Ccc Policy Carbon Emission

8/3/2019 Ccc Policy Carbon Emission

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Singapores Climate ChangePolicy and Carbon

Emissions

Natasha Hamilton-Hart


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OVERVIEW

Aims of Singapores strategy

Singapores emissions

Controversy over the data

Trends and projections

Sources of emissions

What would a responsible climate change

strategy for Singapore look like?


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Climate Change (the very

basics)Change in climate due to rising concentrations ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere

CO2 is main component accounting for rise

From ~285 ppm to 379 ppmDue to burning fossil fuels and loss of carbon stores

To have 50:50 chance of avoiding catastrophicchange, need to halve global emissions - stabilize at450 ppm

IPCC reports are lowest common denominator -450 ppm target rejected by many as too high

Basic science of emissions climate change is notin doubt


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SINGAPORES NATIONAL STRATEGY

SNCCS - Singapores National ClimateChange Strategy

Available online - chapter 3 on mitigation

Long list of initiativesWhat are the actual aims?

Not aimed at reducing emissionsIn line with Singapores international position

Fiction of being a developing country


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LOOKING GOOD: CO2 INTENSITY

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

CO2 INTENSITY


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LOOKING AT WHAT MATTERS:CO2 EMISSIONS

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

CO2 EMISSIONS -

KT


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WHY ENERGY INTENSITY ISIRRELEVANT

CO2 intensity: emissions per dollar of GDP

Fairly good measure of cost-efficiency of theeconomy

Terrible measure of impact on climate change!Climate change is driven by increasingconcentrations of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere

The CO2:GDP measure is an attempt to avoidresponsibility

(Singapore not the only one to use it - copying U.S.)


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SINGAPORES CO2

EMISSIONSHow many tonnes of CO2 emitted in2006?

MEWR: 41,522 kt (thousand tonnes)IEA: 43, 130 kt

EIA (US Department of Energy, Energy

Information Administration): 133,880 ktor 141,100 kt


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SHOULD BUNKER FUELS BEEXCLUDED?

Discrepancies due to exclusion of marine bunkerfuels

and sale of jet fuel for international aviation(MEWR)

Singapore: worlds largest marine bunkering centre:~ 21 million tonnes of bunker oil sold to ships c. 2003

Exclusion granted under UNFCCC

but the extra 100,000 kt of CO2 do not disappearfrom the atmosphere

bunkering, port and air hub role = significant part ofSingapores economy, profits - not free service torest of world


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Emissions Trends

MEWR: nearlydoubled 1990-2005

EIA: more thandoubled

MEWR: increasingat 2.8% per year

= 47% increasefrom 2006 by 2020 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 2000

Millions

of

metric

tonnes


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Sources: Transport

Transport: 19% of total emissions

Vehicle numbers up 3% per year since 1990(more than doubled)

2008: 894,682

733,235 if exclude motorbikes and buses

2009: quota to be reduced to 1.5% increase

p.a. = only 16% increase over next 10 yearsPerverse incentives in LTA strategies


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Sources: Electricity Generation

48% of total emissionsElectricity Generated by Natural Gas

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

19% 29% 44% 60% 69% 74% 78% 79%

Natural gas: 40% less CO2 than oil fuel

= switch to gas generation accounts formuch of increased CO2 efficiency to date

No further scope for ongoing reductions fromthis conversion

Power companies have no incentive toreduce electricity consumption!


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Carbon emissions from flying

vs. other transport


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BuildingConstruction is a CO2 polluting industry

Energy + cement production

2007: 116 en bloc sales

Better buildings?Install modern air conditioning - more efficient

In many cases, worse buildings

Higher light/heat absorptionLoss of natural airflow, shade

Must factor in emissions from constructionand materials


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Sshh the Oil Industry

Total crude oil refining capacity ~ 1.3 millionbarrels per day (bbl/d).

ExxonMobil: 605,000-bbl/d

Royal Dutch/Shell: 458,000-bbl/d

SPC: 273,000-bbl/d

EDB: Singapore needs one more..

Most refined product is exported but..Refining is a high emissions activity

Singapores stake in the oil industry


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What would a responsible

policy look like?It would be honestStop presenting fantasy of Singapore as adeveloping country

Stop presenting meaningless positiveindicators like CO2 intensity of GDP

Headline the bottom line: global CO2emissions must halve to avoid catastrophic

climate changeIn the next ten years


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Do Singapores EmissionsMatter?

Small part in global emissions

Why not free-ride?

(or make the most of sinking together)


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The Costs of Singapores

Rising EmissionsBeing part of the problem

No credibility in international negotiations

cannot call for others to make cuts

Disproportionate loss for international efforts

Singapore has more than 0.2% of the worlds

expertise, diplomatic skill and influence

Disastrous growth model for Asia


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Can Singapore Cut ItsEmissions?

Official stand: Singapores specialcircumstances mean it has no other options

small size, urbanized, industrialized

Emissions a function of:

1. population

2. GDP

3. Energy: GDP

4. CO2: Energy


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1. Population

rarely mentioned in connection withclimate change

official policy is to increasethe need for this increase is wide opento scrutiny

has not been rigorously examined ordefended


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2. GDP growth

Official policy rules out anything that might bringdown growth

Singapore c. 2007

GDP ($Sing): $243 billionPopulation 4.6 (total), 3.6 (residents)

Per capita GDP $67,500

In US$, PPP terms: $29,633 (UN); $52,000 (CIA)

However measured, there is scope to be moreconcerned about quality of growth and distribution ofGDP


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3. Energy : GDP ratio

Main target of the SNCCS

But very limited initiatives, often at cross-purposes with other trends

Much more scope to reduce energy use

Just a few examples..

do not need to increase private cars

or licence so many taxiscould make cycling far more attractive

huge potential to reduce electricity consumption


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4. CO2 : Energy Ratio

ie, shift away from fossil fuels

official policy is dismissive

this is prematurefew (no?) independent technical studies


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The bottom line..

Large global emissions cuts are necessary to avoidcatastrophic change

Cost of cutting emissions is relatively modest

Inaction due to the distribution of cuts and costs

Countries with very low per capita incomes and/ordysfunctional governments have a case that theyshould not/cannot cut

Singapore is neither poor nor lacking in capacity!

Contributing to international action means acceptingthe need for cuts in Singapores emissions

Singapore does have scope to reduce its emissions.. but it may mean letting go of some sacred cows

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