s Dynabook mockup (1968)

Page 6: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Convergent Workslate (1982)

Page 7: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

TRS-80 Model 100 (1983)

Page 8: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

DEC SRC Lectrice (1994, $8k)

Page 9: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Lessons from past failures

A tablet must be a full PC. Why? Must have volume to keep cost down Users need to run full apps Don’t want two >$1k computers Don’t want to carry two bulky things

Lampson’s law: Devices must differ in size by 5x Watch Cellphone Tablet/laptop Desktop

Being a full PC is hard And it’s a moving target

Page 10: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Slogans

The power of the PC, the simplicity of paper Grab and go Think in ink Every laptop is a tablet

Tablet PC, the first computer good enough to criticize—Alan Kay

Page 11: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Prerequisites for success

Hardware Display: ≥120 dpi, good viewing Digitizer: ≥120 dpi, hover Wireless networking Ultralight laptop engineering Cycles and RAM for handwriting, speech

Software UI compatibility: all kbd, mouse actions

▬ No changes to base platform Handwriting recognition Cleartype for reading Decent scribbling application

Page 12: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Today’s tablets

NEC: Excellent slate, except for battery life Motion: Good slate, part of good system Toshiba: Excellent convertible

Page 13: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

NEC Litepad (2003, 2.2 lb)

Page 14: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Motion M1400 (2004, 3 lb)—Grab and Go

Page 15: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Toshiba M200 (2004, 4 lb)—Convertible

Page 16: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Natural UI: The guessing game

Computer UI: My way or the highway Input is unambiguous It’s your fault if the wrong thing happens

Natural UI: Ambiguous—machine must guess What if it guesses wrong?

New requirements I can tell what it guessed I can undo any state changes from a wrong guess I can say what I wanted in another way

▬ Perhaps clunkier, but less ambiguous

Page 17: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Lessons from V1 Tablet PCs

The biggest threat to development: Creativity Keeps people from focusing on essentials

UI design is hard Even the best people need many iterations Example: TIP

It’s easy to overreach The guessing game is hard Examples: Journal and OneNote

Microsoft doesn’t understand images Why Tablet PC doesn’t integrate PDF

Importance of ergonomics—hard for OEMs

Page 18: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Hardware futures

Display Quality: reflections, resolution, parallax, contrast Size: smaller New technologies: eInk

Digitizer Cost Calibration

Better integrated keyboard Ride laptop evolution

Battery life Weight—less than 2.5 lbs. Rugged—especially for K–12

Page 19: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Software futures

Pen Gestures—proofreader marks show what’s possible

Math input Sketch recognition Ink annotation – auto reflow

Speech – audio input the biggest problem Natural language commands

Display Smaller: UI issues Recruiting local projector, other screens

Camera/scanner – needs image processing Seamless networking, disconnected operation

Page 20: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Vertical applications

Health care Just what doctors need Many system issues, however

Education Are computers any good for education Or is it just for cheap textbooks

Page 21: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

Revolution through evolution

Changes are incremental Market is still small: << 1% of Windows Few tablet-specific apps Mostly small tweaks to existing apps

But it’s a different relationship to the computer Much more intimate Much closer to the physical world

In the end, big changes

Page 22: Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004. Tablet PC: Revolutionary Tool or Etch-a-Sketch? Butler Lampson Microsoft August 4, 2004

Butler Lampson: Tablet PC

The future is bright, but cloudy

Tablet vs cellphone Phone will integrate GPS, PDA, music, camera Reading is unclear: screen size Writing is even less clear: reading plus speech?

Tablet vs laptop Every laptop a tablet? Weight vs screen size vs power tradeoffs

Tablet vs people Natural input Computing at your fingertips