Changing Climate: Implications,

Responses and Vulnerability

(People’s Perspective)

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Nepal Engineering College

Vulnerability Concept (A Case of Lubhu, Nepal)

3

Methods: Capturing Local Perception on Changing Climate

Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)

Household Questionnaire Survey

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

FGD: A gradual increase in summer period after 1980s and large increase in the 2000s.

Summer Temper-

ature

Winter Temper-

ature

Extreme hot

summer days

Less cold winter

Cooler days

Extreme cold

winter

Hot days0

20

40

60

80

100

75.6

44.0

68.456.0

11.526.3

70.2

1.5

26.7

5.617.0

60.148.0

9.7

22.1 27.5 23.7 24.9 27.0 23.5 19.9

Increasing Decreasing Erratic Same

Perception on Changes in Attributes of Temperature

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

5

"Prior to 1980s, winter used to begin by Kartik (October/November) and the peak winter season months used to extend from November second week to mid February (Mangsir to Magh). In 2000s, winter began much later and ended earlier”

"Before 25/26 years, Thato, icy film used to form above water level on the ditches but now it has been 10-15 years, winter is not that cold"

"The maximum temperature has been rising in such a manner; I assume there won't be winter season during my grand-daughters period"

LOCAL STATEMENTS ON CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Findings Contd….

In 2000s, unusual changes in the pattern of rainfall, rainfall no more predictable

Changes in the rainfall pattern more stressful than the changes in the total annual rainfall

Winter Rain

Spring rain

No. of rainy

days in the

Mon-soon

Persis-tence in monsoon rainfall

Occur-rence of

dry spells

Flash floods re-sulting from

rainfall

Cloudy/fogy days in winter

Wind-stroms

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

1.5 2.0 3.1 3.0

46.7

6.9 3.315.7

84.5 79.4 77.6

50.9

22.2

77.0 85.4 66.1

4.6 8.4 4.3

32.4 3.8

0.30.5

0.5

8.9 9.7 13.7 10.1

18.411.7

10.516.4

Increasing Decreasing Erratic Same

Perception on Changes in Attributes of Rainfall

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

7

“Persistent rainfall lasting over days and nights (Sat din sat rat jhari, Shaune jahri , Shora Shraddha Jhari, Maghe jhari) was common prior to 1980s but has been declining over with larger decline in 2000s”

“The rainfall can no more be predicted now”

"There has been decrease in the annual rainfall. The dry spells are getting longer. Had there been winter rain, it would have recharged the spring sources!"

LOCAL STATEMENTS ON CHANGES IN RAINFALL

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Implications of Changing Climate

Water Surplus

Increase in crop production

Increased migration

Negative health impacts

Change in cropping pattern

Water insufficiency

Changes in timing of crop planting and harvesting

Decrease in crop production

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

4

6

23

34

56

59

65

76

Percentage

Con

seq

uen

ces

Social consequences of changes in climatic attributes

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

9Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Water Resources Natural spring sources adversely affected by rainfall

variability resulting decline in the yield of spring sources and stone spouts, and even complete vanishing

Decline in the number of seasonal springs that used to emerge following the monsoon season

Changes in water sources by compounded implications of climate change and urbanization

Implications of Climate Changing Climate Contd...

10

Local Statements on Weeds and Pests Occurrences"Due to increase in temperature, pests have

increased. Had there been frost by now, the pests would have died due to cold! Mosquito exist for almost entire year since last 3-4 years.”

Maobadi Jhar, Navo, Madila, Tantane, Pire (Polygonum barbatum), Mothe (Cyperus difformis), Baspate, Pani ghans appeared in rice field and progressively increased in 2000s.

"The road used to be covered with earthworms but since 4-5 years it has disappeared"

Implications of Climate Changing Climate Contd...

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

11Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Responses and Adaptive Practices

Drying of water sources: Ferrying of Water from Neighbors/ Neighboring VDCs and Reliance on the Market Solutions

Increasing number of dug wells at households

Capturing Roof Top Runoff

12Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Shift towards low water demanding crop varieties (Taichin-242 and Tainan- 176 to Khumal-4)

Declining wheat, increasing pea, barley, musur, soyabean Leaving the land fallow, leasing out land during winter; Deviation away from agriculture,

Responses and Adaptive Practices Contd….

Mustard and wheat saplings covered by straw for moisture

retention

Small farm based garden based on household

groundwater sources

13Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

Technological InnovationsInitiation of charging irrigation service fee

Wastewater Irrigation

Responses and Adaptive Practices Contd….

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment

• Based on five different capitals

• Eleven components and Fourty one sub-components/

indocators

• Calculated by Balanced Weighted Average Approach

• Each of the indicators is measured on a different scale

and need to standardize each as an index.

• The value of each component is calculated by using the

index value of concerned indicators.

• The range of LVI is scaled from 0 (least vulnerable) to 1

(most vulnerable).

Livelihood Vulnerability Index

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment (Based on IPCC Concept)

Vulnerability=(Exposure –Adaptive capacity) * Sensitivity

The values ranges from -1 (least vulnerable) to +1 (most vulnerable).

-0.12-0.1

-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02

0Jhaukhel

Dadhikot

Matatirtha

Lubhu

LVI-IPCC

• Growing impression among the local people on

the changing climate.

• Direct and indirect impacts of climate change

noticed by the local people.

• Adaptive strategies coming up at household level

and community level against the adverse

impacts of changes in climatic attributes.

• Lubhu, the most vulnerable VDC among the four

peri-urban sites.

Conclusion

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

The Way Forwards• Communicate the knowledge on the climatic

uncertainty to the local level.

• Exploring the local adaptation practices to

identify the strengths and weaknesses for

creating climate resilient community.

• Replicating the successful measures to

enhance and expand the climatic resilience of

wider community.

• Local level institutions and local community

can play major role and need to be

capacitated.

21

THANK YOU

Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization