Chance Experiments

Review!

Monday Tuesday Wednesday

Thursday Friday

Chocolate Blueberry Poppy Seed Cranberry Chocolate

Spice Chocolate Chip

Banana Blueberry Poppy Seed

Pumpkin Chocolate Cranberry Spice Blueberry

Poppy Seed Banana Chocolate Chip

Cranberry Pumpkin

Blueberry Spice Poppy Seed Banana Cranberry

Patty has a muffin for breakfast everyday before school. The table below lists the different flavors she had for the entire month of March. What percentage of the muffins Patty ate were chocolate?

Total number of muffins = 25

Number of chocolate muffins = 3 ¿0.12=12%

Vocabulary• Chance experiment - situation whose ultimate outcome is uncertain.

• Sample Space- all possible outcomes

• Outcome- each possibility

Example: You flip a coin and it lands on heads

Chance Experiment: Flipping a coin

Sample Space: heads, tails

Outcome: heads

• Probability – the measure of how likely it is that an event will happen as the result of the chance experiment

Determine the experiment, sample space, and outcomes for the following situations. • Situation 1: You draw a green cube from a bag that has red, blue, yellow, and green

cubes.

Chance Experiment:

Sample Space:

Outcome:

• Situation 2: Your name is drawn from a raffle that 30 people entered.

Chance Experiment:

Sample Space:

Outcome:

Drawing a cube from a bag

Raffle drawing

Green cube

Red, blue, yellow, green

Names of people in the raffle (30 names)

Your name

Calculating Probability• Probability of an event E is denoted P(E)

- Probability of a coin landing on heads: P(heads)

• A probability is indicated by a number between and .

• Some events are certain to happen, while others are impossible. In most cases, the probability of an event happening is somewhere between certain and impossible.

Probability Scale

1 1/2 0

Probability Scale

Impossible Unlikely Equally Likely toOccur or Not Occur

Likely Certain

• A probability of 0, or 0%, means the event has no chance of

happening.

• A probability of 1/2 , or 50%, means the event is just as likely to happen as not to happen.

• A probability of 1, or 100%, means the event is certain to

happen.

Can you think of some examples of these different probabilities happening?

A. Your full name will be drawn when a full name is selected randomly from a bag containing the full names of all of the students in your class.

B. You will see a live dinosaur on the way home from school today.

C. A solid rock dropped in the water will sink.

D. A round disk with one side red and the other side yellow will land yellow side up when flipped.

E. A spinner with four equal parts numbered – will land on the on the next spin.

F. A red cube will be drawn when a cube is selected from a bag that has five blue cubes and five red cubes.

G. Tomorrow the temperature outside will be degrees.

Impossible Unlikely Likely to Occur Half of

the Time

Likely Certain

Data Collection Activity• For this activity you will need: – The student that sits next to you– A Data Collection Worksheet– 1 spinner per pair

• You need to complete questions 1-8 with your partner (you have about 15 minutes to do this).

• Instructions for the activity are on the worksheet but please ask if you have questions.

• While collecting data please be thinking about:–Where you would put the probability of winning the game on the Probability Scale…Impossible Unlikely Likely to

Occur Half of

the Time

Likely Certain

Probability

How to Find the Probability of an Event

Probability- how we measure the likelihood of an outcome of a chance event

P(event) = number of favorable outcomes

total number of possible outcomes

What is the probability of a coin landing on heads if you toss it in the air?

P(heads) = number of favorable outcomes = total number of possible outcome

P(heads) =

You roll a six-sided die whose sides are numbered from 1 through 6.

Find the probability of rolling a 1.

P (rolling a 1) = number of ways to roll a 1

number of ways to roll the die16=

Find the probability of rolling an odd number.Three outcomes correspond to rolling an odd number: rolling a 1,

3, or a 5.

P (rolling odd number) = number of ways to roll an odd number

number of ways to roll the die

3

612= =

Find the probability of randomly choosing a blue marble from the marbles shown at the right.

P (blue) = 310

There are 3 blue marbles.There are 10 marbles in all.

The probability of choosing a bluemarble is , 0.3, or 30%.3

10

ANSWER

Back to the Data Collection Activity

•Determine the chance experiment and sample space of the activity.–Chance experiment: –Sample Space:

• So what was the probability of winning?

• P(winning) = number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes

Example: P(winning) = 53%

Spinning the spinner1, 2, 3, 4