Chapter-08 ,HR Demand

8/2/2019 Chapter-08 ,HR Demand

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HR Demand


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HR Demand TechniquesQualitative HR Demand Techniques

( descriptive)

Quantitative HR Demand Techniques( past / historical data analysis)


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Forecasting TechniquesA. Trend analysis

B. Expert Forecasts

C. Delphi TechniqueD. Nominal Group Technique

E. HR Budgets: Staffing or Manning Table

F. Envelope/ Scenario Forecasting

G. Regression Analysis


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Examine the relationship between operationalbusiness index and the demand for labor( HR)

Indexes like sales, number of unitsproduced, clients served etc.

Demand for labor means HR/ staff.

A. Trend analysis


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Steps of Intex/Trend

Analysis1) Select the appropriate business/operational

index(sales, number of units produced,clients served etc. )

2) Track the business index over time ( years,months or days or period)

3) Track the workforce size over time ( staff or

HR)4) Calculate the average ratio of the business

index (sales)to the workforce size(HR)

5) Calculate the forecasted demand for labor


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Problem( index analysis)Year (t) Sales ($

thousands) (y)Number of employees

(y)Index

Sales ( $ thousands peremployee)

2002 $2800 155 18.06

2003 3050 171 17.83

2004 3195 166 19.25

2005 3300 177 18.64( latest ratio)

2006 Forecasted 3500 ?



i


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Calculating aand b

b =n (ty) - t y

n t 2 - ( t) 2

a =y - b t

n

Ft = a + bt

Linearprogramming


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Year (t) Sales ($thousands)

(y)

tyt2

2002 $2800 5605600 4008004

2003 3050 6109150 4012009

2004 3195 6402780 4016016

2005 3300 6015000 4020025

t=8014 y=12345 ty=24132530 t2=16056054

b = n (ty) - t yn t 2 - ( t) 2

a =

y - b tn

b=4(24132530)-(8014)

(12345)/3(16056054)-(8014)2=96530120-98932830/48168162-64224196=-2402710/-16056034=.149645298=.15

a= 11142.9/3=3714.3


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Calculating a and bFt = a + bt

F2006 =3714.3+.15(2006)

=3714.3+300.9

=4015.2

F2007= 3714.3+.15(2007)

= 4015.35


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B) Expert forecastIt is a qualitative process for determining

future labour requirements

The experts are :Line managerswho have details knowledge

about workload, responsibilities and overall taskresponsibilities

Org. own HR and business planning staffs: theyuse econometric and strategic models to predictfuture growth of company and economy

Business consultants, financial analysts,university researchers , union staff members.

Local governmental staff.HR manager may take help Experts from outside


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C) Delphi techniqueA carefully designed program of Sequential

,individual interrogations ( usually conductedthrough questionnaires) interspersed /scatter with information feedback on theopinions expended by the other participantsin previous rounds

Project coordinator collect information fromindividual employee then they forecast


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Technique

1) Define and refine the issue or question

2) Identify the experts, terms and time horizon

3) Orient the experts: the experts are told eitherthat there will be a predetermined number ofquestionnaire that that the sequence will

continue until a majority option exist amongthe experts

4) Issue the first-round questionnaire: projectcoordinator sends questionnaire to the experts.

This is particularly his or her own particulardemand estimate.

5) Issue the first-round questionnairesummary and the second round of

questionnaire.


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Disadvantages of Delphi

TechniqueLong time

Increase cost

Results cant be validated statistically

If experts are from one specific fieldforecasting will be unreliable

If insufficient attention is paid to developcriteria, experts forecasting will not carrymeaning


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D) Nominal Group Technique

It is long- run forecasting technique utilizingexpert assessments .

Steps :1) Define and refine the issue or question

and the relevant time horizon2) Select the experts3) Issue the HR demand statement to the

experts4) Apply expert knowledge, state

assumptions, and prepare an estimate5) Meet face to face6) Discuss the demand estimates and

assumptions7) Vote secretly to determine the expert

demand assessment


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E) HR Budgets: Staffing or ManningtableQuantitative, operational, or short-run, demand

estimates that contain the number and typesof personnel ( personnel classes such as bankclerks, loans officers, and branch managers)required by organization as a whole and for eachsub- unit, division, or department.

Prepared by HR staff in conjunction with linemanagers

Considers historical staffing trendsCompetitors staffing practices

Industry and professional associationsStatistics


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BudgetStaff demandRequirements

Sales( $ millions)

Administrativepositions

$1-10 $10-25 $25-50 $50-75

President 1 1 1 1

VP 1 1 2 3

Marketing managers 1 1 2 2

Sales staff 4 7 10 18

HR staff 2 4 5 7

Treasurer 1 1 1 2

Financial Staff 3 5 7 9

Clerical and general Staff 5 8 12 14

ProductionPositions

Executive chef 1 1 5 6

Cook 8 15 25 35

helper 10 20 30 40


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F) Regression Analysis

Presupposes that a linear relationship existsbetween one or more independent variables whichare predicted to affect the dependent variable.

The simple regression prediction model is asfollows:

Y=A + BX

Where , Y = dependent variable( HR demand /number of personnel required)

A = constant ( intercept)

B= the slope of the linear relationship between X andY

X= independent variable ( level of sales, production


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Calculating A and B

B =

N (xy) - y

N x2 - ( x) 2

B =y - B x

N

x

Y= A+ BX


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Problem-01X

Sales Level ( $ Millions)Y

Number of Marketingpersonnel

2.0 20

3.5 32

4.5 42

6.0 55

7.0 66

1. Calculate the Number of Marketing personnel equation. A=.82, B=9.17

2. For $8 million of sales ( x=8) , how many staff are required ? Ans: 74

3. For $10 million of sales ( x=10) , how many staff are required ? Ans:93


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Problem-02X

Dating Contracts ( $thousands)

YCustomer ServiceRepresentatives

1.5 9

2.0 14

3.0 21

3.8 25

4.2 27

1. Calculate the Customer Service Representatives equation.2. For $ 5000 dating contracts , how many Customer Service

Representatives are required ?1. For $7000 dating contracts, how many Customer Service Representatives

are required ?


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Thanksfor

attending this session

Documents

Chapter-08 ,HR Demand