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Case-Shiller ® Home Price Index Forecasts EXCLUSIVE FORECASTS OF THE MOST ACCURATE MEASURE OF U.S. HOME PRICES

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts - Economy · 2019-06-01 · Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most

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Page 1: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts - Economy · 2019-06-01 · Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most

Case-Shiller®

Home Price Index ForecastsEXCLUSIVE FORECASTS OF THE MOST ACCURATE MEASURE OF U.S. HOME PRICES

Page 2: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts - Economy · 2019-06-01 · Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most

Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most accurate measure of changes in house prices over time. They measure the total market, not just prices of homes purchased through conforming loans. Using Robert Shiller and Karl Case’s time-tested repeat-sales methodology, CSIs are value-weighted and based on observed changes in the value of actual sales. This methodology eliminates appraisal bias, filters out non-arm’s-length sales, and down-weights pairs with long intervals between sales to reduce the influence of extreme price changes.

Economic Expertise » More than 80 economists tracking regional economic

conditions.

» Dedicated team of housing analysts.

» One of the first firms to warn of the housing bubble and downturn.

The Industry Standard » Trusted for decades by government entities, Wall Street, and

leading financial institutions worldwide

» Selected by S&P as the arbiter of house price futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

» Time-tested methodology validated and accepted by market and industry professionals.

Key Features

Applications

Identify Market- Specific Opportunities » Target home equity and

credit card marketing.

» Incorporate market-based product pricing.

» Monitor changes in values across property types.

Manage Risk in RMBS Investments » Update mortgage pool

collateral values.

» Model defaults and prepayments.

» Balance exposure to at-risk markets with growth opportunities.

Service and Manage Mortgage Portfolios » Improve customer retention

and marketing.

» Monitor collateral coverage.

» Estimate gains and losses under multiple economic scenarios.

The Most Accurate » Monthly forecasts ensure that current economic climate is captured.

» Alternative economic scenarios allow for stress-testing and “what if” analysis.

» Data quality measures never compromised for more coverage or higher frequency.

» Rigorous validation results in low thresholds of implied volatility, making the index more stable and thus more usable.

» Selected by the FDIC in its stress tests of residential mortgage assets as the only accurate reflection of the market downturn in both timing and severity.

Page 3: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts - Economy · 2019-06-01 · Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most

The most trustworthy and authoritative U.S. house price forecasts — available exclusively from Moody’s Analytics and CoreLogic® since 2003.

» Moody’s Analytics forecasts use a fully specified, transparent supply-and-demand model.

» The model identifies long-term influences such as income trends and demographics and cyclical factors such as unemployment, affordability, and changes in mortgage and foreclosure rates .

» Baseline—most likely—scenario as well as several alternative scenarios simulate the path of house prices under a range of conditions.

» Monthly forecasts ensure that current economic conditions are always reflected.

Dynamic Forecasts

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3

BaselineStronger Near-term ReboundSlower Near-term RecoverySecond RecessionProtracted SlumpOil Price Increase, Inflation

Los Angeles, CA Metropolitan DivisionCase-Shiller® Home Price Index, % change yr ago

Sources: CoreLogic, Moody's Analytics

-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Case-Shiller® Home Price IndexNAR Median Home PriceFHFA Purchase-Only

Three House Price Measures Compared% change yr ago

Sources: CoreLogic, FHFA, NAR, Moody's Analytics

Alternative Scenario AnalysisChoose a scenario that best fits your stress test perspective, goals, and regulatory requirements

Superior AccuracyThe CSIs accurately capture the timing and magnitude of housing shifts and are less volatile than other indexes.

R FAQs

R Technical description of the indexes

R Model methodology

R Complete list of coverage areas

Learn More

Visit www.economy.com/csi for:

Page 4: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts - Economy · 2019-06-01 · Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most

Copyright © 2016, Moody’s Analytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Email us: [email protected] Or visit us: www.economy.com/csi

U.S./CANADA +1 866.275.3266

EMEA+44.20.7772.5454

ASIA/PACIFIC +852.3551.3077

OTHER LOCATIONS+1 610.235.5299

CONTACT US To find out how Case-Shiller Home Price Index forecasts can help meet your needs:

Email us: [email protected] Or visit us: www.economy.com/csi

U.S./CANADA +1.866.275.3266

EMEA+44.20.7772.5454

ASIA/PACIFIC +852.3551.3077

OTHER LOCATIONS+1.610.235.5299

CONTACT US To find out how Case-Shiller Home Price Index forecasts can help meet your needs:

Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts

Forecast DatabaseMonthly forecast updates to the single-family aggregate index for:

» The United States.

» All census regions and divisions.

» All U.S. states.

» All U.S. metropolitan areas and divisions.

» More than 400 U.S. counties.

» More than 6,000 U.S. zip codes

Coverage

Historical Database » Repeat-purchase indexes for all metro areas.

» Exclusive indexes for more than 130 markets, more than 400 counties, and more than 4,000 zip codes.

Both Datasets also include: » Three price tiers for more than 40 metropolitan areas.

» Condominium data for more than 35 metropolitan areas..

Data Access

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index forecasts can be retrieved via DataBuffet.com, the cutting-edge data delivery platform from Moody’s Analytics. DataBuffet.com is a robust, web-based data management tool that allows you to transform data, create charts and maps, and download data in many formats. It is also integrated into Microsoft Office for quick and easy implementation into your workflow. Charts and maps can be imported into Word, Excel or PowerPoint.

Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexavg annual % growth, 2013-2015

Sources: CoreLogic, FHFA, Moody’s Analytics

Above 5.33-5.30-3Less than zero

U.S. = 4.15

Case-Shiller® Home Price Index% change yr ago, 2012Q4

Sources: CoreLogic, FHFA, Moody’s Analytics

Above 10Between 4-10Below 4

U.S. = 7.4