Resilient State for M9.0 CSZ Earthquake – Oregon’s 50-

year Vision

Kent Yu, PhD, SE Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory

Commission

July 18,2012 OSU, Corvallis Oregon

Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes

20 earthquakes ruptured all of the subduction zone. 2 to 3 earthquakes ruptured three quarters of subduction zone. 19 earthquakes ruptured the southern half or quarter of the

subduction zone.

Turbidites show how much of the subduction zone ruptured

in ~42 earthquakes over the last 10,000 years.

Mw ~9500 yrs

Mw 8.5-8.8430 yrs

Mw 8.5-8.3320 yrs

Mw 7.6-8.4240 yrs

(Modified from Goldfinger et al. (in press) by adding magnitude estimates and

some labels)

Recurrence

Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk

Seismic Concerns Progressive government and community Unclear building performance Different standards for performance among different lifeline sectors Lack of inter-sector coordination Limited understanding by political leadership and the public of the potential performance of buildings and lifelines

House Resolution 3 Sponsored by Rep. Deb Boone and othersDirects (OSSPAC) to “lead and coordinate preparation of an Oregon Resilience Plan that . . . makes recommendations on policy direction to protect lives and keep commerce flowing during and after a Cascadia (megathrust) earthquake and tsunami.” The Plan and recommendations to be delivered to the Oregon Legislative Assembly by February 28, 2013.

Broad Political Support Richard A. Reed, President Obama’s Senior Director for Resilience PolicyOregon Governor John Kitzhaber State Agencies CREW, SEAO, ASCE, AIAOregon businesses and local governmentAcademia (UO, OSU, PSU, UP, Reed, etc) Neighbors, Friends and Colleagues

Resilience Planning Objective

Look at 50-year time window

Develop a comprehensive plan so that state will have been resilient by 2062

Utilize concepts and ideas by SF Planning +Urban Research Association and from Resilient Washington Initatives

Oregon Resilience Planning Steps

Assess conditions of existing critical facilities and lifeline systems, Evaluate effectiveness of current design and construction practices relative to earthquake resilience, Develop desired performance targets (in terms of usability and timeframe required for the restoration of services) to meet resilience goals, and prepare recommendations for statewide policies and actions to achieve the desired performance targets. Recommendations will be prepared in plain, layman language.

Organizational Structure

OSSPACOSSPAC Steering CommitteeAdvisory PanelEight WorkgroupsStarted to plan in November 2011Kickoff on January 26, 2012 at Port of PortlandSpecial February Meeting (Advisory panel + Group leaders)150 +/- volunteers

Advisory PanelCameron Smith (Governor’s office)

Sen. Peter Courtney (Legislature)

Sen. Lee Beyer (Legislature)JR Gonzalez (formerly Oregon PUC)

Bruce Johnson (ODOT)

Ed Dennis (Dept. of Education) Yumei Wang (NEHRP)

Onno Husing (formerly OCZMA)

Nate Wood (USGS)

Scott Ashford (OSU)

Chris Goldfinger (OSU)

Andre LeDuc (U of O)

Jeff Soulages (Intel)

Ted Wolf (Oregon citizen)

Leon Kempner (Regional/BPA)

Vicki McConnell (DOGAMI)

Jean O'connor (Healthcare)

Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario

Critical/Essential BuildingsEnergyInformation and Communications TechnologyTransportationCoastal Resilience Water and Waste Water Systems

Business/Community Continuity

Eight Workgroups

Earthquake/Tsunami GroupLed by Ian Madin (DOGAMI)

Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario Group will develop:

1) Ground shaking intensity maps2) Tsunami Inundation maps3) Landslide and liquefaction maps

Coastal Community Resilience Group

Led by Jay Wilson/Jay Raskin

Tsunami Risk Mitigation Group will address the following:

Tsunami evacuationZoning and Land use policyCritical facilities Re-building communityDebris management

Critical Building GroupLed by by Ed Quesenberry and Trent Nagele (SEAO) The Critical Building Task Group will address the buildings listed below:

Emergency Operations CentersEducation facilities (K-12, College and University); Healthcare facilities (Hospitals and MOBs)Police and Fire StationsCritical government administration/services facilitiesEmergency sheltering facilitiesCommunity retail centersFinancial/banking BuildingsResidential HousingKiller buildings (URM and non-ductile RC buildings)

Energy GroupLed by Stan Watters (OSSPAC/Port of Portland) and JR Gonzalez (formerly OPUC)The Energy Task Group will address the systems listed below:

ElectricityNatural GasLiquid FuelAlternate Energy – Solar, Wind and others Dams

Transportation GroupLed by Bruce Johnson (ODOT)The Transportation Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Bridges (owned by ODOT, Counties or Cities)

Airports and SeaportsRailroadsMass Transit (Trimet)Columbia River

Information and Communications Group

Led by Mike Mumaw (OSSPAC/Beaverton)

The Information and Communications Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Communication Network and DatabaseTelecommunication Infrastructure

Water and Waste Water GroupLed by Mike Stuhr (PWB) and Mark Knudson (TVWD)

The Water and Wastewater Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Water storage, transmission, and distribution systems (including Dams)

Wastewater collection systems and treatment plants

Business/Community Continuity GroupLed by Susan Stewart (BOMA) and Gerry Williams (OSSPAC)Goals:

Raise Earthquake/Tsunami Awareness Gauge Earthquake/Tsunami Preparedness Gather input/ideas from Business for other

workgroups to define resilience targets and improve resilience plan

Business/Community Continuity GroupBusiness Needs:

Three Regions and Interdependence

Three Banded Zones:1) Central/Eastern Oregon

2) Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor 3) Coastal Region3a) Tsunami Inundation Zone

Regional Focus/PriorityCoastal Region (inundation area): Save livesCoastal Region (non-inundation area): Save lives, Provide shelters, Restore utilities and communitiesValley/I-5 Corridor: Save lives, Restore communities, and Preserving functioning economy

Eastern Oregon: Relatively easy to achieve resilient StateEastern Oregon can function as a staging point

Business/Community Continuity GroupGroup Leaders: Susan Steward and Gerry Williams

Members: OBA, Cambia, Intel, ECONorthwest, the Standard, New Season Market

Business community demand two weeks for utilities Work force: tipping in vs. tipping outEssential Facilities shorter time frameRed, Yellow, and Green tagged buildingsBig Business vs Small Business

Lifeline Sector InterdependenceTeam Leaders/Steering Committee meet monthly (since April)Identify common denominatorsLiquid Fuel, TransportationElectricity, W&WW, Telecom Challenges and Obstacles

Lack of participation/engagement Lack of inspectors for buildings and bridges

Project MilestonesProject Kickoff workshop on 1/26/2012 (312th Anniversary)Each group collect data and complete analysis by 8/30/2012Each group complete first draft report by 9/11/20122nd workshop will be held in PSU on 9/18/2012 (to be finalized)Regular OSSPAC meeting in September to be on 9/25/2012Steering Committee consolidate review comments (including those of Advisory Panel) in the first week of October, 2012Each group update the report by the end of October, 2012OSSPAC review/develop policy recommendations in 11/2012Report reaches 95% completion milestone; share draft with legislature by December 15th 2012Work on the final revisions in January 2013 Publish the resilience report in February 2013

Thank You