Ch 10 Public Opinion and Political Socialization

8/18/2019 Ch 10 Public Opinion and Political Socialization

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Efforts to Influence Public

OpinionFederalist Papers were one of the first majorattempts to change public opinion

Thomas Paine’s Common Sense and TheCrisis

Uncle Tom’s Cabin

Fahrenheit 911

The Earliest Public OpinionResearch

As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predictelection winners using polls.

In 1883, the Boston Globe used exit polls to try topredict winners in presidential elections.

Walter Lippman’s Public Opinion (1922) looked

closely at how we measure public opinions.Public opinion polling as we know it today wasdeveloped in the 1930s


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The Earliest Public Opinion

ResearchIn 1916, Literary Digest mailed survey postcardsto potential voters in an attempt to predict theoutcome.

From 1920 to 1932, they predicted every presidentialelection correctly.

In 1936 when they predicted that Alf Landon would beatFDR. FDR won in a landslide, taking all but two states.

Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen ashighly problematic.

Is polling always accurate?


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The Gallup OrganizationThe Gallup Organization - successfully predicted the 1936election.

Founder George Gallup

Continued to be successful in predicting electoraloutcomes until the 2012 presidential election.

George GallupDissertation on how to measure the readership ofnewspapersExpanded research to study public opinion aboutpolitics

Increased use of polling to market products and candidates

How successful has the Gallup Poll been?


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The American National Election

StudiesFocuses on attitudes of the electorate

How voters votedParty affiliationOpinions of parties and candidatesSurveys before and after mid-term and presidentialelections

Polls - Designing the Surveyand Sample

Determining the content and phrasing ofthe questions

Wording is crucialPush Polls provide information on an opponent that would lead torespondents to vote against the candidate

Selecting the samplePopulationRandom sampling – each person has the same statisticalchance of being contactedStratified sampling – the best method…use Census dataand contact same number of each race, ethnicity, agerange, etc


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Polls - Contacting Respondents

Telephone pollsMost CommonRandom digit dialing survey by computersTracking polls people are polled 24 hours

In-person interviewsExit polls – interviews with voters after they cast theirvote on Election Day

Internet pollsSome polling companies have devised scientific

strategies to ensure that the results of Internet pollingare legitimate, but they aren’t to be confused with so-called Web polls that allow anyone to weigh in on atopic.

What does a daily tracking poll look like?


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Polls - Analyzing the Data

Reveals implications for public policy andpolitical campaignsData analyzed by computers

Subgroups of population, such as men versus women,age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed

Reporting the dataNews organizations or campaigns

Shortcomings of PollingSurvey Error

Margin of error - Natural errors in statistical measurement; 3-5% isconsidered a reasonably small rate of errorSampling error - Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample

Limited Response OptionYes/No (Approve/Disapprove) - May not give respondents sufficient roomto answer

“Feeling thermometer” - Respondents rate feelings 0-100Lack of Information

Filter questions - Gauge how much respondents know about or havethought about an issue

Feelings stronger about some issues

Many people lack an opinion on certain policiesPolicies that don’t affect people directlyPolicies that don’t involve moral values

Foreign policy - Less likely to generate interestDomestic policy - More likely to generate interest


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Forming Political OpinionsGender - Women historically more liberal than menRace and ethnicity - Differences among and within races and ethnicitiesAge affects political socializationReligion shapes political beliefsFamily influence - Children learn political beliefs at early agePeers are influential in middle or high schoolPolitical socialization in schoolThe Mass Media

Traditional news sources…Americans are turning away from themNontraditional news media…Talk radio, online magazines, blogsCable and Internet…Often skewed

Political leaders use media to influence publicPresident uses media as a bully pulpit

Political knowledge and political participation…Have a reciprocal effect oneach otherAmericans’ level of civic knowledge…Lower than 50 years agoGender gap…Also affected by education, number of children, and maritalstatus

Do men and women think differently aboutpolitical issues?


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What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students?

What is the extent of Americans’ politicalknowledge?


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The Effects of Public Opinion

on PoliticsPublic has become more of a criticalplayer in national and internationalpolitics

Polling a key part of that involvement

Documents

Ch 10 Public Opinion and Political Socialization