Changing Demographics and Growth Patternsin Nebraska

Jerry DeichertUNO Center for Public Affairs Research

jdeicher@unomaha.edu 402-554-2134www.unomaha.edu/cpar www.facebook.com/unocpar

Nebraska Chamber of Commerce & Industry2014 Legislative Caucus/Annual Meeting

January 30, 2014 Lincoln, NE

Three Major Demographic Trends

1. Nebraska’s population is becoming more and more concentrated in its most populous counties.

2. The state’s population is getting older and will continue to age.

3. The state’s population is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse

State Population Summary

• In 2010, Nebraska had a population count of 1,826,341 persons, an increase of 115,076 or 6.7 percent from the 2000 count of 1,711,265

– Nebraska ranked 30th in percentage change (an increase from 37th in 1990s)

• Nebraska’s growth rate of 6.7 percent in the 2000s was not as strong as the 8.4 percent rise seen in the 1990s

– However, it did exceed the average decade growth rate between 1950 and 2000 (5.3 percent)

– Congressional District boundaries were redrawn by the Unicameral Legislature

• In 2013, Nebraska’s population was 1,868,516 – +2.3% since 2010 (ranks 26th)– Compares to 2.4% national growth rate

3

4

5

2000-2010 Changes for Nebraska’s Congressional Districts

District 2000 2010 Change Percent Change

NE-1st 570,421 626,092 + 55,671 + 9.8%

NE-2nd 570,421 638,871 + 68,450 + 12.0%

NE-3rd 570,421 561,378 - 9,043 - 1.6%

Average district size based on 2010 census is 608,780District VS. average Effect of RedistrictingNE-1st +17,312 Gained territory from 2nd

district &lost

territory to 3rd districtNE-2nd +30,091 Lost territoryNE-3rd - 47,402 Gained territory

7

1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

11.8

8.7

6.3

-4.5

0.7

6.5

5.25.7

0.5

8.4

6.7

Nebraska Population Change Rate by Decade: 1900s to 2000s

Decade

Popu

latio

n Ch

ange

Rat

e (a

s a

perc

ent o

f to

tal p

opul

atio

n at

sta

rt of

dec

ade)

Source: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census BureauPrepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

8

1925

1927

1929

1931

1933

1935

1937

1939

1941

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Nebraska Population and Population Change, 1925-2013

Population Change Population

1985-1987

PopulationPopulation

Change

Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

County Population Summary

• 24 Nebraska counties gained population while 69 lost population between 2000 and 2010

– Compares to 40 growing counties in the 1990s and only 10 in the 1980s

– 23 counties lost 10% or more of their population between 2000 and 2010

• Nebraska’s 3 most populous counties, Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy counties are among the state’s fastest growing

– Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy accounted for 52.6 percent of Nebraska’s population in 2010, up from 48.9 percent in 2000

– These 3 counties grew 14.9 percent between 2000 and 2010 while the remaining 90 counties lost 1.1 percent

9

County Population Summary (Continued)

• Metropolitan (2013 definition) counties added population, but nonmetropolitan counties lost population– Metropolitan

13.0%– Nonmetropolitan

-2.5%• Micropolitan

1.3%• Largest city 2,500 to 9,999 persons -4.4%• Largest city under 2,500 persons -7.7%

• Nebraska’s legislative districts also were redrawn with metro areas gaining more representation.

– Average legislative district size based on 2010 Census is 37,272 persons.

– Legislative district 49 was moved from Northwest Nebraska to Sarpy County. 10

Center for Public Affairs Research 11

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010300,000

450,000

600,000

750,000

900,000

1,050,000

1,200,000

Total Population for Nebraska Metro and Nonmetro Counties (2013 Definitions): 1890 - 2010

Metro counties (13) Nonmetro counties (80)

Dece

nnia

l Cen

sus P

opul

ation

Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau; 2013 OMB metro definitions

Compiled and Prepared by: UNO Center for Public Affairs Research

673,123

1,153,218

681,699

377,211

12

• Impact of the 2010 Census on redistricting

Douglas 14 districts fully within its borders

Lancaster 7 fully in2 partially inSarpy 4 fully in1 partially in

Prior to redistricting

Douglas 11 districts fully within its borders

4 partially inLancaster 6 fully in2 partially inSarpy 3 fully in4 partially in

Natural Change

• Natural Change = Births - Deaths• 2012 births were 25,939

– Slight increase from 2011 which was 3rd year of decline

– 2011 was lowest number since 2002• 2000 to 2010

– Much of the decade population growth stemmed from about 109,500 more births than deaths

– The 2000s “natural change” rate of 6.4 percent was higher than the 1990s (5.4 percent)

– 44 counties had more deaths than births

14

1920

1922

1924

1926

1928

1930

1932

1934

1936

1938

1940

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Nebraska Births, Deaths, and Natural Change: 1920-2012

Births Deaths Natural Change

Number

Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services

Baby Boom1946-1964

Generation YBaby Boom Echo

Millennials 1977-1994(?)

Generation ZInternet Generation

1995(?)+

Number

Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services

Generation XBaby Bust1965-1976

Silent Generation1925-1945

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Net Migration

• 2010 to 2013 inmigration was 7,322– International 10,357– Domestic -3,035

• 2000 to 2010– The state experienced a net inmigration of about 5,600 persons – The 2000s net migration rate of 0.3 percent was below a 3.1 percent

inmigration in the 1990s– The 1990s and 2000s are the only decades since 1930 to have net

inmigration– Only 14 counties had net inmigration

• 1990 to 2000– Added about 48,000 persons during the decade (3.1 percent)– 42 counties had net inmigration or no net outmigration

17

18

1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

-6.6

-12.7

-9.8

-8.7

-5.2

-0.9

-6.4

3.1

0.3

Nebraska Net Migration Rate by Decade: 1920s to 2000s

Decade

Mig

ratio

n Ra

te (a

s a

perc

ent o

f to

tal p

opul

atio

n at

sta

rt of

dec

ade)

Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau; Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human ServicesPrepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

1925

1927

1929

1931

1933

1935

1937

1939

1941

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Nebraska Components of Population Change, 1930-2013

Net Migration Natural Change

Pers

ons 1991-1999

Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census BureauVital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services

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Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

2010 Nebraska Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group

Percent of Total Population

FemaleMale

Age Group

Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census BureauGreen lines depict the depression cohort; red checker shows the "baby boom"; pink represents the "baby boom echo"; pink crosshatch shows the "3rd wave"

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All ages

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

6.7

12.7

4.4

-4.8

-4.4

7.4

15.2

4.4

-15.1

-17.4

4.7

26.4

51.7

49.3

15.9

-3.6

-3.2

9.4

15.8

Percentage Change for 5-Year Age Groups in Nebraska: 2000 to 2010

Percent ChangeSources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

Age Group

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

406

500 507

447429

450 459472

483501

515

Population and Population Projections for the Nebraska Popu-lation Aged Under 18 Years: 1950 to 2050

Num

ber o

f per

sons

in th

ousa

nds

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

789747

792

917 926

1029

1120 1143 11531205

1255

Population and Population Projections for the Nebraska Popu-lation Aged 18 to 64 Years: 1950 to 2050

Num

ber o

f per

sons

in th

ousa

nds

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

130

164184

206223

232247

325

419

448

471

Population and Population Projections for the Nebraska Popu-lation Aged 65 Years or Older: 1950 to 2050

Num

ber o

f per

sons

in th

ousa

nds

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013

Total population

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

6.2

1.2

-0.8

7.1

2.8

-0.7

2.2

9.7

13.6

2.6

-15.5

-16.8

5.3

28.6

55.2

51.3

18.2

0.5

9.1

Percentage Change in Nebraska Population by 5-year Age Group: 2010-20

Percent

Age

grou

p

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Censuses;Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013

Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin

• Nebraska’s population growth is predominately in minority racial and ethnic groups– Hispanic or Latino (of any race) grew by 77 percent

• Accounted for nearly two-thirds of state’s overall growth– The White, non Hispanic population barely increased (0.4%)

• In 2010, Minority population was 17.9 percent of total– Up from 12.7 in 2000 and 7.4 percent in 1990

• Minority population is much younger– Relatively more under 40– Relatively fewer 40+

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Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Change 2000-2010

• Total population 6.7 percent• Not Hispanic/Latino Origin 2.6 percent

– White alone 0.4 percent– African American or Black alone 19.9 percent– American Indian & Alaska Native alone 9.9 percent– Asian alone 47.2 percent– Nat. Hawaiian, Pac. Islander alone 49.3 percent– Some other race alone 59.5 percent– Two or more races 60.6 percent

• Hispanic/Latino Origin 77.3 percent• Minority 50.7 percent

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29

Hispanic or Latino; 9.2%

White NH alone; 82.1%

Black or African American NH alone; 4.4%

American Indian and Alaska Native NH alone; 0.8%

Asian NH alone; 1.7%Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander NH alone;

0.1%Some Other Race NH alone;

0.1%Two or More Races NH; 1.6%

Nebraska Population by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin as a Per-centage of Total Population: 2010

Note: NH is Not Hispanic or LatinoSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census

2010 Nebraska Population by Five-Year Age Group:Non-White or Hispanic/Latino (Minority Population) as a Percent of State Total

17.9

30.8

28.2

25.6

23.3

21.9

21.9

20.7

13.3

11.0

9.2

8.0

7.0

6.3

5.2

4.0

3.0

17.9

22.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Total

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

Percent of Total Population

Age Group

Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau, AFF tables P12 and P12ICompiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

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