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alifornia Air Resources Board Development of Development of Emission Inventories Emission Inventories for for Air Quality Plans Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division Chief of the Research Division California Air Resources Board California Air Resources Board Delhi, India Delhi, India November 6-11, 2000 November 6-11, 2000

California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

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Page 1: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

California Air Resources Board

Development of Emission Development of Emission Inventories for Inventories for

Air Quality PlansAir Quality Plans

Development of Emission Development of Emission Inventories for Inventories for

Air Quality PlansAir Quality Plans

Bart E. Croes, P.E.Bart E. Croes, P.E.Chief of the Research DivisionChief of the Research DivisionCalifornia Air Resources BoardCalifornia Air Resources Board

Delhi, IndiaDelhi, IndiaNovember 6-11, 2000November 6-11, 2000

Page 2: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

2California Air Resources Board

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

I.I. OverviewOverview

II.II. California’s EmissionCalifornia’s EmissionInventory ProgramInventory Program

III.III. Planning for Planning for EmissionEmissionInventoriesInventories

Page 3: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Clean Air

Air Quality MonitoringAir Quality Monitoring

Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

Air Quality Air Quality ModelingModeling

ControlControlStrategyStrategy

Building an Air Quality PlanBuilding an Air Quality Plan

Page 4: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

4California Air Resources Board

Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

““Is a comprehensive listing of Is a comprehensive listing of the sources of air pollution the sources of air pollution andand an an estimateestimate of their of their emissions within a specific emissions within a specific geographic area for a geographic area for a specific time interval.”specific time interval.”

Page 5: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

5California Air Resources Board

Inventories can be used to:Inventories can be used to: Identify sources of pollutionIdentify sources of pollution Identify pollutants of concernIdentify pollutants of concern Amount, distribution, trends Amount, distribution, trends Identify and track control strategiesIdentify and track control strategies Input to air quality modelingInput to air quality modeling Input to health risk assessmentInput to health risk assessment

Page 6: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

6California Air Resources Board

Types of InventoriesTypes of Inventories

Annual averageAnnual average

Seasonal inventoriesSeasonal inventories

Forecasted - future estimatesForecasted - future estimates

Gridded / ModelingGridded / Modeling

Page 7: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

7California Air Resources Board

Pollutants:Pollutants:CriteriaCriteria

TOGTOG - - total organic gasestotal organic gases

ROGROG - - reactive organic gasesreactive organic gases

COCO - - carbon monoxidecarbon monoxide

NONOxx - - oxides of nitrogenoxides of nitrogen

SOSOxx - - oxides of sulfuroxides of sulfur

PMPM - - particulate matterparticulate matter

PMPM1010 - - PM PM << 10 microns 10 microns

Page 8: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

8California Air Resources Board

Pollutants:Pollutants:ToxicsToxics

Diesel PMDiesel PM BenzeneBenzene 1,3-Butadiene1,3-Butadiene FormaldehydeFormaldehyde Hexavalent ChromiumHexavalent Chromium PerchloroethlyenePerchloroethlyene LeadLead

Page 9: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

StationaryStationarySourcesSources RefineriesRefineries

ManufacturingManufacturing

Food processingFood processing

Electric utilitiesElectric utilities

Chemical Chemical productionproduction

Page 10: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Area-WideArea-WideSourcesSources

FarmingFarming Paved & unpavedPaved & unpaved

road dustroad dust SolventsSolvents ConsumerConsumer

productsproducts Open burningOpen burning

Page 11: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Mobile SourcesMobile Sources CarsCars

TrucksTrucks

BusesBuses

AircraftAircraft

TrainsTrains

ShipsShips

Page 12: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Non- anthropogenicNon- anthropogenic

WildfiresWildfires

BiogenicsBiogenics

Windblown DustWindblown Dust

Page 13: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

13California Air Resources Board

California’sCalifornia’sEmissionEmissionInventoryInventoryProgramProgram

Page 14: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

14California Air Resources Board

California’s Emission California’s Emission Inventory ProgramInventory Program

Required by State lawRequired by State law Over 30 years of experienceOver 30 years of experience Cooperative effort with other Cooperative effort with other

agencies agencies (state, federal, local)(state, federal, local)

Cooperation with industry groupsCooperation with industry groups Commitment of resourcesCommitment of resources

Page 15: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

15California Air Resources Board

California ProcessCalifornia Process

Local Districts - facility dataLocal Districts - facility data

State - on-road and off-road State - on-road and off-road emissionsemissions

Both share area-wide categoriesBoth share area-wide categories

Other agencies also provide dataOther agencies also provide data

Page 16: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

16California Air Resources Board

California’s InventoryCalifornia’s Inventory

Comprehensive inventoryComprehensive inventory

Data base 1979-1999Data base 1979-1999

Forecasts to 2020Forecasts to 2020

Criteria and toxics Criteria and toxics

Over 800 categories of emissionsOver 800 categories of emissions

Over 12,000 stationary sourcesOver 12,000 stationary sources

Page 17: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

17California Air Resources Board

Inventory ImprovementsInventory Improvements Ongoing researchOngoing research

Category improvements to support Category improvements to support regulationsregulations

Intense studies every 3-4 years to Intense studies every 3-4 years to support planning processsupport planning process

Published annually Published annually

Incorporate new improvementsIncorporate new improvements

Page 18: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

18California Air Resources Board

Statewide ChangesStatewide ChangesROG for 1995ROG for 1995

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Stationary Area On-RoadMobile

OtherMobile

Total

1995 Estimate

2000 Estimate

Page 19: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

19California Air Resources Board

Statewide ChangesStatewide ChangesNONOxx for 1995 for 1995

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Stationary Area On-RoadMobile

OtherMobile

Total

1995 Estimate

2000 Estimate

Page 20: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Passenger Car Emissions Passenger Car Emissions Changes for Southern CaliforniaChanges for Southern California

Year 2000, by Emissions ModelYear 2000, by Emissions Model

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

TOG CO NOx PM10

7E

7F

7G

2K

ton

s/d

ay

Page 21: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

21California Air Resources Board

Consumer ProductsConsumer ProductsSouthern California, 1997Southern California, 1997

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

ton

s/d

ay

ROG

1982 Study

1995 Survey

1997 Survey

Page 22: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Southern California Southern California NONOxx, ROG, PM, ROG, PM1010

Stationary11%

Area-wide3%

On-road65%

Other Mobile

21%

NONOxx

Stationary23%

Area-wide16%

On-road51%

Other Mobile

10%

ROGROG

Stationary7%

Area-wide84%

On-road6%

Other Mobile

3%

PMPM1010

Source: 1999 California Almanac of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Page 23: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline Vehicles

Diesel Vehicles Other Mobile

19851990

1995

0

400

800

Em

issi

ons

(ton

s pe

r d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile

Southern California Trends Southern California Trends NONOxx, ROG, PM, ROG, PM1010

NONOxx

ROGROG

PMPM1010

Source: 1999 California Almanac of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Page 24: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Air Quality Improvement Air Quality Improvement versus Growthversus Growth

-50 -47 -30

+41 +81 +75

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Per

cen

t Ch

ang

e19

80-1

998

Ozone PM10 Toxics Population VehicleTravel

Economy

Page 25: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

25California Air Resources Board

Resource Commitment Resource Commitment

Over 50 people at State levelOver 50 people at State level

35 districts staffs35 districts staffs

Millions in research dollars Millions in research dollars

An inventory for an air quality plan An inventory for an air quality plan may take 1-3 years and $500k to may take 1-3 years and $500k to $1million $1million

Page 26: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

26California Air Resources Board

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Need for regulatory frameworkNeed for regulatory framework Inventories take time and resources Inventories take time and resources Inventory development is a Inventory development is a

continuous and iterative processcontinuous and iterative process Reduced emission means improved Reduced emission means improved

air qualityair quality

Page 27: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Planning for the Planning for the Development of Development of

Emission InventoriesEmission Inventories

Page 28: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

28California Air Resources Board

Developing Emission Developing Emission InventoriesInventories

Planning for inventory Planning for inventory developmentdevelopment

Data collectionData collection

Data management and reportingData management and reporting

Page 29: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Type and ScopeType and Scope

Emission Inventories forEmission Inventories forAir Quality PlanningAir Quality Planning

Emission Inventories forEmission Inventories forAir Quality PlanningAir Quality Planning

InventoryInventoryObjectivesObjectives

resolutionresolution

sourcessourcespollutantspollutants

regionregion

AvailableAvailableResourcesResources MethodologiesMethodologiesMethodologiesMethodologies

Responsible PartiesResponsible Parties

ExistingExistingInformationInformation

Page 30: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

30California Air Resources Board

Selection of MethodsSelection of Methods

Intended use of inventory Intended use of inventory

Availability of dataAvailability of data

Practicality of methodPracticality of method

Priority of categoryPriority of category

Time/ResourcesTime/Resources

Page 31: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

31California Air Resources Board

MethodologiesMethodologies Top down approachTop down approach Continuous emission monitorsContinuous emission monitors Source testingSource testing Material balanceMaterial balance Emission factorsEmission factors Fuel analysisFuel analysis SurveysSurveys Engineering judgementEngineering judgement

Page 32: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

32California Air Resources Board

Estimation ModelsEstimation Models BEIS BEIS (biogenics)(biogenics)

Landfill Gas Emission ModelLandfill Gas Emission Model TANKS TANKS (storage tanks)(storage tanks)

MECH MECH (PM emissions form road, ag.)(PM emissions form road, ag.)

PM Calc PM Calc (PM(PM2.52.5 emissions) emissions)

MOBILE6 / EMFAC2000MOBILE6 / EMFAC2000 OFFROADOFFROAD Model Model

Page 33: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

33California Air Resources Board

Where to Find InformationWhere to Find Information Emission Inventory Improvement Emission Inventory Improvement

Program Program (EIIP)(EIIP)– 10 volumes of methods10 volumes of methods

California Air Resources BoardCalifornia Air Resources Board– Area Source ManualArea Source Manual– Speciation ManualsSpeciation Manuals– CATEF toxic emission factorsCATEF toxic emission factors

U. S. EPAU. S. EPA – CHIEF clearinghouse CHIEF clearinghouse – Fire Database (toxic factors)Fire Database (toxic factors)

Page 34: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Data Collection & ManagementData Collection & ManagementData Collection & ManagementData Collection & Management

ReportsReportsAnnual AverageAnnual Average

SeasonalSeasonalForecastedForecasted

GriddedGridded

Collect Collect DataData

Calculate Calculate EmissionsEmissions

Quality Quality AssuranceAssurance

DocumentationDocumentation

Data Handling Data Handling SystemSystem

ReportsReports

Page 35: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Calculate EmissionsCalculate Emissions

Process RateProcess Rate (ActivityActivity)

Number ofNumber of UnitsUnits

EmissionEmissionFactorFactorxx

EmissionsEmissions per Unitper Unit

xx

EmissionsEmissions==

TotalEmissions

==

Page 36: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

36California Air Resources Board

Data CollectionData Collection

Activity dataActivity data

Emission factorsEmission factors

Facility information Facility information

Spatial and temporalSpatial and temporal

SpeciationSpeciation

Page 37: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

37California Air Resources Board

Data Quality ObjectivesData Quality Objectives

AccuracyAccuracy // uncertaintyuncertainty CompletenessCompleteness RepresentativenessRepresentativeness ComparabilityComparability Consistency Consistency ReasonablenessReasonableness

Page 38: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

38California Air Resources Board

DocumentationDocumentation

Methods usedMethods used

Sources of dataSources of data

AssumptionsAssumptions

CalculationsCalculations

CommunicationCommunication

Page 39: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

39California Air Resources Board

Data ManagementData Management

NeedsNeeds // capabilitiescapabilities

ExpandabilityExpandability // flexibilityflexibility

Computer systemComputer system

Ease of useEase of use

Page 40: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

40California Air Resources Board

Data ReportingData Reporting

Annual average Annual average

Seasonal Seasonal

Forecasted Forecasted

GriddedGridded // modeling modeling

Page 41: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

41California Air Resources Board

Forecasting EmissionsForecasting Emissions

Forecast emissions based on Forecast emissions based on expectations of future economic expectations of future economic conditions, population growth, and conditions, population growth, and emission controlsemission controls

Need a baseline emission Need a baseline emission inventory, growth factors and inventory, growth factors and control factorscontrol factors

Page 42: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Gridded/Modeling Gridded/Modeling EmissionsEmissions

Determined by model selectionDetermined by model selection

Spatially and temporallySpatially and temporallyresolvedresolved

Hourly emissions byHourly emissions bygrid cellgrid cell

Day specific emissions Day specific emissions

Gridded NOx Emissions

Page 43: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Los Angeles CountyLos Angeles CountyGridded ROGGridded ROG

Facilities emitting greater than 100 tons/year ROG shown.

Page 44: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

44California Air Resources Board

Resources NeededResources Needed

Dependent on Dependent on OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES!!

Minimum of 18 months - 3 years?Minimum of 18 months - 3 years?

4-6 people full time?4-6 people full time?

$500k to $1 million?$500k to $1 million?

Page 45: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Clean Air

Air Quality MonitoringAir Quality Monitoring

Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

Air Quality Air Quality ModelingModeling

ControlControlStrategyStrategy

Building an Air Quality PlanBuilding an Air Quality Plan

Page 46: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions Plan for inventory developmentPlan for inventory development Identify needsIdentify needs Identify resourcesIdentify resources Build on what others Build on what others

have donehave done Schedule to allow timeSchedule to allow time Cooperative efforts Cooperative efforts

needed between needed between agencies & businessesagencies & businesses

Page 47: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

47California Air Resources Board

ARB Emissions Contact:ARB Emissions Contact:Linda Murchison, Ph.D.Linda Murchison, [email protected]@arb.ca.gov916-322-6021916-322-6021

Web Site:Web Site:http://arb.ca.gov/http://arb.ca.gov/emisinv/eib.htmemisinv/eib.htm

California Air ResourcesCalifornia Air ResourcesBoardBoard

Contact and InformationContact and Information

Page 48: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

ENDEND

Page 49: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

California Air Resources Board

Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

Discussion GroupDiscussion Group

Page 50: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Type and ScopeType and Scope

Emission Inventory PlanningEmission Inventory PlanningEmission Inventory PlanningEmission Inventory Planning

ObjectivesObjectives

resolutionresolution

sourcessourcespollutantspollutants

regionregion

AvailableAvailableResourcesResources MethodologiesMethodologiesMethodologiesMethodologies

Responsible PartiesResponsible Parties

ExistingExistingInformationInformation

Page 51: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Inventories Inventories for Air for Air QualityQualityModelsModels

Page 52: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

52California Air Resources Board

Air Quality ModelsAir Quality Models

Use emissions, atmospheric Use emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorological chemistry, and meteorological data to predict pollutant data to predict pollutant concentrations concentrations in the atmospherein the atmosphere

Page 53: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Modeling Input DataModeling Input Data

Speciated, gridded emission dataSpeciated, gridded emission data

Surface and aloft meteorological Surface and aloft meteorological measurementsmeasurements

Atmospheric chemistry Atmospheric chemistry

Extensive air quality Extensive air quality monitoring datamonitoring data

Page 54: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

54California Air Resources Board

Modeling Output DataModeling Output Data

Prediction of air quality impacts Prediction of air quality impacts based on changes in emissions based on changes in emissions or meteorologyor meteorology

Evaluate mix of emissions Evaluate mix of emissions reductions to best improve air reductions to best improve air qualityquality

Page 55: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

55California Air Resources Board

EmissionsEmissions ActualActual

– Measured or estimated emissions which most accurately represent the emissions from an emissions Measured or estimated emissions which most accurately represent the emissions from an emissions unit. For example: The actual rate of emissions is defined in tons per year of any regulated pollutant unit. For example: The actual rate of emissions is defined in tons per year of any regulated pollutant emitted from a major source over the preceding two years. Actual emissions shall be calculated using emitted from a major source over the preceding two years. Actual emissions shall be calculated using the unit's actual operating hours, production rates,and types of materials processed, stored, or the unit's actual operating hours, production rates,and types of materials processed, stored, or combusted during the preceding calendar year or other defined period. For a new emission unit, actual combusted during the preceding calendar year or other defined period. For a new emission unit, actual emissions equal the potential to emit of the unit.emissions equal the potential to emit of the unit.

AllowableAllowable– Permitted emissions levels. Actual should not exceed allowable emissions.Permitted emissions levels. Actual should not exceed allowable emissions.

PotentialPotential– The maximum physical and operational design capacity to emit a pollutant. Limitations on the physical The maximum physical and operational design capacity to emit a pollutant. Limitations on the physical

or operational design capacity, including emissions control devices and limitations on hours of or operational design capacity, including emissions control devices and limitations on hours of operation, may be considered only if such limitations are incorporated into the applicable Authority to operation, may be considered only if such limitations are incorporated into the applicable Authority to Construct and Permit to Operate. EPA Part 70 regulations define potential to emit as the "maximum Construct and Permit to Operate. EPA Part 70 regulations define potential to emit as the "maximum capacity of a stationary source to emit any air pollutant under its physical and operational design." In capacity of a stationary source to emit any air pollutant under its physical and operational design." In general, this definition means that emissions from a source must be estimated at maximum capacity general, this definition means that emissions from a source must be estimated at maximum capacity over 365 days per year. over 365 days per year.

Page 56: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

56California Air Resources Board

Success in Clean AirSuccess in Clean Air Due to stringent control programDue to stringent control program

Must account for growthMust account for growth

Stationary ControlsStationary Controls– control of industrial sourcescontrol of industrial sources– consumer products, paintsconsumer products, paints

Mobile ControlsMobile Controls– engine standardsengine standards– retrofit existing enginesretrofit existing engines– clean fuelsclean fuels

Page 57: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

57California Air Resources Board

Databases for Developing Databases for Developing InventoriesInventories

Microsoft Access DatabaseMicrosoft Access Database

Oracle DatabaseOracle Database

Paradox DatabaseParadox Database

Dbase DatabaseDbase Database

Page 58: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

58California Air Resources Board

SCCs Define and Categorize SCCs Define and Categorize Emissions Related DataEmissions Related Data

Identify Emission ProcessesIdentify Emission Processes 8 Digit Source Classification Codes8 Digit Source Classification Codes Created by U.S. EPACreated by U.S. EPA Over 7100 Valid SCCs Now AvailableOver 7100 Valid SCCs Now Available Important to Assign SCCs CorrectlyImportant to Assign SCCs Correctly

Source Classification Codes Source Classification Codes (SCC) System(SCC) System

Page 59: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

59California Air Resources Board

Gridded and Modeling Gridded and Modeling Emission Inventories Emission Inventories (cont.)(cont.)

How are emissions spatially How are emissions spatially allocated?allocated?

– Point sources - UTM coordinatesPoint sources - UTM coordinates

– Area sources - spatial surrogates (land Area sources - spatial surrogates (land use or population)use or population)

– Mobile sources - motor vehicle emission Mobile sources - motor vehicle emission and transportation modelsand transportation models

Page 60: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

60California Air Resources Board

Growth FactorsGrowth Factors

What are growth factors?What are growth factors?– Factors based on specific economic Factors based on specific economic

profiles for certain industry typesprofiles for certain industry types– or based on demographic dataor based on demographic data

Page 61: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

61California Air Resources Board

Control FactorsControl Factors

What are control factors?What are control factors?– Control factors are derived from rules and Control factors are derived from rules and

regulations which impose emission regulations which impose emission reductions or a technological change on a reductions or a technological change on a particular emission process. particular emission process.

Page 62: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

62California Air Resources Board

Emission ControlsEmission Controls

Motor VehicleMotor Vehicle– catalyst, vapor recovery, OBD, clean fuelscatalyst, vapor recovery, OBD, clean fuels

Stationary SourcesStationary Sources

– scrubbers, cyclones, electrostatic scrubbers, cyclones, electrostatic precipitators, bag housesprecipitators, bag houses

Page 63: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

63California Air Resources Board

CARB Mobile Source and Fuels CARB Mobile Source and Fuels Regulations and ProgramsRegulations and Programs

New engine emission standards New engine emission standards In-use durability requirementsIn-use durability requirements Retrofit existing enginesRetrofit existing engines Cleaner fuels: gasoline, diesel, natural Cleaner fuels: gasoline, diesel, natural

gasgas Promote national and international Promote national and international

standards for trucks, ships, and aircraftstandards for trucks, ships, and aircraft New technologies for the futureNew technologies for the future

Page 64: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

64California Air Resources Board

CARB Cleaner Fuels CARB Cleaner Fuels ProgramProgram

1992: Eliminated lead from gasoline, 1992: Eliminated lead from gasoline, limited vapor pressure, required limited vapor pressure, required oxygenates in winter to reduce carbon oxygenates in winter to reduce carbon monoxidemonoxide

1996: Introduced “cleaner-burning 1996: Introduced “cleaner-burning gasoline” to achieve maximum gasoline” to achieve maximum reductions in ozone and toxicsreductions in ozone and toxics

1999: Phase out MTBE by 2002, 1999: Phase out MTBE by 2002, reduce sulfur and benzene furtherreduce sulfur and benzene further

Page 65: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

65California Air Resources Board

CARB NOx Emission Standards for On-Road Trucks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 g/hp-hr

1990

1991

1998

2004

1985

Possible Future Standards• NOx aftertreatment-based• 75-90% reduction • 2007 goal

Page 66: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

66California Air Resources Board

CARB PM Emission StandardsFor On-Road Trucks

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7 g/hp-hr

1988

1991

1994truck

bus

Possible Future Standards• PM trap-based• ~90% Reduction • 2007 goal

Page 67: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

67California Air Resources Board

Diesel PM and NOx Diesel PM and NOx ControlsControls

Cleaner diesel fuelCleaner diesel fuel– Very low sulfur enables after-treatment Very low sulfur enables after-treatment

Exhaust after-treatmentExhaust after-treatment– PM traps > 90% efficientPM traps > 90% efficient– NOx catalysts 50-90% efficiency potentialNOx catalysts 50-90% efficiency potential

Alternative fuels: natural gasAlternative fuels: natural gas

New technologies: fuel cellsNew technologies: fuel cells

Page 68: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

68California Air Resources Board

Cleaner Industrial SourcesCleaner Industrial Sources

Best controls on new and existing sourcesBest controls on new and existing sources

Controls for NOx, ROG, SOx, CO, toxicsControls for NOx, ROG, SOx, CO, toxics

Diesel particulate matter controls to Diesel particulate matter controls to reduce toxics risk reduce toxics risk

Page 69: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

69California Air Resources Board

Cleaner Consumer ProductsCleaner Consumer Products CARB CARB has set ROG emission limits for has set ROG emission limits for

nearly 50 categories of consumer products nearly 50 categories of consumer products and 35 categories of aerosol paints and and 35 categories of aerosol paints and coating products.coating products.

• CARB regulations will reduce CARB regulations will reduce emissions by 53 tons per day in Los emissions by 53 tons per day in Los AngelesAngeles

Page 70: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Relative Toxics Risk for Relative Toxics Risk for Diesel PMDiesel PM

Based on CARB’s 1995 -1997 ambient monitoring data and estimated diesel PM concentrations

Ben

zene

Ben

zene

1,3-

But

adie

ne

1,3-

But

adie

ne

Chr

ome

VI

Chr

ome

VIC

arbo

n Te

trac

hlor

ide

Car

bon

Tetr

achl

orid

e

Form

alde

hyde

Form

alde

hyde

para

-Dic

hlor

oben

zene

para

-Dic

hlor

oben

zene

Perc

hlor

oeth

ylen

e

Perc

hlor

oeth

ylen

e

Ace

tald

ehyd

e

Ace

tald

ehyd

e

All

Oth

ers

All

Oth

ers

Die

sel P

M

Die

sel P

M

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o S

tate

wid

e C

ance

r R

isk

Page 71: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

On-Road Diesel9%

On-Road Gas2%

Tire & Brake2%

Off-Road Moble10%

Industrial14%

Burning30%

Geologic33%

Organic Carbon18%

Elemental Carbon

8%

Sodium1%

Chloride1%

Geologic6%

Sulfate9%

Nitrate40%

Ammonium17%

Emissions Inventory Ambient Species(CMB analysis - all species)

Slices with lines are secondary PM

Does not include secondary PMRubidoux, 1997 AQMP, App. V, SCAQMD

Direct & Secondary PMDirect & Secondary PM2.52.5

Inventory vs Ambient Air Inventory vs Ambient Air for SCAQMDfor SCAQMD

Page 72: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

72California Air Resources Board

What is in the Air?What is in the Air?Mobile6%

Industrial5%

Geologic6%

Burning16%

Nitrates67%

Secondary compoundsSecondary compoundssometimes significantsometimes significant

Extremely variableExtremely variable– By seasonBy season– By locationBy location– By dayBy day

San Joaquin Valley PMSan Joaquin Valley PM2.52.5

(hypothetical winter day)(hypothetical winter day)

From ammonia and From ammonia and

combustion exhaustcombustion exhaust

primary, directprimary, direct

emissionsemissions

secondarysecondary

emissionsemissions

Page 73: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

73California Air Resources Board

PMPM1010 Inventoried Sources Inventoried SourcesSouth Coast Air Basin, 1996South Coast Air Basin, 1996

On-Road Mobile6%

Other Mobile4%

Industrial & Other7%

Waste Burning1%

Residential Wood Burn6%

Wildfires4%

Conctruction11%

Farming4%

Paved Road Dust41%

Fugitive Windblown

4%

Unpaved Road Dust12% Source: ARB 1996 Statewide Inventory

440 tons/day

Page 74: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

74California Air Resources Board

NONOxx Inventoried Sources Inventoried SourcesSouth Coast Air Basin, 1996South Coast Air Basin, 1996

On-Road Gasoline45%

On-Road Diesel18%

Other Mobile22%

Fuel Combustion10%

Industrial2%

Areawide3%

1100 tons/daySource: ARB 1996 Statewide Inventory

Page 75: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

75California Air Resources Board

ROG Inventoried SourcesROG Inventoried SourcesSouth Coast Air Basin, 1996South Coast Air Basin, 1996

On-Road Gasoline42%

On-Road Diesel3%

Other Mobile9%

Fuel Combustion1%

Degreasing9%

Coatings13%

Other Stationary9%

Consumer Products

9%

Misc5%

1100 tons/daySource: ARB 1996 Statewide Inventory

Page 76: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Emission trends NOEmission trends NOxx

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile Source: 1999 California Almanac

of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Page 77: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Emission trends ROGEmission trends ROG

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile Source: 1999 California Almanac

of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Page 78: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Emission trends PMEmission trends PM1010

19851990

1995

0

400

800

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile Source: 1999 California Almanac

of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Page 79: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Passenger Car Exhaust Passenger Car Exhaust Changes for Southern CaliforniaChanges for Southern California

Year 2000, by Emissions ModelYear 2000, by Emissions Model

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

TOG CO NOx PM10

7E

7F

7G

2K

ton

s/d

ay

Page 80: California Air Resources Board Development of Emission Inventories for Air Quality Plans Bart E. Croes, P.E. Chief of the Research Division California

Statewide, 2000 Statewide, 2000 NONOxx, ROG, ROG

Stationary19%

Area-wide3%

On-road47%

Other Mobile

31%

NONOxx

Stationary23%

Area-wide28%

On-road35%

Other Mobile

14%

ROGROG

Stationary17%

Area-wide3%

On-road52%

Other Mobile

28%

NONOxx

Stationary20%

Area-wide24%

On-road44%

Other Mobile

12%

ROGROG

OldOldEstimateEstimate

RevisedRevisedEstimateEstimate