Chapter 5

Public Opinion and Political Socialization

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WSU ESSAY #3

Public Opinion•From the time we are born, many things shape our political attitudes and beliefs. Discuss how our opinions are formed. What aspect of political socialization do you believe has the biggest impact on opinions? Why?

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Ch. 5 Scenario #1Read page 138-139 intro on the Death Penalty. What is your opinion about the death penalty? Does it deter people from killing? Explain.

Death Penalty Poll For Class The recent execution of Troy Davis proves

the death penalty should be abolished. Lethal Injection is more humane than

electrocution, asphyxiation, gas chamber, or hanging.

Stoning or beheading is acceptable forms of punishment.

Discussion.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9dXYr9tDYQ

Public Opinion Public opinion about the death penalty

a good example of how opinions affect policymaking.

Public Opinion: the collective attitudes of citizens concerning a given issue or question.

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The Death Chamber

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Alabama electric chair, an option for death in 9 states. Lethal injection is used in the vast majority of executions. The chair shows the ultimate power that government has to control behavior.

Characteristics of Public Opinion

Opinions about a given government policy can change over time, often dramatically

Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policies

If asked, citizens will give opinions about matters with which they have no experience

Governments tend to respond to public opinion The government sometimes does not do what people

want

Read examples on page 138-1397

Public Opinion and Models of Democracy

Opinion polling dates from the 1930s Not a powerful research tool until

computers invented in 1950s Founders built public opinion into

structure of government by allowing direct election of representatives to the House and apportioning representation there by population

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Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone

Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample of a population selected by chance is representative of that population

Three factors affect accuracy of sample: Must be chosen randomly Larger samples more accurate Greater variation in population means

greater chance for differences in ability to predict

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Accurate Polling Most national opinion polling

organizations poll 1,500 individuals Accurate within 3 percentage points 95%

of the time Even this small margin of error can mean

incorrect predictions in close elections Polls can be wrong because of biased

question wording or superficial responses

Look at current polls: http://www.pollingreport.com

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Public Opinion and Democracy

Majoritarian model of democracy holds government should do what a majority of the people want Around 70% of Americans think majority

opinion should have a great deal of influence on politicians

Pluralist model of democracy believes democracy requires free expression of opinions by minority groups Public as a whole rarely demonstrates

clear, consistent opinions

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Public Opinion and Democracy

Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under majoritarian model

Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not always reflect public opinion

Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against majority opinion (prayer at graduation – 75%)

Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent public opinion about public policies

Pluralist model sees public uninformed and inconsistent about specific issues

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Gallup Poll

Accuracy

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• Started by George Gallup in 1930s.

• Predictions of presidential elections overall pretty accurate. See year 2000.

• 1948 – Truman not expected to win.

• 1992- Perot not included in poll, explaining overestimate of Clinton.

Stop the Presses! Oops, Too Late….

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The Most Embarrassing Headline in American Politics:•Polling was still new in the 1948 election. •Early polls showed Republican Thomas Dewey far ahead. •Most organizations stopped polling weeks before the election. •The Chicago Daily Tribune proclaimed Dewey’s victory before the votes were counted.•The few polls taken closer to election day showed Truman catching up to Dewey.

The Distribution of Public Opinion

To understand and act on public opinion, government must understand how it is distributed

Distribution of public opinion falls into three patterns: Skewed Bimodal Normal

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Distribution Models for Public Opinion

Description of public opinion results depends on mode, or most frequent response Skewed distributions have most

respondents with one opinion Bimodal distributions have two answers

chosen with about equal frequency Normal distributions are bell-shaped along

a continuum, requiring a moderate approach to policymaking

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Figure 5.2

Three Distributions of Opinion

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Stability of the Distribution

Stable distributions have little change over time When same question produces

different responses over time, public opinion has shifted

When different questions on same issue produce similar results, underlying attitudes stable

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Ideological Distributions

Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed towards conservatism Since 1992, slightly more

conservatives and fewer moderates Changes in subgroups, such as

college students, may not be reflected in general population

Opinions about controversial issues can change dramatically over time

In 1958, 4% of Americans approved of interracial marriage. By 2007, 77% approved. 19

Figure 5.3 Are Students More

ConservativeThan Their Parents?

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Researchers at UCLA have been polling political orientation of entering freshman. In contrast to the American public, college students increasingly describe themselves as more liberal than they did in the mid 1980s.

Political Socialization Values acquired through political

socialization Most people exposed to same sources of

influence, or agents of socialization Family School Community Peers The media (Chapter 6)

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Political socialization = the complex process by which people acquire their political values

Your Political Socialization Scenario #2 Write down and discuss with a partner:

What is your earliest memory of a president? When did you first learn about political parties? If you identify with a party, how did you decide to

do so? If you do not, identify with a party, why not? Who was the first liberal or conservative you

ever met? 22

The Agents of Early Socialization

Fundamental principles of early learning: The primacy principle: what is learned first

is learned best. The structuring principle: what is learned

first structures later learning. The extent of any socializing agent

depends on our exposure to it, communication with it, and receptivity to it

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Family Important agent of socialization, because

most people learn first from family Learn wide range of values If parents interested, learn to be politically

interested and informed If both parents identify with one political

party, kids tend to also identify with it Religion stronger socialization than party

because of regular activities, exposure, care

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Children imitate their parents

Family More than ½ of young American

voters identify with part of parents If they change partisanship, generally

it is from being partisan to independent (or independent to partisan) than converting from one party to another

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School Some believe schools have equal or greater

influence on political learning as parents Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s

slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior, and national pride

In high school, kids learn to distinguish between political leaders and political institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the political process

College courses may teach students to question dominant political values and stimulate critical thinking

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Community and Peers Community makeup determines how

political opinions of members formed Homogeneous communities exert strong

pressures to conform Peer groups sometimes can provide

defense against community pressures Adolescent and college peer groups

sometimes clash against parental opinion

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Continuing Socialization

Political socialization a lifelong process

Adults rely more on peer groups and the media for political information

Adults gain perspective on government as they grow older Values change reflecting own self-

interest Social Security

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Word of God?

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2008 poll about the Bible

•38% - actual word of God•44% - inspire by God but not taken literally•18% - ancient book of history, stories, moral precepts

•Those who believed it is the actual word of God strongly favored government action to limit abortion and to support teaching creationism in public schools.

Social Groups and Political Values

Each person’s political socialization unique However, people with similar backgrounds

tend to have similar political opinions Questions from the 2008 National

Election Study (ANES) about abortion and the government guaranteeing employment good illustration

42% against abortion and 52% for government involvement in jobs

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Figure 5.4 How Groups Differ on Two

Questions of Order and Equality

31Freedom vs. Order Freedom vs. Equality

These two graphs show how respondents in several social groups deviated from the national mean for each question.

Education

Education increases awareness and understanding of political issues With regard to abortion, college-

educated individuals tend to choose personal freedom over social order

With regard to government programs to reduce income inequality, those with more education tend to choose personal freedom over equality

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Income

Most Americans consider themselves to be “middle class” Wealth linked to opinions favoring a

limited government role in promoting equality, somewhat less with order

Groups with more income and higher education value freedom

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Region

Historically, regional differences in political opinion important Fed by differences in wealth

Today, those in the South and Midwest more likely to favor restricting abortion

Those in the Northeast and West more supportive of government programs for income equalization

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Race and Ethnicity

Historically, those of different races and ethnicities have tended to differ in their political values Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s

tended to favor Democratic party African-Americans initially Republican, but

later Democratic (95% voted Obama) Minority groups favor equality Latinos favor abortion restrictions more

than other groups.

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Religion

Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable since 1940s Today, population 56% Protestant, 22%

Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less than 2% Jewish (among 9% “other”)

Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes about social order Look at attitudes about abortion, death

penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research, human cloning, and the teaching of evolution or creationism

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Gender

Men and women differ on many social and political issues Women more likely to favor equality Look at abortion, affirmative action,

government spending on social programs, death penalty, and going to war

“Gender gap” means women tend to favor Democrats

56% women voted Obama. Only 43% voted McCain.

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The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion

Some believe terms liberal and conservative no longer adequate However, political analysis requires

categories Most people don’t think of

themselves in ideological terms

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Political ideology = set of values and beliefs a person holds about government.

The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion

Differences in liberals and conservatives used to be based on opinions about the role of government (Liberals More; Conservatives Less)

Today, liberals associated with change and conservatives with tradition Liberals more likely to trade freedom for equality Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for

order Liberals = support govt action on economic policies.

Conservatives = support govt action on social policies.

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Figure 5.5Respondents Classified by Ideological

Tendencies

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2008 election surveySame survey on abortion and government induced equality as previously mentioned. People’s responses to the two questions showed no correlation, demonstrating that these value choices cannot be explained by a one-dimensional liberal-conservative continuum. The pie charts in the center show the proportion of each group self-describing themselves as liberal, moderate, or conservative.

Ideological Types in The U.S.

People’s preferences for government action depend on what the action targets

Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves the same way their responses do

Ideological tendencies reflect differences between different social groups Communitarians prominent among blacks/Latinos/no high

school degree Liberals prominent in the West region Women tend toward Liberal; men toward Libertarian

Many Americans liberal on some issues and conservative on others. They usually opt for the middle category.

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2009 Pew Research Center:•Asked citizens around the world if they had favorable view of U.S.•Many respondents had unfavorable view of U.S.•But majority expressed admiration for U.S. science and technology.•Respondents said they like U.S. movies, music, and television.

Forming Political Opinions

Studies show at least half of Americans knowledgeable about government and politics Some groups much less knowledgeable

(women, blacks, poor, young) than others (men, white, affluent, older)

No ideological distinctions between lib/cons. Most people know if a policy will directly

help or hurt them Self-interest principle Some use decision making “short cuts” (ex:

political party labels) 43

Political Leadership Public opinion on specific issues affected

by public perception of political leaders See examples on page 168

Politicians make arguments based on shared ideology and self-interest Issue framing or “spin”: Ex: death panels

vs. lack of health insurance Politicians’ ability to influence public

opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast media

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WSU ESSAY #3

Public Opinion•From the time we are born, many things shape our political attitudes and beliefs. Discuss how our opinions are formed. What aspect of political socialization do you believe has the biggest impact on opinions? Why?

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• Political socialization: students should be able to use the word political socialization properly. They should understand that it is a process that begins when a person is a child and continues throughout life. They should differentiate political socialization from other forms of socialization.

• Agents of political socialization: they should mention the major agents of political socialization, for example school, the family, friends primarily. They can also mention other groups such as churches, social organizations or school groups.

• Political culture: they should be familiar with this term, that is increasingly becoming important in studies of public opinion. They should define it in their own words, but at least mention that it is a set of beliefs, attitudes and behaviors that people have towards politics and the political system. What political values are important for democracy (i.e. tolerance, respect for the law, belief in the established procedures, etc.)

• Influence of public opinion on politics: they should be able to discuss why is public opinion important, how can public opinion shape political decisions and policy-making.

• Importance of political knowledge: they should discuss why is it important for citizens to be well informed, or at least somewhat informed about politics. What is the impact of politics on their lives, what is the effect of not participating. They should particularly focus on why young people should be aware of their political environment.

• Ideology and beliefs: they should have a minimum understanding of the major divisions between conservatives and liberals, and the division of ideology into social conservatives, economic conservatives, social liberals and economic liberals. How can you define each of those groups? What differentiates one from the other?

• Sources of public opinion: they should be familiar with some places where current and RELIABLE public opinion data can be found. For instance Pew Research and Gallup. They should be aware that public opinion data must be scientific, that a sample of 1,000 is statistically reliable and that some polls may be biased.

Exceeds expectations Student addresses 6 or 7 of these pointsMeet expectations student addresses 3 to 5 of these pointsDoes NOT meet expectationstudent addresses fewer than 3 of these points 46