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CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 JuneCCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Future Ready? & What of the future? www.stephenarcher.eu
www.stephenarcher.euCCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
The market can remain irrational…
John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946
...for longer than you can remain insolvent.
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Europe : Free fall or Free of shackles?
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Fiscal Pact?
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Countries most exposed the Greek debt
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Government Deficit as % of GDP 2012
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
G8 Growth prospects
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
• Political Risk• Economic Structure• Economic Growth prospects• Fiscal Flexibility• General Government Debt burden• Offshore and contingent liabilities• Monetary Flexibility• External Liquidity• External Debt burden
S&P Sovereign Rating Criteria
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
It never rains but it …..
Wait for austerity to work?
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Conditions for an effective fiscal pact in Eurozone- Central fiscal autonomy- Central monetary autonomy- Central budgeting across all nations- Central political leadership- Regional and sustainable electorate acquiescence to the above…
Break up the Euro?
Options & end Game ?
- Greek exit - P & I exit- Total break up
60% 30% 10%
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
CONFIDENCE ISWHAT YOU HAVE
BEFOREYOU UNDERSTAND
THE PROBLEM!
WOODY ALLEN, 1935 -
The deficit reduction and outlook
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
‘Funding-for- lending’ =$80b + confidence boost
“You should do the mathematics but then burn the paper and write it down in words.
Maths and models should be ‘aids to thinking’, not substitutes for it”.
Alfred Marshall [the founder of Cambridge economics]
A few dark clouds
-Eurozone-Tools to trade with-Retail businesses-BRIC slow down
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
UK economic outlook for the next 12-18 months
• Growth• Unemployment• Inflation• House prices• Fiscal environment• Consumer activity • Confidence
1% 2.6m +2% +2% Hold Muted Improving
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Reasons to be cheerful ! • Collective will
• Forbearance• We are not in the Euro• Financial services will help GDP• Bank asset values• UK is seen as EU investment ‘safe haven’• Credit rating agencies approving UK• UK can cut expenditure and debt • George may fully wake up
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
What your firm can be doing
to prosper in the
current and future markets
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
•Vision•Strategy•Talent•Leadership
Future ready: 4 key Growth enablers
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
1. Where do you want your business to go?
2. Where are you now?3. What do you need to do to get
there?4. How can you do it?5. What are the opportunities (and
threats)6. What are the strengths (and
weaknesses)7. Who will make it happen....?
Your destination – defines your journey
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
The price challenge
Communicate & connect services to Value &
Outcomes
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Enable & create change & innovation (a non negotiable culture)
• Challenge the team• Empower the team• Establish unambiguous actions
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Service innovationsProduct innovations1. Treat your customers differently
– as well as better than anyone else
2. Present yourselves differently3. Create your Brand – knowingly4. Sharing and Giving5. Create discussions and projects
Five ways to differentiate your business
Ste
al w
ith
Pri
de
!
vt
“Some people change when they see the light, others only when they feel the heat.”
Anonymous
Achieving the Achievable
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June
Yes we can !
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June