CAS: Central Instrument for Managing for Results

The Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy: Central Instrument for

Managing for Results

Erika Jorgensen, OPCS

February 24, 2005 3

“RESULTS FOCUS IN COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGIES:

A STOCKTAKING OF RESULTS-BASED CASs”

A paper for the Board, scheduled for March 10 informal discussion

Based on interviews, document review, Board comments, lessons already compiled

February 24, 2005 4

WHAT?

A Country Assistance Strategy that contains a strong orientation toward achieving realistic outcomes and a results-oriented monitoring and evaluation system

February 24, 2005 5

WHAT? (continued)

Pilot phase launched by 2003 CAS Retro

7 official pilots, only 2 in MICs Spontaneous mainstreaming Africa Region mainstreams

September 2003

February 24, 2005 6

FROM WHERE? Results Agenda Shareholders and stakeholders Drive for modernization and

simplification

February 24, 2005 7

WHY? Better definition of Bank’s impact Fill in the “missing middle” Better strategy, with higher chances

of success and greater development effectiveness

Strengthen ‘pillars’ of the CAS

February 24, 2005 8

Impact on the CAS of a Greater Focus on Results

Pillars of the CAS Aspects strengthened by

a focus on results

Results (monitoring and evaluation

of achievement)

· Definition of intended outcomes to which the CAS program directly contributes

· Monitoring and management during implementation

· Use of lessons learned

Vision

(country’s development goals)

· Alignment with country-owned strategy

Diagnosis (Bank assessment)

· Analysis of issues and proposed strategy to address them, including cross-sectoral emphasis

Program

(of Bank lending and nonlending activities)

· Selectivity and partnership

Results-

Based CAS

February 24, 2005 9

WHAT (again)? Results framework

logical links between country goals and Bank activities

Results Matrix summary of framework in CAS document

Outcomes, milestones, and indicators

Capacity constraints

February 24, 2005 10

Example of a Results Chain for a CAS Results Framework

Country Development Goal

Improved literacy rates.

Medium-term Outcome Improved student achievement scores on tests at primary

level.

RE

SUL

TS

Shorter-term Outcome Teachers use improved curriculum in the classrooms.

Outputs Teachers trained in new curriculum.

Activities Train teachers; simplify primary school curriculum.

DE

VE

LO

PME

NT

INT

ER

VE

NT

ION

Inputs Additional funds for primary schools.

February 24, 2005 11

Schematic of the CAS Results Framework

Long-term Country Outcomes

CAS Results

Bank Interventions

Country development goals

“What are the longer term or higher order development objectives identified by the

country?”

Issues and obstacles

“What are the critical issues and obstacles to achieving country development goals?”

Milestones

“What are the outputs, actions, or outcomes expected to be realized during CAS

implementation that can serve as progress markers towards CAS outcomes?”

CAS outcomes

“What are the highest order results achievable in the CAS period and which the Bank expects to

influence directly through its interventions?”

Bank and partner programs

“What are the ongoing and planned lending and nonlending activities by the Bank and key

partners that are expected to influence CAS outcomes?”

Milestones warn if CAS outcomes are

unlikely to materialize and need

adjustment

Ongoing portfolio strongly

influences results

achievable in near-term

Medium level outcomes linked to Bank activities help select which country goals the

Bank can support Diagnosis

identifies what is achievable

during the CAS period

Activities selected to

further progress towards

outcomes

Shortfalls on milestones

spur recalibration of activities

February 24, 2005 12

CAS Results Matrix:Excerpt from Cameroon CAS

Country Development Goals Issues and Obstacles CAS Outcomes Milestones Bank Program (and Partners)

Definition: Longer-term or higher-order development objectives identified by the country. Usually not achievable in the CAS period nor solely addressed by the CAS program. Only those to which CAS outcomes will contribute are included.

Definition: Critical issues and obstacles to achieving country development goals, providing the logical link to CAS outcomes.

Definition: Results achievable in the CAS period and which the Bank expects to influence through its interventions. Indicators of each outcome are included, with baselines and targets.

Definition: Progress markers of CAS implementation; outputs, actions, or outcomes expected to be realized during CAS implementation.

Definition: Ongoing and planned lending, grants, and guarantees; analytical and advisory activities. Includes IBRD, IDA, IFC, MIGA. Partners included if cofinancing or other support of same CAS outcome.

Reduction in Rural Poverty

Decrease in the poverty incidence in rural areas from 49.9% (2001).

Maternal mortality rates decrease from 430 per 100,000 (1998) disaggregated by rural area.

Child mortality decreases from 77 per 1000 (1998) disaggregated by rural area.

100% primary school completion rates by 2015, from 56% (2001) disaggregated by rural area.

Determinants of Rural Poverty

Lack of education among heads of households is a key determinant of rural poverty.

Relative isolation (enclavement) due to a lack of physical infrastructure (mainly roads) and no adequate support for road maintenance.

Isolation from social services (health and education), especially in rural areas.

Low level of coordination between ministries in charge of rural water, and low local capacity and skills for water supply infrastructure

20% of the poor have no financial social coverage.

Improved Delivery of Basic Services (sustainable management of service delivery at the community level for rural communities in 4 targeted provinces):

% of rural communities in the 4 provinces with access to basic socio-economic services (baseline in FY04), including:

- Increase in access to water (baseline: 58%). - Decrease in time to get to school. - Increased use of rural health care clinics. % of communities in the 4 provinces who have functioning elected committees.

50% of the 4000 rural communities targeted have fully implemented one micro-project (roads, schools, hospitals, etc) by 2006.

Over 4,000 rural community based action plans designed and implemented between 2003 and end 2005.

Increased involvement of women and vulnerable groups in decision-making, definition of priority action plans, and implementation oversight.

Lending - Ongoing Agricultural Extension and Services; Petroleum Environment Capacity Enhancement; Douala Infrastructure. Lending - Proposed FY04 : National Community Driven Development; FY06: PRSC (rural development). AAA - Ongoing FY03: Expenditure tracking and beneficiary assessments. AAA - Proposed FY04 : Health Sector Reform Note; Gender Strategy (IDF). FY06: Poverty Assessment. PARTNERS Cofinancing of PNDP by AFD, IFAD, KfW and Netherlands cooperation.

February 24, 2005 13

Tracking of CAS Results

Design Implementation Evaluation

CAS document CAS Progress Report CAS Completion Report

Storyline follows logic of results framework

CAS Results Matrix

Completion Report of previous CAS

Discussion of progress and any midpoint course correction

Monitoring matrix

Self-evaluation

Completion matrix

Included in next CAS document

Management monitoring and learning OED Review of

Completion Report

Lessons for next CAS

February 24, 2005 14

HOW? Session 2a “Managing for Results in

Country Programming” 11:30-1.00 p.m MC13-121

February 24, 2005 15

WHEN? Timing of Development of the Results-Based CAS Pilots

Results-based CAS Pilot

IBRD/ IDA Region

Concept Review Board Date

Months from Concept to

Board

Sri Lanka IDA SAR 10/31/2002 4/1/2003 5.1

Cameroon IDA AFR 2/5/2003 9/11/2003 7.3

Ukraine IBRD ECA 9/3/2002 10/23/2003 13.8

Mozambique IDA AFR 10/25/2002 11/20/2003 13.0

Brazil IBRD LCR 1/15/2003 12/9/2003 10.9

Zambia IDA AFR 9/26/2002 3/10/2004 17.7

Armenia IDA ECA 11/18/2003 6/10/2004 6.8

AVERAGE 10.7 Average for all other CASs during FY04 9.3

February 24, 2005 16

ARE YOU SURE ABOUT THIS?Findings of the Pilot Phase

Contribution, not attribution Results delivered by ongoing portfolio Outcomes will be limited in some cases Initial CAS Completion Report

• rethinking the previous CAS Statistical capacity is crucial

February 24, 2005 17

Average CAS Design Cost for Full CASs, FY00-04 ($'000)

167.9

206.9188.7

175.2

249.3

0

100

200

300

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04

February 24, 2005 18

DO WE KNOW WHAT WE’RE DOING?

Emerging good practice CAS as roadmap core set of outcomes and indicators balance availability and relevance in

selecting indicators limit outcomes to fit country

circumstances adaptability and experimentation in MICs

February 24, 2005 19

DO WE KNOW WHAT WE’RE DOING (cont.)?

participation and early start improve CAS Completion Reports’ contribution to next CAS

initial CAS CR• Retrofitting should be limited

monitoring during implementation• results focus in CPPR• annual reviews of progress

February 24, 2005 20

WHEN (again)?Next steps

Guidance and learning BP 2.11 guidelines for staff good practice

Ratings in CAS Completion Reports

February 24, 2005 21

MORE QUESTIONSChallenges going forward

Managing expectations identifying CAS outcomes quality of results frameworks Statistical capacity

Aiming at simplicity and flexibility further experimentation in MICs emphasis on simplicity

February 24, 2005 22

MORE QUESTIONS (cont.)

Incentives that support results results vs. deliveries near-term focus quality of interventions continuity

Overloading of the CAS Countries’ capacity to manage for

results

February 24, 2005 23

RESOURCES AND FURTHER LEARNING

Board paper CAS Academy (March 16-17) Frontiers in Bank Operations OPCS and Regional websites Pilot teams OPCS staff