Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Can we predict how good a movie will do ?

Alexandre Chau and Arthur Thibaud

ENAC

April 22, 2018

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

1 IntroductionContextVariables

2 First model : study of the box-officeMarginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

3 Second model : study of the rentabilityMarginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

4 ConclusionPredictionsLimits

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

The Blair Witch project

Table: A movie which made a huge profit

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

Our sample

Purpose

Can we predict if a movie will make money ?

Number of observations

n = 108 movies and k = 26 variables

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

Non-dummy variables

Variables Description

box Box office after a month in the US (in million dollars)budget Budget (in million dollars)critics meta Rating of Metacritic (in % )critics tomato Rating of RottenTomatoes (in % )director Number of nominations at the Academy Awards for Best Directorhigher budgets Number of movies released the same month with a higher budgetlength Length of the movie (in minutes)star Number of Academy Award nominations for the star actorsupporting Number of Academy Award nominations for the supporting actortrailers Number of trailersyear Year of release of the movie

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

Dummy variables

Variables Description

action The movie is an action movieadventure The movie is an adventure moviecomedy The movie is a comedy moviedocumentary The movie is a documentary moviedrama The movie is a drama movieeurope The movie is an europea moviefantastic The movie is a fantastic moviehorror The movie is an horror movienew story The movie is a new storypg The movie is a pg moviepg 13 The movie is a pg 13 movier The movie is a rated R moviesaga The movie is a sagathriller The movie is a thriller movieus The movie is an american movie

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

Histogram of the box-office

Figure: Histogram and stats for box office.7 / 30

Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

Histogram of the budget

Figure: Histogram and stats for budget.8 / 30

Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

ContextVariables

Correlation matrix

Europe and US correlation

Critics correlation

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

First model

We started by looking how the variables were affecting thebox-office

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Computed equation

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

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Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant

action / - noadventure / - nobudget + + yescomedy / - nocritics tomato + + yesdirector + + nodocumentary / - nodrama / - noeurope - - yesfantastic / - no...

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

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Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant

higher budgets - + nohorror / + nolength / + yesnew story + - nopg 13 / + nor - - yessaga + + yesstar + + nosupporting + - yesthriller / + notrailers + + yesyear / + no

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Normality of the errors

Figure: The errors don’t follow a normal law.

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Heteroscedasticity

Figure: It seems that the sample contains heteroscedasticity

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Heteroskedasticity

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Standard errors

Table: Adjusted R squared Table: Standard errors

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Improvement of first model

We recomputed the box-office, but this time only against thevariables that were significant i.e. budget, critics tomato, europe,

length, r, saga, supporting and trailers.

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis

Computed equation

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

Rentability

We created a second model, this time in order to study therentability, which is the ratio between the box-office and the

budget.

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

EViews modelization

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

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Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant

action / + noadventure / + nocomedy / + nocritics tomato + + nodirector + + nodocumentary / - nodrama / + nofantastic / + no...

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

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Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant

higher budgets - + yeshorror / + yeslength / + yesnew story + + yespg 13 / - yesr - - nosaga + + yesstar + - yessupporting + - nothriller / + notrailers + + yesus / + yesyear / - no

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

Heteroscedasticity test

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

Improvement of second model

We recomputed the rentability, but this time only against thevariables that were siginificant i.e. higher budgets, horror, length,

new story, r, saga, star, trailers and us.

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis

EViews modelization

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

PredictionsLimits

Comparison of the models

Table: iENAC14 model : Prediction/reality = 1.36

Reality

Box-office after 1 month: $321,322,593 , rentability : 1.29

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

PredictionsLimits

Comparison of the models 1 : Batman vs Superman

First models

Box-office prediction = $263,781,100Ratio : 0.82 (adjusted R2 : 0.734)

Box-office prediction = $296,722,240Ratio : 0.92 (adjusted R2 : 0.735)

Second models

Rentability prediction = 217.43, ratio : 168.55Rentability prediction = 40.68, ratio :31.5

Pretty bad modelization of rentability.

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

PredictionsLimits

Comparison of the models 2 : Blair Witch Project

Real box office

$113,380,000

First models

1- Box-office prediction = $20,272,040Ratio : 0.18 (adjusted R2 : 0.734)

2- Box-office prediction = $173,379,800Ratio : 1.53 (adjusted R2 : 0.742)

Second models

1- Rentability prediction = 1109, ratio : 0.482- Rentability prediction = 1080, ratio : 0.46

Better modelization than the first movie.

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Table of contentsIntroduction

First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability

Conclusion

PredictionsLimits

Limits

Limits of our models

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