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New Zealand 2040: Changing PeopleChanging Transport
Global trends are impacting the delivery of transport solutions
Jonathan Slason, PETransportation Engineer at Beca (www.beca.com)
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Beca or any other organisation or agency.
Further detail behind the issues raised is available by contacting [email protected]
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What moral, ethical, and social objectives do we adhere to?
Agreement on fundamental quality of life issues
Social Equality & Social Mobility
Inter-generational
Socioeconomic
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2040 and beyond
Assess
Aging population
Urbanised
Population growth
Freight and export focus
Climate change
Fossil fuel cost increases
System design
& Spatial form
Inputs Inform
Probability
Identify risks
Effect
Manage
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Population Growth
Area 2006 2041 IncreasePercentage
Increase
Auckland Region 1,371,000 2,156,100 785,100 57
Hamilton City 134,400 198,400 64,000 48
Tauranga City 106,900 173,300 66,400 62
Wellington City 187,700 253,200 65,500 35
Greater Christchurch 414,300 535,900 121,600 29
New Zealand 4,184,600 5,401,800 1,217,200 29
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Inputs: Freight
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Input: Climate Change
Sources:Meinshausen Potsdam Climate Research, Denmark.
Raw data: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/comparl/tempcom/clim/sessions/20070910/meinshausen_en.pdf
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Inputs: Transport Energy
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What do these inputs tell us
Climate, energy, and costs will affect system resiliency Infrastructure costs will increase Economic activity will be increasingly urban centric Population and economic activity will grow Demand for mixed use, urban living with high amenity Access and mobility- with less cost, carbon, and
energy
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Transportation responses to demographic trends
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Aging Population: Likely Transport Trends
Less likely to purchase more efficient car or utilise newest technology
Less individual driving trips (and more likely to be involved in crashes)
More (short) walking trips More non-driver trips more public transport and taxi
Will often avoid making trips because of inadequate transport options
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Aging Population: Travel Mode Choice
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Urbanisation
Percent
Less than -0.75
-0.75 to -0.01
0 to 0.75
0.76 to 1.50
Greater than 1.50
Percent
Less than -0.75
-0.75 to -0.01
0 to 0.75
0.76 to 1.50
Greater than 1.50
Forecasts from 2006 - 2031
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Urbanised: Transport
Increasing proximity to goods, services, and people Increased competition for space
Per capita energy and CO2 can reduce
Travel options increase with less distance required
Challengemaintain quality mobility while enabling the accessibility that density provides
Mobility and Accessibility
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Quality Transport – Chicken and Egg
You build it and they will come
Show me the money
(or the demand)
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Urbanised: Housing
No McMansions for Millennials
“Here’s what Generation ‘Y’ doesn’t want: formal living rooms, soaker bathtubs, dependence on a car.In other words, they don’t want their parents’ homes.”
Demographic shifts and changing values will increase demand for pedestrian-friendly, mixed-use communities in both urban and suburban settings, according to John McIlwain of the Urban Land Institute.
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Housing needs
Baby boomers are downsizing
Generation Y have different needs and preferences than their parents did at their age
Both want homes in walkable transit-oriented economically dynamic job-rich neighbourhoods Affordable
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Urbanised: Social Equality
If 25% increase in transport
costs
Get 27% increase in financial housing
stress
51% of all 2026 renters in financial
housing stress
=
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Households in drivable suburban neighbourhoods devote on average 24 percent of their income to transportation; those in walkable neighbourhoods spend about 12 percent.
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Investigating Transport Options
Source: adapted from R. Tolley and B. Turton (1995), p. 63.
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Investigating Transport Options
Source: adapted from R. Tolley and B. Turton (1995), p. 63.
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Energy Efficient Transport
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Patterns of Density affect energy
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Transport solutions
Focus on provision of long-term, cost-effective infrastructure investments
Supply non-car alternatives Implement demand controls on existing high priority routes to
enable efficient movement of high value goods and services Land use is crucial to unlock the full potential of public
transport and active modesNZ urban land re-development will lead the show
Review of housing types and strategies for housing development and diversity of sizes
Inclusionary zoning and density bonuses
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Solutions: Supply Provision
Infrastructure Provision Funding commission for innovative
finance Whole-of-life investment decisions Decrease climate change and oil
availability risks to system Review moral, ethical, and social
objectives to provide appropriate infrastructure
Long-term thinking is needed – the infrastructure will be here to stay
Appian Way, Italy. ~2000 years old
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Transport that enables a quality lifestyle
People
Services
Goods
Point A to Point B
Aging population
Urbanised
Population growth
Freight and export focus
Climate change
Fossil fuel cost increases
Iss
ue
s
